How do you feel about Jeff Francoeur's contract extension?
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 7:35 AM EDT
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PrintThe word is that Jeff Francoeur has been signed to a 2 year, $13.5M contract extension. No word yet on the specifics, including the inevitable performance incentives and likely mutual option. Just curious as to how everyone feels about this deal.
Long story short, he was kind of good very early in his career, he followed that with several bad seasons and now he's having an above average season. Without crunching the numbers, he projects to be a below average player in 2012. But maybe he's "figured it out" and made himself into a new player and we'll see more of that the next two years. Personally, I don't think so, but I don't chew tobacco, I'm not grizzled and I've never filled out a scouting report for a MLB organization, so what do I know? Your thoughts?
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I loved it!
It was much better than Cats. I am going to see it again and again!
by Gopherballs on Aug 18, 2011 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
This is the move
that had everybody worried. 2 years wasn’t such a bad thing — but going over 5mil/yr made it worse. He may have turned the corner, but it is not likely that he will outplay that contract by any significant amount. They paid market value to lock up a player that other teams were not going out of there way to buy at the deadline.
by bas on Aug 18, 2011 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
Remember when we were all joking around about the inevitable 2/10mil extension? We’ve bumped the reverse jinx.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Aug 18, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
This was almost inevitable.
Given Dayton’s father to Frenchy’s son relationship/ex-Brave thing, I’ve been resigned to this happening pretty much from the time Frenchy had a good April.
Ehh.
I have mixed feelings on it. Francoeur is a decent player, but he is just that: Decent. He isn’t an all star, but he has been a contributor. I still think it’s stupid that they’re blocking Lorenzocaine, though.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Wow, I thought there was more Francoeur love around here
Those who think he’s an average or better MLB player should love this deal.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
you can think he's average and still think its a bad move
i think he’ll be somewhere around there…but i’d much rather have melky, cain and gordon out there…i think i went with the middle option
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 18, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
For those who thought that Moore might have "figured" it out last offseason, learned from his mistakes and turned a corner
Do you think that this is evidence that the above is not true? Or do you see this as another good move for Dayton?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
I think all of his moves get blasted by people that have too much time on their hands.
I don’t think this is a good move, in fact I don’t like it, but I don’t think its awful either. I think it should have been 2/9 or something of that nature. But let’s see how all of this plays out. I’ll be very disappointed if Cain doesn’t make it up next year, but I think he will. I think they will sign Melky to another 1 year deal, and sign Alex for 4/35ish. So Cain will not be starting up here next year. But what are the chances all 3 of Gordon, Melky, and Frenchy stay healthy all next year and play well? I will be really surprised if Cain doesn’t get 200 ABs if he is tearing up AAA again. Then if we are contending he will stay up, and if we aren’t , whoever isn’t performing will get moved for him. Yeah, I think they should bring up this year. But I don’t think he is ruining him by leaving him down another half season.
hmm
I think all of his moves get blasted by people that have too much time on their hands.
Yep, I should probably just kill myself, too much time on my hands! I’m such a waste.
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Chill, I'm posting too, dude.
I’m just saying it’s easy to look at this all day and be pissed about blocking a prospect, but known commodities are valuable too. Wasn’t Matt’s analysis that he has to put up 1.5 WAR a year for us to break even? So if GMDM thinks he can be an average player for 2 years, its a fine deal. What are the projections for LoCain? And we still have him! So if Frenchy tanks, we can still bring him up. He has to take some risks somewhere, and this seems like a fairly reasonable one. Not my favorite, but not outlandish.
I think all of his moves get blasted by people that have too much time on their hands.
Maybe there’s real reason to criticize many of Moore’s moves. And maybe those criticisms are actually about something substantive.
I’m just saying it’s easy to look at this all day and be pissed about blocking a prospect, but known commodities are valuable too
There’s a real question about what Francoeur is “known” to be. Is he good? Is he average? Is he below average? I think a lot of people don’t like the move because they disagree with Moore about how good this “known quantity is”.
Wasn’t Matt’s analysis that he has to put up 1.5 WAR a year for us to break even? So if GMDM thinks he can be an average player for 2 years, its a fine deal.
Yes, and the numbers don’t support that conclusion. The numbers don’t support most of the moves Moore has made. And most of those moves haven’t panned
What are the projections for LoCain? And we still have him!
Cain has the potential to be good. And he’s part of the future of this team. Francoeur is a short-timer at best. And likely to not be even average. So Cain should be developed in the majors (as he’s major league ready) in 2012 while this team improves and then will hopefully be hitting the ground running in 2013 when the team hopefully is ready to contend. Instead, his devlelopment is stunted and his talented wasted in Omaha, or on the bench in KC.
And we still have him! So if Frenchy tanks, we can still bring him up
But that’s the deal. If he plays at his expected 1-1.5 WAR level, Moore and Yost won’t see that as “tanking”. They’ll keep playing the $13.5M man. Do you think Moore and Yost are going to bench Francoeur? They LOVE him. You don’t bench the team leader that everyone loves and looks up to. You don’t bench the guy with great intangibles. They are going to play him every single day, come hell or high water.
He has to take some risks somewhere, and this seems like a fairly reasonable one. Not my favorite, but not outlandish.
He needs to take risks that have high upside. This isn’t one of them. The ceiling on this move is low. You know what kind of risk has a lot of upside? Making Cain an everyday player in KC. And that’s a risk that doesn’t cost the Royals anything except for his league minimum salary.
I will be really surprised if Cain doesn’t get 200 ABs if he is tearing up AAA again
That’s unrealistic. Moore didn’t care about Cain tearing it up in Omaha this year with Gordon, Melky and Francoeur in the KC OF. Why would it be different next year? Do you think Moore is going to have Melky and Francoeur on a short leash and will bench them as soon as they play poorly? That isn’t Moore’s M.O. Your expectations are unrealistic. We’re talking about Dayton Moore here. You sound like the people who assured me in the late winter that Moore would trade both Melky and Francoeur if they were having decent seasons. Expecting the smart move from Dayton Moore is rarely a good idea.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 18, 2011 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Fine Scott, your mind is made up.
All I know is Matt Klaassen, using whatever projections he is using (I don’t know, I just think his opinion is well respected on here and deservedly so), predicts 1-1.5 WAR for Frenchy next year. And GMDM gave him a contract roughly in line for that, even though we know he expects him to be league average. It just seems to be a lot to get worked up about. We already have a lot of big risks on the team right now for next year: Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Giavotella, Perez, Duffy, Paulino. I’m not going to worry too much about this move.
Regarding the ABs, I do believe you can force GMDMs hand. See: Giavotella, Johnny. If one of the OFs is stinking and Cain is still killing it, he’ll get a shot.
Also, I’m amazed at the authoritative nature of your assessment on Cain’s development. There is nothing to argue with in your statements, just opinions, so I’m not going to. We disagree.
That 1-1.5 WAR
assumes he gets a pretty substantial chunk of playing time. If you get 1.5 WAR from a position player and pay average $/WAR for that – you are still spending 1 of your positions on a guy that isn’t producing that much value.
If you want to be competitive and move the Royals from where they are now to the point of contention, I think you really need to set your sights higher than 1.5 WAR for a full-time player.
Dayton Moore yet again mis-evaluating a player and blocking a prospect IS worth getting worked up about
These are my opinions, and they may be wrong. But we’re not talking about some small, insignificant matter. Dayton Moore has chosen an everyday RFer who is (IMO) likely to be below average the next two years. At the same time, he’s blocking a prospect with significant upside.
We already have a lot of big risks on the team right now for next year: Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Giavotella, Perez, Duffy, Paulino
You can add Francoeur to that list. That is unless you’re comfortable with getting a rock solid 1 WAR from the Royals RFer. Whew, I’m glad we have that locked down.
Regarding the ABs, I do believe you can force GMDMs hand. See: Giavotella, Johnny. If one of the OFs is stinking and Cain is still killing it, he’ll get a shot.
Do you really think Moore has the same opinion of Francoeur that he has of Getz? Do you think he has the same affinity for Francoeur that he had of Getz? Francoeur is going to get one hell of a long rope. Don’t kid yourself.
Also, I’m amazed at the authoritative nature of your assessment on Cain’s development.
Are you talking about me saying that he’s major league ready? He’s hitting as well as Gia did in Omaha. And Gia still had some hitting issues (like plate discipline) as Cain does. Did you not think Gia was major league ready?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 18, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Should we make a list of prospects GMDM has blocked during his tenure here?
1) Aviles
2) Kila
3) Kila (Let’s be honest, he deserves mention twice)
…there may be more, but those are the big ones off of the top of my head.
I just don’t see the prospect blocking argument as a valid critique of DM. Yes he loves tools, and yes, we weighs them more heavily than he does stats, but I just don’t think we can say he’s been killing us (lately) by doing so, and has certainly been promoting eagerly. He weighs the two different than you and I, so you say that’s wrong. But I just don’t see the numbers there to back that claim up. Hell, just looking at this year, his love of tools has netted us 3 players worth 7.2 WAR for the cost of ~4 million, just the kind of FA acquisitions we talked about were necessary to surround home-grown talent with to win. Why haven’t you been lauding those moves? What shrewd talent acquisition and excellent evaluation of talent!
And your prospect with “significant upside” is a guy that has never been highly touted and who doesn’t walk and has limited power, and we both know how often prospects fail, right? Why aren’t we leaning on those numbers now that it hurts your assessment of GMDM?
All that being said Scott, I agree with you on what I think are the right moves. I think he paid too much, no more than 2/9, otherwise, let him try to get that elsewhere. I think we should platoon Frenchy w/ Melky or ship one off if we get a good offer (which I don’t think we did, but who knows). I think LoCain should be playing everyday.
But here’s where I don’t agree. Earlier this summer, Hosmer is too soon. Moose is too soon. Gia is too late. Cain is too late. Perez is too soon. Is there any way any person could meet your (or a lot of this board’s) expectations? I just feel like the reactions at this point are overblown, and just like GMDM (and every scientist I know here in academia, not meant as an attack, just pointing out reality), you lean on the numbers more when they support your view. Yeah, not your favorite move. Mine either. Not your favorite GM. Mine either. But we both know that, so let’s look at what it is, recognize what it could mean, but not freak out about future mistakes at least until he makes them. This is a mistake, a minor one. It could lead to bigger ones. When Cain is OPSing .900 at Omaha all next year, I promise I’ll be screaming Cain NOW as loud as everyone else, and we can both agree DM has gone way too far and really screwed the pooch. Just no sense in getting the blood pressure way up until he does it tho. Or lambasting others that think its not awful, just meh. We’re not allowed to fire him, and I doubt Glass reads these.
Nice draft though, huh?
by play4'ships on Aug 19, 2011 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I just don’t see the prospect blocking argument as a valid critique of DM.
I’m not saying he always does this. There have been a handful of times in which he’s chosen poor veterans over prospects that have made no sense, but I’m not saying this is something he always does. My point is that he’s doing it here, and to the detriment of building a contending team.
But I just don’t see the numbers there to back that claim up. Hell, just looking at this year, his love of tools has netted us 3 players worth 7.2 WAR for the cost of ~4 million
Yes, you don’t see the numbers to back up the claim that Moore’s process of evaluating major leaguers leads to poor acquisitions because you’re looking at only one year. Does it make sense to evaluate a GM based only on what he’s done in one year? Or should we look at more of his tenure? If you do, his process has yielded horrible results. And I’m not talking about wins and losses. I’m talking about the performances of the major league players he’s acquired.
just the kind of FA acquisitions we talked about were necessary to surround home-grown talent with to win. Why haven’t you been lauding those moves?
Because I think he got lucky with this unlikely performances. And because I think those performances are unlikely to be repeated. And because Dayton Moore doesn’t understand this, and so he’s doubling down on the initial mistake with a 2-year extension in the case of Francoeur. Process counts. And Moore’s flawed process has yielded a ton of horrible results. We shouldn’t change our minds about that process based on the good-to-decent performances guys like Melky and Francoeur. I’ll give him credit for those data points. And at the same time, I’ll look at all data points to evaluate him.
And your prospect with "significant upside" is a guy that has never been highly touted and who doesn’t walk and has limited power, and we both know how often prospects fail, right? Why aren’t we leaning on those numbers now that it hurts your assessment of GMDM?
Because a team like the Royals should almost always choose the prospect with upside over the known quantity below average player. This is doubly true when the prospect would get paid $450K and the known quantity below average player will get paid $6.75M per year. Sure Cain could fail. But that doesn’t mean you don’t give a prospect a shot. The fact that most prospects fail is a good reason to limit expectations. It’s not a good reason to choose below average vets over giving prospects a shot, particulary when you’re talking about a season in which the team is unlikely to contend.
Earlier this summer, Hosmer is too soon. Moose is too soon. Gia is too late. Cain is too late. Perez is too soon. Is there any way any person could meet your (or a lot of this board’s) expectations?
Yes. For me, he could have not called up Hosmer this year. I would have liked that. He could haved traded away Francoeur for anything and promoted Cain. Basically I thought Gia was called up a month or so later than he should have been. DM was pretty close to the mark, in my opinion. I give Moore credit when and where credit is due. There’s a reason you don’t see me complaining about his draft or his Latin American FA acquisitions this year. I think he did well. I think he did well with the Paulino acquisition. I think he did well with the Francis signing. When Moore does something I agree with, I’m happy to laud him, and I do so.
I just feel like the reactions at this point are overblown,
I think the Francoeur extension and Cain-block are big deals. Some things that we criticize are small things. And if those small things were exceptional occurrences because Moore doesn’t usually make a lot of mistakes, then I think big reactions would be unwarranted. Instead, the little mistakes Moore makes are more among many. When he keeps making the same mistakes over and over again (and when he makes new ones), it is extremely disheartening. It would be nice to see him learn from his mistakes and improve. Instead, following the Royals transaction wire is like getting beaten with a bag of nickels. The blows just keep on coming. Every little blow kind of pisses off the fans who are fed up with Moore’s malfeasances.
but not freak out about future mistakes at least until he makes them.
Moore doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore. And we’ve seen him long enough to know his M.O. He gives the players he really likes a lot of rope. He keeps them out there a long time when they aren’t performing well. He usually keeps them a season or more longer than he should have. Based on his track record, there’s no reason to believe that Moore will bench Francoeur next season if he’s not performing well. And, since he promised Francoeur a starting job for the 2011 season when he initially signed him, don’t you think it is likely that a similar promise was made to get him to re-sign and avoid free agency? And Moore and Yost honor those promises.
no sense in getting the blood pressure way up until he does it tho.
Look, this signing didn’t happen in a vacuum. And it’s not like Moore has no track record and is a complete unknown to us. You don’t have to be Kreskin to read the tea leaves here.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
a friendly piece of advice:
anytime you are tempted to start a sentence with the word “look,”—either orally or in writing, count to 10 and start over…
Or, said another way, there should be a law banning all of my pet peeves.
"Shot by my own men."
by StonewallPDS on Aug 19, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair point
It is an unfortunate habit. Sometimes my writing is more conversational than it probably should be. And it is usually is intended as “Look, I’m trying to be reasonable…” as opposed to “Look, you’re really pissing me off.”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm Matt and I am an "of course"-a-holic
I’m taking it day-by-day.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 19, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Is listening to our president like nails on a chalkboard to you?
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Aug 19, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
In 2007, Yes
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 19, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Where are all of your posts lauding DM?
Even here, blatantly called out, you dismiss the moves as “he got lucky with this unlikely performances.” Hardly a fair critique. Anytime you suggest a player and he then goes out and has a better year than scouts think, should we say, “Oh, he got lucky?” I can’t believe you think you give credit where credit is due. If so, your volume knob on excitement is way out of wack, stuck on 1 for positive and 11 for negative moves. And I think that skews your own judgement of the overall picture.
I also find it very arrogant that anyone not using “your” process is wrong. My field is probabilistic modeling. I’m a numbers and modeling guy, trust me. But that also means I know there is a LOT of currently unaccounted for variance in player performance past where the models get us. Modeling the average only does so much good when you make small sample transactions. So GMDM thinks he has found other things that might help predict performance. And his last 3 transactions have been spot on. Also, Meche was a solid pickup, (he was abused, money was a little high again – a theme). Over the course of his tenure, which I am considering, I don’t think he has done well with this facet of his job (Guillen, Jacobs, Betancourt), and I think his model of who to acquire is flawed, but I don’t think he’s been the disaster you present. I actually allow the positive data points to have weight, where you dismiss them and only count the mistakes.
Really, the whole reason I posted in this thread yesterday is for 2 reasons:
- You made this fanpage just so you could ridicule anyone who doesn’t think this post signals armageddon. You’ve done it before. I must keep missing when you ridicule people for not recognizing a great move like grabbing Paulino. I’m sick of it. Scroll through this page. Your frustration with this move is definitely towards the end of the spectrum, not “the Truth.”
- You are holding GMDM to the standard of optimal GM – basing optimal on what you would do, or sometimes even higher – on what hindsight tells us. Anything fluctuating from that is a mistake in your eyes, either minor or major, leading to a lot of mistakes. I don’t think there is a single GM out there you would be happy with, just less pissed. Maybe consider this while judging?
I don’t think GM is a great GM. He’s about like this signing, pretty meh. Because you know what? We have the youngest team in the MLB that really has a chance to take the steps to become one hell of a lineup in the next couple years. And that is something, especially considering the state of affairs 5 years ago. And we still have a pretty solid farm system despite promoting so many. GMDM’s going to get the shot to get us all the way over the top the next few years. Admittedly, I’m skeptical he can do so, and hope he’s gone after 2013 if he’s shown he can’t, but this is a pretty good time to be a royals fan, and I’m not going to blow this move out of proportion and take away from that.
by play4'ships on Aug 19, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
If Frenchy's batting 150/150/200 they wont bench/move him,
see Kendall, Jason. This is all about Leadership, Veteran Presence, Naked Batting Practice, Grit and not ‘out-talenting’ other teams.
The Pregame Frogger
interview is of the radio now.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
I love it!
Why wouldn’t we want to keep together the core of a 66 win team for a run at the playoffs next year?
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KC_Satchmo on Aug 18, 2011 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Agree with this comment from fangraphs:
Could Francoeur feasibly live up to this contract? Sure, I guess. But who else would have given him this much money to play on their team? The Royals bid against themselves here. I can’t imagine another big league team (outside of perhaps LA/Colletti) even offering Frenchie a starting job, much less $13.5 mil guaranteed over two years. It’s just far too much money for a guy who, despite having a decent enough year, isn’t in demand at all and could have been signed for much much cheaper.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Aug 18, 2011 9:43 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Moore is the master at this
Mis-evaluating talent, mis-reading the market, and then over-bidding the rest of the universe with a big contract offer which is unwarranted and unwise.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 18, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Master?
He’s got a lot of competition for mis-evaluating and over-bidding. some examples of (IMHO) overblown contracts:
Adam Dunn
Carl Crawford
Vernon Wells
Alfonso Soriano
Torii Hunter
Barry Zito
Miguel Batista
Gary Matthews, Jr.
B.J. Ryan
Brandon Inge
That information is somewhat classified.
Yeah, dead on.
It’s frustrating that so often GMDM outbids himself in these situations. Wasted money.
I voted 'meh'
I know it is blasphemy to say this with a straight face, but there is SOMETHING to having good, quality guys in a locker room filled with < 25 year old guys.
Is that something worth $13.5M over 2 seasons? Not by itself, but when paired with average MLB production, it isn’t the end of the world.
What we don’t know are the companion moves to this move…
Will Lorenzo Cain be traded? Will Melky be traded? Will one of them be packaged with a A prospect to bring back a #1/#2/#3 starter? Will we see AG, Melky & Frenchy 145 games next year w/ LoCain/Lough/Wil sitting in Omaha?
If GMDM DOES turn Melky/Cain + a prospect (or 2) into a #1/#2 SP, that makes this deal a lot better, as you can’t do one w/o the other (and retain depth at MLB & MILB).
The dollars don’t bother me at all. This team is averaging over 20K a night, and that number is sure to go up at LEAST 10% next year w/ the season ticket surge for A.S. Game tickets and the prospects of the light at the end of the tunnel.
BOOM! ROASTED!
I've used tried to think that
and yet Moore burned me almost every time.
“Well, I don’t really like Howell for Gathright on it’s face, but if does the obvious next move and trades DeJesus….”
“Well, I don’t like the Ross Gload extension, even though it was obvious it was coming, but it’s not like he’s going to be playing every day”
“Ha, Sidney Ponson. Oh well, he’s just AAA depth, it’s not like he’s going to make any starts in the majors”
“I hate hanging on to Grudzielanek, but I guess on the bright side, they’ll get a compensation pick from it”
Unless I'm wrong...
by Top Ramen on Aug 19, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Occam's Razor; Know
It, live it where GMDM is concerned. He is who we thought he is; crown his ass.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 19, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
You forgot
“Hey, at least Willie Bloomquist means Tony Pena, Jr. won’t be on the team any more!”
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 19, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I really need to work on Episode 2 of Royals Review TV
There is so much material out there. I don’t know where to start.
Not a good extention...
One year at 5 million, and I would have held my nose and prayed for Wil Meyers to turn it around. This is another dumb one on DM, for all of the fine reasons posted above. It’s not so much the flawed Francouer that bothers me as much as the flawed logic used to acquire and keep him.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
The problem is that $7 million is real money.
I’d much rather see those resources devoted to getting at least a league average starter by taking on a bad contract guy.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Aug 19, 2011 9:43 AM EDT reply actions
To be fair, we're talking about Francoeur
He’s from Georgia, so maybe he’s going to be paid in Confederate dollars.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 19, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
PAYROLL CRIPPLERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
WILL MEYERS IS BLOCKED ARGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
APOLOGISSSSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
(this is about as fair as the snark to which this is a reply)
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Its gonna suck watching all of the outstanding 6.75M FA outfielders KC missed out on
oh wait there won’t be any. Maybe they should just keep clutching at 1-2M lottery tickets because that works out so well for other teams.
None of us wanted Melky or Frenchy and I had doubts about Gordon but this team isn’t stuck with Melky or Frenchy longterm and Gordon could be receiving a longterm deal very shortly.
Hardly a calamity
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
"Hardly a calamity"
True, just a mistake. Moore could have done something to help build a contending team. Instead he signed Jeff Francoeur to a 2/13.5 deal. That’s kind of why a lot of people don’t like this move.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Damming with very faint praise
Hardly a calamity
Edgar knows best.
by kcbottom9th on Aug 19, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
the reality is
The reality is that Francoeur detractors didnt like the signing last year, and will not like the extension this year under any circumstance. If Francoeur had doubled or even tripled his production this year, they would like it even less. This year wouldnt be called a fluke, it would be “luck”. Admitting that his signing is at worst a neutral move hurts the argument that GMDM is a total idiot. The fact is that this guy is moving into his prime. He should be trending upwards, not downwards.
by PeteThecow on Aug 19, 2011 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The reality is that Francoeur detractors didnt like the signing last year, and will not like the extension this year under any circumstance.
I think we evaluate Francoeur fairly. This season is a data point, and it is a data point that wasn’t there when he was acquired in the offseason. So his true talent level looks better now than it did then. But one season does not erase the rest of his career. While his projections look better now, they continue to look decidedly below average. I’m not saying that this year is merely luck or a fluke. But it is just one data point among many.
The fact is that this guy is moving into his prime. He should be trending upwards, not downwards.
The average career peak for MLB players is about 25. So how is he now “moving into his prime”? And even if he’s at a point in his development curve where he should be improving (and at his age, he really isn’t), when projecting you still have to figure in regression to the mean.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
i thought the average peak season was 27?...when did that change?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 19, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Hitting = 27
WAR is 25, speed and defense and positional changes already begin to drag down a player.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 19, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, that's a good clarification
And Francoeur does get a fair amount of value from his defense. And if runners stop running on him so much and his ARM score goes down… yikes.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
is there any reason to believe that arm strength decreases this early?
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by billybeingbilly on Aug 19, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think there is
I said “if runners stop running on him so much” then his ARM score will go down. It is range that really decreases with age.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
ARM UZR scores remain fairly constant over a players age:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/20/873802/outfield-uzr-component-aging
Range is the killer. Jose Guillen had a good arm, but my Grandma with 2 bad knees and walker might of had better range.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 19, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
My point with regard to his arm is that it seems like one reason that his ARM scores have spiked this year is that with all of this playing time in a new league, players apparently don’t know not to run on him. While I don’t think that will suddenly stop, I do expect fewer players to run on him next year, so I think his ARM score will settle down closer to his career average.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
if players stop running on him...
does that actually lower the value of his arm?…even now, with all of the assists, the risk pays off for the runner more often than not. if runners quit running, does that value come close to the outs that he gets?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 19, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes because they stay on base.
Baserunners (especially with the Royals pitching staff) are bad.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
It all depends on the sample one uses to determine peak season
If you include all players, including ones who flame out early and don’t play to age 27, then the peak age is earlier. If you select out all of those players and include only players who have many PA’s, then the peak is later. Quite frankly, I think 26 is a more reasonable number. Regardless, I don’t think a guy who is turning 28 in January can be fairly said to be “moving into his prime”.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
my error
You have got me on this one. I always assumed decent players came into the league around 24 or so and progressed in production for 5-6 years. If what you are saying is correct, we are already in trouble with Cain. He will be 26 next year, we have already missed his peak.
Another good reason to have called up Cain this year
Instead of waiting to give him regular playing time in….2013? Well, I hope it is that soon. The Melky extension may come next year.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty much, yep.
The problem is that he outWARs some guys who have a far better OBP and it’s not fair, is it, when the numbers say he’s an average player having an average season and being paid an average salary.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Should we expect this to continue in 2012 and 2013?
That’s the question. Congratulations, on a good season, Jeff. But is this really how good you are going to be going forward? I don’t think the numbers support that contention.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
"the numbers"
say that he’s had an odd career (no doubt), but averaged roughly 2 WAR per full season. This season isn’t a career best by any stretch. His numbers this year aren’t being buoyed by BABIP the way that they were in 2005 and 2007 – it makes this year feel less flukey, anyway. If he’s merely average (let’s say 4 WAR total) for the next two years, then that’s one less thing to worry about.
I agree with your point that if he’s the one to blame for blocking LoCaine, then I’m not a fan of this deal. I just don’t get all your hate for the guy when he’s been productive this year, and trying to change the peak age of a player to 25 is just blather on your part. In fact, it’s kind of embarrassing.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
10.4 WAR in 7 seasons is not 2 WAR per season
And there’s no reason to believe he’ll be a 2 WAR season in either of 2012 or 2013, much less in both seasons.
And I don’t hate Francoeur. I’m sure he’s a great guy. And he’s not a bad player. He’s a below average player who is having an above average season. Good for him. I just don’t want the Royals wasting money and playing time on him.
and trying to change the peak age of a player to 25 is just blather on your part. In fact, it’s kind of embarrassing.
Peak are for WAR is 25. At least that’s what the research says. Should I be embarrassed by that?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing that upsets me most
is the whole leadership angle. If they would just say, hey we really think Jeff has turned a corner…he’s young…his most productive years are ahead of him and all that, I’d say meh. but they continually shove the whole leadership angle down our throats. Here’s the thing – good teams go out and get good players, win championships, then write books about who the leaders were.
I get that leadership is important, but is pre-annointing your team leader is any better than allowing the natural leaders to rise to the top? Maybe one of these young kids is the type of natural born leader who has the right “stuff” to get the team over the top, but he can’t really show it because, hey, that’s Frenchy’s job.
Also, they talk about how everyone is having fun, its a cohesive clubhouse, and frenchy is a big part of that and yada yada yada. it all reminds me of when I played softball with a bunch of guys that didn’t really care about winning, we just wanted to get together, drink beer make fun of each other. We laughed at other teams for being so “serious”. other teams laughed at us for sucking. On some level, I’m afraid thats where we are with the Royals.
Bottom line is – its not the contract that bothers me, its what it says about how this front office seems to value leadership and chemistry and having fun over talent. It is not a recipe for winning championships.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Aug 19, 2011 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I'm willing to give a $500K bonus per year for all "team leaders"
But that’s about it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
It's like when people say...
“If you could, you’d have 9 of [Player’s name] on your team.”
This only makes sense if you qualify it by saying you’d like 9 guys with that same attitude. But instead, people make a broad statement about the guy. And normally, it’s somebody like Jeff Francoeur, Ryan Theriot, or Derek Jeter. A team of Jeter clones would still suck.
Hold your tongue
That's a team of hall of famers
by OnixConcepcion on Aug 20, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm against every dollar we spend...
that isn’t on starting pitching.
Dirty, but is not entirely because of the Frenchy signing.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 19, 2011 10:43 AM EDT reply actions
I voted "dislike"
and I’m generally pro-Frenchy. Seems to me like Moore was bidding against himself, because no one else is going to want to give Frenchy seven million dollars a year.
Frenchy should be a platoon right-handed bat. He’s a good fielder and baserunner, and I am even willing to give him veteran leadership bonus points, but he is a below-average hitter against righty pitching. He’s not a disaster and it wouldn’t suck if one of the other three guys (Alex, Lorenzocaine, Cabrera) went down and Frenchy had to play every day.
But he shouldn’t play every day, he should play two or three days a week, and he should get paid like a guy who plays 30%-40% of the games.
Oh, well, he’s better than Scotty Pods, no matter what.
One comment: If they stop running on him, his ARM score will go down, but his value shouldn’t, since other teams will be giving up fewer outs but gaining fewer bases. You know, it’s like saying “Bench’s value has gone down because he only threw out five runners,” except that only twelve guys tried to steal on him.
"When asked who was responsible for his going down in flames
He pointed to the offices and said 'You all know their names'
So hurry home early, hurry, let's go
Boom Boom Mazzaro's facing Robby Canó" --Not Warren Zevon
: If they stop running on him, his ARM score will go down, but his value shouldn’t, since other teams will be giving up fewer outs but gaining fewer bases
The problem there is that those two things aren’t of equal value. There’s much more value in erasing a base runner and adding an out, than merely limiting a base runner’s advance by one base.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
how many runners would have to not go per assist to make it roughly equivalent?
3? 4?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 19, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
did vlads arm become less valuable after his first couple years in the league?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 19, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I can only speculate that it did
Don’t know for sure. The only numbers I have are from UZR’s ARM score from 2002 on. And his ARM score dropped over that period.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
there is some through to it, let me see if I can find the numbers.
I know that Bench got too, good and no one would run on him. Most SB don’t hit the break even point, so he wanted to to try a bit more.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 19, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone more familiar with the specific run values could give you a better answer to that question
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
THIS IS AN OUTRAGE!!!!!
Just kidding. I voted “Meh” since that pretty much sums up my feelings on all things Royals these days. I don’t really give a crap who is on the field. Win more games, Royals. I demand it!
Meh (or maybe just a little bit worse than Meh), here's why
the bad:
1. Overpaid, though only slightly.
2. One “good” year seems to have trumped the previous several bad years.
3. Blocking prospects, especially Cain (and MITCH, for that matter), with higher-paid players – that is not a recipe for small-market success.
4. Paid for “leadership”. No, it’s not the end of the world, but at the same time I’m sure there’s “leadership” out there at a cheaper price.
the good:
5. If Melky is traded, the “blocking players” argument mostly goes away as Cain/Maier will get PT.
6. IF (and that’s a big “if”), Moore believes that Frenchy’s new patience at the plate is for real, then making a gamble on Frenchy’s extension is actually the kind of move the Royals need to make.
7. Even if the “new patience” doesn’t stick around, at least it’s not a crippling deal. He’s at least got a high floor – he’s not Yuni or JoaGui. More upside than downside is a good thing.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 19, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions
Jeff Francoeur's high floor
2009 0.3 WAR
2010 0.6 WAR
I wouldn’t describe that as high.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 19, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
It's ABOVE replacement
Thus, if the “floor” is replacement, Francoeur is above it, which necessarily means he’s HIGHER than the floor. Hence, “high floor.”
Strategery.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Aug 19, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, that's actually sort of what I mean.
He’s not going to average negative value over several seasons like JoGui or Yuni. (Let me just double-check if Francouer actually had any negative WAR seasons or stretches…) (Oops, he had one: -0.8 in 2008 for ATL, followed by the 0.3 and 0.6 mentioned above. I guess I’m an optimist.)
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 19, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
How many Ron Polk points does Freedomy get for signing a two year extension?
is it even a real number?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Technically, Dayton gets 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Polk Points for making the signing
a $20 gift card to Denny’s, an autographed copy of this book, and he finally completes his Leadership Merit Badge.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Aug 19, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Merely dislike
Sporadically musing on the Royals at Royalscentricity and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
Enjoy the victory lap, Scott!!
I’m pretty sure this is the worst-case scenario you predicted when Francouer signed last winter. He’s having a year that’s not good enough to generate any trade interest but taken on its own is good enough to deserve a multi-year extension.
Of course, at the time, your “worst-case” scenario seemed like some serious counterintuitive ass-covering. As in: “Francouer will be terrible, but if he is good it will actually be worse for the Royals.” And so despite being dead wrong in your prediction for his performance this season, you still get to crow about how you were right all along. You can understand how this may be infuriating to folks. Also, you should probably stop saying that “Moore’s doubling down on his initial mistake.” Only the most hard-headed process Nazis are still clinging to the idea that the initial signing was a mistake.
He’s a below average player who is having an above average season.
This sentence is a real trojan horse. It seems perfectly innocent: reasonable, seemingly neutral, fact-based, empirical—undeniable. I would argue that it’s not innocent but that it’s a way to advance a narrative that’s just as specious and hard to stomach as the “best shape of his life” narratives that we’re forced to choke down every March.
It’s my opinion that statements like the above disregard essentially every ostensible strength of the current Royals front office. Statements like this show that fans who rely solely on statistical analysis will always view scouting-based organizations as hopelessly retrograde regardless of outcome. Saying that someone IS a below-average player having an above-average season implies that there is sufficient sample-size available for analysts to have high confidence in his performance going forward and that the current season is an aberration and not reflective of his true ability. And this certitude combined with the inability of statistical analysis to make adjustments for incremental scouting information means that there is nothing that any scout can say that will have any material impact on the analyst’s view of what a player is. One can sense the eyes rolling across the blogosphere whenever we hear of a mechanical adjustment or significant weight loss.
I guess my point is just to reiterate that as long as Moore’s in charge, these will be the types of players that the Royals sign: good tools/bad stats. These signings will always infuriate fans who rely on stat-based projection tools for their opinions (myself included). And when these signings succeed I may as well call it luck, or magic, or an act of God, because I understand scouting and development with about the same acuity as I understand the supernatural.
by billexgordler on Aug 20, 2011 1:08 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Good post.
I think you got at the heart of some of the things I was attempting to in my posts above.
Agreed with some and disagree with some.
Great comment as a whole though.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
somehow after reading these
I feel like defending this a little, even though I voted dislike.
I am willing to concede the fact that Frenchy is likely to regress, and this is probably a career year. I will concede that Moore overpaid- I would have been somewhat OK with $10 million or under. But this is not the end of the world.
In regards to Myers, Frenchy is not blocking him in 2012. He was not going to be here anyway, unless he had Hosmer type numbers in mid year. 2013 is another matter, but it remains to be seen whether this year of struggles for Myers is a blip on the radar screen on the way to success or a sign of things to come. Even highly touted prospects sometimes don’t make it all the way. I think the likely path is a 2012 started in AA and ending in AAA, and a 2013 started in AAA and hopefully ending in the Majors. If Myers develops quickly there is always the option of a trade of Frenchy later. If it is more slowly he can start in 2014 at the age of 23.
As far as Cain goes, Melky is the guy in his way. I don’t see him as a centerfielder, but it is obvious the Royals do. Chances are that if they decided to keep Melky , they would see them both as CF’s anyway, and would go shopping for an RF anyway. If they decide they are high on Cain, they still have the option of selling Melky high in the off season, If they are not so high, it is not like Melky is blocking a superstar. Cain will probably be a decent major league player and a plus in the field, but he is 25, one year younger than Melky, and behind him in development. He would have a chance to perform better at the major league level than either Melky or Frenchy in 2012, but more than likely he would be outperformed by at least one or even both of them.
In 2011, all three outfielders have been better than average offensively and mostly injury free. Obviously in 2012 we might not be so lucky. Cain would be a nice insurance policy, a reasonably young, pretty good player who can step right in. Good teams have those, and good teams have good AAA players that there is not room for, it is we as Royals fans who are not used to it.
As far as the leadership angle goes, there may be something to that. When I was younger I was part of a baseball clubhouse (Obviously not at this level) and I have been a part of team oriented workplaces (Actually working with a team, not the corporate “team means grab your ankles” meaning) There is always one guy who keeps things loose, and if he is not around, things don’t run as smoothly, even if he is not the best performer, even if his replacement is better than he is. As fans, we can make fun of it-numbers is all we have-but it does not make it less true.
If this is a mistake, it is a minor one. Mostly a money mistake, and in the grand scheme of things a small one of those too. I am more worried about starting pitching and a new freaking pitching coach than this. The lineup we have now averages age 24, and the same lineup would still average only 26 when this contract ends, with not one starter over 30, and the very real possibility that 6 of the 9 guys will be much better players then they are now. Frenchy is not one of those 6, he is not going to be on the rise the next two years, but there are worse and more expensive right fielders on decent teams right now, and the short term free agent market is fraught with danger as well. Sometimes, it is better the devil you know.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
by KHAZAD on Aug 20, 2011 5:04 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Another very good comment.
My biggest problem is the extension now and money. He’s a guy that was basically a waiver pick up last year and signed here because of GMDM and guaranteed playing time that he wasn’t going to get anywhere else…and now he’s getting 13 million from the Royals. Just can’t believe that would have came from any other organization.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
I Hated The
Signing, and I hate the extension. No other MLB team wanted him, and two significant MLB franchises turned him out. I don’t care if he’s better than our immediately available options, he is not a good player on a good team. I want to be a good team, and Frogger’s acquisition is merely treading water at best. The extension is hoping for a miracle. He is what he is, and he isn’t good.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Usually you're a voice of reason, Phil
But I think That last sentence is wrong. You’re not saying he is what he is but that he IS NOT what he is. You’re arguing that he is what he has been in the past. Which you may be right.
For the record I voted “meh”. I think he would have been signed in the off-season by another team for multiple years (probably 2) and probably 5M per. I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance that Cain never has a season as good as Francoeur’s year this year given his reputation as a prospect and the failure rate of his level of prospect. And I think that Francouer can repeat this season at least once.
What I dislike the most about the signing is that it feels as though there’s an element of “making good” in the contract that rubs me the wrong way. I feel as though the Royals upped the contract in part to make up for the fact that he’s been significantly underpaid this season. That’s good for relationships but not so good for business.
by billexgordler on Aug 20, 2011 10:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He Will Play
Every game for the next two years, regardless of actual performance. I rest my case.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 22, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
And if the Royals were to limit his PT to increase his effectiveness, then they also aren’t getting as much value for 13.5 million.
Here’s my prediction (or rather, ‘mostly likely fear to be realized’): In 2012 Wil Myers finds his stroke, puts up monster AA, then AAA numbers, screaming for a call-up, and in the mean time Frenchy is at .233/278/395 at the break and can’t be traded for anything, but is given playing time anyway, because the contract must be justified and Jeff will ‘turn it around’.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Aug 22, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds About Right
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 22, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
The question I would posit to Francouer
is why should the fans or the organization have any confidence you’ll keep up your improved conditioning and willingness to adjust, now that you’ve gotten your latest payday?
Is he a changed person? Does the fact that he’ll be 29 when this contract expires give us enough reason to believe it will be in his own self interest to stay in shape? I think Francouer, with max effort, is probably worth exactly this contract. I don’t think he’s worth it if he quits listening to coaching and gets out of shape again.
Interesting, but I find it hard to believe his performance this season is about him suddenly giving max effort
Francoeur was awful in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Wasn’t he very motivated after 2008 and 2009 to get into the best shape of his life, work hard and give 110%? Was he suddenly motivated to work hard to turn it around after the 2010 season, but not the prior two? I don’t know that there’s good reason to believe his effort level this season was any different from any other season of his career.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 22, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he was more motivated
Losing 25 pounds or whatever this offseason. Improved range. He bought into the base-stealing philosophy after expressing doubt early in spring training.
He went from being assured a spot in RF to having one full-time offer that we are aware of. I think he had to sense him prospect status disappearing and, if he didn’t give it his all to turn things around, he could be out of baseball in a year or two.
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