Is Alex Gordon a BABIP mirage?

by Bart41 on Aug 9, 2011 8:19 AM EDT

I was doing my semi-regular checkup on Alex Gordon's climb up the fangraphs WAR rankings this morning and noticed he's carrying a .361 BABIP. We all know he's been a revelation this season but is this all just a mirage soon to fade into Bob Hamelin/Angel Berroa-esque memories?

I'm not a sick baseball math guy like some of the guys on here, but I did some calculations here. Alex has 137 hits on the season while sporting a .361 BABIP (specifically 137 hits on 380 balls in play). His line drive % per Fangraphs is 21.2%. The average BABIP of every hitter within .5% of him (from 20.7% - 21.7%) is .313. Using this "normalized" BABIP, I ran Alex's numbers again, and his average is down to a "disappointing" .263 (specifically 119 hits on 380 balls in play). Maybe my numbers are off somehow, I think they're pretty solid. I just don't see how we can expect anything close to this performance going forward. Maybe we don't, but I don't hear many people talking about Gordon and regression. especially to a sub-.270 level.

On the positive side, there are hitters that "sustain" a ridiculously high BABIP over many seasons. Jeter, Votto, and Ichiro all have career BABIPs over .350. Rod Carew sustained a .359 BABIP over almost 2500 games. I doubt many of us see the Dominator as being one of "those guys," but the question is, can he be a guy that maintains a .330 BABIP like Michael Young or Rusty Greer? If so, he'll be hitting around .280 a year with 15-20 HRs. If not, we're probably looking at .260 a season with 10-15 HRs and, seemingly, a 2011 mirage.

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Here is Gordons BABIP and xBABIP over the years

Year BABIP xBABIP
2007 0.303 0.304
2008 0.309 0.311
2009 0.279 0.292
2010 0.254 0.322
2011 0.368 0.335

xBABIP formula

Looks like Alex was a little unlucky on batted balls last year and lucky this year. He looks to be around a .310 to .330 BABIP player.

Another note is that his HR/FB % is pretty consistent over the years:

2007 8.5%
2008 8.9%
2009 12.0%
2010 11.3%
2011 10.4%

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 9, 2011 9:13 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

so...

on average, he’s a .270 to .280 hitter on average with 20 HRs? best guess?

by Bart41 on Aug 9, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

That is what I would say.

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 9, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

so he's raul ibanez?

only maturing at 27 instead of 30? 2.5-3.5 WAR per season

by Bart41 on Aug 9, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

He Could Muscle

Up for 25-30 HRs for a year or two, but yeah.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Your method isn't quite right

BABIP doesn’t include HR’s. HR’s are considered hits on balls out of play, so first you need to take them out of his season numbers to figure out how many balls in play they counted. Then you can change the BABIP to find hits on balls in play, and then you add HR’s back in.

If you do it that way, a .313 BABIP gives you a .270 batting average. I don’t see any reason to discount his power this season. Like Jeff said, his HR/FB% this year is consistent with his career numbers. So if you want to give him a .313 BABIP with all of his other numbers the same, you get a .270 hitter with ~20 HR’s.

Lastly, I wouldn’t put too much faith in the idea that LD%, GB%, and FB% are the only things that governs BABIP. Certain batters just make hard contact more consistently. Maybe their flies are a little lower and their grounders are one-hoppers a little more often, so they turn in to hits a bit more. I wouldn’t count on Gordon having a .361 BABIP next year, but I wouldn’t rule out .330+ either.

by kcdc1 on Aug 9, 2011 9:25 AM EDT reply actions

thanks

I was just shooting from the hip on this, hoping to get in generally the right direction.

by Bart41 on Aug 9, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

its not a mirage

but it’s part of it

by Freneau on Aug 9, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

I think Gordon shows a good ability

To drive his hits at holes. He does appear to be a little lucky BABIP wise, but when I consider his season, and consider how many of his 3625 broken bats hits would have been base hit drives or homers, I can’t help but feel like his luck has been balanced out quite a bit. Reviewing his season in my head, it seems like he had a very hot, BABIP aided start to the year, followed by a small slump, and now he is hitting very well without luck helping him so much.

by Prime2U on Aug 9, 2011 11:47 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I've always assumed that these guys don't pay out of pocket for anything equipment wise,

but does anyone know what bats Alex uses and who pays for them? That’s got to be getting expensive…

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Aug 9, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think they are a new brand, Balsa-Bat.

by kansasjohn on Aug 9, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Hitting The Ball

Hard is the best strategy. He’s doing that now. I was about 7 years old when I figured this out.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

You mean you should spend hours practicing bunting like my neighbor is with his kid.

“But he can get on base”

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 9, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I Can't Remember

Bunting in a game, but I practiced it. Alex is going with the pitch very effectively this season. Never miss a chance to turn on a pitch, but just hit it hard wherever you hit it. Alex has XBH and HR power anywhere, and the same goes for Butler and Hosmer.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'd like to see a side-by-side of his spray charts from 2010 and 2011

It seems like before this year, he wanted to pull everything. This year it seems like he’s spreading the ball around much more.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Aug 9, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

And Doing So

Effectively.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

nice post

rec

by John64 on Aug 9, 2011 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

This is probably his career year

But he’s still young enough to have upside. As he gets older he might develop more power. I don’t have any way of knowing, of course, but I bet Alex is a solid 3-4 WAR starter for the next five years, with an OPS over 800 and above-average to average defense and baserunning. Then he’ll start his decline at about 32-33. You could win a division title if this guy were your left fielder.

"When asked who was responsible for his going down in flames
He pointed to the offices and said 'You all know their names'
So hurry home early, hurry, let's go
Boom Boom Mazzaro's facing Robby Canó" --Not Warren Zevon

by Juancho on Aug 10, 2011 5:23 AM EDT reply actions