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Your Billy Butler Double Play Update

Back in late April we happily noted that Billy Butler had only grounded into one double play. This was, err, noteworthy because Butler led the American League with 32 GIDPs in 2010. That was a rough campaign than came on the heels of two top/bottom ten appearances in 2008-09.

After that nearly GIDP-less April Butler has more or less returned to being his usual self. Since May 1 he's grounded into nine DPs, giving him 10 on the season. He seems likely to end up with, say, 17-20 GIDPs this season, which is a manageable number.

Look, Billy is a slow guy who hits a fair number of ground balls. He's going to hit into double plays unless the Royals hit Chris Getz in front of him all season long. Oh wait... 

Star-divide

Crucially, given that Butler's actually hitting the ball on the ground even more this season (49.5% in '11, career rate of 48%), this drop in GIDPs is completely random. It would be a bigger project to determine if Butler's slight drop in GIDP rate is simply connected to having fewer PAs with a man on first and less than two outs. I-Team, feel free to investigate the splits section at B-R!

Butler has become a strangely divisive figure and I don't want this post to be construed as an anti-Butler piece. I am, on the whole, Team Butler. I do think that prior to this season he's been slightly over-rated by Royals fans, but that has changed this season. The GIDPS, like Butler's lack of speed and lack of a position are issues. They are. It's just important to keep them in proper perspective.

Anyway, there's your double-play update.

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I would jump at that trade

If it were even remotely possible to pull off. The Giants need hitting, but they’ve already got Huff and Belt for 1B, and being in the NL, there’s no DH spot. So what would they do? Try him in right field? It would be a disaster.

Bumgarner has a shot at being a legit young front of the rotation starter. Those are tough to find… Butler for Bumgarner wouldn’t happen unless we added prospects, methinks.

by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 25, 2011 12:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

MadBum is already a TORP

In my opinion.

But yeah. No way that trade would even happen. Not only would it take prospects+billy, SF already has Belt ready to take over 1B.

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

How would Bumgarner do in the AL and not pitching half of his games in that very pitcher friendly park?

And is the performance that we’re seeing from Bumgarner this year what we should expect from the remainder of his career?

I have no problem trading Butler or any player as long as it would improve the team. I’m concerned about Bumgarner in the AL and outside of that park.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

weirdly enough

Bumgarner’s home/road splits

Home: 4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 96K/27BB, 113 IP
Road: 2.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 111K/29BB, 134 1/3 IP

So historically, Bumgarner is not being helped by his home park

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 25, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

by those numbers it looks random

Might not help that the Giants have a horrible defense

by BeauJackson on Jul 25, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

but it's only horrible at home?

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 25, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is a couple of problems with this

Then how would Butler fair in a pitcher friendly park??? Be even worse right? So we are talking about a .350 OBP and a slugging % lower than .400?? He would be garbage. And unlike Butler who is regressing by any statistical measure (OBP, wOBA, OPS, SLG %) Bumgarner is getting better and is 3 years older. They Royals should have drafted him instead of Moose.

And Kaufman is a pitcher friendly park as well; you just can’t tell because our starters suck (our pitching is decent and our starters would be better with Crow AND Soria in the rotation but I digress)

If you want to argue that AT&T is more pitcher friendly than Kaufman you have to say that Butler’s value would be minimized just as much as Bumgarner’s if they were to switch teams. It’s a zero sum game in that respect. And the more you look at the AL being the more dominant league it’s really just a function of pitchers being more equipped to handle a power hitter vs a pitcher hitting. Over time Bumgarner could adjust just as many pitchers have in the past

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

and

Butler is a lot more valuable at home, check the splits..

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 25, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

So is Gordon and Hosmer BY A LOT Maybe KC is a hitters park or these are just young players??

It’s just amazing to me. If you polled the other 28 GM’s in MLB I bet you 80-85% of them would laugh at the prospect of trading Bumgarner for Billy Butler straight up. Thats 24 out of 28.

We are talking about a 21 year old guy with a 3.25 ERA with 207 SO in 247 IP’s with a WHIP of 1.25 in his career. Even if his numbers were worse in KC (and they would be) would you trade him for Billy Butler with a .360 OBP and a .375 SLG% (6 HR’s and 20 2B’s) who is a big negative in the field and on the base paths? HELL NO! This would likely be his numbers playing SF this year, considering his CAREER OPS AWAY FROM HOME IS .750 WTF!

It’s subjective and its bias…people need to wake up

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Butler's Career Line

.297 .361 .450 .811; I think he is better than thisgoing forward, and will at least match this for 2011.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 25, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nah

I was laughed at because for the most part you few are being naive. Look at the content? How can you disagree? The only thing to laugh at is thinking that swapping those players would be a loss for the Royals and I would seriously question your ability to understand baseball if you don’t think that would be a good trade for the Royals considering how bad Butler has been this year (and his cost: about 15 times MORE EXPENSIVE than Bumgarner, etc) . Throw out as many advanced metrics you want but you can’t refute the numbers that are gospel here:

4.0 WAR vs 1.0 WAR

Only on this board would someone be ridiculed for even SUGGESTING this would be a good trade. It would be terrible trade for SF and a great trade for KC. Everyone who is neutral on this subject would understand this, only Butler fans and Royals fans that want to overrate Butler don’t. That’s my point.

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

It WAS proposed ON HERE and of course the alias Billybeingbilly thought it was a terrible trade

What is this site for other than discussing the Royals, the team as a whole and potential deals, etc?

Since you posted right below us in the thread you should know this:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/6/21/2234560/what-can-the-royals-expect-at-the-trade-deadline

It was also discussed at length in the, “Searching for the next TB Rays…” fanpost

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes, i said i see cabrera and betemit being traded.

so far I’m 1 for 2. i said billy for daniel hudson wouldn’t happen. which shows i in no way see a butler for bumgarner trade.

You brought up the trade idea that was far fetched and still is. Spin it however you like but calling out another poster for an idea that you brought up, and has yet to come to fruition, is still lame.

by BeauJackson on Jul 25, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fine

I’m calling out a poster for a trade that I brought up that he hated on our end, which was a shock.

To say Butler and Montgomery (5.35 ERA and NO control) for Bumgarner is one thing to debate, but responding by saying I wouldn’t trade Bumgarner is no good and I would trade Butler for him is nuts.

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bitter, bitter

Good God Man, let it go!

I am laughing at you because you are still ranting about a completely unrealistic trade. You realize that the other team has to want what you offer, right? The Giants have no DH and many options at first base. They have no need for Billy Butler. You cannot trade him for Bumgarner simply because you like Bumgarner and don’t like Billy or Monty! Hell, if you are going to live in this fantasy world you might as well just say we should trade Getz for Lincecum.

If you want to have a discussion, at least begin with an AL team that Billy fits a need for, and follow that up by picking a player or prospects that team might be willing to trade. If you can’t do that, don’t be pissed off if you think someone had an ignorant reply to your ignorant trade.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Jul 25, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

You missed the boat

This trade would NEVER happen…I’m “ranting” about it because some on here WOULDN"T do it on the Royals end even if it was proposed…and that’s whats laughable. The trade paradigm needs to be changed when assessing potential trades if we are going to overrate our own players…

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

and to the 2nd part

Butler will not render anything meaningful in a trade…and with his 30 million extension and an OPS inflated by Kaufman, and with no meaningful position and zero speed he’s not going to bring back much. If he can progress its a different story

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

GIDP Splits

2008: 91 PA, 23 GIDP, 25%

2009: 131 PA, 20 GIDP, 15%

2010: 135 PA, 32 GIDP, 24%

2011: 66 PA, 11 GIDP, 17%

While he has fewer opportunities this year, he also has a lower percentage. But it looks like he’ll be back to his frustrating ways next year…

by RediculousAM on Jul 25, 2011 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

what are these PA totals?

times with men on first and less than 2 outs?

by Freneau on Jul 25, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

yep

B-R already had them sorted out

by RediculousAM on Jul 25, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

yep

B-R already had them sorted out.

by RediculousAM on Jul 25, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

What happened to the team concept,Billy?

I am a pretty big Billy fan. He can rake, he’s young, and I really believe the power will come. DP’’s are a concern, but are a fact of life with Butler. He hits the ball hard, often on the ground and he is slow as molasses. The doubles out weigh the negatives created by the DP’s.

But I am pretty disappointed in some of his recent actions and in his body language. He thinks he should be starting at first base. Billy, you are horrible defensively. Hosmer is very good defensively. Shouldn’t you say that you want whatever is best for the team?

In his body actions he doesn’t look happy, Maybe he has other problems outside of the game or something, but whatever it is this attitude is not good.

As big a fan as I am of him, I think he is pretty replaceable. A committee approach might work and give Maier and Aviles some more AB’s while giving more ‘days off’ in the form of DH to the entire team. Or you could give Robinson the chance he deserves.

If you could get a starter of Baumgarner’s ilk i think you have to do it. Package him with someone and get a frontline starter possibly. Whatever, starting pitching is what is needed.

Oh, and go out and sign Yu Darvish also.

by Bryan Larson on Jul 25, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Yes

Trade Billy for Bumgarner. Sign Yu Darvish as well.

It’s that easy.

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I

doubt Billy gets a good young starter. More likely is a AAA arm from a team deep in pitching or maybe a couple of AA pitching prospects, which even still be too high. Another JaKKKKe Odorizzi might be the most to hope for.

Best for all might be for Billy to stop pouting about losing 1st to first Kila, then Hoz, then worry less about his declining OBP and concentrate more on getting a little lift on the ball and change his swing from a Chris Getz to an Alex Gordon. His homer the other night was an example, Billy’s a big, strong kid and when he chooses to hit with a little uppercut he can park a pitch in the cheap seats and do some damage. Ned Yost suggested he’ld rather have Billy as a .270/20/100 guy, basically Frenchy without the speed, arm, and defense. I agree with him. As is, Billy’s a .285/12/65 guy who walks a lot and scores or drives in runs at about the same rate per plate appearance as Matt Treanor.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

It is definitely not that easy...

Giants will never offer that trade.

But Darvish is available, and there is a possible package that could be put together to get help.

Butler’s value on this team is lower than it would be on another team. Therefore you can use that value difference to upgrade your team.

by Bryan Larson on Jul 25, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Um according to people on this side

I"M AN IDIOT FOR SUGGESTING IT when its crystal clear

2 + 2 = 4 (fact)
Bumgarner > Butler (fact)

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Clearly you are

I wouldn’t offer it…if you paid attention it was Butler AND Montgomery for Bumgarner that I proposed. But of course you didn’t bother to look at the thread and wanted to take a shot at me for no reason, again.

If you are arguing its a bad trade and would never be offered you are agreeing with my post last night that ITS A JOKE to think Butler is better than Bumgarner and the trade would ever be considered.

What is absolutely dense it NOT ACCEPTING the potential trade if it was offered, especially since over the last month Butler’s SLG % has come closer and closer to sub .400 for a 30 million dollar albatross of a defender and base runner. And that is the moral of the story that I was referring to

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

i don't work in fantasy land.

you first propsed butler/cabrera for bumgarner/sanchez, guess i didn’t read that.

Thus, it seems you think butler is equal to bumgarner, but whatever.

by BeauJackson on Jul 25, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah no reason to get testy over all this hypothetical stuff

 I think we are on the same page.

I meant Butler and Cabrera for either Bumgarner or Sanchez.

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 25, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could see them doing that for Sanchez

His control has flown out the window.
But then at that rate, it becomes a bad trade for the Royals.
Plus I think Sanchez only has 1 or 2 more controlled years

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

All well and good Will

But is he smiling? Is he happy for the team? Focus on what is important to winning games please.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 25, 2011 10:20 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Focus on what is important to winning games please.

41 Rs, 41 RBIs. Billy’s attitude, like Zack’s last year when he was mailing it in, might be important to winning games.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yea

It would suck to have Greinke and his bad attitude and his 3.34 FIP this year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 25, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

FIP

doesn’t win games. With his 5-something ERA and last year’s attitude he might be able to equal his ten wins here again. Of course, his bad attitude had him demanding a trade. I think I’ld rather have Escobar this year than Greinke and Yuni.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a joke, right?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 25, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

No, he's serious

He really believes that nonsense.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then

feel free to marshal your stats and disprove me. I’m sure you can find an algorithm to demonstrate that Greinke didn’t really suggest that he’ld given up last year or that he didn’t demand a trade. FIP is intentionally devoid of context, performance on the field is within context.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

FIP is intentionally devoid of context, performance on the field is within context.

FIP describes the pitcher’s performance on the field. ERA has elements of a pitcher’s performance, along with the defense behind him and often the reliever(s) which come into the game after him. That’s why ERA is a poor descriptor of a pitcher’s performance (similar to, but not as bad as W/L record).

And no Greinke didn’t say that he gave up last year. And yes he demanded a trade, but I don’t see how that is relevant to him winning games or not. You assume that his attitude affected his performance in a particular way. But that’s just guesswork. You should have less faith in your own abilities as an amateur psychologist.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

This.

“Greinke, 27, was the 2009 American League Cy Young winner but slumped last season to 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA. He admitted he often lacked motivation because of the Royals’ inability to put together a winning club.

Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/12/19/2531689/royals-trade-greinke-to-brewers.html#ixzz1T8vTKBVx

Maybe you don’t live around here, but Greinke’s motivation and attitude were questioned.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, “lacking motivation” means that he mailed it in and didn’t try to pitch well? Yes, I’m sure his “motivation and attitude were questioned,” mostly by lunkheaded fans who were cranky that he didn’t follow up a CY season with another CY season. “How dare you do that to us, Zack!”

Greinke pitched well in 2010 by measures which are much more telling than ERA.

3.34 FIP
3.60 xFIP
3.50 tERA
3.67 SIERA

And that was enough for a 5.2 WAR season. That’s an excellent season. If that’s how he pitches when he’s unmotivated, doesn’t try hard and “mails it in” (which I don’t buy for a second), then I’ll take that in a second. And yes, that’s worth more than Alcides Escobar. And that doesn’t mean I didn’t like the trade. I liked it and still do.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think I’ld rather have Escobar this year than Greinke and Yuni.

Would you rather have Greinke once every five days with Yuni at SS than to have Greinke with his slightly under six innings per start, even with his glorious FIP which seems based on higher K-BB but slightly offset by his elevated HR/9 and ignoring that his higher BABIP likely results from a higher LD%? I think that is a fair question. FIP looks useful, I guess, but not sure I’m seeing why HRs are so special, while the ball that came up two feet short and bounced off the wall doesn’t seem considered.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you’re talking one year only with cost being neutral, yeah I’d rather have Greinke and Yuni than Escobar. I would immediately release Yuni and replace him with…whoever (and I guess that would mean Aviles). And yes Greinke pitching like he did last year, would likely end up giving up many fewer runs and thus help the Royals win more games.

FIP looks useful, I guess, but not sure I’m seeing why HRs are so special, while the ball that came up two feet short and bounced off the wall doesn’t seem considered.

That’s one of the reasons why you should also look at xFIP (and more). There is no single pitching stat that tells you all you need to know about how good a pitcher is or how well he performed.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

But

xFIP is hr balanced in some way, so doesn’t add information, does it? Greinke’s xFIP is 0.86 lower than his FIP, but balls keep leaving the park, which may help contribute to Greinke’s unspecial ERA.

“There is no single pitching stat that tells you all you need to know about how good a pitcher is or how well he performed.”

LD% seems useful, higher LD% seeming to correlate with BABIP, Greinke up .027 BABIP over last year while his LD% is up 4.2 to 22%. K-BB/9 could have some use, TBIP, total bases per inning pitched would also have information. I was thinking of the Ray’s game the other night, Rays’ pitcher struck out the side in the 1st, no walks, no homers, that would be a 0.000 FIP for that inning, would it?

Thanks for the help.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

You are a living caricature of someone FJM would rail on

Your anti-sabermetrics shtick is 6 years past its prime

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've had it with Jim.

I thought he was being skeptical but now I see he’s just being a dick.

I must slightly agree with him about FIP. It’s a good stat, but of course not the only one you look at.

"He was traded by Oakland for David DeJesus
To be the fifth starter for Dayton and Yost
His minor league stats made it seem he was ready
But during spring training his arm looked like toast" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Jul 25, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

FIP is definitely not the only one you look at

But the problem is when people think FIP is merely a predictor and ERA is the “real deal” stat that tells you the meaningful things that really happened. ERA tells you something that happened, but much of it was completely outside of the pitcher’s control. So yes, look at more than FIP, but that should be stats like xFIP, tERA and SIERA, and with only a dash of ERA.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

We agree

There are lots of things to look at, from K/BB to SIERA.

"He was traded by Oakland for David DeJesus
To be the fifth starter for Dayton and Yost
His minor league stats made it seem he was ready
But during spring training his arm looked like toast" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Jul 25, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would rather have Escobar then Grienke and Yuni as well.

Their relative value is not even close.
Equal WAR value, and Royals are paying 15 million less.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 25, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Here's something I'd like addressed:

Now, to be clear, I’m not suggesting Butler is better than Hosmer defensively, but here goes:

Would it kill Ned to let Billy play 1B once a week or so? Would it have killed Ned to let Butler get the majority of the starts in the NL games, seeing as how he is a better offensive player than Hosmer (at this point, anyway)? Yes, Billy should be handling things better, rather than acting like a 5 year old and pouting about it – but there is nothing saying you can’t manage different personalities in different manners. In fact, I would RECOMMEND they do that for any and all players in order to get the most out of everybody. Some guys need a kick in the ass, and some need hugs. Billy needs to be coddled. He’s talented enough, and his potential is great enough, to warrant that treatment, IMHO.

One final thought – take a look at Hosmer’s defensive numbers. Last time I checked at fangraphs, Hosmer was at -6.0 runs defensively. May not jive with what we think we see – but there it is. Yes, too small a sample, etc. etc. Just pointing it out.

If strikeouts are indeed fascist - then find me some starters that believe in fascism

by loyal2sdad on Jul 25, 2011 10:24 AM EDT reply actions  

I suggested that and Gross(est) agreed

Once a week at first base would keep Billy sharp, rest Hos so he can play 162 games, and increase Billy’s perceived trade value. It doesn’t seem like Billy is pouting, anyway. He has nothing to pout about. He’s a starting player hitting in the middle of the order on an MLB team. He’s just having a slightly off year. His minimum results are 2 WAR/season, a solid starter, and his maximum results are a lot higher. I wager we haven’t seen them yet.

"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Jul 25, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

well Yost

threw him under a bus with that Astronaunt comment, and i imgine any major leaguer would not like that comment , these are highly competitive people and your manager pretty much says you suck, not what you want to hear

by alaskanchieef on Jul 25, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

and there was the time that

Ned mentioned Billy not starting in NL parks, and telling the media before he told Butler

I’d be surprised if Ned and Billy were still together in 2012. Because Yost has done his share to undermine their relationship

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 25, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

are you suggesting Hosmer isn't a defensive god?

he does the olay sweep like no other (aside from when he does it and the ball falls out)

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 25, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not playing Butler at 1B

This was already happening when Kila was in KC – even on Kila’s off days, they wouldn’t start Butler at 1B, even having Gordon play there a few times. It was weird then and it’s weird now. Ned’s stubborn attitude seems like a real likely culprit, but GMDM must have a say in that, too.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 25, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

If a small sample of stats disagrees with your amateur scouting eye, then the stat must be wrong at all times in all uses, regardless of sample. Right?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not by UZR

Most of that -6.0 comes from his range (-5.1). But it bears repeating that a full season of defensive stats is the equivalent of about 2 seasons of hitting stats. So the 45% of a season of defensive stats Hosmer has put up so far are the equivalent of a little under one month of hitting stats. Long story short, we’re talking about a small sample of data here. Whether good or bad, small samples of defensive data aren’t to be relied upon. There’s going to be a lot of random variance in tiny samples of data like that.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

TYPO CORRECTION
But it bears repeating that a full season of defensive stats is the equivalent of about 2 seasons months of hitting stats

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

If a small sample of stats disagrees with your amateur scouting eye, then the stat must be wrong at all times in all uses, regardless of sample. Right?

Do you think Hosmer a worse defender with worse range than Billy? My amateur scouting eye seems more in line with what the real scouts think than with the fangraph number.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

The key is "small sample of stats"

If Getz has 1 AB and gets 1 hit, is he a better hitter than Gordon who has 1 AB and got out? By your logic, the stat of whether someone got a hit is now untrustworthy because it doesn’t agree with your scouting eye.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 25, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

We

aren’t talking a single play here, so you kind of fail on this one, but maybe Will will give you a cookie?

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

We're talking about the equivalent of less than a single month of hitting stats (at least for Hosmer)

Can a poor hitter have better hitting stats than a decent hitter over a given month? Do you really not understand what we’re talking about here, or are you just being intentionally obtuse?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

At least you seem to understand that "1" is too small of a sample size. Progress.

So would be 2, and 3, and 4 at-bats. Or fielding plays. You wouldn’t judge a player or a stat by a handful of plays, obviously. How many at-bats or games played would it take before you stop trusting your “scouting eye” and trust the advanced stats?

My amateur scouting eye seems more in line with what the real scouts think than with the fangraph number
10, 20, 100, 200? Well take that number of games and double it for defensive stats (at least) before you throw it out because your scouting eye is so much better; until then, the UZR number from Fangraphs is difficult to trust fully – as in, what is defensive talent and what is random noise?

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 25, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many at-bats or games played would it take before you stop trusting your "scouting eye" and trust the advanced stats?

Quite a few to distrust Hos’ size, quickness, footwork, and athleticism that have Getz claim he can play another step or two over because of Hoz’ range and Escobar say that he will try throws to Hoz that he’ld eat with another 1b. Hoz has been highly considered on defense for some years now, not like he just popped out of nowhere.

“until then, the UZR number from Fangraphs is difficult to trust fully – as in, what is defensive talent and what is random noise?”

Agree. Joe Po mentioned that John (?) Dewan has talked about improvements in metrics based on batted ball speed and defender’s quickness at covering ground. Rany mentioned that the Royals had bought defense fx equipment for their in-house nerds. Until the stats get better, eyeballs have a place and I’ll trust mine over a fangraph’s number that shows Billy a better defender.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe your grandchildren will understand

Clearly you’ve given up.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is more than one graph over there

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 1:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

In a small sample of stats, a poor hitter can have better stats than a good hitter, right? Does that mean those hitting stats are poor? The issue here is sample size. I’ll re-post what I posted above. Read it. Hopefully you will internalize the concepts. I doubt it.

…it bears repeating that a full season of defensive stats is the equivalent of about 2 seasons of hitting stats. So the 45% of a season of defensive stats Hosmer has put up so far are the equivalent of a little under one month of hitting stats. Long story short, we’re talking about a small sample of data here. Whether good or bad, small samples of defensive data aren’t to be relied upon. There’s going to be a lot of random variance in tiny samples of data like that.

Sample size must always be taken into account when doing any statistical analysis.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 25, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I get

sample sizes, I also get that decisions need to made on a shorter time frame than four years, so until a sufficient sample size is obtained, something else needs to be used to make decisions. Since Billy’s numbers are better over a significant sample size, do you play him til he drops dead of old age, as Hoz would never be able to get his sample size high enough? That suggests that you are probably more comfortable with veteran free agents to build a team, rather than rookies, because the vets have sufficient sample size.

by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 25, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Will, you forgot one factor in explaining the lower GIDP rate this year

He is in the best shape of his life.™

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jul 25, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Seems that the beloved player of a year would become the behated year next year

e.g. Butler, Greinke…etc

I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Jul 25, 2011 11:07 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Next year we'll all be hating Frenchy

wait

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Didn't the Mayans do that?

Annoint somebody a Sun King (or something) for a year, only to kill them at year’s end?

by kansasjohn on Jul 25, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Something like that.

The Mayans were kind of weird.

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review

by Lum on Jul 25, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

That was the Aztecs

The grossest part was that they then proceeded to flay the guy, and people who deserved special honor were allowed to wear his skin.

"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Jul 25, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Of all things, I have read

that the Aztecs reserved the drinking of alcohol (pulque, I presume) to the priests, and that the common people were forbidden to drink. Don’t take this one to the bank.

"He was traded by Oakland for David DeJesus
To be the fifth starter for Dayton and Yost
His minor league stats looked like he was ready
But during spring training his arm looked like toast" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Jul 25, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

he still seems to be playing hard

I’m glad he is disappointed, they should all be disappointed at some level.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jul 25, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Me, too.

Imagine what Billy detractors would say if he smiled and acted like nothing was wrong.

by kansasjohn on Jul 25, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's very strange to me that Billy can't hit the damn ball in the air consistently

When he gets the ball in the air, you always feel like good things will happen. He has the strength to lob the ball over the left field wall without making perfect contact. And his outs in the air are often hard hit balls that look like doubles off the bat.

Billy just needs to stop pounding the ball into the dirt. Grounders up the middle might pad his batting average, but that’s not his best game.

by kcdc1 on Jul 25, 2011 12:02 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

he just needs to listen to his hitting coach

oh yeah

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 25, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm as big a Butler fan as anyone

and I find him frustrating as hell. It’s not his overall numbers, it’s that he never seems to get things done when it matters. Although that leadoff single the other night was pretty huge.

by LaFLamme on Jul 25, 2011 12:14 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm hoping Fritz the damn Nazi

who called the cops on us over our air-conditioner is enjoying a combo CD I made of all of Johnny Cash’s American Recordings stuff. It’s really depressing. And really loud, because you can hear it halfway down the street. I know, because I just checked.

Next time this bastard goes on vacation he’s going to find three dozen stinking rotten broken eggs on his terrace when he gets back.

Don’t fuck with me.

"He was traded by Oakland for David DeJesus
To be the fifth starter for Dayton and Yost
His minor league stats made it seem he was ready
But during spring training his arm looked like toast" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Jul 25, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

That's A Great

Box set. I have it on my computer.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 25, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Billys speed is improving....

Drink every time Yost or any Royals announcer uses the word “command” or Frank giggles or anyone comments that eventually Billy will hit for power.

Some day...Billy will hit for power...and run for speed.

by GrassyKnoll on Jul 25, 2011 1:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

His speed around the bases

seems to be better than his speed out of the box and down to first. It astounds me sometimes how long it takes him to get down the line.

by LaFLamme on Jul 25, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

sorry LF I was just being a wise ass

He’s slow….like special olympics slow. No offense to the special Olympics contestants intended.

Some day...Billy will hit for power...and run for speed.

by GrassyKnoll on Jul 25, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Billy Butler is Edgar Martinez...

…without the power or success in the clutch. (I think that makes him John Kruk.)

I LIKE Billy, but lets not pretend he is anything beyond a six spot hitter on a good team: and all he does is, most of the time, hit.

Nobody wants such an inflexible player with slightly above average offensive skills.

by Zeke_in_KC on Jul 26, 2011 3:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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