Tim Collins Is Becoming Less Interesting, More Average, Set to Get Worse

by Freneau on Jul 21, 2011 11:04 AM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

I haven't seen many glowing profiles of Tim Collins lately. Have you? Oh, he's still around and now he has some hideous ducktail type thing, which I suppose is popular. (Have baseball players, as a group, ever looked uglier? Bad hair, bad beards, bad jewlery, etc.) But at this point he doesn't truly look like a legitimate asset. Instead, he's merely a guy. Maybe a useful guy, but overall, just a guy. Form a line.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Tim Collins	4-4	42	0	0	0	0	0	45.1	31	18	18	3	34	39	3.57	1.43

Through May 28, Collins was used almost constantly by Ned Yost, who gave him the ball in 28 of the team's first 51 games. While this included a handful of short outings, he wasn't a specialist. Collins faced 10 batters three times in that span. His game log is fascinating to look at, because in today's dull game, we just don't see players who are used in a truly random way anymore. Yost was consistently using Collins, but the length of his outings had no pattern. After a nice start and a shiny 0.00 ERA for a week or so, Collins had some labor pains through those busy first two months, but rebounded by the end of it with another nice stretch.

However, the strikeouts started showing up less frequently and the walks kept coming. Since the start of June, here are Collins's numbers: 14 G, 15.2 IP, 10 BB, 8 SO, 9 Runs Allowed, 5.17 ERA.

He's not allowing many hits, but the walks remain a critical problem. Even with this recent rough patch, I don't want to suggest that Collins has been a disaster or that he's doomed to a short career. That isn't the case.

Nevertheless, at the moment he's a guy with a toxic 17.5% BB rate. His ERA is still nice looking (though we need to adjust for the reliever bump and the lower run scoring) but his FIP (4.42) and especially his xFIP (4.87) suggest that he's headed for tough times. Really though, you don't need fancy stats to see that. Pitchers who walk nearly a batter an inning have pitched poorly, eventually, for the last hundred years.

In a way, I feel like Collins's arc was inevitable. And in that sense, it is a little sad that his exciting and at times unhittable first month was wasted on the 2011 Royals. Because, like many pitchers who come over from Japan with an odd delievery, his first month was almost certainly going to be his best month. He's a very unique pitcher. Imagine him showing up in August for a Royals team in a pennant race? Insane. Oh well, it didn't happen.

Given that Collins was the jewel of the 2010 trade class, he's a good reminder that we need to temper our expectations for what the Royals might acquire this week. At the moment, it does not seem probable that Tim Collins becomes a bullpen star. In fact, he might not even be regular Major Leaguer going forward.

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This is the most depressing article I've ever read on this board.

Holy shit, the poor guy is going to regress himself right out of baseball? Is it too early to start drinking?

by Black and Gold on Jul 21, 2011 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

It's 5pm somewhere....

ah, who am I kidding; when did that ever bother anyone. DRINK!

Supporting the Kenji Jackson Approach for every day situations.

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 21, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

As of right now, it's 5 pm on the East Coast. Convenient.

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!

by KeepItCopacetic on Jul 21, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

He's 21 years old, so he's more than just a guy

And BTW, maybe Cruz was acquired to give him some competition in a couple of years. Isn’t Teaford a lefty? he’s still pitching well. He walks more batters than he allows hits which can be improved upon

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 21, 2011 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

relievers dont have dramatic peak ages

if anything, they get worse

by Freneau on Jul 21, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

And sometimes they have a great year out of the blue

There’s just a ton of randomness in their performance.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 21, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

yea, i mean, its cool that he's 21 instead of 31

but really, its kinda irrelevant

by Freneau on Jul 21, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

It's only irrelevant b/c we don't know up from down with pitcher aging curves

But him being 21 instead of 31 is a good thing. For instance, his BB rates have always been high, but if they’d been high for 15 years, we’d have less hope that he might improve – as it is, he’s had less than 4 professional seasons.

If Collins never climbs above replacement level, I think we’re going to look back and wonder if he should have been at AAA longer (only 20 innings). He needs to learn to control his pitches better, and now he has to do that in the ML environment.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 21, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I know this is what you've taken from the discussions at The Book Blog

but it might be more accurate to say, “We know a lot less about how pitchers age than hitters, but man, all the evidence makes it look as if, on average, they have a flat curve in their early 20s, followed by a decline, and that’s just really hard to stomach.”

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 21, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a good way to put it.

I believe that we know a lot less than we think we know. Selection bias and injuries just make it such an amazingly difficult problem to solve.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 21, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, if we know "nothing" about pitcher aging

then there’s even less of a reason to cite Collins’ age. If we know “nothing,” It’s not a bad or good thing, it’s not germane to the discussion, as far as we can tell.

What generalized evidence there is, though, points to the odds of him improving overall (studies find that in the early 20s, gains in control are offset by declining K rates, and sometime in the early-mid 20s the K decline overtakes everything else) being slim.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 21, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

He's decidedly below average in all of the advanced pitching metrics

And even more below average for a reliever

FIP 4.42 (11% below average)
xFIP 4.87 (25% below average)
tERA 4.45
SIERA 4.73

Long story short, despite his ERA, he’s pitching poorly.

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by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

Damn, shaky control is his only problem....and that means he might be out of the league soon???

Seems a bit of an overexaggeration. He’s keeping the number of hits given up down and isn’t giving up HRs. His problem is all about walks. At age 21, I think he’s got time to improve on that, given the way he absolutely mowed down hitters at every other level of the game. Is it a sure thing? No….but damn he’s got plenty of time to do it.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 21, 2011 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

guys who walk one in five batters become journeyman real quick

i didnt mean to say he’ll be a career minor leaguer, but with that rate he’s going to be up and down between majors and minors

like 90% of relievers

by Freneau on Jul 21, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

If that walk rate keeps up, then definitely

I just don’t think it’s hard to see Collins improve his command after a while. His walk rate in the minors was nearly half what it is in the majors so far, so I think the potential is there to improve his command enough to have some solid value (for a reliever). If he was giving up a ton of HRs or not striking guys out as well, I’d be more worried…but it’s clear he has the stuff, he just needs to refine it a bit. At 21 years old, I think that’s very possible.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 21, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

"In a way, I feel like Collins's arc was inevitable. "

Small sample size? I mean its fifteen innings.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

Never mind

Reading comprehension fail.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Someone ate a heaping helping of Gloomy-O's this morning.

by LaFLamme on Jul 21, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

Isn't this true of almost any reliever?

It seems like any of them are a bad 15 innings away from being strapped with the label AAAA. I think having 8-10 options of relievers to cycle through during a given season is almost as important as having a couple solid relieving options going into the season. Collins appears to be at least one of the 8-10 options going into next year, but probably not a solid, every day reliever.

by Bart41 on Jul 21, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

That is exactly the point of the article

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by Lum on Jul 21, 2011 1:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

who knows. maybe Collins lacks major league talent or maybe Collins

is one more victim of Ned Yost managerial misuse. What are reliever stats that produce optimal performance compared to how Collins was used? What would Collin’s stats be with appropriate (instead of excessive, injury causing or arm straining) type use? Are the recent improved performances resulting because the arm is bouncing back?

by Coach Feb on Jul 21, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

He was wild from day one though.

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by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't have any problem with his usage

The research shows that relievers used very often don’t perform worse than when they were used less frequently.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

my guess is ur wrong. + the Q is other than "more or less use. "the

Q is appropriate use to optimize performance and prevent injury. whatever the actual result of any stat work that’s been done, does a rational manger /pitching coach combo attuned to injury prevention and performance take a 21 year old 5’7" rook and use the way Collins was used 1st two months of season? And, did the particular usage affect performance. My opening tag was “unknown”. However, the circumstantial evidence is fairly strong that Collins performance began to decline when he was overused. Exactly why is unknown.

by Coach Feb on Jul 21, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

my guess is ur wrong

I would direct your attention to “The Book” by Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin.

I see absolutely no evidence that the usage of Collins has affected his performance. I see no relevance in his age. And can he not handle pitching on consecutive days or 4 days in a week because he’s 5’7"? Again, I’d like to see evidence. I don’t think his performance record supports the contention that he’s gotten worse as his workload has piled up.

Mar/Apr 4.90 xFIP
May 4.48
June 4.75
July 5.75

And his biggest problem has been his control and his BB/9 was higher in Mar/Apr than in any other month this season.

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by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

u again the problem of using the stats to prove your point. oops, did tht post?

fairly easy to do. if instead of stats u rely purely on memory u recall Collins was lights out when initially used and then was put into game after game, sometimes for two innnings at a time, and suddenly he was getting hit and walking people. again, possibly catching up to him, or lack of ability, OR possibly being asked to do something for which he was not conditioned, or he had an actual injury or strain that caused a decline in peformance. What his performances averaged over time is fairly irrelevant to the eye ball analysis that Collins effectiveness declined dramatically and the circumstantial evidence is there—if ur attuned to physiology instead of strictly statistics, that the probable reason was misuse. u could make the same projection for any other pitcher in the bull pen used in that manner—see juan cruz.

by Coach Feb on Jul 21, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

As "effective" as you believe that Collins was

He was pitching with his head above water. His peripherals weren’t good, he was still walking a lot of guys, only then he was getting the strikeouts to counteract it. Collins has been middle of the road as far as relievers go this year, mostly driven by a fairly good BAABIP.

I still think we haven’t seen his best yet, though.

Vi veri veniversum vivus vici

by JKWard on Jul 21, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

possible, of course. the following set of(amazing) stats

aids in illustrating my particular point:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/6210/

by Coach Feb on Jul 21, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless you’re talking about a ridiculously small sample like the first week or two, Collins wasn’t “lights out when initially used.” He had a poor first month. And the following three months weren’t much different. So I really don’t think that the argument that he was good and then deteriorated as he was overused holds water.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 22, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

15 IP in March/April his OPS-against was .789

14 IP in May, it was .357.
.725 and .817 for June and July.

His K/BB rate was basically equal in March/April compared to May: 1.33 vs 1.27.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 22, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

it is interesting that

Teaford is the one shuttled from KC to Omaha but Collins is invincible

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by BHWick on Jul 21, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions

Collins is more talented

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by Scott McKinney on Jul 21, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll chime in with my usual response to Royals' pitcher usage:

Perhaps the Royals should consider trying him as a starter, at least for a while, in the minors?

I know most observers think it is unlikely that his max-effort style would translate to starting – but perhaps the side benefit of this would be more time and more innings to harness his control. He does have three pitches, and no significant platoon split. Throw in that he is most likely the best conditioned pitcher on the Royals roster (take a close look at him – he is cut like a body builder), and who knows? It’s worth a shot, if for no other reason than the Royals have been WRONG so often on the best role for pitchers, why would we presume they are RIGHT about Collins in the first place?

If strikeouts are indeed fascist - then find me some starters that believe in fascism

by loyal2sdad on Jul 21, 2011 12:05 PM EDT reply actions

seconded.

The “He’s too short” mentality will block this from happening, but we need starters going forward and our over-hyped minor league arms won’t be enough.

Baseball's that swingy stick game, right?

by royalsroyalsroyals on Jul 21, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the idea has merit, but the first priority has to be control

(maybe injury prevention before that). The only way he can be a starter is with better control, but maybe you’re right that working through more innings would force him to work on control, not just rely on the strikeouts that got him through A and AA (and sort of AAA).

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 21, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

1. Convert struggling relievers to starters
2. ??
3. Profit!

by maguro on Jul 21, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I will always take the pitcher with K's and hope they figure out a what to throw strikes.

He need to start getting the K/BB over 2 to actually be effective.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 21, 2011 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

+1

Cue the spring training story next year of “we are trying to get Tim to pitch to contact more this year.”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

In 2007, I did an analysis of all the Deadline Reliever Trades

http://www.royalsreview.com/2007/8/1/161630/6704

In the end, so much trading ends up being of utterly no consequence.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 21, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions

anyone ever asked Ned about the hellbent-ish usage of Collins and Paulino?

I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Jul 21, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

But he struck a million guys in the minors

So he must be awesome.

Edgar knows best.

by kcbottom9th on Jul 21, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

Just Watching, It

Seems he can’t spot the curve. He has a good change and seems to control it well. This actually makes him more effective vs RHBs. It seems MLB LHBs are not chasing the curve. If he can start throwing the curve for strikes, especially strike one, I think he’ll be effective.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 21, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

This simply can't be!

The Collins trade is the evidence all the Sunshine Pumpers use as evidence of Daytons trading acumen. Say it ain’t so!

Does this mean Dayton, umm sucks?

Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll

by DaytonSucks on Jul 21, 2011 1:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Sunshine Pumpers reminds me of this from Billy Butler, Frenchy chat yesterday

Comment From KennyPowers
Jeff, with you being the great guy in the clubhouse that follows you with each team…I have to ask…Which kind of fans are more important. The sunshine pumpers who feel the team can do no wrong, or the fans who provide criticism to help the team improve?

Jeff Francoeur: I’m answering this because you say you’re Kenny Powers. I like to read about the criticism because I believe criticism can only help you become better and drive you to be the best you can be.

Link

Another classic brought up in the Gameday Thread

Comment From dannyB
Hi Billy, longtime fan, first time chat. Have you ever hit an inside the park home run?

Billy Butler: Let’s get real. I have three career triples, and it’s because outfielders fell down.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 21, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeff Francouer: disciple of Karl Popper

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 21, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeff thinks Karl Popper was the frontman for Blues Traveler too

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by BHWick on Jul 21, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

He's Totally Strapped

http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/03/09/people-popper-dc-idUSN0823031320070309

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 21, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

not really.

Given that Collins was the jewel of the 2010 trade class, he’s a good reminder that we need to temper our expectations for what the Royals might acquire this week.

I’m mostly excited about acquiring Lorenzo Cain.

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Jul 21, 2011 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

oh, that guy in Omaha?

I’m way more excited about watching Frenchy’s epic 8-pitch at-bats for the foreseeable future. But Omaha is nice too.

Baseball's that swingy stick game, right?

by royalsroyalsroyals on Jul 21, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm surprised that frenchy won't take one for the team

And get traded, then after the season, comes back on his little multi year deal. Not saying I would do that, but if DM is gonna keep frenchy… Why not try to get him to still come back after a couple of months?

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by Lum on Jul 21, 2011 2:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

in-season class

by Freneau on Jul 21, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Watching his motion, it had always surprised me that Collins has any idea where the pitch are going. But it seems that at least on some nights, he has an ability to command the ball. Other times, however, the ball flies out of his hand in any direction it chooses. Ultimately, he’s walking too many and hasn’t been good. But unlike being unable to strike batters out, it’s a problem that he has a good shot to fix. He’s 21. We’ll see.

Also, he’s hasn’t gotten much attention recently because Crow, Holland, Coleman and a renewed Soria have been dominant. Collins has a shot to be a good reliever, but right now, he’s battling Blake Wood for the title of 5th best member of the bullpen. And tiny as he is, Collins can’t get much press as a fifth best reliever.

by kcdc1 on Jul 21, 2011 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

He could end up

going either way.

He is certainly not the first young guy with good stuff and bad control. He may spend some time in the minors before it’s over whether he ultimately gets better or not.

He is in the bigs at 21 and has not completely sucked. There is something to be said for that.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Jul 21, 2011 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

Ozzie rant

http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/862

by LaFLamme on Jul 21, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

I incline towards the Small Sample argument as well

And point towards his minor league track record of success.

I don’t know if he’ll be “great”, but I think he is better than what he has shown the past couple months.

Vi veri veniversum vivus vici

by JKWard on Jul 21, 2011 6:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

tim collins has been our worst bullpen arm that has been here all season

what he becomes? wait and see.

by BeauJackson on Jul 22, 2011 2:41 AM EDT reply actions

The reason I'd be concerned about him improving control...

is that for him to get the velocity he gets, I think a lot of things have to go just right, and when one thing isn’t, his control suffers. It lends itself to, ’there’s always something a little off’.

Well, there’s always Jesse Chavez to make the deal good a good one, right?

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Jul 22, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, It's A

SSS, but so far he has had much better luck getting RHBs out than LHBs. He needs to fix this, but Ned needs to recognize this, too. I still think it comes down to commanding the curve. He seems to be getting better at this recently. I’m far from giving up on him.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 22, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions