Are We Heading To A Weird 2011 MLB Trade Deadline?
by Freneau on Jul 27, 2011 12:30 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
Email
PrintThe last two trades have been odd. The Nationals and Blue Jays, two teams not really in races, have acquired players from teams that nominally should be buying, not selling, the Reds and White Sox. While these moves may or may not have their own logic, they certainly appear, at least superficially, to be backwards.
- Nationals Acquire Jonny Gomes | FanGraphs Baseball
- Alex Anthopoulos: Reminding Us That We Could Do Our Job Better - Beyond the Box Score
The trade deadline is one of the funnest weeks of the year, but it's also almost always a disapointment. Our Royals, of course, are almost never buyers and usually they don't have much to sell. Dayton Moore has been all over the place, mixing in years of extreme action with years in which he's done very little.
Perhaps the strange opening salvos are a harbinger of an interesting and fun week. We'll see...
186 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
We have what nobody needs
Back-end starting pitching, and Frenchy and Cabrera in the same market at Beltran, Upton and Rasmus.
by moregritplease on Jul 27, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
It's weird
Also because NFL FA is overlapping it for the first time ever
Just saw Edwin Jackson to the Jays who might flip him for Rasmus? We should get in on that! They want a left handed reliever…how about they take Melky, Montgomery AND Collins for Rasmus
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 27, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions
I wish
The Chiefs would send some of their salary cap money to the Royals. They’re not going to use it anyway!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 27, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I believe they're required to spend
something like 99% of this year’s salary cap on player salaries.
by Seth_C on Jul 27, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Two trades just went down
Sox send P Edwin Jackson and 3B Mark Teahen to the Jays for P Zach Stewart and P Jason Frasor
Jays send P Edwin Jackson, P Octavio Dotel and P Mark Rzepcinski to the Cards for OF Colby Rasmus.
I wish we had Anthropolous as our GM.
*-note lots of misspellings in this post.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
So to sum up
Anthopoulos turned a decent but not great pitching prospect, a soon-to-be free agent marginal reliever, a decent righty reliever with a somewhat reasonable club option for 2012, a pretty good lefty reliever’s three arbitration years, and something less than $10 million in bad contract obligations into Colby Rasmus.
Anthopoulos is just killing it right now.
by Gopherballs on Jul 27, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
correction
Not that it changes much, but Rzepczynski is under club control for 4 more years, not 3.
Remember this when people say
“How do you expect Dayton to make good trades when he has nothing but crap to trade?”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 27, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Full trade now:
Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters for Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Dotel and Corey Patterson.
This is the kind of trade I would “bash” 102win for. But its real. Hilarious. My apologies 102win, your proposals are no nuttier than real life.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
It's insane
I want Colby Rasmus for free!
This feels like playing Monopoly when someone gives away the boardwalk+park place monopoly in exchange for a third railroad, and you’re pissed at the person for giving up boardwalk for so little, but more pissed at yourself for not getting involved.
It's like a fantasy trade where you swap two part time players and a WW pickup for a stud
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 27, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
These are the type of trades that Moore will never make
He holds onto his guys as if he were in the desert and they were his last swallow of water.
Someone said yesterday “At least Hochevar turned out better than Andrew Miller.” No, not really, because the Tigers packaged him with Cameron Maybin and turned him into Miguel Cabrera. Luke Hochevar will be cost controlled suck right here until he is 30. He will never turn potential into players, he will keep them as long as he can.
For every Alex Gordon who rewards the patience, there will be a Kyle Davies albatross, because he still sees potential there. There will be "his guys’ like Getz blocking upcoming talent because he likes the way they play.
He even hoards guys that he doesn’t like. If you know you are not going to use Kila after 2008, why not trade him before others see the limitations that you see? Why are we keeping Clint Robinson now?
Until the Royals can decide which of the talent that they acquire will not pan out, and trade them while they still have some potential value, and until he can get rid of some of his favorites who are no longer prospects, we will not have a playoff contender here.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
by KHAZAD on Jul 27, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 11 recs
If this post had a picture of some boobies, it would be a perfect post.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Jul 27, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
But it still works well
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
I vote we all continue to use this line out of context
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
by Lum on Jul 27, 2011 2:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I thought this was becoming a meme that I had totally missed
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Ask, and ye shall receive
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Jul 27, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Dayton Moore sucks
You don’t really need to spell it out
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 27, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
And don’t forget that Yunel Escobar trade which was probably the most lopsided trade last year…..they traded our Tim Collins and a somewhat decent SS prospect for Yunel and then signed him for 5 million a year for the next few years.
WTF! Is this GM that good or are other GM’s (like ours) fucking terrible?
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 27, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Royals only held onto Mark Teahen
they would have Colby Rasmus now.
by Gopherballs on Jul 27, 2011 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
yes, this is why we should never trade anyone
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Jul 27, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well played
thisisabaseballblog.wordpress.com
by AlexGordonHRmagnet on Jul 27, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think OOTP would reject the trade
batter nine you sucky
by marbotty on Jul 27, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Chris Getz, Jason Kendall, Mike Aviles
For a Bed, Bath & Beyond gift basket and a pretzel from the mall.
by LaFLamme on Jul 27, 2011 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
throw in a Cinnabon, and I'm sold
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 27, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless it's the Annie maie pretzles like the ones at the mall ... Hmmm delicious
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 27, 2011 3:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How about
cinnamon bun earrings?
Toronto is set up very well for the near future
For 2012, Toronto has a little less than $35-$40 million in payroll commitments (excluding arbitration eligibles), but that money is mostly spent on the right guys: Bautista, Romera, Lind, Escobar, and the Teahen tax for acquiring Rasmsus. Morrow (arb 2) and Villanueva (arb 3) are the only significant arbitration eligibles, but neither will break the bank.
And Keith Law has Toronto as the #2 farm system
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
by averagegatsby on Jul 27, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
and lawrie's ready to come up and mash
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 27, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
God Baltimore might be a 55 win team in a couple years with how unbelievably stacked the other 4 AL East teams could potentially be.
Killing time until time kills me
55 might be generous....
its entirely possibly that 4 of the top 5 teams in baseball will be in that division soon
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 27, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
with this market
it sure is a good thing that Dayton is keeping his pumpkin futures until January
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!
Let's give Moore until Sunday
but excellent use of a Homerism.
there's a difference between how he talks about promoting prospects and trades
for one, he needs someone else to pull off a trade. His record on trades is that he stands pat in July with guys like DeJesus (pre-2010) and Teahen.
It seems wasteful for Dayton to waste half the return for Greinke within 7 months of the deal
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!
sure
but with regard to this market, let’s see if he holds onto these pumpkins past Halloween.
Zach Wheeler for Beltran?
Maybe there is some hope that Melky can net a decent prospect.
Yea, that seems a steep price
You would think the asking price for Melky being lower will be attractive.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yep
Plus the Mets are getting two other players in the deal, though who knows if they’re prospects of any kind.
Even if the Mets kicked in every penny of Beltran's salary, that trade is nutty
That is unless Wheeler has a torn rotator cuff or something.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
they are picking up all the salary
that’s why they were asking for big time prospects.
I don't know if Sabean really values prospects that much
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
he should...
he just won a WS based on his homegrown talent
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 27, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
And Cody Ross turning into albert pujols for a month
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
by Lum on Jul 27, 2011 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
TINSTAPP
Not to mention, Wheeler’s walking 5 per 9ip. That’s not exactly a recipe for success, no matter how highly valued his arm may be. I think the guy’s overrated, personally.
batter nine you sucky
Perhaps
But its two months of Beltran. Beats Teahen and Buck if you know what I mean.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Have you forgotten
the greatness that was Mike Wood?
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Oh my God, are the Cardinals stupid!
Yes, I get that they are sorta going “all in” on 2011 – but that trade is ridiculous!
Can’t wait to see Rasmus tear it up in Toronto going forward.
What’s weird – not only has Edwin Jackson been an average pitcher in his career so far – he is eligible to be a free agent after this season! I suppose, if the Cardinals see potential there, OK – but for chrissakes get permission to negotiate an extension with him BEFORE you pull the trigger! Otherwise, this is just a horrible trade on Cardinals part.
We were speculating Francis and Soria straight up for Colby. That certainly would have been an infinitely smarter move, if indeed the Cardinals are trying to go “all in” on 2011.
If strikeouts are indeed fascist - then find me some starters that believe in fascism
You’re right on all of the above. But the Cardinals do have exclusive rights to negotiate with him for the remainder of the season. So if they really want him, they could throw a bunch of money at him and probably get an extension done before he hits the open market. That isn’t to say there isn’t significant risk that he’ll not really negotiate much and just wait for free agency. His agent, BTW: Scott Boras.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Semi-flat
Carlos Gonzalez signed an extension this year. I think Boras and his clients are more against young, cost controlled players signing long-term deals that buy at FA years. I would think that he’s softer on deals like this one would be where it is right before he’d go into free agency, so he’d essentially be getting FA money. But he would probably want multiple bidders to push the price up. That would be the smart way to get the most money.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
A team would be crazy to offer as much now as it would in free agency
Boras is smart, but any team bidding against itself is even stupider than a team that trades Rasmus for 3 months of Jackson (and the right to negotiate with Jackson)
by KSinDC on Jul 27, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But these kinds of extensions aren’t uncommon. Multiple players who would have been FA’s at the end of the year signed long-term contract extensions this year, as happens every year.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, I'm just saying a team should never make its best offer with no other bidders
Players have to be worried about becoming Jermaine Dye if they go the FA route, so they ought to be willing to take some discount to get the certainty of a contract.
jackson may very well be pujols insurance...
there’s no way they’ll be able to afford both jackson and pujols this offseason….its about to get very ugly in cardinals land…this makes me smile
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 27, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Lisa: Dad, do you know what schadenfreude is?
Homer: [sarcastic] No, I do not know what schadenfreude is, please tell me because I am dying to know.
Lisa: It’s a German word for shameful joy, taking pleasure in the suffering of others.
Homer: Oh, come on, Lisa. I’m just glad to see him fall flat on his butt! He’s usually all happy and comfortable, and surrounded by loved ones, and it makes me feel…what’s the opposite of that shameful joy thing of yours?
Lisa: Sour grapes.
Homer: Boy, those Germans have a word for everything.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 27, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Based on farm systems, does this mean the upcoming playoffs will feature the
Blue Jays, Rays, Royals, Indians and Mariners in the AL.
And the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates and D-Backs in the NL.
Bud Selig is gonna crap his pants.
Mariners don't really have a good farm system
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
by Lum on Jul 27, 2011 2:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
it was pretty good before ackley and pineda came up
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 27, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Rangers should be dominant in the west for some time
Especially after we trade Greinke to them.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 27, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Except that they lose Holland and Profar in that deal.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 27, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
We have the best farm system ever
there wont even be a playoffs in the future
by Freneau on Jul 27, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Somewhat OT...
…Matt Stairs DFA’d to make room for Gomes.
Hope this isn’t the end for Stairs..but it probably is. One of my personal faves.
Killing time until time kills me
But he is so close to Mike Morgan's record for "most teams played for
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think he would look pretty good in a clubhouse leadership position at the K
veteran leadership, grit all over the place, I even believe he would take naked BP
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Wow
Please warn me before you give me the mental image of Matt Stairs naked.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Doesn't he hold some sort of pinch-hitting record?
I’m sure someone like that can find a home.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
yes he does
Most pinch-hitting home runs
thisisabaseballblog.wordpress.com
by AlexGordonHRmagnet on Jul 27, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
so...
are we willing to say that the Mets just got more for a more expensive, much older, much worse Beltran than the Royals did 7 years ago?
Can't believe the pro-AA bias out there
I"m not sure how the Rasmus trade is any better than what Dayton pulled off with Atlanta this season. Look how fun Collins is to watch pitch!
Also, Rasmus would be blocked in KC by Melky, Cain, and Lough.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 27, 2011 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Rasmus wouldn't fit in KC unless he did two things.
1. Bunt more often
2. Learn EXPERT POSITIONING
Killing time until time kills me
3. Get into the best shape of his career.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
And smile more
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 27, 2011 3:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And bat control
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 27, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus hands
and plus hands
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 27, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
How many assists does he have?
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Jul 27, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
and Francoeur
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!
So the Cardinals essentially traded Rasmus for Edwin Jackson, a reliever, and Corey Patterson.
Could we have gotten him for Chen, Melky, and [insert a reliever]? Criminal if DM didn’t at least try to match the offer for him…
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think that would have done it
I think the Cards would value Jackson much more highly than Chen and are likely trying to negotiate a long-term deal with him.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Prospects
If we were willing to effectively trade prospects for Rasmus.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
And we would have had to re-acquire Teahen
Who could replace Getz at 2B!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 27, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
zack stewart was #44 on law's prospect list coming into the season...
John Lamb was 41. neither was in the top 50 update. Not sure why the Sox wanted so much for Jackson or why they didn’t deal him for Rasmus.
Williams said the Sox needed to drop payroll
That why they had to move Teahan. Picking up Rasmus’ contract might have been trouble.
Stewart's stock has fallen a bit
He’s repeating AA and not doing it very well and he seems to be destined to be a reliever.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/07/26/3038569/cabreras-recent-surge-might-make.html
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I really wouldn't mind keeping Melky, but Frenchy needs to be traded, or MITCH needs to go to make space for Cain.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
This was my worry for both the Melky and Frenchy signings
Many said that these were low risk signings because they were cheap and then maybe if one of them had a good season, he could be traded for something. My worry was that if one or both had a good season, it would convince Moore to keep them around (in the case of Melky) or give a multi-year contract to (in the case of Francoeur). We might be seeing that risk turn into reality. Still hard to say.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
If he really keeps both of them, then you deserve huge credit for calling that
It would be a hugely stupid, deeply irrational move. To predict it six months out would be very impressive.
I agree with you
will wait until Sunday night to worry about it.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Players are worth more at the trade deadline than in the offseason
I was going to do a post but never got around to it, but these trades (Rasmus for Jackson, Wheeler for Beltran) make it that baseball values players very differently near the trade deadline than in the offseason. Our assumptions on how much players should bring back in trade at the deadline need to be adjusted upward (and assumptions about the offseason need to be adjusted downward)
I would need to see a lot of data to buy that
You may well be right, but I’d need to see it. And it would take looking at a whole bunch of trades.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
There are several studies
Nate Silver has a good one. I’ll try to put it together once my wife is done with the bar. This week is just too crazy for us.
I thought with prospects increasing in value, the effect might be disappearing, but it just seems to be shifting form (e.g. seeing players like Rasmus dealt instead of prospects)
So when you say “players are worth more at the trade deadline,” I assume you are saying that a trade in July of a rental (becomes FA after the season) gets back more than a trade in the offseason of a player who becomes a FA at the end of the coming season. In short, you get more for trading 2 months of a player to a contender in a stretch run than 6 months of a player to a team that doesn’t know if it will be in contention. Is that what you’re saying? Or are you saying more than that?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
that's what i'm saying
The last two months are worth more to a contender at the deadline than the full year is worth at the beginning of the year.
I think you've got a cause-effect problem...
usually off-season deals have some other catalyst behind them (ie Greinke) which drive down the value of the asset. gotta factor in possible impairment into your valuation.
If a catalyst like that did drive down assets' value, it would hurt all teams selling at the deadline
More importantly, as long as you have at least two bidders, that mechanism should have no effect on the final price.
if greinke says during the off-season...
“I want out”, that drives down his value. that doesn’t normally happen with these deadline deals.
No it does not drive down his value
And teams out of contention are just as motivated to move players at the deadline as teams with a player who says he wants out
the other teams knowing that you have to deal someone...
definitely hurts your leverage.
It hurts you if there's only one team interested
If there are two teams interested, it has no effect. That’s why the Mets (who had to deal Beltran) got such a good deal. They got other bidders to bid against the Giants to drive up the Giants price.
you're assuming rational behavior
it’s not always a safe assumption in the real world, much less the world of baseball GMs.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 27, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That's true
That’s why I’m also falling back on the point that GMs at the deadline are also motivated sellers.
but that base-line price is lower...
because you HAVE to make the deal. Part of the value in a trade is being able to walk away.
How is that different than any team at the deadline?
The Mets have to move Beltran just as much as the Royals had to move Greinke. The minimum price the seller will accept only matters if there’s only one buyer.
As long as there are two or more bidders, the bidder only needs to decide whether beating the other bid would be a positive-sum trade for his team. What it does to the seller is immaterial.
no, the Mets didn't HAVE to move him...
the Giants felt like they HAD to have him.
by Bart41 on Jul 27, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Glad we traded DJ last winter instead of this summer
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If (and it's a big if) the injury is responsible for his collapse in value
then Dayton made the right decision in moving him when he did, and he did a pretty great job salvaging value.
I dunno
I think I’d rather have the draft pick compensation than Mazzaro/Marks.
But I guess if we keep DJ, we don’t sign Melky and get the huge bounty of prospects we’re about to get for him.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I just wish Allard hadn't given DDJ that no-trade clause for 2008 and 2009
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 27, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be real worried DDJ would accept arbitration after the year he's having
Plus, I’m sure he’s no longer close to Type A status. One supplemental pick (assuming that even still exists after this season) isn’t worth that much
One supplemental pick (assuming that even still exists after this season) isn’t worth that much
While, I recognize the average value for such picks isn’t high, I’d much rather have the upside potential of such a draft pick than the low ceiling, easily replaceable talent of guys like Mazzaro and Marks.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, the average value isn’t high. Hell the average value of most first round picks isn’t that high. But you have to take into account that this is a cheap way to get high ceiling players, even though the vast majority won’t reach that ceiling. Guys like Mazzaro and Marks, however, are low-ceiling players who might end up giving you a little production from the back of the rotation or the 7th reliever spot, but that kind of production is easy to find through freely available talent.
I’d take a chance a high ceiling talent over a great chance at low-ceiling, low grade contribution from a 5th SP/7th reliever.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That's fair
I feel like if we turned DDJ into nothing (the most likely result for any draft pick), people would be pissed, but you’re right that the two distributions (young grade C pitchers and supplemental draft picks) have much different shapes even if their means are about the same. I’m not sure I agree just because a draft pick couldn’t really help us in time for our window to contend (2013-15 or so), but it’s a reasonable position.
As an aside, I don't believe in speculative windows
We really don’t know if our window of contention will be 2013-15. There’s a good case to be made that it might be, but many things could happen to change that. If too many prospects don’t pan out, or take a longish time to develop and/or if Moore wastes some big money on FA’s that flop, the window will move. So I don’t think decisions like the one we’re talking about should be made based on a speculative window 2+ years in the future.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
I think a franchise like the Royals has no choice but to concentrate its resources into windows. It can’t possibly hope to sustain the level of spending it would need to compete year after year. If our long-term average isn’t going to be good enough, we can still contend if we manage for a sine-wave pattern of performance. If the talent doesn’t come together in one of those peaks, then we don’t make the playoffs, but that’s the same outcome as if we manage for the long-term.
I’m sort of surprised you don’t like the window theory.
by KSinDC on Jul 27, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think a franchise like the Royals has no choice but to concentrate its resources into windows.
The problem is identifying windows. Now if the team had become good, then you could look to how long they have various key players under team control and see when a window might be. But here, we’re talking about guesstimating when a window is going to open. And right now, the Royals aren’t even a stone’s throw from the window. We’re sitting on the Xth season in a row where they don’t even sniff .500. And I think guessing that the window will open in 2013 is too speculative to use as a basis for choosing whether you acquire someone who might help a little in the short-term (Mazzaro) vs. a long shot draft pick who might help a lot several years down the line.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Even if you just arbitrarily selected the windows, it would be a more optimal strategy
Target a 3/4 year window and just plan on having as many players in their mid-late 20s / arb years filling the team as possible, knowing that you’ll trade them all away for a set of prospects after the targetted window date ends. You concentrate your resources in those years and take your licks in the other years. If you have bad luck in the window, then you still gave it your best shot.
If you have bad luck in the window, then you still gave it your best shot.
I guess it depends how you use this window. There’s a big potential downside to acting on the guess that you’re going to start being in contention in X years. Potential mistakes this could lead to include: signing long-term FA’s, choosing short-term low-ceiling help over long-term, higher ceiling talent, trading prospects for veterans to “go for it.”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless the team has the resources to consistently compete
Then attacking windows is the better strategy. You’re right that it can go badly, but unless you get massive doses of luck (Royals in 03, Pirates in 11), the other strategy doesn’t get you to the playoffs. I think the Brewers/Marlins strategy is the better course for the smallest market teams to follow. Avoiding mistakes is a virtue for the Yankees and Phillies, but smaller market teams have to take chances.
Then attacking windows is the better strategy. You’re right that it can go badly, but unless you get massive doses of luck (Royals in 03, Pirates in 11), the other strategy doesn’t get you to the playoffs.
I think the success of the Twins and Rays argues against this. I think guessing at windows or trying to force a window into being is difficult and usually doesn’t work. Now, if the owner wants to dump a ton of money into the team for a little while (like the Marlins), then sure that can work. But if you want to build a consistent winner, then you need to make smart, long-term moves and build from within as much as possible (again, see the Twins and Rays).
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
We'll need to see if the Rays can sustain their level of performance
I’m not convinced it’s going to work out that they can sustain a level of performance that gives them a chance of the playoffs every year (although obviously, their task is made immensely tougher by being in the AL East).
I went back to look at the Twins to see how they managed to sustain their level, and one thing I was struck by is how lucky they have been. They’ve outperformed their pythag record by 31 games since 2001, so maybe I’m underplaying the value of luck in putting teams in contention.
I need to think more about this. The theory seems solid but maybe there’s so much inherent volatility in records that you don’t gain much by putting it into practice
Is a +31 win on pythag over 10 years that big of a jump?
I guess they’d probably be expected to outperform a year and then underperform here and there to balance it out.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Right, you'd expect it to be pretty close to zero
They have several years where they’re 4/5/+8 and essentially no years where they’re substantially negative.
OMG yes
I’d much rather have a sandwich pick than Mazzaro/Marks. And even with his awful 2011 season, DDJ is still going to be a Type B. FWIW, currently Francoeur doesn’t make the cut.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we'd probably just have ended up with another year of DDJ
We only get the pick if he declines arbitration, and I have a hard time seeing that after this year
Then if he accepts aribtration, you can trade him for something very much like Mazzaro and Marks
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it has decreased his value
But getting 5th SP and a borderline prospect isn’t getting much at all. I think now he could get a 6th SP and a slightly worse borderline prospect if he were traded this offseason (in our hypothetical). And the difference in value between that haul and what the Royals ended up getting is minimal, for practical purposes.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Boy, I think an arbitration award would end up with DDJ having negative surplus value
I don’t know why anybody would trade us anything for him unless we picked up the salary.
Or keep him for one more year
Have an OF of Gordon/Cain/DJ and let him re-establish his value before trading him at the deadline or taking picks in 2013.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Another good option
Which is also preferrable to having Mazzaro and Marks.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If he bounces back, all is well
If he doesn’t, then we’ve thrown away a few million dollars and a chance for our young guys to show what they can do. I’m not sure that’s a winning prospect.
What young guys would DJ be blocking at that point?
David Lough?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yeah, DDJ would be taking no prospect's opportunity to prove himself
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He's had one bad half of a season and was hurty
He was pretty much this bad two years ago before going on a tear July/August/September…he might finish strong
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 27, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think "great job salvaging value" could possibly be true...
when you’re talking about Mazarro/Marks being that value.
But guys at the deadline are worth more!
Joke aside, DDJ brings up one concern about the value of offseason v. deadline trades is survivor bias. Does the analysis factor in players who had value in the offseason when they were healthy and their performance was static (since they were not playing) but then had no value at the trade deadline because they were hurt and/or sucking. For example, (in addition to DDJ), the O’s could have trade Luke Scott for a fair return during the offseason, but now he has no trade value.
Players at the deadline return more surplus value per production (WAR or whatever value of production) than players traded in the offseason. If you accept that MLB pays for production in a linear function (that is, a 1 WAR player is worth $5M and a 4 WAR is worth $20M), then the fact that the players traded at the deadline tend to be better players (not a lot of busted prospects moved at the deadline) shouldn’t affect it. Other than that, I’m not really sure how a survivorship bias would affect the results.
And yes, DDJ are good examples of how players’ expected production change as their results change, but I meant value/production increases at the trade deadline.
no, I think you just see more deals with those players...
whose value has increased since the offseason. Teams sell high on players that are overperforming, therefore receiving more at the deadline than they would in the offseason.
I doubt you could find an example of a team selling off a player who was horrible/injured throughout the first half of the season and a team selling low on them. probably couldn’t even find buyers.
As I explain below, that's not the method
Beltran is going to return $X of surplus value for the Y WAR he’s expected to produce over the remainder of the season. X/Y is much higher at the trade deadline than it is in the offseason. It doesn’t matter which players are being moved.
If all you are saying is that contenders are willing to spend more per marginal win
at the deadline than the offseason, sure, that should not surprise anyone. If you are saying that good Player X will bring back greater overall value at the deadline than during the offseason, that is something different and would need to account for the survivor bias.
by Gopherballs on Jul 27, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't understand what you mean by survivor bias
There are too few examples of players dealt at the trade deadline and then again in the offseason (or in the offseason and then again at the trade deadline) to get a statistically significant sample. I haven’t seen any studies looking only at that small pool of players. If that’s what you mean by survivor bias, then yes, that would be one of many problems in using that technique.
But survivor bias shouldn’t affect studies on value/production across all players traded, unless you think the value/production relationship is not linear. It doesn’t matter whether good players or bad ones are being traded if you’re looking at value/production.
And what I’m saying is that contenders are willing to spend so much more per marginal win at the trade deadline that you can get as much or more for a player at the trade deadline with only two months remaining and you could get for the full six months before the season started. I don’t think that’s obvious.
The Luke Scott example above
If you are going to argue that teams should hang onto players until the trade deadline instead of trading them in the prior offseason, you have to factor in the players that could have been traded in the offseason but due to injury or poor performance once the season began, they could not be traded at the deadline (or traded for much less). The O’s could have traded Luke Scott during the offseason for a nice return. Once the season started, Scott struggled and got hurt. He has no trade value now, so instead of getting a return worth $10-$12.5 million (minus salary) for a 2.0-2.5 WAR player last December, the O’s are getting a return of a big fat $0 in July (plus paying his salary).
I would like to see the data, but I am skeptical of teams always receiving less overall for a 3.0 WAR player before the season than the deadline when the acquiring team is only getting 1.0 WAR. Are contending teams really as a matter of course valuing that win at over $15 million?
We need to adjust our expectations for inseason trades upward and offseason downward
That’s all I’m really saying.
This analysis is not based on comparing individual players’ trade value in the offseason and regular season but rather looking at aggregate values/production measures, which should not be vulnerable to survivorship bias.
Obviously players can get hurt, and players can disappoint, and players can surge out of nowhere. Nobody can know the future, and I’m not suggesting that I’ve found some way to discover it.
The debate that set me off on this was a look at the past (whether DDJ should have been traded in 2008 instead of 2010), and in that case, you can look at how much value players have had at different points in time, but that doesn’t hold for judging going forward.
As I think more about it, there are a couple asymmetries between the offseason and in-season which are affecting the calculations — 1) teams in contention can base their projections on a few additional games (playoffs); and 2) at the trade deadline, the value of compensation picks is much more sure, and that increases that aspect of a player’s value. I need to try to think through these elements as I gather everything together for the post.
I don't think so...
do you think we could deal Mark/Mazzaro back to get DDJ now?
Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus seem like very similar acquisitions to me. Young, cost-controlled players with a history of good performance having a down (though not really that down) year and some sort of attitude/chemistry problem, amirite?
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions
Attitude problems are the new market inefficiency
Seriously great deals on both fronts. Wish we had a savvy GM like that.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And both “attitude problems” seem pretty overblown. One was a clash with TLR, and the other with Bobby Cox. It’s not like these guys were kicking puppies.
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Jayson Stark:
Astros turned down OF Jonathon Singleton, P Jarred Cosart and another pitching prospect for Pence.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110727/colorado-rockies-shopping-ace-ubaldojimenez
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Willingness to take on salary seems to be a huge point of leverage in these deals too.
Casey Blake netting carlos santana due to the Indians paying the salary
Better return for SEA in the cliff lee trade due to Ms paying salary
The Odalis Perez salary dump netting us a real prospect
The Red Sox getting Josh Beckett for taking on Mike Lowell’s salary
And then the blue jays essentially trading a reliever for an above average starter due to the willingness to eat teahen’s salary. (in the chi-sox portion of the three way deal)
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 4:27 PM EDT reply actions
with a payroll as pathetically low as ours, we should be making this kind of play. Like, we’ll trade you a nothing prospect for Wandy plus Carlos Lee and pay lee’s salary…
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure we can get Zambrano, Soriano, or Rios from the Chicago teams
But I guess you are not talking about THAT much salary. Those deals are whickedy whackedy.
Stuck following the Royals since 1976.
UM NO
The Red Sox got Beckett because they gave Hanley Ramirez…lets be serious
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 27, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, they gave up a real prospect…but didn’t have to give up as much as they otherwise would have since they picked up a huge salary.
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s both. The Dodgers wanted to upgrade their team but couldn’t add any payroll. If the Indians would not have been willing to pay the whole salary, they would not have gotten Carlos Santana.
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jul 27, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Rasmus
worth much this year? Looked at fangraphs and he kinda sucked, which may be why TLR was nudging him out the door. Looked like the Mets did good with dealing Beltran, give up a couple months and a pile of money for a prospect.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 27, 2011 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure if he kinda sucked.
His performance dropped off, and I don’t know what happened to his range over the past two seasons, but his bat is still average or so this season, which is plenty good enough to play CF, even if the defense really is a bit subpar.
If his “bad” season is average in CF, then that’s worth the risk.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 27, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Production
looks similar to Frenchy, but without the steals, and less than half of Melky. Arm -0.2, fld -9.6 this year after -6.7 in ‘10. He’s in the neighborhood, toward the bottom of the CF list, with Coco Crisp and BJ Upton. His AAA performance wasn’t as good as Lorenzo Cain is putting up now at Omaha.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jul 27, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
He should be playing right field
where he’d be at least an average player at his current performance.
Many scouts and prospect mavens still see the tools that could make him a superstar though
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
err...either corner spot not just right field
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
Cincinatti
I don’t know if Cincinatti has made the move yet but they have made it known that they made the trade to promote Yonder Alonso up to the big league team and play LF, which is a significant upgrade over Johnny Gomes. So they bought by selling
by Rudy Joseph Salazar on Jul 27, 2011 8:15 PM EDT reply actions
Indians acquire OF Kosuke Fukudome
Gave up a “high end prospect and a low end prospect” and the Cubs are picking up most of his salary. Should be finalized by this afternoon.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Turned out to be about the same return the Royals got on Betemit right?
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Royals Review
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
