Billy Butler sucks, I read it on the internetz

is even sillier than picking all these benchmarks and pretending like it actually means he’s in the same class as Pujols, Cabrera, or Gonzalez.

That Michael Young is on that list is all you need to know about what an “elite” group it is.

Butler has some upside, but the idea that he’s already been an “elite” hitter is hilarious.

Here is a list of the top 35 qualified hitters since 2009, sorted by wOBA, which is a rate stat version of linear weights (which properly weights the value of each event). Butler is tied for 33rd (or 34th, depending on how you take your ties) with Matt Kemp. If you sort by the park-and-season adjusted version, wRC+ Butler is… not on the first page, actually. He’s on the second page at #37. There are 140 batters on the list.

This isn’t to say that Butler hasn’t been good. He has been. And have done what he did at ages 23, 24, and 25 bodes well for the near future. I don’t hate Billy Butler and don’t care whether he hits home runs or not. If he turns into a +40 hitter, I don’t care if he’s with tons of singles and doubles or lots of home runs and walks. Whatever. That’s dumb.

But while being in the top third of hitters over that last three years is cool, given that he has not other skills it certainly doesn’t make him an elite player during that period. I’m not even sure being #35 makes him an elite hitter. Nick Swisher is a good player and a good hitter, but I wouldn’t call him at “elite hitter.” Well, he’s hit better that Butler since 2009. Same thing for Ben Zobrist. Or Matt Kemp. Let’s not go crazy.

There have to be other people out there who make up a reasonable third group who realize that Butler doesn’t have to either be a power-less and thus crappy player or he’s got 3l33t3 skills, he’s just a good hitter, right? The world hasn’t gone insane, has it? Over Billy Butler?

It’s possible he improves to elite, but not likely. It would be a major shock if he didn’t remain very good for the next 6-7 seasons, at least. I think at the end of his career he’s going to be the type of player who you look back at his numbers and say “wow, that guy was really, really good for a long time.” I could easily see him having a 15 year career of nothing but solid offensive production.

that makes me want to tear me hair out by its roots….Prob should read the latest Judgin the Royals for context, and the usual dig at Gia for fucking up a routine play (rightfully so, but how about a little context)…anywhoo….

“But Roger, the blogistas consider it a slump because his sacred OBP, his on-base percentage, has dropped. I think that it has because he is batting 3rd, ahead of the formidable Hosmer, rather than 5th ahead of less dangerous bats. I also think that Billy is now hot-snot and I appreciate the job that he is doing. He finally has some help and I think he’s starting to enjoy that.”

As has been said many times, its the willful ignorance of understanding “stats” that pisses me off. OBP should be sacred. Lee Judge bends himself into bavarian pretzels trying to untangle some salty aspects of the game that go unseen by the average fan. I think thats all well and good. But, alas, would that someone with a more nuanced perspective would take a similar approach to debunking conventional wisdom as it relates to stats. Long live WAR, death to the RBI.

Would some of you well versed in stat analysis care to comment on the idea that batting order has any meaurable effect on hitting? Does Hosmer circa 2011 come anywhere close to formidable?

its damn ugly to watch those IDP’s all year… (not as many this yr)