Taking a Look at the Royal Bullpen - Doing OK in Tough Circumstances

by Freneau on Aug 31, 2011 9:30 AM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

Despite being burdened with the second highest innings total in the American League (yay horrible starters!), the Royal bullpen has held her ground this season, fighting to middle of the pack status in the American League.

		AL Rank
IP	434	2nd
ERA	3.67	7th
OPS	.710	8th
K/9	7.83	6th
K/BB	1.86	9th

Royal bullpens have typically been mediocre during the Dayton Moore Era, and I mean that in a positive sense. During the true bad old days of the early to mid 2000s, Royal 'pens were routinely very very bad. As you can see above and below, while the Royal relievers can get a strikeout, they can also issue a walk, which is becoming a lingering problem for many of our young arms.

Here are the individual totals:

Rk	Pos		Age	W	L	ERA	G ▾	IP	H	HR	BB	IBB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
1	RP	Blake Wood	25	5	1	3.43	47	57.2	50	5	25	5	52	116	1.301	7.8	0.8	3.9	8.1	2.08
2	RP	Tim Collins*	21	4	4	3.47	59	57.0	45	4	43	2	47	115	1.544	7.1	0.6	6.8	7.4	1.09
3	RP	Aaron Crow	24	3	3	2.38	50	56.2	45	6	29	2	58	168	1.306	7.1	1.0	4.6	9.2	2.00
4	CL	Joakim Soria	27	5	5	4.39	55	55.1	58	7	16	0	52	91	1.337	9.4	1.1	2.6	8.5	3.25
5	RP	Louis Coleman	25	1	4	2.75	42	52.1	37	7	22	6	53	145	1.127	6.4	1.2	3.8	9.1	2.41
6		Nathan Adcock	23	1	1	4.56	21	49.1	51	5	24	3	28	88	1.520	9.3	0.9	4.4	5.1	1.17
7		Greg Holland	25	3	1	1.82	36	49.1	30	3	15	1	59	219	0.912	5.5	0.5	2.7	10.8	3.93
8		Everett Teaford*	27	0	0	4.03	21	22.1	22	5	8	0	13	100	1.343	8.9	2.0	3.2	5.2	1.63
9		Jeremy Jeffress	23	1	1	4.70	14	15.1	12	1	11	0	13	87	1.500	7.0	0.6	6.5	7.6	1.18
10		Rob Tejeda	29	0	1	6.14	9	7.1	12	2	3	0	2	68	2.045	14.7	2.5	3.7	2.5	0.67
11		Kanekoa Texeira	25	0	0	2.84	6	6.1	13	0	3	1	0	148	2.526	18.5	0.0	4.3	0.0	0.00
12		Mitch Maier	29	0	0	0.00	1	1.0	1	0	0	0	0		1.000	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13		Jesse Chavez	27	0	0	18.00	1	1.0	3	0	1	0	0	31	4.000	27.0	0.0	9.0	0.0	0.00

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/31/2011.

Yost's bullpen management doesn't always look great during individual games, but from 30,000 feet, the season stats suggest he's done a decent job. Collins has pitched entirely too much, but overall, the best guys have been the ones pitching the most. Like many statheads, I'd like to see the Royals go with a smaller bullpen and a larger bench, but that is a fight for another day. The other trend you can see above is that although Yost initially showed some willingness to use his relievers for more than a mere inning, as the season has worn on that tendency has diminished.

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MITCH!

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Aug 31, 2011 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

had to leave him in

by Freneau on Aug 31, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

thank you

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 31, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree, it's nice to see Mitch's name in lights...

However, going into the season there was more than one article that expressed that the pitching would be the difficult part to watch this season. I would have to review all of Yost’s previous teams to tell whether this bullpen is out of proportion to his old pens. Or to the other teams this year for that matter.

I was not surprised that we have as large a pen as we do knowing the starting talent we had coming into the season.

Let’s not forget we had one A ball guy that had to be there riding the bench more or less all season on a rule 5 pick. (I hope Adding cock will work out)

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by kd_in_kc on Aug 31, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

looking at it from 30,000 feet does make it look really good

Hopefully we can credit the more recent control struggles of the bullpen to the wear and tear of a full major league season, and they can come back next year to be above average once again.

But, the bullpen is a fickle beast and we could very well see them just turn into horrible shit next year. Baseball!

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by Lum on Aug 31, 2011 9:54 AM EDT via iPhone app reply actions

A smaller bullpen is a great idea because relievers can and should pitch more

Limiting relievers to usually 75 ip or less is part of the dysfunctional evolution of the modern relief pitcher. Good relievers used to routinely pitch 100+ innings in a season. And studies show that RP’s don’t pitch worse with frequent use (See “The Book” by Tango, et al.). I wouldn’t jump a reliever from 60 to 120 innings in one season, but I’d certainly use the Royals best 4-5 RP’s more often and to some extent for longer outings, increasing their annuyal IP’s by a reasonable, safe amount.

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Would this take the form of more or longer appearances?

by KSinDC on Sep 1, 2011 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Certainly more appearances

And to a lesser extent longer appearances. But I’m not suggesting that relievers stay in the game long enough to face batters twice (at least not much more often than they are now). I guess what I’m talking about is that the better relievers on a team (those who usually pitch in the 7th, 8th and 9th inning) seem to usually pitch one inning and that’s all. I’m not sure why this should be. I’m all for maximizing platoon matchups, so if a reliever gets pulled for that reason, that makes sense. But if that is not the case, and a reliever comes in and pitchers very well in the 7th, why not leave him in the game in the 8th? Why does the designated “8th inning setup man” have to come in? For that matter, why does the 8th inning guy have to give way to the closer in the 9th? And why does the closer have to pitch the 9th inning, and not in the highest leverage situations. But I digress.

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by Scott McKinney on Sep 1, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Yost has done a decent job of management

It’s interesting to contrast the ERA performance of the relievers with their DiPS-type stats (which I definitely prefer over RA/ERA for relievers given the low samples we get with relievers). While Blake Wood has had a suprisingly decent season, the only reliever I’d say that has had an unambiguously good season in the majors has been Greg Holland.

Going forward, I’m not sure who will be the best (Holland wasn’t exactly awesome for most of his time in the minors), but Holland has both a great K rate and how walk rate so far, and even with his good luck on fly balls, his xFIP is still only 2.68.

Crow, on the other hand… well, his ERA is really good, he strikes out a lot of guys, and he’s dating Ke$ha. On the other hand, he doesn’t K enough guys to be awesome when he’s walking 4.55/9. It looks like he’s had very bad luck on flyballs (16.7 HR/FB rate), but some research indicates that ground ballers have higher HR/FB rates. The platoon issues are still there. In any case, a 3.37 xFIP, using the “easy” translation of 1 run, is a 4.37 xFIP (assuming that’s his “true talent”) as a starter, at least in this run environment, is a #4 starter.

Coleman started out really well and but has turned into a poor man’s (Ke$ha- and groundball- less) Aaron Crow.

Then there’s Soria, who’s probably better than his performance this season, but also isn’t going to be cheap after this season.

But hey, Tim Collins has totally made the Farnsworth and Ankiel contracts worth it, am I right?

The guys are young, which matters (even if not that much for pitchers), but it is still a mixed bag, overall.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

side note: FG or some other site needs to make it as easy to generate charts as B-R

by Freneau on Aug 31, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

tell me about it

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

So...you admit that HR/FB rates may differ a bit for different types of pitchers....

This is exactly the issue I brought up when I was discussion why I am not a fan of xFIP. Normalizing HR/FB rate for everyone is silly. It is clear there is SOME degree of skill (and SOME degree of luck) involved. How much luck and skill..I have no idea, but just normalizing it for everyone just does not make sense.

I know we’ve already discussed this plenty..so I am not going to get into another big long debate about it. Just saying my piece.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Aug 31, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I assume this is meant for me, not Will

Sure, I never completely denied that there is probably some talent to it. There is some talent involved probably just about every baseball skill.

The question is how much. Even Jesse Wolfersberger (spelling probably wrong) doesn’t think his HR/FB study “refutes” xFIP, at least not its predictive value relative to ERA/RA, FIP, and other stats.

It’s like BABIP for pitchers — yes, there might be a lot of variation during the season. But DiPS theory does no rely on the premise that every pitcher has the same BABIP all the time.

There are exceptions and outliers, but until you show that xFIP is less predictive than ERA and FIP for the majority of situations, it is better.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Who are candidates next year?

Jeremy Jeffress, Buddy Baumann perhaps?

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by RoyalsRetro on Aug 31, 2011 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

Edwin Carl NOW

by Freneau on Aug 31, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Herrera?

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Definitely possible.

I think we’ll see him this month for a potential tryout for next season.

by jsolo on Aug 31, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Is he on the 40-man?

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't think so

Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell

by Dr. van Strijcker on Aug 31, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

No, but Jesse Chavez can easily be excised

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by Old Man Duggan on Aug 31, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

That's what you think!

Dayton Moore might not be ready yet to give up on this future closer.

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

i think herrerra has to be protected after the season...

so, theres no reason not to do it in september unless they think that the 65 innings he’s thrown this year are enough…given his injury history, that might not be an awful thing

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Aug 31, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks Scott

I just threw up my lunch

by spamiam79 on Aug 31, 2011 12:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

thatd insinuate that he's ever going to be done with soria...seems unlikely...

gotta have his proven closer

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by billybeingbilly on Aug 31, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

one month more of him being a bargain!

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I know this was just a casual, joking comment, so my apologies for posting this here

It seems like many people have talked about how Soria is getting expensive starting next year and won’t be a good value anymore. It seems to me that unless he’s fallen off a cliff this season and won’t rebound, he’s still a pretty good value. Let’s say his TTL is 1.7 WAR, and assuming $5M/WAR this year and a salary inflation rate of 7.5%, these are the numbers I came up with for his value:

Year – Value – Actual contract
2012 – $9.1M – $6M
2013 – $9.8M – $8M
2014 – $10.5M – $8.75M
TOTAL – $29.4M – $22.75M

That’s not a tremendous bargain, but I’m happy with that kind of value. Now this doesn’t take into account that competent closers are actually pretty easy to find and that you probably shouldn’t spend many millions on them. Based on that, Soria isn’t a good value.

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

well, maybe I should have said

“remember when he had a lot of trade value?”

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Moore might be willing to trade him at the deadline in 2014

If the Royals are “unexpectedly” out of the playoff race.

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Jordan Schaefer will finally be ours!

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

although...

maybe I’m mellowing out, but if I’m feeling optimistic and squint hard enough, I can see the Royals contending in 2013.

My apologies to the Royals if this violates some sort of intellectual property law. I am assuming that private use of their proprietary FOSHE (Feeling Optimistic and Squint Hard Enough) projection system is okay. Let me know if I need to retain counsel.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh I agree

My 2014 Soria trade comment was pure anti-Moore-snark. I think the Royals will improve in 2012 and could contend in 2013. But this is going to take Moore actually improving the team by acquiring some outside talent. There lies the rub.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 1, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah...he'll probably earn his contract...

and its very helpful that they’re all team options…but he really wont be a bargain per se….he’ll likely earn right about what he’s being paid

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Aug 31, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeffress has walked more than 6 per 9 in both AA and AAA

he’ll fit right in

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe he just needs to pitch downhill more

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

he needs to avoid stepping in holes

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 31, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Chapman another possibility

LHP.

by jsolo on Aug 31, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

how many of the guys in our bullpen will be free agents next year? any?

I guess I’m asking will we have any trouble signing anyone in there?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 31, 2011 11:33 AM EDT reply actions

They are all under team control for several more years

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by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks, that is good news

not that we need to keep them all, but we don’t have to worry about losing someone we want to keep.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 31, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I have nothing to add

Other than to wonder what the hell happened to Crow? In its way, that seems more mysterious than the Soria mystery. Crow was good. Now he’s not. Is it just a matter of the league getting a look at him and figuring out his stuff?

by LaFLamme on Aug 31, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

Could be he wasn't that good to begin with?

The league is littered with reliever who were good for 30-40 inning stretches, then sucked the rest of their careers.

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by RoyalsRetro on Aug 31, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Aaron Crow hasn't pitched in a win since July 25th

granted, in the 10 games he’s entered since July 25th, 7 of them were tie games or the Royals were ahead, and Crow blew 2 saves and lost 2 games.

Fun fact. It’s been 36 days since Aaron Crow pitched in a game we won.

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by BHWick on Aug 31, 2011 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

36 games. That feels about right.

Maybe he shouldn’t have accepted the ride to the All-Star game from Verlander.

by LaFLamme on Aug 31, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

so we know who to blame

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 31, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Using a smaller bullpen is only going to exacerbate the problem we’re seeing come home to roost — we have six rookies in our bullpen who all probably need to be shut down for the year. We’re using guys way too much, not just Tim Collins but most of the pen. I’d like to have a deeper bench too, but not if it means putting more work on guys like Collins and Crow who are overworked as it is. Maybe if we call up the veterans in AAA to eat those innings (Miner, Suppan, Chavez, etc.) and shut down Crow and Collins for sure and possibly Holland and Coleman as well, I’d be OK with it.

by seelztlb on Aug 31, 2011 11:17 PM EDT reply actions