You can have a terrific night at the plate and not get any hits, but if you’re a good defender, you’re a good defender almost every night.
Is this true?
9 months ago
Warden11
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I certainly agree with the first part...
I love it when one of our guys stands up there and fouls off 10 pitches before striking out. Walks are cool, and I’m down with sacrifice flies, though sac bunts can go kick rocks.I think everyone here is beyond using hits as a strong measure of a batter’s value.
I’m also inclined to believe the second part though, but it’s most likely due to the selection bias of remembering the web gems and forgetting the errors, or more likely than that, the non-error missed opportunities like the seemingly dozens of botched double plays Mistake-free Getz has cost us this year. The truly great defenders are great because they make the routine plays and the spectacular ones, as opposed to guys like Yuni who are good for at least one facepalm worthy play every game but will randomly pull a ridiculous web gem out of their ass every once in a while.
by Soria's Unibrow on Sep 11, 2011 9:40 AM EDT reply actions
I feel it's worth mentioning
That I was going to name names in the “truly great defenders” section of that post, and Torii Hunter was going to be one of them. Just to be safe, I went and looked at his fielding stats on Fangraphs. I’m glad I checked. He’s been worth negative defensive WAR 7 of the 14 years he’s been in the majors. But I have a perception of him being great because of all those home run robbing catches of his that I remember.
It doesn’t help that he’s probably generated like 10 of his 36 career WAR against the Royals alone. That dude has made a career of killing KC.
by Soria's Unibrow on Sep 11, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd say it makes sense
Don’t forget that failure 7 out of 10 times is an excellent record for a hitter. But even the worst defenders at the most demanding positions properly handle 85% of their fielding chances, and at less demanding ones, 95%.
Even the most skilled hitter will have his 0-fer nights, it’s the nature of the job. By contrast, a good defender will be defending well all the time.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Sep 11, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yes, but fielding chances are about the same as at bats.
Very small sample size in one game, and thus a large variance from game to game.
Go Royals!
Except that
There can be a large variance when the expected likelihood of success is 25-30%; there’s less variance possible when the expected likelihood of success if 90% or higher.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
No, its more.
Almost everytime a fielder misplays one play, it will show up as an outlier. Can’t get much more variance then that.
Go Royals!
What I meant is that you can't vary very much
and maintain a good, or even acceptable fielding percentage. You can vary plenty while still being a good hitter.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
You can be the best defender in major league baseball
and that can have absolutely no effect in any particular game. You need the ball hit to you in order to have a positive effect and I’m sure there’s been a handful of games that guys like Alex Gordon didn’t make a single defensive play and I consider him a good defensive player. I like it when the ball is hit into left as opposed to right.
I’ve been trying to read up on the defensive metrics with the idea of putting together a post/essay on them but the more I read the more confused I get about it. Are the metrics actually getting it right? Are great defensive players worth more to their teams that the equitable offensive version?
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Are great defensive players worth more to their teams that the equitable offensive version?
I’d say the Seattle Mariners Experience suggests no.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 12, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Or Jeff Francoeur!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 12, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
A player can have good and bad games and plays/plate appearances from game to game on both sides of the ball
I doubt that “true talent” for hitting varies more from game-to-game than it does for fieldling. If Alcides Escobar has a great play one night and a error the next, he’s still the same (good) defender both nights, just with varying performances.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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How could true talent vary game to game?
Do I misunderstand the concept? I thought true talent was the performance level to which your actual performance regresses over time. As such, it would be relatively fixed. I guess it’s possible for a player to make a mechanical change (Hochevar) or get hurt and have their true talent level change from one game to the next, but absent that sort of extrernal input, wouldn’t true talent be the same every game?
As for actual performance, it seems to me that cmkeller is right. Since the average defensive numbers are so much closer to the boundary (5 to 10 percent away from 100) than average hitting numbers (30 percent away from 0), there can’t be nearly as much variance in the actual defensive performance as in actual hitting performance.
Along this line, I think the problem is that the two statements aren't really comparable
A says you had a good performance (during a specific game), yet didn’t get a hit (a statistical measure). B says you are generally a good defender (no mention about a specific game), so you are a good defender every game (no mention of a stat).
A comparable B statement would be “You can do everything right in the field all game, but not get any putouts”.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 12, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen great defenders have
horrible nights/days when they misjudge two fly balls and can’t get to a GB because they took a false step on contact… or just read bat angle wrong. It happens.
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