Royals Prospects Progress Report
Another two months have passed, so it is time for another Progress Report. Like last time, I used NWRoyal's top 65 prospect list heading into the season, and assign them grades. These grades are cumulative, with some changing dramatically since the beginning of the season
Injuries, too many strikeouts, and a .697 OPS has led to a disappointing season so far
Player
Position/Level
Grade
Comments
OF/AA
D+
Eric Hosmer
1B/ML
A
Has been a solid contributor for the Royals as a rookie.
Mike Moustakas
3B/ML
C+
Moose has really struggled since being promoted, but should have plenty of time to figure things out
Mike Montgomery
LHP/AAA
C-
Battled consistency and control problems. Monty is pitching in a hitters environment, 5.19 ERA is average.
John Lamb
LHP/AA (DL)
-
Surgery should not be crippling to career, but completely wastes a year
Christopher Dwyer
LHP/AA
D-
A not terrible FIP is the only thing keeping Dwyer from receiving an F.
Danny Duffy
LHP/ML
B+
Has the pitching arsenal to succeed, but has battled some unexpected control problems in the majors.
| Jake Odorizzi | RHP/AA | A | Completely dominated High-A, and has shown good control in AA. May battle home run issues. |
| Christian Colon | SS/AA | C- | Slowly starting to hit better, but overall numbers not impressive. |
| Aaron Crow | RHP/ML | A | Crow has been very effective out of the bullpen this season for the Royals |
| Lorenzo Cain | OF/AAA | A- | Has hit very well for the Storm Chasers, probably ready to be called up. |
| Cheslor Cuthbert | 3B/Low-A | A | Numbers are very impressive in Low-A, and Cheslor is only 18. |
| Brett Eibner | OF/Low-A | C- | Power and patience numbers are there, batting average should come around. |
| Johnny Giavotella | 2B/AAA | B+ | Numbers are solid, but not amazing in hitters league. |
| David Lough | OF/AAA | B- | Slightly better than average hitter in AAA. Will probably need injuries/trade to see playing time in the majors. |
| Tim Collins | LHP/ML | C | Walks are starting to turn into a real problem, peripherals predict doom on the horizon |
| Jeremy Jeffress | RHP/AA | D | Royals are still trying to convert him into a starter, with no success. Jeffress will probably struggle until he is moved back into the bullpen. |
| Tim Melville | RHP/High-A | B- | Strikeouts are still a little low, but has been effective this season. |
| Robinson Yambati | RHP/Rookie | F | 18.85 ERA, 9.15 FIP. Gross |
| Yordano Ventura | RHP/Low-A | B | Strikeouts and walks look good, but is allowing too many homeruns. |
| Salvador Perez | C/AAA | B- | Was an average hitter in AA, but apparently played fantastic defense (he did throw out a ton of runners). Has been promoted to Omaha. |
| Derrick Robinson | OF/AA | C- | Starting to hit better, but hitting numbers still are below-average. Does have 41 steals. |
| Louis Coleman | RHP/ML | A | Has been impressive out of the Royals pen. SSS, but Coleman looks good against lefties in spite of his motion. |
| Jason Adam | RHP/Low-A | C+ | Control and strikeouts looks fine, but has really struggled with home runs. |
| Will Smith | LHP/AA | C+ | Has had bad luck stranding runners and with BABIP, but needs to strikeout more batters to take the next step as a prospect. |
| Paulo Orlando | OF/AA | D | Completely flopped in AAA, but has hit well since his return to AA. |
| Kevin Chapman | LHP/AA | A- | ERA has not been great this season, but FIP shows that he has been strong out of the bullpen. Striking out 32% of batters in AA. |
| Everett Teaford | LHP/AAA | B+ |
Teaford has pitched well in AA, but just ok in the majors in a small sample. It looks like the lefty is a full-time reliever now. |
| Tyler Sample | RHP/High-A | C- | Sample pitched above his head to start the season, but has now regressed too far the other direction. He needs to strikeout more than 14.5% of batters |
| Buddy Baumann | LHP/AA | C | Has not pitched since June 26 because of a shoulder injury, but solid strikeout numbers still make him an intriguing prospect. |
| Noel Arguelles | LHP/High-A | B+ | Shoulder issues may be the cause of Arguelles's lower than expected strikeout numbers, but has compensated with excellent control. |
| Jeff Bianchi | INF/AA | C- | Bianchi has been a below-average hitter in AA, and a .344 BABIP indicates he has not been the victim of bad luck. |
| Crawford Simmons | LHP/Rookie | - | Has missed the majority of the season due to injuries. Should return soon |
| Clint Robinson | 1B/AAA | B | Numbers have cooled considerably, along with the buzz surrounding him. |
| Jarrod Dyson | OF/AAA | C | Dyson is an average hitter in AAA; will probably be nothing more than a novelty in the majors. |
| Patrick Keating | RHP/AA | C | Strong strikeout numbers, horrible home runs numbers and bad luck have led to a strange season of out the bullpen. |
| Greg Holland | RHP/ML | A | Holland has been the Royals most dominant pitcher out of the bullpen so far this season. |
| Manuel Pina | C/ML | C- | Did not hit well in AAA, but will get a chance to play catcher for the Royals because of the injury to Matt Treanor. |
| Lucas May | C/AAA | F | Was horrendous for the Royals, is now hitting well for the Diamondbacks AAA team. |
| Blaine Hardy | LHP/AA | D+ | Battled control issues in AAA, but has pitched much better since returning to AA. |
| Michael Antonio | SS/Rookie | B- | Antonio has played fine so far, but numbers are not dominant. Showing improved plate discipline. |
| Kelvin Herrera | RHP/AAA | A | Started the season in High-A, now is in AAA. The hard-throwing righty has been electric for all three teams. |
| Humberto Arteaga | SS/Rookie | F | wRC+ of 44, with a BABIP of .296. Ugly start will only be improved by cutting strikeouts and increasing walks. |
| Justin Marks | LHP/High-A | B- | Intriguing strikeouts numbers, but has battled home runs and bad luck. Has pitched better than 4.73 ERA indicates |
| Elisaul Pimental | RHP/High-A | B | Pimental has pitched well in the summer heat, lowing his ERA two runs since June 1st. Has flashed improved control this season. |
| Jorge Bonifacio | OF/Rookie | B- | Has hit well, but will need to cut strikeouts (24.1%) and increase walks (4.1%) to maintain consistencty |
| Lance Zawadzki | SS/AAA | D- | Posting decent power for a shortstop, but the rest of his hitting numbers are weak, especially in a hitters league. |
| Rey Navarro | INF/AA | B+ | Overall numbers in High-A cooled after a scorching start, but were still strong enough to earn a promotion. Has been below average in AA, but not terrible. |
| Nathan Adcock | RHP/ML | C- | Not as bad as 5.36 ERA indicates, but has essentially been a replacement level pitcher. |
| Edgar Osuna | LHP/AA | D- | Osuna has had a disastrous season pitching (although he has been a victim of bad luck). Is currently on DL for shoulder injuries |
| Jose Bonilla | C/High-A | D | Has really struggled hitting over the summer; partly because of bad luck, and partly because he is not that good |
| Henry Barrera | RHP/AA | D | Missed most of the season because of an injury, and has shown electric but wild stuff in eight appearances. |
| Greg Billo | RHP/Low-A | A | Billo has quietly dominated Low-A this season, and has the peripherals to back it up. Potential diamond in the rough. |
| Kevin Pucetas | RHP/AAA | C- | Has numbers similar to Montgomery without the potential. But, he is not Jose Guillen |
| Yowil Espinal | 2B/Low-A | F |
Espinal has been horrible all season, posting a .257 wOBA in 262 PA. |
| Orlando Caxito | SS/Low-A | F | Caxito has also been horrible for the Cougars this season, posting a .243 wOBA in 182 PA. |
| Keaton Hayenga | RHPLow-A | - | Hayenga has missed most of the season with an injury. |
| Jin-Ho Shin | C/Rookie | C- | Has improved as a hitter from last season, but is still below average. Shin needs to cut down on strikeouts |
| Willian Avinazar | RHP/Rookie | - | Avinazar has only pitched 13 innings this season, with mixed results. |
| Mike Mariot | RHP/High-A | A- | Mariot has pitched well as a starter or reliever this season; improving his strikeout numbers would greatly boost his value out of the pen. |
| Brandon Sisk | LHP/AAA | B+ | Sisk has been effective out of the bullpen for the Naturals and Storm Chasers, but walking 12% of batters faced is too high. |
| Justin Trapp | SS/Rookie | A | The suspension has not slowed Trapp down; the shortstop has a 140 wRC+ mostly thanks to a surge in power. |
| Leonel Santiago | RHP/Low-A | A | Santiago continues to impress, owning a 2.86 FIP. |
| Murray Watts | 1B/Low-A | C | A .353 OBP is the only thing saving his offensive season; his strikeouts are way up while his power is way done. |
| Brian Fletcher | OF/Low-A | A | Fletcher has hit well, but looks like a candidate for regression. A low walk rate plus a .393 BABIP makes him unlikely to continue posting a .428 wOBA |
| Pat White | OF | Retired |
Out of the sixty players that I assigned grades to, I calculated the GPA of our farm system to be 2.38, or about a C+ average. I think that is an accurate representation of how our farm system has performed this year; it has not been a disaster, but it has not been as awesome as it was last season. My grading system is not perfect; I assume every prospect is equal in value, which is clearly a false assumption. For the final season grades, I would like to find a way to weight the system, but I am not sure how I would do that. Please sound off in the comments about any grades you agree with, disagree with, or something that surprised you. Lastly, I will not be able to post a Following The Royals Top Prospects post this week; I will be in Chicago hanging out with some friends and getting ready for a metal show (I don't own a laptop). So check out Dubya's Top Farm Perfomers or Pine Tar Press for your prospect fix if things get really depressing on the major league front.
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Comments
Is Bianchi still recovering from his injury?
that is a disappointing score for him.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
He is supposedly healthy, although missing all that time may have hurt his progress
Neither Bianchi or Colon has looked impressive in AA
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
power has been sapped
by the TJ surgery. Aviles last year at this time was still a month ahead of JB.
DH: Where's the party!
Danny: David Howard and Mike Sweeney! Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!
by David Howards Legacy on Aug 1, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Tim Collins shouldn't get a C
He’s in KC for one, and the amount of runs he’s given up and given up that he inherited are not too bad for a reliever. He’s a rookie for gods sake and has been OK for the Royals. For a guy who should have not even been in KC this year its better than a “C”
41 K's, 38 BBs
He has been lucky to not give up a lot more runs
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 1:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i don't know why you downgrade for peripherals there
but don’t in the case of fletcher who hasn’t drawn any raves for his ability to play a corner outfield position.
by 9il on Aug 1, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Its irrelevant how many runs he "should" have given up
because he hasn’t given them up…and should be graded accordingly, based on past pitching performance.
Collins is 21 years old. Meanwhile a pitcher drafted a few slots after Crow and one taken right after the Royals took Colon, has brought back Ubaldo Jimenez for over 2 years.
by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 1, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought a "C" grade was a little generous
but fair
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 1, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
His performance has been good
regardless of his K/BB ratio…when he has gotten into the game he has pitched well
by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 1, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Collins shouldn't get a C grade
if Crow gets an A.
One was drafted to be a top of the rotation starter and the other is 3 years younger and has cracked the LOOGY position in the Royals bullpen and pitched well.
by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 1, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Salvador should get a B+ or A-
His bat is showing constant improvement, and his already stellar defense at a premium position is showing no regression.
by YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble on Aug 1, 2011 1:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I have not seen him play defense, and I did not want to grade him on reputation.
He was a slightly below average hitter in AA, but he certainly was hitting better when promoted. B- may have been a little harsh, probably a B when factoring position and alleged greatness
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
B- is very fair there
He hasn’t earned more than that yet.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 1, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
but someone who is in rookie ball for the third straight year
and is four months younger than perez has earned an “A” for adding power to his game?
ya gotta look at levels compared to performance. I like Brian Fletcher alot
but he’s also from an SEC school and due to injuries and a cap on outfielders ahead of him has played the entire season the Midwest league which isn’t up to his level.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I saw him once...
And he is a large dude… I don’t see how he can play catcher for another 12-15 years… Assuming that he is actually good enough to play that long.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
by averagegatsby on Aug 1, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
rough year for the greatest farm system ever
will be interested to see where the org ranks next year
by Freneau on Aug 1, 2011 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm guessing 3rd overall
With at least Toronto grading higher. That assumes KC signs top 5 from this year, which seems likely.
i'd guess 4th at best behind
toronto, tb and texas
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 1, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
The Rockies
just got White and Pomeranz, two top 100 pitchers…to go along with Matzek. That’s 3 top pitchers in the top 50
by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 1, 2011 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
clearly he's impressed by over 12 bb/9....
either that or he’s just talking out of his ass…again
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 1, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
ya, but if those walks don't turn into runs its not a big deal a la collins
just flirt with disaster at all times, that will work out. that’s ideal.
even matzek doesnt really fit into gobble's distorted rule...
b/c matzek is giving up a run an inning
although, to be fair, matzek’s been better since he took some time off to go back and rework his mechanics with his HS coach…he’s still a long ways away from being a top 100, let alone top 50
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
the guy will be 21 at the end of the year, he's gonna drop way outta the top 100, but with check ins based on draft status a la kyle skipworth
not at all...
although, i’d love for dayton moore to trade for him…still has a ridiculous ceiling
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah...its highly doubtful that either
of DM acquiring him or him reaching his ceiling happen….i highly doubt Colorado is ready to punt that $7 million or whatever investment
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I know we'd be #30
But it would be a real challenge for him to fit all 15 of his Top 5 teams in.
Keith Law has them at 3
behind Tampa, and Toronto in that order
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
by averagegatsby on Aug 1, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
What did you expect
when 9(!) of these players are in the majors?
I don't know why Giavotella doesn't get an A rating considering this is an update from two months ago
absolutely dominated in that time span.
It is a cumulative grade
and his numbers are not amazing compared to his league
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 2:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
so, a young 2B should be mixed in with the Wily Mo Penas?
by 9il on Aug 1, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
If they play in the same parks and face the same pitchers, yes.
The average ERA is 5.19, so hitters have been dominant. So in context, Gio’s overall numbers have been good, not great. He is trending upward.
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 2:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, defense counts
And his defense has been decidedly below average by all accounts. I can’t see him getting more than a B+
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 1, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously, he has been dominant
And I really don’t know much about him
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 2:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Supposed to be weak
He’s described as a cerebral pitcher, which seems like code for no arm, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers he’s putting up.
Yeah, numbers like that happen from random pitchers pretty often
Any single pitcher is unlikely to have everything click for a year, but when you’ve got a system of 25 starters, the odds of one of them being randomly awesome for a year are pretty good.
Maybe Billo is good. But given that he’s still getting no attention, I’d assume there’s a reason that he is where he is.
He was drafted as a 17 year old out of high school in Chicago
So, even though he’s only 21, they org may have gotten a bit tired of him. Or maybe it’s just that they’re limiting his innings because he was converted to a starter this year. Either way, he’s been dominant all year. At a certain point, it doesn’t matter how he’s getting it done.
Throws 88-92 touches 94 in relief stints with ability to spin a breaking ball as well as having above average command.
Wouldn’t get too excited until he gets to AA. His velocity took a big step forward in the offseason and if he can continue to add ticks to it then he might be onto something.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
no made 25 starts from 08-10 always profiled as a starter
These type of guys piggyback alot of time limiting their innings and also giving others opportunities to start.
Pimentel is currently relieving but not because they have gave up on him as a starter just to limit his innings. Melville did the same thing last month.
Both could profile as relievers longterm but Melville used a slider last start out for the first time and it was quite effective
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
The big think with Billo
Is that he always had the smarts and control, but never the velocity, to be interesting in past years. This year’s uptick in velocity has changed his status for me, into one of our genuine prospects. Not a top one yet, bit definitely one to keep an eyes on.
by Prime2U on Aug 2, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The big thing with Billo
Is that he always had the smarts and control, but never the velocity, to be interesting in past years. This year’s uptick in velocity has changed his status for me, into one of our genuine prospects. Not a top one yet, bit definitely one to keep an eyes on.
by Prime2U on Aug 2, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
On Fletcher, what BABIP would we expect for Kane County?
.393 does seem high, but Cheslor and Stovall (since promoted to Wilmington) both had BABIP in the .360 range. Are all 3 of them just crazy lucky or is Eibner (.232 BABIP) just crazy unlucky? Obviously the fact that Eibner’s LD% is 8.7% and the other 3 are 19% [Cheslor], 17% [Fletcher] and 15% [Stovall] makes part of the difference, but it doesn’t seem like it should account for all of it.
.350-.360 range
These hitters are probably better than their league, so they will have a higher BABIP. Combined with not great fielding conditions and fielders, hitters can live in that range and it could be normal.
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 2:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
When you were putting this together did you notice any trends?
Given that our A and A+ teams play in pitchers leagues and our AA and AAA teams play in hitters leagues, I wondered that might affect our pitchers development.
To be clear
the grade isn’t a prospect grade correct? It’s a season grade? So it would be how’s he doing, relative to expectations.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
Yes
I am not nearly qualified enough to grade prospects
by Connor Moylan on Aug 1, 2011 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Adcock really shouldn't be graded
He’s being played above his level in order for the team to keep his rights. As it is, he’s managing to keep his head somewhat above water, but grading him on his performance in the majors is not really fair. He probably should be in AA or AAA and would be looking much better.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
I think that is reflected in the grade...
Since it would be fair to expect him to be much worse than he has been.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
by averagegatsby on Aug 1, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
What about this young up n' come'r we hear so much about Jeff.. Jeff Souppin? Sappan?
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Aug 1, 2011 4:12 PM EDT reply actions
He's so old abraham Lincoln went to high school named after him.
Stuck following the Royals since 1976.
by A. B. Aird on Aug 1, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lucas May has same basic slash line for Omaha and Reno
That’s bad because Reno is an incredible hitting environment.
Myers Not Startimg
I don't fight extra players.
by paleblueeyes on Aug 1, 2011 8:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Oops...Myers Not Starting Tonight
Attending the Natirals’ game tonight to see Odoizzi and disappointed that Myers is not in the lineup.
I don't fight extra players.
by paleblueeyes on Aug 1, 2011 8:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Your autocorrect seems to be malfunctioning
SBN's most random and mysterious lurker
though I do love Royals Review
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM
by Lum on Aug 1, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish I could say it was because I've been drinking
I don't fight extra players.
by paleblueeyes on Aug 1, 2011 8:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Grade should be based on level
So the Adcock grade is as bad as Collins.
If they were both in AAA ripping it up, they would have gotten better grades. Yeah that makes A LOT of sense…
by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 1, 2011 10:30 PM EDT reply actions
Go ahead and give us all your grades so we can see how smart you are
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Aug 1, 2011 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
No one in 10th grade would
claim that they should receive a higher grade because someone their same age is in 8th grade and dominating. I don’t pick where these guys play, I can only grade on the results.
by Connor Moylan on Aug 2, 2011 3:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Who told you Jeffress is being converted to a starter?
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I thought Dayton had said that
but I was wrong. Either way, I hate him starting
by Connor Moylan on Aug 2, 2011 3:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To give Arteaga and Calixte F's without knowing anything about their games is incredibly misinformed
These are young shortstop prospects whose hitting may come around later. You are better off not grading them if you haven’t talked to scouts about them.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
what are they 17 or 18?
yeah…i’d say that judging them based on their performances might be a little harsh…they clearly had/have tools seeing that they were given million dollar bonuses….so, unless there are new reports that those tools went away, you’d definitely be better off not giving them any grade
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 1, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Calixte is 19 but had to sit for a bit until MLB would pass him through. Even at 19 as a Dominican
the Midwest league can be a tough assignment. He has a good line drive bat and could develop some pop. Good arm
Arteaga is only 17 and is smooth with great hands on defense. His stats definitely shouldn’t be held against him. He needs to add strength to be effective with the bat.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I actually like arteaga as a prospect
but to suggest his hitting has not been disastrous because he is young would also be misleading. Grades can change quickly, and its tough for me to grade on defense, so that might boost their grade. But he has been 66% below league average hitter, I don’t care what the circumstances are that is a failure at the plate.
by Connor Moylan on Aug 2, 2011 2:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I won't say anymore cause it looks like I'm just trashing everything in here and I don't want to do that.
All I’ll say is basing grades of a 17 year old facing players that have played college ball or many high schoolers that are repeating the league is an error in my opinion
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Probably sounds ridiculous but the Royals may want to look into Wil Myers eyes
he has a ridiculous Day/Night split
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I agree
Plus his high strikeout rate might indicate he is not seeing the ball as well.
by Connor Moylan on Aug 2, 2011 2:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gia's grade is a joke
“Numbers are solid, but not amazing in hitters league”. Gia is 5th in BA in this tremendous ‘hitters’ league and the next 2b in average is hitting .313.
and whoever that 2b is....i'd bet that he's significantly better defensively than gia
gia is hitting 15% over league average….its significantly below what he did last year at AA…so, what about that makes anyone think he’s exceeded expectations?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
You have to look at where Gio plays also the majority of his games are against the eastern and
southern teams in the Pacific Coast league where the run environments aren’t quite as inflated. Omaha plays the majority of their games against Iowa, Memphis and Nashville which are all neutral run environments over the last three years. Round Rock, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and Albuquerque they have made two road trips as opposed to the West Coast one trip swing Abluquerque is the only one of that group with a positive run environment although it is very positive.
All that being said Werner plays very well for right handed hitters.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Gio's .391 OBP plus .339 BA is very impressive in his first swing through the league
whether you want to give him credit for it or not. And while his defense will never be above average or even possibly major league average his range has increased and he has played better this season. He definitely has earned an A or A- grade based on how others have been graded here.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
he's been good this year in AAA no doubt....
but he hasnt been any better than he was last year….and thats how he seemed to have graded….performance vs. expectation…
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
doesnt wRC+ on fangraphs take into account where the games are played?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
IDK if it does for minor league run environments perhaps it does
anyway you want to look at it he’s had an excellent season
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
excellent no doubt...but not better than expected i dont think
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I would have expected a dropoff that is generally what is expected as players advance levels
especially with a limited slow start which he avoided something he couldn’t avoid at other levels
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
and there's been a significant dropoff....
from his hitting last year to this year, even though he’s still been a very good hitter this year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
really???
Gia hit over .370 after the All-Star Break in Double-A last year. It appears he has been a roll for a while
yes...he hit incredibly well last year...
and has not hit as well this year…how many times do i have to say the same thing…go look at the park/league adjusted stats…he hasnt hit nearly as well this year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions
significant? I wouldn't say a .008 wOBA decrease isn't too significant when Fangraphs
hasn’t adjust for his 5-9 w/2b over the last two games. He’s had an OPS of 1.000+ in his last 55 games you can call that a significant dropoff all you want but your are wrong.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
the only difference between this year and last year is Gio hasn't played the final 27 games
his numbers will likely mirror last seasons when he plays those next 27 games
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
wRC+ is both park and league adjusted...
and he was at 139 last year and 115 this year
- This stat is context-neutral, meaning it does not take into account if there were runners on base for a player’s hit or if it was a close game at the time.
- These are the aspects of hitting that wOBA accounts for: non-intentional walks, hit-by-pitches, singles, reached on error, doubles, triples, and homeruns.
- wOBA can be converted into offensive runs above average easily. These are called Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA).
- wOBA on FanGraphs is not adjusted for park effects, but the wOBA on StatCorner is. Take your pick.- Exactly how much to weigh each of the components of wOBA was determined using linear weights. See that page for more information.
http://statcorner.com/batter.php?id=543213
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
any stat that is adjusted for context
shows him being significantly better last year than this….of course, if you only want to league at nonadjusted stats, then there’s nothing i can do. dante bichette and ellis burks were just fucking awesome.
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think I'd put too much weight on park adjustment
Considering that we don’t have the factors for the new Omaha park yet, it isn’t truly park-adjusted.
so, we should throw out the parts that take into account the other half of the games
that they can account for?
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Just pointing out that park adjustments require park factors
So it’s not fair to say that the stats are trully park adjusted.
If Gio becomes a 4A player like Ransom, Gillespie, Velazquez
Jai Miller and the rest of the AAA leader board then I will agree with you. Until then I’ll disagree and say he is having an excellent season.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
and i dont disagree...
just less excellent than last year
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree if the failed major leaguers plopped down to
single A then Cuthbert’s season just based on wRC.
Time at level matters
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I've had as much fun as I can stomach for a night
good night
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
gnight...
and if dayton is to be believed, we’ll start seeing what johnny g can/cant do in about 2 weeks….im hoping as much as anyone that he succeeds…im just not that optimistic
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I posted these a month ago
He are the park factors from statcorner:
Park Factors PCL — lefties/righties
American
ALB 117/122 (Albuquerque)
IOW 98/96 (Iowa)
MRB 95/94 (Memphis)
NAS 95/97 (Nashville)
NOZ 88/95 (New Orleans)
ORH 101/99 (Oklahoma)
OMA unavail (Omaha)
RRE 102/98 (Round Rock)
Pacific
CSP 113/113 (Colorado Springs)
FRE 96/98 (Fresno)
LVG 110/108 (Las Vegas)
REN 102/101 (Reno)
SRC 88/92 (Sacramento)
SLC 105/105 (Salt Lake City)
TAC 98/99 (Tacoma)
TUC 101/100 (Tucson)
But BeauJackson made the very good point that the difference only comes out to:
American v National for lefties: 99.4/101.3
American v National for righties: 100.1/102
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/6/28/2249611/dubyas-top-farm-performers-6-28-11#70828356
you would lose that bet
Vincent Belnome of SA. He has 8 errors with 243 AB while Gia has 10 in 440 AB’s
errors now?
after batting average in the last one? are you sure you’re on the right website?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
you suggested 'whomever was 2nd was a significantly better fielder'
I have posted the stats…you?
Possible way to weight the grading system:
Using the grade type thing analogy consider top prospects as a higher credit hour class. Guys like Hosmer, Moose, Duffy could be like a three credit class, mid tier guys as a two credit class, and low guys like a one. Simple example using the grades above with only three players on the roster:
Eric Hosmer (Top Tier) – A 4.0 × 3 = 12
Jason Adam (Mid Tier) – C+ 2.3333 × 2 = 4.6666666
Murray Watts (Bottom Tier) – C 2 × 1 = 2
Cumulative GPA (12 + 4.6666 + 2) / (3+2+1) = 3.111111111
Obviously the classification of each player kind of arbitrary, but this would weight the contribution of the top prospects more than the bottom ones.
you suggested 'whomever was second was a significantly better fielder'
I have posted my stat…and you?
i posted lots that are much more telling than BA that you ignored...
and scouting reports are much more telling as to minor league defense
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude, just tip your cap to him
You bluffed, he called it, and it turned out you didn’t have the hand you thought you did. It happens.
but out of the whole thread...
that was about the least important thing i said…and that’s the only thing that ive said that is wrong…
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
we posted the same time (1:28)
And I know it wasn’t a big deal. That’s why you tip your cap instead of calling him out for using errors. Acknowledge it and move on.
the 3rd best BA 2B is batting .295
and has 7 errors in just 105AB’s…next
ok...he sucks fielding as well...
but he’s not the point…that was just an offhand statement that happened to be wrong…the rest of the stuff ive posted…the hard data…cant be disputed. he’s hit worse this year than last…which is all that ive said….along with repeatedly saying he’s hit well this year.
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 2, 2011 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for this article,
Connor. I like reading real takes on players. Nice to know you folks at RR know what is going on. My only question I have is about Arguelles. Do you think he ever ends up starting at the major league level? And is the B+ just because of his shoulder?
thisisabaseballblog.wordpress.com
by AlexGordonHRmagnet on Aug 2, 2011 2:15 AM EDT reply actions
I know it is minor...
but why does Cain get a minus? Over .900 OPS (highest on team) with plus defense in AAA. I mean, what does he have to do? Eh, this is less a criticism and more of a “everyone knows he is killing it, right?”
His hitting is good, not great compared to his league
and I have problems giving guys too much of a reward based on defense there are no numbers for and I haven’t seen. I would rather stay conservative on the grades then reward someone too much for overrated defense
by Connor Moylan on Aug 2, 2011 3:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
9 Guys in the Bigs has to count for something!
Seriously, is there anyone else in the majors that has over 1/3rd of the roster comprised of rookies? If the rook is in the bigs, unless he can’t hit his little sister’s weight, then ought to have at least a C. Going to the bigs is a big transition, they going to struggle a little bit and frankly none of them have tanked..

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