Billy Butler Loves Hitting the Ball to Center Field

by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 12:29 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, I was driving and heard from the radio broadcast team that opposing teams' outfielders are really playing Billy Butler to hit the ball to center field and are giving him the lines. I decided to use batted ball data to see if there was any reason that teams are doing the shift.

To start with, I needed the average number of balls hit by RH hitters into various parts of the outfield. I divided the outfield in 5 equal zones, LF, LCF, CF, RCF, RF and looked at the percentage of line drives, fly balls and home runs hit into each zone. Here are the number for all MLB hitters from 2007 to 2011:

Year	LF	LCF	CF	RCF	RF
2007	18.3%	19.4%	26.5%	18.7%	17.0%
2008	18.9%	18.5%	26.6%	18.8%	17.2%
2009	18.3%	18.3%	27.1%	18.5%	17.8%
2010	17.8%	17.9%	27.6%	18.5%	18.3%
2011	16.7%	19.2%	27.5%	18.7%	17.9%

Now here are the percentages for Billy Butler:

Year	LF	LCF	CF	RCF	RF
2007	13.0%	13.0%	28.7%	26.1%	19.1%
2008	11.7%	17.2%	29.7%	20.7%	20.7%
2009	11.6%	19.0%	22.2%	26.4%	20.8%
2010	10.8%	19.6%	24.5%	21.1%	24.0%
2011	10.6%	22.3%	28.7%	22.3%	16.0%

Finally here are the percentage differences of the league averages subtracted from Billy's values:

Year	LF	LCF	CF	RCF	RF
2007	-5.3%	-6.3%	2.2%	7.4%	2.1%
2008	-7.2%	-1.3%	3.1%	1.9%	3.5%
2009	-6.7%	0.6%	-4.9%	7.9%	3.1%
2010	-7.0%	1.7%	-3.0%	2.6%	5.8%
2011	-6.1%	3.1%	1.3%	3.7%	-1.9%

First looking at just Butler's numbers, it can be seen that he has adjusted from previous seasons by putting the ball in center field more instead of going the opposite way. In previous seasons he hit to RF any where from 2.1% to 5.8% points more than the league average. This season he is hitting there 1.9% points less. The gain is distributed to the 3 CF positions (LCF, CF, RF) which he hits to about 8% points more than the league average.

Also, he never has hit to LF at any time in his career and that continues in 2011. He hits it there about 5% to 7% points less that the rest of the league. With Billy's blazing fast speed, if he even hits it into the corner, he has about 0% chance of getting a triple out of the hit.

Billy Butler is definitely hitting the ball more to the center part of the field compared to how he did in the past and compared to the rest of the league. It seems that some other teams have noticed. They are taking away the gaps in the center part of the field and giving him more room on the lines.

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Frenchy's data (it was asked for in the comments and since they don't handle tables at all, I will post it here):

Year	LF	LCF	CF	RCF	RF
2007	17.7%	23.4%	24.0%	17.2%	17.7%
2008	21.0%	21.5%	22.0%	17.7%	17.7%
2009	14.3%	20.1%	26.8%	20.5%	18.3%
2010	19.8%	15.1%	27.3%	20.9%	16.9%
2011	15.5%	22.7%	28.9%	16.5%	16.5%

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Comments

Nice hypothesis and test

"LaPorta and Hafner gave Boom Boom a beating
Just three weeks later he was back on the mound
He gave up six runs in five innings at Kaufmann
And the blogs all demanded he should be sent back down" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Aug 2, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions

Very interesting

2 questions tho:

Does this look at only fly balls and line drives? Billy smashes a lot of grounders between short and third for hits.

What do the league averages look like for right-handed hitters? When a RHH makes less than good contact, it tends to produce flies to right and grounders to short. If your data looks at flies from all hitters, I’d imagine that RHH’s will tend to produce more flies to right than average while LHH’s will tend to produce more flies to left than average because that’s where flies go when they miss.

by kcdc1 on Aug 2, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions

To start with, I needed the average number of balls hit by RH hitters into various parts of the outfield

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Aug 2, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoops

Totally read the article twice looking for that and missed it both times.

by kcdc1 on Aug 2, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I was looking only at OF positioning, so I removed ground balls.

These are the league RH numbers. RH actually spray the ball around more then LH hitters.

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Could Be Because

They face a lot more same-handed pitchers.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 2, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Now that my concerns above have been shown to be caused by reading impairment

GET BILLY TO HIT THE BALL IN THE AIR TO LEFT!!!

My god, he seems to get a double or a HR half the time the ball goes in the air toward the left side of the field. Swing earlier, Billy. Swing earlier.

by kcdc1 on Aug 2, 2011 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

Good Piece

Hitters used to be taught to try to hit the ball straight up the middle, the idea being that they seldom timed it that perfectly, so they would tend to hit the left-center and right-center gaps. If fooled by a fastball or pitch moving away, it still would go to right, if out ahead of a change or busted inside, they could pull it. Billy doesn’t seem to get fooled much and pitchers aren’t throwing inside to him.

by Jim Fetterolf on Aug 2, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

My problem with Billy and going to CF is that he has no speed.

I just hate seeing standing on 1B with a ball cut off deep in the gap, where just about anyone else would be on 2B. Also, it is amazing that he get absolutely no triples being a line drive hitter.

He might as well turn on the ball more and get a few more HRs.

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

HRs

for Billy are more a function of his swing angle. Lately he has had a little more of an uppercut, looks a little like Gordon’s on jackable pitches.

“He might as well turn on the ball more and get a few more HRs.”

I think that was the motivation for Ned Yost’s comment that he’ld rather have Billy a .270/25/120 guy. Billy seems to have listened, just based on his swing. Also read that he had become bottom hand, I think, dominant and that was causing him to hit the tops of balls instead of squaring them. Pitchers will adjust, Billy will adjust, and the game plays on.

by Jim Fetterolf on Aug 2, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Your triple slash seems a little weird.

25 and 120 don’t seem to fit the OBP and SLG scales. Probably just a typo.

by hawkinscm87 on Aug 2, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

He Does Inside-Out

A lot of pitches on the inner half, especially for a batter with his power. He gets good results a lot of the time, but I’d like to see him do more of this:
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_2622&type=hitter&sortm=h_team&sort=asc

Much Like Gordon, Butler hits mostly no-doubters.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 2, 2011 1:29 PM EDT reply actions

I've been wondering why a lot of his seeminlgy-sure gap doubles haven't fallen in.

This helps a lot.

by kansasjohn on Aug 2, 2011 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

Jeff, Do You

Have pitch locations for his HRs readily available?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 2, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

I can in a few minutes

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Real life getting into way

Will get later

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 2, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

this isn't real life?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 2, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Billy hits so many balls to center and right center is so that Frank can say

“That was a good bit of hitting there.” – he says it everytime someone goes either up the middle of opposite field. Money in the bank.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 2, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

But he also says something is "A good piece of hitting"

When someone lucks into a hit despite swinging at a pitch well out of the strike zone.

by OnixConcepcion on Aug 2, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to see the same info for a similar hitter,

say, George Brett. Great hitters (and I am NOT putting Billy in that category just yet) usually hit a lot of line drives from gap to gap. McRae and Brett were both this type. If they played today, people would bitch about them not hitting enough homers.

Billy knows how to hit. But he’ll probably never be what people want. I understand he has not hit well (for him) this season, I’m sure he would say the same. But in the long run, he will be just fine. He doesn’t need to change anything. He has good hitting fundamentals- exactly the way you would teach a young hitter. It’s why he’s rarely been overmatched since he came up. And it doesn’t go in massive slumps as often as pull hitter/ guess hitter-types.

by Rufus R. Jones on Aug 2, 2011 3:19 PM EDT reply actions

I only have the data from 2007 to 2011

Pick some one out and I will go with it.

How about Paul Konerko, another RH 1B from the division that is out hitting Billy even though he is 10 years older?

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

A

good comparison might be with Melky and Gordon, same ballpark, same year, similar results.

by Jim Fetterolf on Aug 2, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

It needs to be a same handed batter, not lefty and switch hitter.

Frenchy might be the best using your above requirements

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

that would be interesting

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 2, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I put Frenchy's numbers at the end of the article

The comments are horrible for tables

He is definitely a pull hitter compared to Butler, especially to LCF

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

huh, less of a discrepancy in 2011

/Seitzer’d

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 2, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

My main problem with any of the comps to Billy is that those players had some speed.

Billy has had 3 triples and as he stated, people fell down for him to get them.

Brett actually led the league in triples 3 times. At age 40, he had 3 in his final season.

Here are the players with comparable speed. How many of them of line drive/ gap hitters?

Paul Konerko
David Ortiz
Ryan Howard
Carlos Lee
Bengie Molina
Brian McCann
Todd Helton

Maybe Helton? McCann?

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 2, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

No offense, I just don't see your angle

with the speed concerns. It would be great if William had the speed to turn 15 doubles into triples. I’m just not that concerned with it, as long as he keeps his OBP high and hits 40-50 doubles/ year. Is he one of the top power guys in the league, as is? Most definitely not. Could he still be a 4-5-6 hitter in a great lineup? Absolutely.

One thing to remember is Butler has never had much in front or behind him. When surrounded by good hitters, he should be even better. And it looks like he may be for the better part of the next 3-4 years. A double looks a lot better with the bases juiced, compared to bases empty. A triple is only a little better.

by Rufus R. Jones on Aug 2, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions