Paulino might be able to keep this up

Interesting read on improved pitch selection and platoon splits since we have picked him up.

On a day after that garbage yesterday, any (good) reason for optimism is welcome

11 months ago bas 33 comments 0 recs |

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If Paulino can turn it around

SO CAN DAVIES! Sign him to an extension now!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 5, 2011 3:39 PM EDT reply actions

Err...

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

As soon as Paulino’s ERA increases, the Royals fans that now love him will instantly abandon him. They don’t care about FIP, xFIP, tERA or any fielding independent stats. It’s all about runs, and more specifically ERA.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 5, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

the guy has a 4.06 career xFIP...

i dont think anyone really believes or even hopes that he’s a great pitcher going ahead…but a 3-4 starter?…acquired for free? I guess I can only speak for myself when i say that i’d be ecstatic with that

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'd be ecstatic if he could keep that up too.

Do you think he will? Do you think 40 MLB starts reliably sets his true talent level? But my point is that his ERA is very likely going to go up from where it is now. And if it goes up to something like 4.75, most fans who have jumped on his bandwagon are going to jump off, because most fans rely on ERA, or W/L record.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 5, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Speaking of W/L record...

Do you ever watch MLB Network? Greg Amsinger was talking about pitchers possibly going to the All-Star Game a week or so ago and he thought a particular pitcher should go because he has more wins. I threw a tantrum.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm guessing CC Sabathia

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 5, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

That sounds right.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

i dunno if anyone can really hazard an educated guess....

but his walk numbers are way down and his groundball rate is way up…those both bode well for the future, although, im not sure how quickly those numbers are supposed to stabiliize. what is apparent to me when looking at his numbers from this year though, is that he hasnt been lucky with regards to BABIP or strand rate which is a good sign

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Indeed

I also wonder what an average HR/FB rate is. He’s all over the place over his career, and at 9.6% this year. That seems a tad high.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

i thought it was 10 or so but im not sure

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I seem to remember that average is about 11%

Of course what should be expected from a given pitcher depends a lot on his home park.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 5, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

And Kauffman

although, not a pitcher’s park really, is tougher to hit a home run than most parks.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, who knows what his real HR/FB rate is.

It shows no signs of stabilizing.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

If he keeps his walks down and GB's up, then I'd be very optimistic

I don’t know that we should expect it to continue though.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 5, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I do think that if the scouts have always loved his stuff,

and the peripherals have always pointed to a better pitcher, then reason for hope isn’t foolish.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 5, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Scott's point is that, WE all would be ecstatic.

At least most of us, but if you did a survey of all Royals fans, there would be many that would abandon him. Some might ask what his ERA is, and then abandon him. Eleven or twelve might ask about FIP.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

If that's the point, then yes, I concur.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jul 5, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

There's actually some reason to believe that Kyle Davies has been really unlucky this year.

ERA: 7.77
xFIP: 4.80
LOB%: 57.8% — past few seasons been 66% and 69%
GB: 36.7% — past few seasons been 40.8% and 42.4%
BABIP is a lot higher than usual.

Still, let’s not give him the benefit of the doubt.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Most fans simply won't evaluate a pitcher based on peripherals or pitching independent stats

If a pitcher has a bad ERA, then he sucks. That’s as deeply as they get into it. Show them his FIP, xFIP, etc. and even if they understand those stats, they don’t care. “Well, he just sucks. Look at his ERA!”

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 5, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, in Kyle Davies' case, ERA may be the most accurate indicator

Not really the most accurate, but he’s had a lot of seasons where his FIP or xFIP were lower than his ERA. Over this period of time, I think it’s accurate to say that FIP is not a good measure for him. Whatever it is, he’s just not a good pitcher despite good stuff.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

worst starter ever

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

What is his walk rate?

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 5, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

3.89

Same old Davies.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

If Davies were an Astro

I might be on board to trade for him on the off chance he could become something more (if he had service time).

Here is the real issue with Davies: he is a FA at the end of the year. You can no longer hold out hope that he will be something good. He might be, but not for the Royals. So, as a royals fan, why put up with bad pitching when there is no hope of that guy ever making the team better.

by bas on Jul 5, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

sos/vin mazzaro is why

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, right now there's no reason for him.

But I take your point to be that if Francis or Chen get traded, you’re back to 5 and SOS, Mazzaro, or Davies has to pitch.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

i think 6 starters is a smart idea if they're intent on keeping duffy at the mlb level...

they’re gonna have to limit his innings

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

If you focus on him, it's a good thing.

He gets to keep pitching until the end of the year, maybe, and without increasing his innings too much. But for the fans, it’s keeping guys like Kyle Davies in the rotation that sucks. Now we don’t see Paulino and Duffy pitch as much, and even Hochevar (despite how frustrating he is, he avoids getting down early).

I think it’s also getting to the point where Duffy is very unlikely to go back down to AAA. He’s still having issues, but he’s showing progress. That to me, means that he doesn’t need a demotion to get things together.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah...i just dont care at all...

whether we see davies, sos or whoever…its meaningless to the future which is what matters to me

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by billybeingbilly on Jul 5, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'd rather

get the Omaha feed when Montgomery is pitching.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 5, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Color me crazy..

but I wouldn’t be utterly shocked if we saw Luke working out of the pen at some point this year.

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!

by KeepItCopacetic on Jul 5, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The reason that would really surprise me is that in the short-term the Royals are pretty thin at starting pitcher. Unless the Royals trade for and/or sign multiple SP’s, they are going to need all of the decent SP’s they have.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 5, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions