Dealing for Ubaldo
by Bart41 on Jul 20, 2011 10:17 AM EDT
Email
PrintThere's no doubt we're short-term sellers, but Ubaldo is a great longer term buying opportunity. If baseball reference's contract numbers are correct, Ubaldo's contract going forward is 4.2M, 5.75M, and 8M for 2012 - 2014, respectively.
I think this is the type of risk we need to take. We need to start turning prospects into players and a trade like this is how it happens. Dealing for Ubaldo doesn't blow up this team contending, it pushes us closer toward it. His contract locks him in until 2014 and does so at a very favorable price. Signing a comparable pitcher on the open market this (or next) offseason would cost probably close to 3x more and could be a significant albatross payroll-wise going forward. As the many "what does having the best farm system mean?" posts have explained, it basically means we have the pieces. What separates the great teams from the failures is how they use those pieces. Deals need to be made. Why not make this one?
75 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I don't think it would be especially wise
But it wouldn’t be that stupid either. I think there is an overvaluing of prospects right now and Ubaldo is a fairly known, fairly cheap quantity and is an elite pitcher.
The only thing that gives me pause is the struggles he had at the beginning of the year and the shift to the AL. If we were anywhere near .500, I’d be enthusiastically for something like this. But when we are so far back, what difference is Ubaldo going to make? We had Greinke and still stunk. If we trade Duffy and Odorizzi that could be two guys that help us get back to contention.
Maybe we get off to a decent start and make a run at Ubaldo next year if he’s truly available (a lot of people think Dan O’Dowd is merely trolling to find out what other teams are willing to give up). But when we’re still this far behind I’m not sure it makes that much sense.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
the point of getting him now...
is so contention next year, 2013, and 2014 is more realistic.
But isn't that only realistic
Depending on whether our young guys develop or not? Ubaldo seems to be a guy that can help you go from .500 to semi-contender. But he alone can’t bring us to the next level – we’ll need lots of young guys producing, and sacrificing 3-4 of those guys for him seems like a bad move.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
your best hope is that one of Duffy/Odorizzi...
turns out to be as good as Ubaldo. Why not just trade them for the real deal?
What if both Duffy and Odorizzi
End up not as good as Ubaldo, but pretty solid starting pitchers? You’d trade two pretty good starting pitchers with six years of service time for one excellent one with three years of service time?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
worth it.
ace production is a rare commodity. and the odds of getting the full 6 years of service time out of young pitchers are slim. Injuries hit almost every pitcher.
Injuries hit almost every pitcher.
Right. So you want to maximize the risk and impact of a starting pitching injury by putting all (or most) of your eggs in one basket rather than spreading that risk out over as many top, young, cheap options as you can?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Last I checked
we have a 6 man rotation. Given this ludicrous hoard of major league pitching talent, we’d have to trade a couple pitchers just to make room for Ubaldo!
Works in theory, but...
It makes no sense for the Royals to give up pitching in exchange for Ubaldo. We have 2, maybe 3 holes to fill in our starting rotation. The Royals simply can not afford to trade Duffy and Odorizzi for one starting pitcher. We need to move position players and relievers.
if one of Duffy/Odorizzi...
turns out to be as good as Ubaldo, then we got lucky.
So who is in the Royals' 2013 rotation in your scenario?
Ubaldo
?
?
Montgomery?
Paulino?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
lamb, dwyer, crow, hochevar, greinke?, other random FA
there are options. Locking in a frontline starter is huge.
Then why not have this rotation?
Greinke (signed for 2013 season and beyond)
Duffy
Odorizzi/Montgomery/Lamb
Montgomery/Odorizzi/Lamb/Dwyer
Paulino/Lamb/Dwyer
That’s a lot cheaper than trying to compete for multiple FA pitchers over the next few years and signing them to huge long-term deals. Not to mention having to re-sign Ubaldo after the 2014 season to a huge deal (assuming he performs well).
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
because you know what you're getting in Ubaldo
duffy and odorizzi may never be solid MLB players.
And Ubaldo might be a disappointment
His fastball is already losing velocity. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to trade for the guy. I’d give up major league talent and top prospects to get him. Just not starting pitching. The Royals need at least 2 (and maybe 3) starting pitchers, better then what they have now. They are not going to get there by trading away the good pitchers they do have.
by Pointed Stick on Jul 20, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You never know what you're getting
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Neither of them has to be as good as Ubaldo
As long as they are both better then what we have now. Presently, Duffy is a solid 3 and could get better. Odorizzi should be at least as good. On a team as starved for starting pitching as the Royals, I would take two solid starters over one stud every day of the week.
by Pointed Stick on Jul 20, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Except that we have a ton of other guys that might be "solid starters"
And while there’s a decent chance that a few of them are solid, even if we trade a couple, there’s also a good chance that not a single one of them becomes a stud, even if we keep all of them.
The more tickets you have
The greater chance you have a hitting the jackpot. I don’t believe you need an ace to win championships. I know you can’t win with the garbage we have now. Every pitcher on the major league roster has serious questions concerning their value going forward. That’s why we need to stockpile talent. Trade from you strengths to shore up your weaknesses… that’s all I’m saying.
by Pointed Stick on Jul 20, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm far from being in the trade Butler camp
But in terms of matching the two teams up, does Colorado have any decent 1B prospects in the upper levels? Helton and Giambi are both getting way up there, and although Billy is not the greatest defensive first baseman, he’s not a complete and total butcher. Plus, he’s young and has a pretty good contract. The thin air out there would only help his “warning track power.” And he wouldn’t have such poopy-pants all the time about only being able to DH.
I’d probably do a deal with Butler and a decent, probably lower-level pitching prospect (but not Odorizzi or Duffy). I would still have some worries about Ubaldo’s real abilities and coming over to the AL.
Helton is still signed through 2013 though
And he’s still fairly productive now so what do they do with Butler and Helton right now? Plus I don’t know that any NL team would be confident in his glove.
But yea, Butler might make a nice chip if the team doesn’t really see a place for him. Personally I think Billy ends up in Seattle or Oakland in a year or two.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, I didn't know they had Helton signed through 2013
He’ll turn 40 during that season. I guess he’s had a little bit of a resurgence this year (a 2.8 WAR 1B). But he was terrible/hurt last year, and I’d bet on 2012-13 being more like his 2010 season than this year.
Maybe next season is the year to make this trade, with Helton hobbled/struggling, the Rockies otherwise kicking ass, and Ubaldo clogging up their rotation. A base-clogger for a rotation-clogger seems like a fair deal.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he renegotiated
He was going to paid a whopping amount the last few years, but re-negotiated to sign a longer deal, but for not much money. He’s only going to be paid like $5 mill those last two seasons.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Watch for Cuthbert at 1B in 2-3 years
Todd Haley's kids know more swear words than I do.
by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Jul 20, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Why? He's playing 3rd very well
Why move him to an easier spot?
by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 12:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would pull the trigger on this for Duffy, Odorizzi and Eibner in a heartbeat
But it will probably take something more like Montgomery, Duffy, and Myers. Which I would also seriously consider. And it might take even more.
The Herschel Walker request is pretty ominous. Minnesota got very little out of Herschel and Dallas got several cornerstones of its great 1990s teams.
3 top 50 prospects for Ubaldo?
That seems a little rich.
Yeah, I just don't think you solve the rotation problem
By trading two young, cost-controlled (probable) parts of it. Not to mention trading another (probable) part of another weak area of your team/system (i.e. the OF).
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Dallas got that, and more
Ubaldo Jiminez is a relative young, proven, elite starter. I have a lot of hope for our prospects and I think a lot of them are going to turn into really good major leaguers. But those are the types of players we’d have to give up to get Ubaldo, and I believe that it’s very likely to be worth it.
First of all, comparing a proposed MLB trade
to an NFL one (when the centerpiece of the deal was a HUGE number of draft picks) is beyond apples and oranges. More like apples and meteorites.
Secondly, I don’t think you want to cite a trade called “The Great Train Robbery” as support for the Royals making your Ubaldo trade…when the Royals would be the Vikings in this analogy.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
What is the MLB equivalent of the Herschel Walker trade?
The AJ Pierzynski to San Fran deal? The Bartolo Colon to Montreal deal? Neither were considered that bad at the time.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Good call
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
The Dan Haren to ARI trade
(hat tip to Baseball Think Factory)
Haren got dealt for six players – P Greg Smith, OF Carlos Gonzalez, 1B Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham, P Brett Anderson, and P Dana Eveland
That’s quite a haul.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Seriously LA made out huge on their trade for Tex...
KASEY FREAKING KOTCHMAN!?
by KCTiger on Jul 21, 2011 12:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't know that there is one
And I doubt there ever will be (in MLB or the NFL). I mean, you’re talking about a trade that set one franchise back for years, and literally served as the foundation for a long-standing dynasty for another franchise.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
sizemore phillips and lee for colon...
nobody thought that was a good deal at the time…and it turned out far worse
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That's fair -
I only used the Walker trade because O’Dowd said that’s what he wants to do – essentially loot another team.
But the Royals might have the pieces to be looted and still come out strong. Would I actually trade Duffy, Monty and Myers for Ubaldo? I don’t know, but I’d think about it, because it might actually be acceptable to O’Dowd and it addresses a huge team weakness at the top of the rotation for the next 3+ years.
This is a fun one to think about because Ubaldo would very likely be a huge boon to the team at a good price and for a long time. I’m willing to part with a lot for that.
I like the strategy
As I said, I think prospects are overvalued right now and I like the idea of trading for pitchers with more controllable years left (Wandy Rodriguez could be another one that is expensive, but perhaps not as costly prospect-wise). I just don’t think we’re quite in the position yet to make such a move. If we’re playing decent next year, then yea, I think it would be a wise thing to do.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that it would be ideal to wait 6 or 12 months on this
But will he still be available then? Will any pitcher that good be available? Hard to say. It may be that we would have to pounce now to land him at all.
Wandy will be very expensive
Bc the Spankees want him bad.
by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 12:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd be interested in a deal centered around Butler or Myers
I doubt they are interested in Butler though given the presence of Todd Helton, who apparently is superhuman and will play forever. Making Duffy and/or Odorizzi as the centerpiece of a deal seems kind of redundant to me.
Myers, Eibner, Ventura, and Billo? Rockies probably wouldn’t even consider it.
His mechanics scare me
also hasnt his velocity dropped 3 mph this year?
Anyhow, you dont trade pitching for him, not with how bad the Royals pitching is. So Duffy and Montgomery are out…
You want this guy? Its real simple…start with Hosmer (No, I dont advocate doing this). You dont get pitchers of this quality (and contract status) without giving up a painful return. And Helton cant play forever. Hosmer is the Royals true gold trade chip. Not Myers, not Soria, and not anyone else (although Cuthbert could be so in 2 years).
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
I still say, if we want an ace
That we have the payroll to just buy one and keep our top prospects. We could get Weaver next year, use him a couple years while more prospects develop, then trade him to free the payroll back up, and get a load of top prospects for him while we were at it.
by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 12:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
True
I would hold on to our arms, and try to trade for another elite RHP Prospect (S. Miller). Then roll into FA after 2012 with idea that we will overpay some to gain 1-2 starters. Marcum, Greinke, Weaver, A. Sancez, J. Sancez, Cain, Colby Lewis, Hamels.. That is a huge group to add to Duffy, Monty, Odorizzi
Do you think that still holds true?
When we pretty obviously have a wave of talent coming up, and a good clubhouse environment. It has to be obvious to a lot of players that this team is going to be on the rise shortly, and that’s an exciting time for a lot of players. For a player that knows he’d be one of if not the key piece still needed to make a young, energized team a real contender, and with one of the best outfields and SS in the league behind him to help…as long as the money is as good as anywhere else, I think they might sign.
by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 10:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, until proven otherwise
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think it'll take a legitmitate showing or two during the season to get FA's to actually buy in.
They see what Greinke thought and look at the team on the field and can pretty easily come to the conclusion that KC might be a place to avoid unless you’re just hoping for playing time.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Remember though, that this deal
Doesn’t happen until after the 2012 season. By that point, the team on the field should be looking like it can contend the coming season.
by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 12:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you really think most players are seeing what Greinke said...
and saying…‘hmm…i agree with that dude’
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I still think most free agents see
the numbers on the offer sheet that Dayton faxes over. If there is a close enough offer from a more successful team (or a city they like more), then maybe that puts the other team over the top. But 99 times out of 100, FA’s are going wherever the best offer comes from.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 21, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Another
Blown Save (kind of) for the Cardinals tonight. Sure looks like they could use Soria.
My Three team monster deadline deal:
KC Gets: Shelby Miller, Eric Surkamp, Heath Hembree
KC Loses: Soria, Aviles,Chen, Melky
ST Louis Gets: Soria, Vogelsong, Aviles,
ST Louis Loses: Rasmus, Shelby Miller
SF Gets: Rasmus, Melky, Chen
SF Loses: Vogelsong, Eric SurKamp, Heath Hembree
Why? St Louis adds a much needed SP, they get a real closer and (believe it or not) Aviles would be welcomed as they would upgrade their bench. Jay takes over in center and they don’t miss a beat by losing Rasmus. This trade should lock up a division title. While Miller departure would leave a hole at the top of their system, it would be far from bare of talented arms.
Why? SF adds some hitters to their terrible offense. They will be getting J. Sancez back soon, so that fifth spot would be either Chen or Zito. Their overall staff would only be slighty weakened, but the added offense would more than make up for that, IMO.
Why? We would add a very touted RHP starting prospect to the mix. Also, Hembree is a closer in AA. He has very strong K/BB rates. Surkamp is a LHP prospect who has good numbers. We remove the road blocks for Cain and Giavotella, also we use the rest of 2011 to find a closer (Holland/Coleman)
i dont see any way the cards do that deal for a closer and a pitcher who's had 1/2 of a good season
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not, but
It is even, fair and makes sense for all three teams.
by 102win on Jul 21, 2011 11:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You get a gold star.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Again with
The back of the room comments, easier it must be to define problems and never solutions. You should run for Congress.
by 102win on Jul 21, 2011 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I've offered my solutions
Just because you don’t like them doesn’t mean they’re not solutions.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I dont remember
If you dont mind repost some.
Basically let the young guys play
Try to find trades for young players.
Trust the process.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think Ubaldo is a good chance to cash in
some prospects for a younger player locked in until 2014.
Write that one down on your deposit slip.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 21, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not interested in trading both
Duffy and Odorizzi. I know tinstaapp and all, but Duffy has started to look really good and has made major progress on lowering the walks.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
At first blush, I thought this might be a good deal for the Royals.
Get a guy who has electric stuff, ability to get Ks, is probably still a little numbers-stifled by Denver, seems healthy…
But why on earth are the Rockies shopping this guy? They’re in it to win for the next few years too. If this guy is their ace or whatever you want to call a guy who’s hit 5+ WAR twice already, and he’s under contract for THREE more years, what are they telling everyone else?
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
