Yost: "Crow will probably be a starter next Spring"
I just noticed this story buried halfway down the page on royals.com. This ought to put to bed all the worry that we're going to waste his potential by leaving him in the bullpen. I'm not sure why we're waiting to try the change until next season... if the plan is Crow-as-starter next year, why not get a few starts under his belt this year when we know for sure there's no chance of contention?
I'm not complaining too much, though. I'm not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Now let's just hope he retains his effectiveness when stretched out to 6+ innings. It would be huge for us if he could fill one of the holes in the rotation next year and beyond.
11 months ago
Soria's Unibrow
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Boy then this proves the Royals did the right thing by moving him to the bullpen!
This ought to put to bed all the worry that we’re going to waste his potential by leaving him in the bullpen
IF they actually convert him back into a starter (and that’s still just a big IF at this point), then I think the 2011 season will prove to have been a setback in his development as a starter. While it may have built up the all-important intangible of his confidence, his third and fourth pitches have laid dormant when he could have been working on them (and hopefully improving them) by throwing them in actual games.
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I don't disagree with you
I’m just glad that he’s supposedly going to end up in the rotation at all, and that the organization is willing to make a change like this. And yes, I still think Soria should start.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 7, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, he is working On the curve
Throwing around 7% curves last I checked.
by Prime2U on Jul 7, 2011 11:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, that's not the kind of work he needs to do
A small percentage of a small number of innings, instead of a larger percentage in a larger number of innings.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Crow has thrown 38 curveballs (give or take 1 or 2)
Fangraphs BIS data has him at 5.9% curves with 635 total pitches thrown this year, which amounts to 38 curve balls overall (or less than 3 per week).
Yes, he hasn't thrown them in games a lot
But he HAS thrown them, against ML batters, and not gotten shelled. Which means he has to be working on it outside of games, and it’s improving.
I think I’d rather have seen him stay in the minors and work stuff out, but I will also admit that this approach has two important benefits.
1. He has gained a lot of confidence by pitching so well against ML hitters.
2. The FO, scouts, and all of us serious fans know for sure that he is a good pitcher now. So if he goes back to the minors and really works on his secondary pitches, and absolutely sucks for a while while he’s trying to work them out, he isn’t likely to get demoted, and the FO and is won’t write him off and give up on developing him into a key piece of the rotation.
by Prime2U on Jul 8, 2011 10:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Crow's minor league experience is brief and undistinguished to be it politely
But he HAS thrown them, against ML batters, and not gotten shelled.
Crow was abused pretty bad by the Texas League in 22 starts last year.
Nor is this a situation where Crow has spend multiple years in the minors. Some seem to forget that Crow skipped a year holding out after his junior year. He pitched three years in college before that, but with the shorter college season, he pitched about 1/3 less innings that his peers in the minor leagues.
Which means he has to be working on it outside of games, and it’s improving.
Not necessarily. Because relievers need to be ready to pitch almost everyday, relievers are not throwing much on the side.
Eh I was talking major league not Minor
But what you’re saying is kind of my point. His curve got hit pretty well in AA, but he’s thrown 38 of them in the majors that aren’t getting hammered. Leads me to think he’s found time to improve it along the line somewhere.
That doesn’t mean it doesn’t still need more work. More importantly, he needs to put a lot of work in on his changeup. The minors is definitely the best place for that, but I’m not going to say this stint in the BP was a big set-back for him.
by Prime2U on Jul 8, 2011 3:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
38 pitches is a ridicuously small sample size
And right now, it is not just that his change up needs work — he has no change up right now.
The change up is the key. The change up is the most effective pitch to throw to opposite handed hitters. That is why all but a handful of MLB starters throw a change up (even if it is not their primary secondary pitch). Of the ones without a change up, they are either knuckleballers or guys who throw a relatively high number of splitters, with one exception. The only one who relies exclusively on a curve (in addition the fastball/slider combo) is the underwhelming Aaron Cook. There are a few starters like Chris Carpenter and Chad Billingsley who rely predominantly on a curve as a secondary offering and only mix in change ups, but those guys throw legitimately plus curveballs.
Yeah, that's definitely true
They need to have him working on a change through this whole offseason, and if it’s still a poor offering in spring training, maybe that will be the answer to of he should start or not.
by Prime2U on Jul 8, 2011 3:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, he hasn't thrown them in games a lot
But he HAS thrown them, against ML batters, and not gotten shelled. Which means he has to be working on it outside of games, and it’s improving.
I think I’d rather have seen him stay in the minors and work stuff out, but I will also admit that this approach has two important benefits.
1. He has gained a lot of confidence by pitching so well against ML hitters.
2. The FO, scouts, and all of us serious fans know for sure that he is a good pitcher now. So if he goes back to the minors and really works on his secondary pitches, and absolutely sucks for a while while he’s trying to work them out, he isn’t likely to get demoted, and the FO and we won’t write him off and give up on developing him into a key piece of the rotation.
by Prime2U on Jul 8, 2011 10:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I do disagree
My opinion is that throwing his fastball against ML hitters is more valuable than throwing changeups against guys in AA. I think if Crow can develop his fastball into a real plus ML pitch (I’m not convinced yet), I think that will be more important for his development as a starter than his changeup or curveball.
by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 8, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He already had a very good fastball
And everybody knew he had a good fastball. That really isn’t in question. By all accounts, his problems as a starter in the minors were mostly about his third and fourth pitches (to a lesser extent, he had a problem with control). So how is it that what he really needed to become a starter was improving one of his two good pitches, while not doing serious work to improve his third and fourth pitches? Do you really think it’s common for MLB pitchers to only have two good pitches and for the other two to genuinely stink?
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
The control problem was the curve and change
They exist, he just has a harder time throwing them for strikes.
by WURoyal on Jul 8, 2011 12:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Per Fangraphs PItch Values
His fastball is very slightly below average. As a reliever. It’s a small sample size, but I think he’s better off with a plus fastball and a crappy changeup, then an minus fastball and an average change.
by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 8, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Pineda and Ogando
I didn’t even have to get off the first page at Fangraphs before i found two successful starters who throw their 3rd pitch less as a starter than Crow throws his as a reliever.
Two pitch starters — the new market inefficiency!
by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 8, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Finding exceptional cases proves…what? That it’s possible? Sure, it’s possible. Of course given the rarity of this kind of pitcher succeeding as a SP means it is very, very unlikely. Should we expect the very, very unlikely?
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 10, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't think I really agree with this
There is nothing preventing him from working on his third pitch (and as pointed out, he has). Earl Weaver used to break guys in the pen all the time. Johan Santana got his feet wet in the pen. Crow is learning a lot by being in the big leagues, and we’re learning about Crow. I wouldn’t do this for every pitching prospect, but I don’t think this is a huge setback or anything.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jul 8, 2011 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, Minnesota does this all the time with young pitchers
as do some other teams. Cards did it with Wainwright. Also from what was reported, much of Crow’s struggles last year was due to a lack of command due to his year off.
If his control problems in 2010 were because he took almost all of 2009 off, then what is the reason for his control problems this year?
2010 3.6 BB/9
2011 4.2 BB/9
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Adjusting to MLB pitching?
Would you really argue that it is unrealistic to hope a pitcher can improve on his walk rate from his rookie year?
I also don’t believe a sample size of 42 IP is large enough to conclude that Crow has a serious problem with walks.
I’m not saying he’s not going to improve. I’m saying that we can’t really write off his 2010 control problems as merely the product of a one-year layoff. What we do know is that he’s had control problems in both years of his professional career. Is there any reason to believe he doesn’t have control problems? I’m not saying his control is awful, but it doesn’t look good, does it?
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we're saying the same thing
If his K rate goes down and his BB rate holds steady, then yeah, he won’t be a very effective starter. But if his higher BB rate is partially attributed to the fact that he is adjusting to MLB hitting, then there is hope that it can decline going forward and his K/BB will remain steady or even improve. Many successful starters have had high walk rates early on but improve as they gain experience; hopefully Crow will follow a similar path.
. I wouldn’t do this for every pitching prospect,
I think it works for some pitchers. If they need to work on relying on their fastball and using it and its velocity as an out pitch, then work in the bullpen could help. But if your big problems are secondary pitches and control, then moving to the bullpen doesn’t help.
Nothing is preventing him from working on his third pitch? Yes, there is. By all accounts from “real baseball men” the way you really work on a pitch is throwing it in games. Throwing in side sessions is very different. And throwing a curveball 3 times a week in an actual game doesn’t seem like enough work to actually improve the pitch.
I don’t know if we want to call it a setback or not, but it definitely isn’t a step forward. I think his minor league performance in 2010 showed that he wasn’t close to being major league ready as a starter. Given the holes in his game, I don’t think he’s a step closer right now. And the Royals are going to have wasted a year where he could have been developing as a SP. But the Royals sure got a good setup man for a 95-loss season though!
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I think his 2010 performance showed
He wasn’t close to the big leagues period. His 2011 has showed that at least he knows how to get MLB hitters out. Can he do so as a starter? That remains to be seen. I don’t know that it requires a certain number of times throwing a third pitch to develop it – to immediately dismiss his development of the third pitch as not enough strikes me as the same kind of leap of logic “real baseball men” use all the time to justify whatever old school idea they use.
I’m not saying this has been great for his development, just that I think its a huge leap to say it has definitely been bad.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I don’t know that it requires a certain number of times throwing a third pitch to develop it – to immediately dismiss his development of the third pitch as not enough strikes me as the same kind of leap of logic "real baseball men" use all the time to justify whatever old school idea they use
So you’re arguing that perhaps throwing it much less often in games, coupled with throwing it in side sessions may well improve the pitch roughly as much as if he were throwing it more often in games as a starter? I think that is counter-intuitive at best.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm saying I'm not convinced the difference in the two is much of a difference
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I should say
I don’t think the difference is enough to thrwart his development and could very well be overshadowed by the experience of actually pitching to MLB hitters.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The problem is that getting batters out the second and third time through the lineup is different from doing so the first time through the lineup. Batters have seen the fastball and slider. And velocity is decreasing. It becomes much more difficult to just rely on those two pitches and get them by a MLB batter. You have to have something else to get them out with. And I don’t think his MLB experience so far is preparing him for that. What he’s getting is good experience at being an effective MLB reliever.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
Something he’ll have to learn next year. Just like if he was in AAA right now, next year he’d have to learn how to get MLB hitters out since its a lot different than getting AAA hitters out – something he’s already learning now. I just don’t see it as a huge stunt to his development. Either way, he’s going to have to continue to develop next year or else he’s not going to be a good starter.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
BTW, I didn't see the above quote in the linked article
What I saw was this:
“If we do this, it’ll probably be next spring.”
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I was paraphrasing so the headline wasn't 50 words long
I seem to remember newspapers doing similar things all the time. Adding in an “if we do this” before it is semantics anyway. The “probably” still allows for the possibility of it not happening.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 7, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Scott is nitpicking b/c you put it in quotes.
Maybe should have gone with the “Pretty sure” and “down the road” quotes, but you’re right that it’s semantics. The thrust of the blurb on Royals.com was that Yost wants him to get back to starting, just not this season.
by OnixConcepcion on Jul 7, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Not just nitpicking. The meaning is different.
At one point he says he sees him as a starter at some point in his career. Later in the interview he says that if they do it, it will be next spring. How is this any different from his statement a month or two ago that they will re-evaluate how to use him in the offseason? It certainly doesn’t say that they have decided to convert him back to a starter.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right.
In my interpretation, it doesn’t mean he’s starting in spring either. Though it’s a possibility, it wasn’t said.
by OnixConcepcion on Jul 8, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
The development of the change and curve are key
I’m not sure it would be smart to put him in the majors now but I see no issue with sending him to the Midwest league or so and let him work his way up to AAA via a “rehab” start sort of schedule if some measure of control is there.
by WURoyal on Jul 7, 2011 11:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The best case scenario
Is they “start” him in spring training games, which means giving him three innings at first and then ratcheting it up to four or five closer to Opening Day. If he doesn’t get smoked too badly, he probably ends up making the MLB rotation because we’re going to need arms if we don’t do anything in trades or free agency. They’d hopefully keep him on a pretty strict pitch count at first and gradually ease him into a more normal starter’s role over a couple of months.
I can also see them sending him down to the minors to get stretched out, especially if he gets knocked around a little at first.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 7, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Do they ever send major leaguers down to play winter league in the Caribbean?
It seems like that would be the best way to stretch him out and let him work on his pitches in the offseason.
He ought to have plenty more innings left in his arm this year.
A couple thoughts
1. Yes major leaguers often play winter ball.
2. If he were to be a starter next year (at any level), I don’t think they’d need to stretch him out throughout the offseason. He could just do a normal winter workout routine and then get stretched out as they stretch out other starters in spring training, gradually increasing innings and pitches thrown until he’s ready to go 6+ by the end of ST.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Crow has all the tools needed to be a good starter
like walking 4 guys per 9 innings in the bullpen
oh, wait
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yeah, I'm not sure he has sufficient control to stick as a starter (a good one anyway)
Besides the lack of secondary pitches, the other main reason he was moved to the pen was his control and command problems. As a reliever, with the 4+ BB/9, he is barely maintaining a 2.0 K/BB ratio. As a starter, the K/9 rate is going to drop. Few starters can survive with a K/BB ratio under 2.0 over the long term, and those that do are generally not very good. If Crow can maintain a high groundball rate, that would certainly help, but his upside would still be pretty limited unless he can cut the walk rate.
The other problem is that he has no change up at this point — BA said that he scrapped his old one during last season while trying to learn a new one, but he has not thrown one this year (or more accurately, one this year). There are only a handful of starters who do not throw a change up at all, and most of those are either knuckleballers or rely heavily on a splitter.
Crow is one of the 147 guys in the organization
who I would rather have in the rotation than Davies. And I’m counting players only, not groundskeepers, clubhouse guys or beer vendors.
by Black and Gold on Jul 8, 2011 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Perfect.
Besides, if MN trains their young pitchers in the bullpen, it has to work.
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