Trade Billy Butler?

The Royals desperately need starting pitching soon. Obviously there is no way we'll compete the next 2 years without getting some pitching. Butler has proven to be a legitimate hitter if nothing else, and I think he could net a good starting pitcher. We also have Clint Robinson who continues to mash in AAA. I have no clue what Clint could contribute to the big league club, but I like the Royals chances better with Clint at DH and whatever starting pitcher comes along in a Butler deal, then if we just kept Butler. Do I think this ever happens? No. But I'd like it to. Especially with teams like the Pirates who are in buy mode that have Lyle Overbay at 1st hitting .236/.304/.357. So I guess I'm just asking if anyone else would be on board with this idea?

10 months ago focs 26 comments 0 recs |

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yes

but only if we got some really good pitching in return, like a #2/3 starter type

Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."

--Albert Einstein

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 21, 2011 6:46 AM EDT reply actions

We'd need a pitcher who could manage 3 WAR in the AL who is under team control for several years

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

Unless we were confident that our replacement DH was worth at least 1WAR. If he turned out to be average we’d only be 1 WAR down.
But yes, on the whole, we would probably have to go with a top prospect, because am established pitcher of the quality we’d want for Butler is probably more than we could get for him.

by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 10:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm open to it

I just don’t think anyone is going to give you a #2 type pitcher for him, especially since you are limited pretty much to dealing with 13 AL clubs.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

I think Billy would be okay in the NL.

There are certainly clubs with just as bad defensive players or worse than BB.

by KCTiger on Jul 21, 2011 11:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And that doesn't hurt his value any more than the DH positional adjustment

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

It would really have to be an established major league pitcher for me to be open to it

by KSinDC on Jul 21, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Bringing up Clint Robinson coud be Kila: Part Two

(at least according to Rany and Kevin Goldstein) and I can’t really put too much stock in Robinson’s AAA numbers when there are ex-Royals like Jai Miller and Mike Jacobs currently putting up comparable numbers.

by kansasjohn on Jul 21, 2011 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

if Clint COULD be Kila part 2 then Montgomery COULD be Chris George part 2

We r terrible everywhere & need help. Billy is only batting .287 w/ 6 HR. At the least its a lateral move

by HIT34MAN on Jul 21, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

NOT TO MENTION ALL THE DOUBLE PLAYS BRO!

BUTLER IS A BUM. THEY SHOULD TRADE HIM FOR A GUY LIKE CHRIS GETZ. LIKE ANY GM IS STUPID ENOUGH TO TAKE HIM OFF OUR HANDS LOL.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus, he ALWAYS strikes out. When he somehow manages to gets hits he only does so to selfishly maintain his precious average when nobody is on base because he can’t handle the pressure of batting with runners on base. And when he gets on base, he constantly prevents his teammates from scoring because he clogs the bases. He is a fat, cookie-eating, clubhouse cancer solely responsible for the team dramatically crashing downward from above .500 to having a losing record. He has destroyed all sense of comradarie and team morale.

The above-paragraph paraphrases anti-Butler sentiment on royals.com (and does not represent my opinions).

To be serious for a second, I am against trading Butler, mainly because if he got traded, what would people at royals.com complain about? There is a whole section of fans that would have nothing to lend to the marketplace of ideas if Butler was gone [except maybe for begging for new ownership (George Brett, duh), a new GM, and a new head coach (Frank White, duh)].

by kansasjohn on Jul 21, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Kyle Davies now

Kyle Davies forever

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I forgot about him.

Yet Davies doesn’t quite get the scorn reserved for poor Billy.

by kansasjohn on Jul 21, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Amen! Get Billy outta here & bring up Clint!

Let’s get some power in the line up. I don’t know what kind of pitcher Billy could bring back though

by HIT34MAN on Jul 21, 2011 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

haha

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

He's not joking

and that’s sad.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

oh...damn

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 21, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

well I guess Billy is untradeable. Sorry buddy!

by HIT34MAN on Jul 21, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

how would that move screw up this season anymore really?

by HIT34MAN on Jul 21, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

It wouldn't

So let's do it!

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I Really Doubt We'll Get Fair Value for Billy

And I wouldn’t trust Dayton to spend the money wisely. I’d much rather have Dayton going after FA pitchers than a FA DH.

by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

On one hand, Dayton could easily trade Billy.

Unlike Frenchy, the fans hate him.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 21, 2011 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

Proof that if a player smiles a lot, . . .

. . . his strike-outs and GIDP don’t count.

by kansasjohn on Jul 21, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The thing is...

It’s not just a good thing if Clint Robinson works out. We don’t have to play a TRUE DH at the DH spot. I’ve always been a fan of having that spot for another fielder where you can rotate 1/2 days off for the lineup. If we trade Butler, that means we can play Frenchy, Melky, Gordon, and Cain and don’t have to trade one of them. Worse case scenario we are DHing Aviles and Clint in a platoon type situation. I’m just saying, the drop off from a good hitting, no fielding Butler to an average hitting, average fielding somebody isn’t drastic. It’s a drop off, but not drastic. Definitely not as drastic as the upgrade from Kyle Davies to the starter we get for Butler.
I like Butler. I hate it when people post that if you think we should trade Butler it means you hate Butler. That’s just not the case. But I would take 80 cents on the dollar right now for him based on his numbers when he is DHing.

by Matty486 on Jul 21, 2011 5:38 PM EDT reply actions

It's a drop off, but not drastic?

I disagree. I think it’s very drastic, especially considering he’s having a down year and 24 years old. I think we can expect him to get better in the 2nd half and to regress to his career numbers in the next couple years at least. If there would be any time to trade him, it would not be now.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 21, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to give you a sense on how the math works out on that

I know that fWAR isn’t everything, and I know that Aviles and Billy are both having down years, but here’s how essentially replacing Butler with Aviles at the DH looks:

I’m using fangraphs runs above replacement, but I’m stripping out the fielding and positional components, and I’m projecting Aviles over the 96 games Billy has played so far to correct for Aviles having less playing time:
Billy: 19.9 RAR / 96 games
Micah: 4,3 RAR / 96 games

The absolute difference between them is 15.6 RAR. Davies so far this year has generated 3.5 RAR. Add the difference between Billy and Aviles and you’ve got 19.1 RAR of production so far this year. That’s Ryan Dempster / Tim Hudson / Scott Baker level production.

This isn’t perfect analysis — it’s backward looking, WAR is not the end-all, and fangraphs WAR is pretty generous to Davies — but still it gives an idea of what sort of pitcher we’d have to bring back in order to break even on this trade if Clint turns out to be Kila 2.0

by KSinDC on Jul 21, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions