The Royals are 11 games behind the Tigers

9 games left against Detroit, and 51 games left total. Long odds, but it's the closest the Royals have been to the playoffs in August in a long time.

Hell, put the 2007 Rockies in this spot and they'd win the division by 15 games.

10 months ago kcdc1 14 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

We are 15 games under .500. For us to have any shot, slim as it may be we need to get really hot, because even if we sweep all 9 against Detroit we still have 3 other teams to pass. The odds are slim to none but to even have a shot we have to clean house against the other central teams.

by craig102m on Aug 5, 2011 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, we'd basically have to sweep the remaining series against the Tigers and Indians

by kcdc1 on Aug 5, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Just saying

I plugged in some very generous stats for everyone to get a win%, and then plugged that Everything Goes Perfectly win% into a binomial calculator, and it spit out that there’s a 4% chance that the Royals make it to 85 wins. So there you go.

Simply multiply the odds of everything going perfectly by 4% by the chance that no one else in the Central makes it to 85 wins and you get the Royals playoff odds. In case you don’t want to do the math, I’ll help you out. It’s non-zero. But not by much.

by kcdc1 on Aug 5, 2011 4:19 PM EDT reply actions