I Am Musket Soak, the Story of the Moustakas Slump

by BHWick on Jul 21, 2011 3:14 PM EDT

Mike Moustakas has 2 hits in his last 51 PA. Which is good for a total of 2 for 49.

Mike Moustakas has 0 hits in his last 22 at-bats (he did have a HBP).

Mike Moustakas had 0 hits in 21 at-bats from July 3rd to July 10th.

Mike Moustakas hasn't hit the ball out of the infield in his last 10 PA.

Mike Moustakas hasn't drawn a walk since July 1st (remember when we were surprised about his plate discipline and acted like it was better than Eric Hosmer's?).

In other words, Mike Moustakas is hitting horribly. In the eyes of some, obviously he has to be rushed back to Omaha to ever become good again. Because someone who doesn't hit for that long will be scarred for life. Shaking. Traumatized.

Well now, let's take a look at the at-bats over this string to gain some deeper insight about Mike Moustakas.

In 55 PA from July 3rd to July 20th, Moustakas has 5 hits, 3 of them coming in the first 4 PA. He has seen 198 pitches (103 fastballs) in those 55 PA, an average of 3.6 per PA. 17 of the PA have ended on the 1st or 2nd pitch. He has seen 60 balls, swung/looked at 46 strikes, hit 39 foul balls (29 on fastballs), and put 47 balls into play.

The outcome of the 55 PA: 5 hits, 7 strikeouts, 1 HBP, 1 Sac Fly, 18 groundouts, 13 flyouts, 9 popouts, and 1 lineout.

Out of the 9 popouts, 6 of them came on the 1st or 2nd pitch. 5 of the popouts came on fastballs.

37 of the PA have been v. RHP. 18 v. LHP. Moustakas has 1 hit v. LHP over this time.

In fact, the first deep question involves Moustakas and LHP. Does it do Mike Moustakas any good to be benched v. LHP at this moment? Over the period of the last 17 days, Mike Moustakas was benched twice instead of facing Brian Duensing and Charlie Furbush. He did get to face Mark Buerhle twice, John Danks and Francisco Liriano. Does the break from playing make his hitting in future games better or worse? Shouldn't Mike Moustakas get as many at-bats v. LHP as he possibly can so that we can get the best idea possible of his abilities v. LHP? In the minor leagues, the split between his hitting v. lefties and righties was mainly a split of his abilities to hit for power, not a split in his ability to get on base.

There's an argument for both sides, but if you're gonna tout development. If you're gonna argue for batting Escobar late in games when he was slumping "because we need him to hit in those spots".. why is Mike Moustakas development as a hitter less valuable than Alcides Escobar's? Moustakas should be getting every start possible v. LHP with Betemit gone. If he doesn't, you'll hear about it.

If you go back to Mike Moustakas' splits in the minor leagues, you find a split of 36% groundballs, 36% flyballs in Springdale last year. But you find a split of 29% groundballs/39% flyballs, 11.5% popups in Omaha. Moustakas topped 10% in popups in Wilmington (11.8%) and Burlington (12.8%) as well. Currently Moustakas has 46% flyballs/37% groundballs/27% popups.

The calling card of a struggling Moustakas appears to involve popups.

When it comes to the first pitch over the 55 PA sample, Moustakas took the first pitch 38 times and swung 17 times. When it took, the pitch was a ball 25 times and a strike 13 times. When he swung, he missed 5 times, fouled the ball off 5 times, 3 groundouts, 3 popouts, and a single.

In fact, when you go back to the strikes thrown against Moustakas, 31 were called strikes and 15 were swinging. So when Moustakas swings the bat, he missed 15 times, fouled the ball off 39 times, put the ball into play 47 times.

The second deep question is about self-confidence. The people who mention the self-confidence card seem to tilt towards people who think body-language is easy o interpret through a TV and meaningful. Is Mike Moustakas' inability to get a ball out of the infield for days at a time a self-confidence issue and not a swing issue? If someone is having confidence issues, wouldn't they be swinging at bad pitches, laying off hittable pitches in the strikezone at the wrong times? Wouldn't the self-confidence issues show up outside of hitting?

Perhaps part of the problem is that Moustakas cares too much. Listens to too much advice. Tries to change too much, and makes things worse. I'm no expert in the quality of the Texas League or the PCL, but i'm gonna guess Mike Moustakas did not hit for power in those leagues with the swing we've seen lately. Just a suspicion.

And when it comes down to what he's not hitting hard, what makes you think a stint in AAA would lead to him seeing enough quality pitches to get into enough of a groove that he could hit in the majors upon recall? Maybe the problem is that he's facing quality major league pitching, and that problem isn't going to be solved in Omaha. It's only going to be solved by facing quality major league pitching in the major leagues.

But but.. he'll be changed foreverrr if we don't let him go to Omaha to get his confidence back. No he won't. If he's not good enough to come back from a 2 for 49 string and start hitting sometime in his career, he's not good enough anyways. The reality that this team has not contended in 8 years. Has not had a good run in it in 15+ years. Has not had a youth movement carried out in 35 years. Distorts people's points of view about how to handle young players. They're not wearing diapers. They're not cutting themselves in the locker room out of sorrow. They're paid to do this and they feel failure, but when they succeed, they get over the failures. Mike Moustakas isn't going to mope over his 2 for 49 in three years. And the fact that this team hasn't had a good run thanks to young players since the 1970s leads to fans having an impatience with young players and a belief that they're better off in Omaha than facing major league pitching on a major league team that is not in contention.

But Mike Moustakas should play almost every day v. righties and lefties (yes, even against Charlie Furbush). And when it comes to his swing, he should go back to what got him to the dance and stop screwing around with the advice he gets from teammates and hitting coaches. It's better to at least try what you are comfortable with than to fail using someone else's hitting system.

Just let him play the game. If he's meant to be good, he'll hit. If he's not meant to be good, then so be it. Demoting him now or reducing his playing time won't change a thing.

Review the slump chart yourselves.

Date

Pitcher

Pitches

Result

07/03/11

Hammel (RH)

FB94KS

FB93F

FB94B

FB94IP

LO1

07/03/11

Hammel (RH)

CB76B

CB76KL

FB92KS

CB80B

CB76IP

2B9

07/03/11

Belisle (RH)

SL90B

SL90KL

SL87B

FB91F

FB92B

FB92F

FB91F

SL90IP

2B9

07/03/11

Belisle (RH)

SL92KL

FB92IP

1B1

07/03/11

Mortensen (RH)

FB88B

FB87IP

PO6

07/03/11

Mortensen (RH)

FB88B

CH81IP

GO3

07/04/11

Buehrle (LH)

FB86KS

FB86B

CU83KL

FB86F

FB84B

FB83KL

07/04/11

Buehrle (LH)

FB86IP

PO6

07/04/11

Buehrle (LH)

CU83B

CB83B

FB84KL

FB87B

FB84IP

PO3

07/04/11

Santos (RH)

FB96F

FB96B

CH88KL

SL84KL

07/05/11

Peavy (RH)

FB92KL

FB91KL

FB92IP

SF8

07/05/11

Peavy (RH)

CU86B

CH83F

PO85

CU85KL

CB79B

CH84F

FB92IP

FO7

07/05/11

Peavy (RH)

CU87KL

FB91F

CB80KS

07/05/11

Bruney (RH)

CH87B

FB96KL

FB96IP

FO7

07/06/11

Jackson (RH)

SL83KL

FB97B

SL86IP

FO9

07/06/11

Jackson (RH)

FB96KL

PO86

CH86B

FB94F

FB96IP

GO46

07/06/11

Jackson (RH)

FB98F

FB95F

FB96F

FB98F

SL90KS

07/06/11

Santiago (RH)

FB95B

FB94KL

FB95B

FB93F

CH77B

FB95IP

FO7

07/07/11

Scherzer (RH)

FB94B

FB95B

FB94KL

FB94IP

FO6

07/07/11

Scherzer (RH)

CH82B

CH83IP

GO43

07/07/11

Coke (LH)

CB84KL

CB82IP

FO8

07/07/11

Valverde (RH)

SP85B

FB95B

FB94F

FB95F

FB96F

SP88IP

FO7

07/08/11

Porcello (RH)

FB92IP

GO6

07/08/11

Porcello (RH)

FB92B

CH84KS

FB92F

FB92IP

FO5

07/08/11

Purcey (LH)

FB93KL

SL82IP

PO2

07/08/11

Coke (LH)

CH85B

CH85KS

CB82KS

CH84KS

07/10/11

100

Verlander (RH)

FB95IP

1B9

07/10/11

101

Verlander (RH)

CH85KS

CB79B

CH86IP

GO31

07/10/11

102

Verlander (RH)

CH85B

FB94B

CH85IP

FO9

07/10/11

103

Valverde (RH)

FB95B

FB92IP

GO63

07/14/11

104

Liriano (LH)

FB90IP

GO3

07/14/11

105

Liriano (LH)

FB93B

SL86KS

SL88F

FB94IP

2B7

07/14/11

106

Liriano (LH)

FB92KS

FB92F

SL86KS

07/14/11

107

Mijares (LH)

SL78KL

SL79B

SL79IP

PO3

07/15/11

108

Blackburn (RH)

CB78KL

FB91B

CB79IP

GO31

07/15/11

109

Blackburn (RH)

FB88F

FB89F

FB88IP

GIDP463

07/15/11

110

Blackburn (RH)

CU87IP

GO43

07/15/11

111

Capps (RH)

FB92IP

PO6

07/16/11

112

Pavano (RH)

CH80KL

CH82F

SP80B

FB89F

CH79IP

FO8

07/16/11

113

Pavano (RH)

FB89IP

PO6

07/16/11

114

Pavano (RH)

SP80KL

SI89B

FB89B

FB90F

SP85F

FB89IP

FO8

07/16/11

115

Nathan (RH)

CB81B

SL88KL

FB93IP

FO9

07/18/11

116

Buehrle (LH)

FB87KL

FB87F

FB84HBP

HBP

07/18/11

117

Buehrle (LH)

CU83B

FB83B

FB88B

FB87KL

CU82IP

GO43

07/18/11

118

Buehrle (LH)

FB86F

CB71B

CU81KL

CB72B

CH77F

CH79F

CH78F

FB87IP

FO7

07/18/11

119

Santos (RH)

FB96B

FB96KL

FB97F

SL87B

SL87KS

07/19/11

120

Peavy (RH)

CB78B

CB77KS

CB79KS

CB78IP

GO13

07/19/11

121

Peavy (RH)

CU86B

CB77KL

CH84B

CB76B

SL84IP

GO43

07/19/11

122

Peavy (RH)

FB90B

SL85IP

07/19/11

123

Bruney (RH)

FB96B

CH88F

SL87B

FB97IP

GO63

07/20/11

124

Danks (LH)

FB91KL

CU88IP

PO6

07/20/11

125

Danks (LH)

CU87KS

CB78KL

FB93B

CU87IP

GO43

07/20/11

126

Danks (LH)

FB91F

FB92IP

GO63

07/20/11

127

Sale (LH)

SL82B

FB97F

FB97IP

GO31

07/20/11

128

Sale (LH)

FB98KL

FB98B

FB98KS

FB98F

SL85IP

PO4

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Comments

Like te article homie

But he won’t go to AAA.

The only way he goes there is

A. The front office wants to play aviles at 3B to raise his trade value.

B. The front office loses confidence in him and he becomes a “organizational player”

IMHO

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Jul 21, 2011 1:30 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I see the point of letting him hit vs both RHP and LHP,

though I can also see the counter point of letting him focus on RHP, at least for now. Once he’s righted the ship, then by all means get him as much exposure to pitchers as you can.

I don’t really have a strong feeling one way or the other, though.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 21, 2011 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

Have we reached the point

or when does he, when it mirrors the travesty of letting Mazzarro take 100 earned runs in an inning and a half?

by stlJeff on Jul 21, 2011 3:48 PM EDT reply actions

I didn't mention that

Gordon hit 169/289/250 in his first 160 PA in 2007

Then he hit 283/348/455 in his next 161 PA.

and without that start, he hit 273/323/464

If he doesn’t get a hit in his next 32 AB and goes into the 160 PA mark at 149/200/189.. then it’s Mazzaro territory

but the only way for him to get hits and get out of the slump is to play every day and get back to playing the game the way he’s most comfortable playing it.

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by BHWick on Jul 21, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to see Aviles get a weekly start at 3rd

The jump from AAA to the majors is proverbially the hardest, and Moose does look over-matched right now and can’t square anything up right now. Hos had similar problems for a while, where every ball that he hit in play was weak, and the only balls he hit hard would end up fifty feet foul.

A little rest is not going to hurt Moose and it might give him a chance to observe some things that he’s not seeing right now.

by Loose Seal on Jul 21, 2011 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

Comparison to other demotees:

Kila: .195/.295./.317/.612 (96 PA)

Aviles: .213/.257/.391/.647 (184 PA)

Moose: .190/.252/.241/.493 (128 PA) (+ vs. lefties .061/.088/.091/.179)

by kansasjohn on Jul 21, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions

Neither Of Them

Were ever as highly regarded as Mous or Gordon. Aviles, however, had proven he could hit MLB pitching. He was just a victim of Yost and Moore’s misplaced love of Getz.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 21, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

or a victim of his own terrible defense and baserunning...

and of his awful at bats…which may very well have been corrected in omaha

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

He Was A

Good baserunner until this season, and his defense was actually good at SS. First Yu-Bet and now Herc have kept him playing out of position for 3 years.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 21, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

but he wasnt this year...

and it wasnt due to a lack of skills or deteriorating athleticism…getting picked off is just stupidity or lack of focus…something that a trip to shitty ass omaha might fix…and his swing and approach was juat atrocious…even worse than it has been in the past

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Everybody Has Been

Running bases poorly this season. Remember, we’re trying to get 10 steals for

Butler; that's a noble goal

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 21, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Haven't been watching Royals games, so I haven't really seen Moose throughout this slump, but I'm not surprised.

He has a grooved swing which basically means that his swing is only suited for a specific type of pitch in this case a fastball on the inner half (he hooks the ball).

You pitch him away or give him a good off-speed pitch and he can’t do anything with it.

Learned this from mah boi Steve Carter at Project Prospect.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 21, 2011 5:24 PM EDT reply actions

so....

can he change? can he improve? can he learn? or is he doomed to be this way forever?

Right now, pitchers in the NL are outhitting Moose. EVERYONE is outhitting Moose. Freddie Freeman is outhitting Moose. Daniel Hudson is outhitting Moose.

I say let him play…his defense has been very good. If he wants to make a career of this baseball thing, then he needs to learn how to hit off speed pitching and outside pitching.

by david.lowe on Jul 21, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he can definitely improve.

It may take some time, though, as he has probably been swinging this way for a while (muscle memory).

I still see a lot of thump from the man. He can keep his swing and destroy fastballs on the inner half, but he will remain vulnerable to heaters outside and off-speed stuff.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 25, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I guarantee

Moose won’t get a hit tonight.

by Mark LaFlamme on Jul 21, 2011 5:32 PM EDT reply actions

I'm sick of all the negativity on this blog!

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 21, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he meant that there isn't a game tonight.

Although I was privy to your sarcasm.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 21, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Up here in Maine

it’s around 95 degrees. Probably worse in KC, huh?

by LaFLamme on Jul 21, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.

100 degrees at 5:30 Central. Humidity not bad today though.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 21, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn, man.

I’d hate to catch a game in that kind of heat.

by LaFLamme on Jul 21, 2011 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

"what makes you think a stint in AAA would lead to him seeing enough quality pitches to get into enough of a groove that he could hit in the majors upon recall?"

In Omaha, he’d have Major League caliber hitters hitting behind him in the lineup. Something he doesn’t have in Kansas City.

Not saying we snould send him back to AAA. I just think it’s fun to point out that Clint Robinson provides more lineup protection than Getz, Escobat, TREANOR! et al. And yet Robinson will likely never sniff the Kaufman Sheboygan.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Jul 21, 2011 8:41 PM EDT reply actions

that is close to what I thought earlier today . . .

. . . at least in terms of protection. I’m not sure about C-Rob being MLB ready (not saying he isn’t, I just don’t know).

by kansasjohn on Jul 21, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

robinson will likely never sniff any major league food....

now, some japanese sushi….

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't see why people think C-Rob won't get a shot somewhere

I don’t think he’ll be a worldbeater or anything, but it’s not out of the question to me that he ends up getting claimed in Rule 5 or off of waivers and putting together a decent career as a bench bat and spot starter for somebody. Sure he’s slow and has an iron glove, but I can’t think of too terribly many fast, slick fielding first basemen anyway.

Teaching My Girlfriend About Sports

by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 22, 2011 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions

speaking of which.

This is his fifth season. Is it just as simple as having him on the 40 man in order to protect him? I can’t imagine any of a dozen teams NOT taking him in the Rule 5 after this year.

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Jul 22, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions