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Chen, Getz Fail The Son of God, Hosmer Forgives Their Sins

Bruce Chen wondering if that smell is coming from his shoe

Bruce Chen, the Sino-Panamanian Loki, decided that he was going to choose the 27th of July to be the day that he would regress his season stats to the mean. Regression can be a cruel mistress, as Chen's ten earned runs in four innings of work would bear witness to. It is also cruel if you actually had to sit there and watch it happen in real-time.

Heading into the Boston Massacre v. 2.0, Chen's ERA was a sterling 3.30. Of course, his FIP, xFIP, tERA, and SIERA were 4.48, 4.47, 5.04, and 4.51, universally suggesting that his ERA was a mirage. It took a mere four innings to right that statistical wrong. His brand new ERA of 4.29 jives just a little bit better with those fielding-independent run averages. 

Detailing what actually happened in the first four innings is essentially pointless. If it is nearly August and the starting pitcher saw his ERA jump 0.99 points in less than a handful of innings, that should say plenty. 

The unfortunate thing is that Eric Hosmer hit a three-run moon shot in the top of the first, spotting Brucie Chen a three-run lead. After The Son of God homered, the Royals managed to get two more runners on before mistake-free Chris Getz stranded them. That lead was squandered by the end of the second inning, and the Red Sox had already seen 114 pitches by the end of the fourth. 

There was no looking back. 

Star-divide

The Royals had base-runners, stranding 12 in all with the indefatigable Getz being responsible for seven of those stranded runners. Solid nights for Hosmer (2 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI), Billy Butler (3 H, 1 monstrous HR), Alex Gordon (3 2B, 2 R, 2 OF assists), Jeff Francoeur (2 2B), Brayan Pena (2 H, 1 2B), and Moustakas (1 H, 2 BB) were overshadowed by Chen's horrible start and the bottom two-ninths of the line-up combining to go 0-for-8 before Getz crushed a single to shallow center field with two outs in the top of the ninth followed immediately by a weakly hit grounder from the bat of Mike Aviles that he beat out for an infield single. Of course, the seven-run deficit they were facing in the top of the ninth was insurmountable, so the late flash of production was too little, too late.   

Yes, clutch hitting is not quantifiable. Maybe it's even an imaginary skill that the stodgy traditionalist intelligentsia want to believe they can somehow measure by an eye-/gut-test. Regardless, the saintly Christopher Getz was so decidedly un-clutch on this horrific evening that Hosmer had to pull him aside as he was absolving Chen of his sins and tell him that all was forgiven as "A Quick One, While He's Away" played from an unidentifiable source in the visitors locker room at Fenway. Perhaps Getz's failings were evident enough to warrant a long-desired call-up of the un-slick-fielding Johnny Giavotella. Maybe the recent praise of Chris Getz was the equivalent of the dreaded 'vote of confidence' for the manager/head coach. 

Oh, who am I kidding? Getz will probably get to lead off tomorrow.

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Chen, I will eventually forgive

Getz? I’d turn cartwheels if they’d put him on the midnight train going an-eee-where.

by LaFLamme on Jul 27, 2011 10:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Georgia

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 28, 2011 5:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Getz OPS is 592, why is he on the roster?

On the bright side, Billy’s homer was a bomb and I scared my pit bull with my scream when Hosmer went yard

by BeauJackson on Jul 27, 2011 11:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm really starting to get excited about Hosmer

.322/.378/.544 in July and whatever was plaguing him in June appears to be gone.

Here’s what I’m worried about. While he has a near .900 OPS against righties for the season, he’s basically Getz against lefties. He’s either weakly popping up or softly grounding out, which is troubling.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Jul 27, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

A Bag Of

Lightly salted rat dicks.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

No worries here.

Having a great series against LHP right now, and one of those was one of the best in MLB. As BeauJackson said, he’s a rookie and performing very well. At this pace, he’s ROY without a doubt.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 27, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would give anything to have Gia playing 2B over Getz.

I’d have rather had Aviles in that spot for the last couple of months to see if he could rebound, but much like with Kila, I feel like this team has just let more talent sail away.

In any case it doesn’t matter, I’m so damn sick of Getz’s .588 OPS that I would sooner us put the decaying corpse of Mark Grudzielanek out there right now than him.

I mean the really frustrating thing is that Getz is who we knew he was. I mean look at his splits
Career: .252/.313/.307
YTD: .250/.308/.280
Go back to his last year in the minors where he didn’t have an inflated BABIP and look at those numbers
2006: .256/.326/.321

Theres no promise here. No outstanding features. Nothing to suggest that Getz could even get a job with any other team. Yet we cling to him…why?

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Jul 27, 2011 11:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Was it? I can't find data on him before that...

But his 2006 BABIP is identical to his BABIP at the major league level. In addition the majority of players have their BABIP’s fall once they get to the majors.
Point being that even in those years where his BABIP was “normal” his ISO was pathetic and he barely managed to be average.
Guys who are average in AA aren’t going to be good at the major league level.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Jul 27, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, his BABIP is not an anomaly.

He has great contact numbers. It just so happens half of his contact is a grounder back to the pitcher.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 27, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

This team has an unnatural fascination with infielders that can't hit

Ross Gload, Tony Pena Jr. Yuniesky Betancourt, all complete bums with no potential who were given chance after chance after chance to stick way way past the time it was clear that they could not play. Getz is next in this great tradition.

by Olentangy on Jul 27, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Add the Spork to this list

How could I have forgotten St.Willie?

by Olentangy on Jul 27, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Follow raford3 on Twitter

That’s Robert Ford, your postgame radio host. He’s been defending Getz all night. Anybody who wants to tell him Aviles is better and should be starting is rendered an idiot by his replies. He was talking about how there are others on this team who would not have a job on another MLB team. Bullshit. Aside from 2B, we don’t have the worst player at any position in the AL. Oh, and he compared Getz and Aviles’ batting averages. Ha!

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 27, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Precisely why I removed him....

….from my Royals list on Twitter.

Hard to take total Getz-defenders seriously…..

/tweeting.... @displacedsptsfn

by okstarsfan on Jul 28, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hos forgives thier sins ...

That’s a stretch

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Jul 27, 2011 11:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Can you prove that he isn't the Son of God?

Think about that one for a minute.

I just blew your mind.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yes.

Jews haven’t lost their minds yet.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 27, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not being sarcastic at all.

There’s nothing sarcastic about it. Is he Baseball Jesus? Can he work miracles? Will he save the Royals? This is not sarcasm, friend.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 27, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

OMD

You went way over thier heads.. you cannot pull a Professor Indiana Jones on them. its waay to soon

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Jul 28, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I am

I find it offensive.

That information is somewhat classified.

by Karte on Jul 28, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Now if you want to find it offensive because of your personal religious beliefs,

that is at least justifiable. Over-sensitive? Perhaps. Limiting the possibilities of what Eric Hosmer truly might be? Absolutely.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why is it that some Royals fans think Bruce Chen is a pretty good pitcher?

Is there anything more to it than his ERA over 35 starts with the Royals?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 11:43 PM EDT reply actions  

If the Royals signed Hideki Irabu tomorrow and he made 10 good starts for the Royals with a low ERA but poor FIP, xFIP, SIERA and tERA, there would be a ton of fans arguing that he’d finally “figured it out” and that he’s a "crafty veteran who knows how to limit runs even when he doesn’t have great peripherals.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 27, 2011 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Only Paulino actually has the stuff to maybe indicate that he could continue to produce.

His peripherals have pointed toward him being a better pitcher than his ERA would have indicated.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 27, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, ace peripherals this year…with the Royals. Over his short career, the peripherals have been above average (FIP and xFIP both around 4).

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Prepare to keep waiting.

Or look at his numbers and get on the same page.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

His career FIP/xFIP are 4.22/3.99

This is useful.

Moreover 8.25 K/9 with a live fastball is certainly palatable, even with a 3.55 career BB/9.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Are you a former pitcher at a high level or a pitching coach?

If not, then I don’t see your point. I see the numbers. There are some bad outings. But I do know that Paulino strikesout many and a lot of ground balls get through the infield. His BABIP still hasn’t normalized.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

His SIERA was top 10 in all the bigs last time I checked.

His xFIP was at 12. And that included his time with Colorado getting whooped.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

That didn't count. It was the ump's fault.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

and struck out six

for a 3:1 ratio, if he keeps that up, that is an ace.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not exactly.

Hit batters are bad, but it only takes 1 pitch to do that. His ball/strike ratio was probably still okay.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm assuming his ball/strike ratio was okay.

You’re assuming, based on nothing to the contrary that Paulino isn’t any good. So, I challenge you instead, to look it up.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

He is a possible top of the rotation

pitcher that we got for free. If DM pulls that off a couple more times we are contenders, what is not to like?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

You predicted a meltdown.

I’m predicting the opposite. I would never predict someone to become an ace. That would be ridiculous for pretty much anybody. I would predict that he would become a solid 3.2-3.5 ERA pitcher. Of course, ERA fluctuates a lot because of BABIP, but his strikeout rates might provide a little more consistency. Hence, his consistently good DIPS numbers.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

the meltdown has begun

He’s allowed 23 ER’s in his last 39 IP’s. Ignore it all you want, but Paulino hasn’t been good for awhile.

by BeauJackson on Jul 28, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Earned runs are mostly due to luck

outside the pitchers control and have been proven mathematically to be inferior to predictive stats like xFIP. His ERA is not a good measure of what he will do going forward.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

so you want to absolve him of any hits he gives up?

 just mentioned that paulino gets hit hard when he gets hit.

by BeauJackson on Jul 28, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hits have been proven to be

luck other then homeruns to some degree. Strikeouts and walks are the only thing that is significant other then groundball rate. Oh and his groundball rate is above average as well.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

really? i'd love to see the study that scientifically states that as theory

it’s still just a philosphy not fact. i’m not against the idea, but it isn’t fact yet, unless i’m way off base here.

by BeauJackson on Jul 28, 2011 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, you are way off base.

Voros McCracken proved, at the least, that pitchers have control over HR, BB, and K. Pitchers have much less control over balls in play. Defense and luck play much more of a role in that department. Still, we do know some things about balls in play. For example, high strikeout pitchers allow fewer HR, and generally, weaker contact. In Paulino’s case, the ERA estimators that are based on these notions (which have been tested and proven) show that Paulino has suffered from very back luck, and probably some bad defense along the way as well. This is why Paulino’s FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are important. He’s a strikeout pitcher with a better-than-average groundball rate. FIP normalizes to league average BABIP. xFIP normalizes to league average HR/FB. And in my opinion, the best is SIERA, because it takes his K rate, his GB rate, and it gives him extra credit for those things.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Again,

you can take a gander at his career FIP and xFIP figures. It’s not like they’re gospel, but I certainly do not have an issue taking a flier on a guy with his peripherals. Much smarter people than myself (Joe Sheehan, for starters) have been singing his praises for a while now. I don’t think anyone here is insisting he’s a 1. A legit 3, though? For next to nothing?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

On this team,

not a real 1, right?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

A real number one.

He is 10th in the projection systems, the top 30 are number ones.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

10th in what, and which projection systems are you talking about?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

He said projected

…as in, not just how he’s done so far this season with the Royals, but how good he’s projected to do based on his recent seasons of MLB data.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Where did you find his projected SIERA and xFIP? And which projection systems are you talking about?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ah, so you're not going by projections at all

You’re making a couple big mistakes:

1. Pretending that SIERA and xFIP are projections, and actually calling them “projection systems” when they are nothing of the kind.

2. Using only his 2011 stats as the “predictor”. Paulino has had only 9 starts this year. Do you think a sound prediction of future ERA comes from looking at xFIP or SIERA over 9 starts?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

He is flashing number one stuff

over 9 starts. Yeah, it is a smallish sample size, but it is promising.
Also, having an xFIP over his career is almost ace level as well. The average xFIP for last year was 4.3 so his xFIP was well above average the rest of his career. We don’t have anything else to go by. He throws 95, and has good stuff and seems to have better control now, and looks like a top of the rotation pitcher. Maybe he will get worse, but like I said to just get to Hochevar’s level he would have to regress to a 1.5kK/BB for the rest of this season and next season. I don’t see any reason to say he is not an above average pitcher that right now and that he has number one numbers thsi year, because he does.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

over 9 starts. Yeah, it is a smallish sample size, but it is promising.

Smallish? It’s tiny. Promising, yes. But it should be given its proper weight.

Also, having an xFIP over his career is almost ace level as well.

In the current run environment, that is merely better than average.
We don’t have anything else to go by

Wrong. We also know that he’s a two-pitch pitcher (he throws the curve and change very infrequently). And that he’s had poor control over his career. We also know that he was never seen by talent evaluators to be a very talented pitcher. (He never made any top 100 prospect lists). And the Astros didn’t have much confidence in him, never leaving him in the major league rotation for a full season.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Astro's were stupid.

He was a starting pitcher with above average periphreals, and they treated him like that. What did he do, kill someone?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Couple things...

His walk rate has sucked over his career but he’s showing a possibility of correcting that. His strikeouts are remaining the same. That equals promise for me.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

He hit two batters.

Also HPB are not the same as walks statistically. HPB really does not affect future performance like walks do.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

He is a pretty good pitcher at ballparks that supress homeruns a lot.

Flyballs have a lower BABIP so flyball pitchers are helped a lot in big stadiums. In small stadiums, he gives up homeruns and looks terrible.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 27, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pitches a lot a games at the K, Target Field, Detroit...

He is just in the right enviroment to be meh, and when you are up against Davies and SOS it is not like the competetion is that fierce.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 27, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

This is true.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 28, 2011 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

I said that when he was picked up--

Just getting away from Coors and the Juicebox for half his games would improve his stats.

by OnixConcepcion on Jul 28, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes,

I still don’t think the signing of Chen in the offseason was in and of itself a bad thing. Clearly the rotation was in no shape to head into a season of baseball. With the season being lost before it started, someone needed to pitch. It could be much worse.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

someone needed to pitch

There was and is no shortage of warm bodies in this organization.

. It could be much worse

You mean in a rebuilding year, the Royals could have saved some money on the MLB payroll, spent it on the draft and even more L.A. FA’s and had a better chance at getting the #1 pick in the draft? I’d take that kind of “worse”.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just don't think $2MM is enough to get upset/worried about.

Moore’s made A TON of shitty moves. This was one that I haven’t been able to muster any energy to get too angry about.

Again, just qualifying it as ‘not bad,’ not lauding it.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say it was good

I’d much rather watch a Chen start over an O’Sullivan or Suppan start.

by kcdc1 on Jul 28, 2011 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yah, the whole staff makes less then we got when Meche

walked away from the 12 millon, so it is not like the Royals don’t have a ton of cash to spend.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

If this were not part of a pattern of Moore being a poor evaluator of major league talent, then I wouldn’t have minded much. But there have been many such moves, and this really did look like another HoRam where the player is pulled of the scrap heap, performs fairly well, but shouldn’t be expected to repeat said performance, and then Moore gives the player a guaranteed MLB contract for the next season.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

But that was not really the case here.

Moore told him to walk when he said he wanted a multi-year deal and waited for him to come back to the price range he was willing to pay for a player that was popular. DM just figured if he sucked, he could be cut lose, where was the harm?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Let's be fair here,

this is not HoRam territory.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Same principles, different magnitude.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, because DM went out and courted HoRam.

He let the market play out with Chen, then signed him because he came back to to Royals to cut a deal to have an attempt at a starting job. That is two very different senarios.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, with Chen he waited several months before giving him a contract he shouldn’t have. Kudos, Dayton!

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why is that a contract he shouldnt have given?

Chen has performed pretty well for a very reasonable cost. This is really forcing it, trying to make his signing look like a bad move.

by LimaTime10 on Jul 28, 2011 12:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

It was a good PR move and a most a 2 million dollar

mistake for a starting pitcher. I think he pitches alright for what he is. He takes advantage of pitching in big stadiums. His career numbers are really hurt by the years he pitched in Camden Yards. He is just not going to be sucessful in that situation, but with the Royals the guy can keep us in games.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

he did well outside of 12 starts, all of which weren't in camden

He’s hurt by the fact that he was a crap pitcher everywhere he went

by BeauJackson on Jul 28, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yah, he is not a good talent.

He is ok if you happen to be in a home stadium and division with big ballyards so his pitches don’t disappear over the fence every outing.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

The signing was absolutely a good PR move,

like it or not, Chen is a ‘fan favorite’. You can spend the $2 million and get some goodwill from sending Chen out there, or push the payroll even lower, pissing off fans and let Suppon/ other AAA 32 pitch.

by MacGy on Jul 28, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bruce Chen is selling tickets?

I don’t buy it.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why not?

They considered making one of the Tuesday t-shirts with his name on it (not sure if that actually won.) Add that to his ‘hilariousness’ and I can easily see family’s going to the park to see Chen.

by MacGy on Jul 28, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

How familiar are casual fans (and the vast majority of fans are casual fans) with Chen and his ‘hilariousness’? He’s not a great player. He hasn’t been here long. I doubt many fans are buying tickets because they are excited by Bruce Chen’s presence on the roster.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree that most of the casual fans might not be

familiar with Chen’s perceived funny bone. However, he did have the most wins of any pitcher last year, and we know they’re looking at that.

by MacGy on Jul 28, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just don’t think that the mere fact that he won 12 games means the Royals get meaningfully good PR from re-signing the guy.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

They show Chen's "Joke of the Day" on the Crownvision board

so fans know he is funny. I have season tickets, so I don’t buy them just to see Bruce, but I am more likely to go on a day when he pitches than I am Davies or Hochevar.

You have to have reasons to go to the ballpark, because the won-lost record doesn’t do it. Bruce and T-shirt Tuesdays are reasons for me to go.

That information is somewhat classified.

by Karte on Jul 28, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the reason the vast majority of fans go to the ballpark is to see a MLB baseball game and to see their favorite team. While there are some real fan favorites (Gordon, Butler, Soria), I really don’t think that guys like Bruce Chen get on the radar of the vast majority of fans).

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

OK,

just making sure. Chen did give the Royals 140.1 IP last year to HoRam’s 24.1 IP in ‘08. Neither did anything to suggest their performance wasn’t at least partially fluky, but Chen at least proved marginal worth in a much larger span of time.

Again, don’t misconstrue this as lauding the signing. I’m just not getting bent out of shape over it.

And he’s hilarious apparently.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Do ya think

Criticizing Dayton for spending 2 million on a guy who is pitching decent bc that money could be spent elsewhere might be a little over the top? Francis isn’t here for the long haul.. that money could’ve been spent elsewhere too. Hell we could’ve just stayed away from free agency completely and spent all that money elsewhere. Sure, in a perfect world that would probably be the right thing to do. But I don’t think any gm who wants to keep his job is going to run out a ton of crappy minor leaguers or force prospects onto the roster and totally ignore free agency. That’s just not how it works, so criticizing DM for a trivial move like this is too much, especially when it has worked out just fine. He has to put together a major league team…… With no better options, I’m not about to fault him for signing a guy like Bruce to such a cheap deal.
And who is to say that we didn’t just go out and spend two million more in the draft or Latin America? None of us know. I highly doubt that if they found a guy they truly wanted, they would pass because they already gave that two million to Bruce chen. To assume that Bruce chens signing is restricting us in Latin America or the draft is a questionable claim.

by LimaTime10 on Jul 28, 2011 1:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Scott just doesn't want us to spend more the minimum for a player

who we do not control for several years because we are not in contention. I understand that, but we already have the lowest payroll and these guys were on low risk one year deals. They ended up being worth it, but he would not be happy unless we drafted an army out of LA.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Scott just doesn’t want us to spend more the minimum for a player who we do not control for several years because we are not in contention.

Especially if he’s not pretty good. And I didn’t think Chen is pretty good. Still don’t.

They ended up being worth it, but he would not be happy unless we drafted an army out of LA.

Spending the money on Chen is good for helping the Royals win 1 or 2 more games in 2011 (up to perhaps 70 wins). Spending it on “an army out of L.A.” can help the Royals in a possibly contending future. Which do you think is more important?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

I understand the principle

but this is a poor argument in my mind for a couple of reasons:

1) There has been no direct correlation established between payroll and Draft/Latin signings except when a payroll is stretched at the high end. We are saving roughly 35 million on last year’s payroll. I don’t think even the Jays are putting that kind of difference into their amateur talent budget. It would be hard to inject that much talent into the system and have it all fit/be properly coached, if you could even find enough worth buying on the market. Plus, the process of outbidding everyone else on Latin lottery tickets night be fruitless and totally fuck up the market for years to come. Spend only on what you think is valuable, and only fund what seems like good investments. I have not seen much in the way of reports of the Royals losing out on players they really wanted, and they already have acquired some nice talent now.

2) It works on the assumption that any money spent on mediocre veteran players, over the league minimum, is lost money. Besides just the need to — if only for the politics of MLB’s collective bargaining arrangements and shut the large market owners up about teams pocketing revenue sharing dollars — keep the payroll above the minimum, there is some value in not being the Astros every year. As this site can attest, it fucking drains your fan base. Bruce Chen is costing the team 1.5 million over the league minimum to give the team a shot to win every fifth day. If he was blocking a guy ready to be in the major leagues that had a real chance to be better than him, then it would be a mistake (like playing Kyle fucking Davies as the sixth starter for more money). But who pitches that is both ready and has a real chance not just to be another Bruce Chen (i.e. Mazzaro, Suppan, SOS)? The Rays would be fucking stupid to make Bruce Chen pay them for a starting pitching spot. The Royals are not in that position.

Bottom line: Bruce Chen has performed up to his contract this year in terms of value. We have no future commitments to him (which would indeed be bad). he might even buy some time for other prospects not to be rushed (Monty). He is not causing a budget problem. They did not pay a lot for him at all.

I don’t think you can call the move bad because it seems similar to another move several years ago that was bad.

by bas on Jul 28, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

So you don't think he leads the charge through the playoffs?

I guess that will be a problem when we win 50 out of our last 60 or so games.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm more worried that Moore signs him to a 2/8 extension

(plus bonuses for games started, plus a mutual option)

If that happens, I predict the fourth comment in the thread announcing the signing will contain the line “somebody has to pitch”. That very faint praise was all over the Chen re-signing thread this winter.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess I haven't noticed the large praise.

I don’t find Bruce Chen interesting, so I usually don’t waste time on threads about him. Perhaps it will become clear to Moore over the rest of this season that Chen has no utility except to fill a spot.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

There have been more than a few people who have penciled him in for next year's rotation

as a #2/#3 because he is Master Chen. Then again, maybe he is not trending as well right now.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 28, 2011 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

No chance

Nobody in baseball—not scouts, not statisticians, not old-school GMs, not new-school GMs, and especially not Ozzie Guillen—thinks Chen is good. He had something of a ‘breakout’ year in 2010, and still nobody offered him a real contract. The Royals handed him a cheap one year deal to see if he could scrape through another year on smoke and mirrors, and because no one else was interested, Chen took it. And he hasn’t been bad. But there’s no chance that baseball suddenly goes crazy and starts throwing big money his way. I’ll bet that Davies will sign for more than Chen this offseason.

by kcdc1 on Jul 28, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Chen will be type B and he wants a multiyear contract.

We will offer arbitration, he will decline because his periprials suck and so he won’t get much of a raise. We will not sign him because we will take the draft pick.
So unless we trade him I don’t see much possibility of a mulit-year deal with Chen. Either it will be a arbitration deal or he will be hitting the road.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not trying to argue at all,

I’m really not sure, is he projected to be a Type B?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah,

cool. Hopefully he doesn’t blow it. Love to get that compensatory pick…

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Will he turn down arb?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 28, 2011 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

2/8 hasn't been big money in MLB for a long time

Middle relievers routinely get that. And it’s not like this would be a deal outside of Moore’s common practice.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see it happening with Chen

Baseball as a whole doesn’t think he’s good, and Moore in particular likes tools and stuff. I’d be shocked if Chen gets a 2 year deal with the Royals. We’ll see tho.

by kcdc1 on Jul 28, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would too, I don't belive DM will give him a two year deal.

He understands he doesn’t need to because no one else will give Chen a two year deal.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think any of us know how baseball feels about Chen or what they'd be willing to throw at him to be their #5 SP

I’m not predicting Moore re-signs Chen to a multi-year deal. But I think it is a risk, just as I thought there was a risk that Moore would fail to trade Melky and Francoeur if they had decent first halves. I was told there was no chance of that in the offseason. We’ll see.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, we didn't predict Melky and Frenchy to have that

great of seasons, or for Frenchy to be that gung-ho about staying here. No one expected Melky to be an a 5 fWAR pace and actually be our best option for next year.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

and actually be our best option for next year

Sigh. I guess his 2011 performance (over 2/3 of a season) tells us all we need to know about how good Melky is. Yes?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good numbers are good numbers.

What do we lose by bringing Melky back if he continues to put up good numbers this year? He will not break the bank, he can cast aside if he is terrible, and if he performs well could bring us pack picks if the free agent thing is still in the new CBA.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jul 28, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

2/3 of a season is 2/3 of a season

Yes good numbers are good numbers. But stats for one season (and a partial season at that) don’t erase the rest of a player’s career. What a player is doing right now does not set his true talent level. You have to look at more data than that.

What do we lose by bringing Melky back if he continues to put up good numbers this year?

$5 million.
and if he performs well could bring us pack picks if the free agent thing is still in the new CBA.

Only if he declines arbitration. He could easily accept and then the Royals would have him around for 2013 as well. Great.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the other hand, you're acting like 2/3 a season of good numbers mean nothing at all

Melky projects for next year as a slightly above league average hitter that can play a passable center field or a likely above average right field. With good baserunning, that’s a 3 WAR player.

by kcdc1 on Jul 28, 2011 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

My dream.

Denny Matthews voice: Francoeur….Gone!

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

OK

you should be angry with that move, if it happens.

by bas on Jul 28, 2011 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I predict the first comment to be

C'mon Chen!

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 28, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

1/$2 million is far different than 2/8

especially when you can fill up a legitimate rotation without him

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 28, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dump Getz

obviously the trade of Teahen today showed the Royals that both Fields and Getz are garbage and show be put down the appropriate recycling shoot as soon as possible.
Call up Gio, give him a shot.

by jrcnc on Jul 27, 2011 11:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Rookie quota exceeded.

They wouldn’t know what to do if another rookie came up.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously I am going to be scared to death

If in 2015 or whatever and the Royals are still tanking, and Hosmer is due up for free agency.

As much as I am sure he is a team player, there is no way he stays if some one else comes calling and it is between us and the Yankees plus $50 extra million

by KCTiger on Jul 28, 2011 12:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

My advice.

Don’t think about that.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rickie Weeks on the DL.

Now would be a good time to call Gia up GMDM. At least before lock time Monday please…

by KCTiger on Jul 28, 2011 12:21 AM EDT reply actions  

I like Paulino and am somewhat optimistic on him...

…but damn calling him an ace or ace in the making is getting JUUUUSTTT a bit ahead of ourselves…right??

Same thing with the “MELTDOWN IS IMMINENT” guy. No way. His stuff is too good for that.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 28, 2011 12:43 AM EDT reply actions  

I like his stuff (well, at least two pitches of his stuff)

And we’ll see how far his two pitches will carry him. I’m not predicting failure. But I’m not exactly predicting success either.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 28, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ditto.

There’s much more cause for hope with Paulino than with any of the other dregs we’ve been bandying about here tonight.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I mean I guess it's not out of the realm of possibility that Melky doesn't suck like I keep waiting for him to do.

I’m not holding out hope for that, and Melky and Frenchy need to be dealt post-haste.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 28, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Paulino's good for

a guy who seems to have some real problems pitching from the stretch

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jul 28, 2011 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was hanging out with an old friend tonight

I see the important people did important things and Getz was Getzing worse than normal

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM

by Lum on Jul 28, 2011 1:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Great offensive night

Except for those players who didn’t do anything, who completely shut it down. Sure would be nice to get rid of that hole in the lineup.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 28, 2011 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

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