Kansas City Royals 2012 Draft Position in Flux

2 as a couple, a few as three-four, and then beyond that it’s several

Here’s an incredibly wild hypothetical to illustrate: Next year, lets say the Royals have $30MM designated for FAs and $15MM for the draft. However, hypothetically, there is one $35MM player (call him CC Sabathia if you want this to be less hypothetical) that will be the difference between the Royals making the World Series or the Royals finishing in 4th place. Alternatively, we could sign any other player or combination of players for $30MM, but none of them will improve the club past 3rd place. So, in this admittedly unrealistic case, shouldn’t the Royals dip into $5MM of the draft money to get the player that gets them to the World series? Hypothetically, isn’t spending $5MM less on the draft worth it, if it means we get the FA to get us to the World Series in 2012?

To expand (at length) on my earlier posts, I’m thinking of this from a theoretical/economic perspective, and looking at the opportunity costs of prospects vs. free agents. My basic assumption is that signing prospects is a better investment but you won’t see the pay-off until 3-5 years later. FAs are a worse investment, but you see the pay-off immediately. IF our goal is “making the playoffs”, then, when we don’t have a chance to make the playoffs, the opportunity cost of spending money on FAs is very high, because every dollar we spend on FAs is a dollar we can’t spend on prospects and because the difference between 70 wins and 75 wins is relatively inconsequential. Conversely, when we do have a chance of making the playoffs, we see that the opportunity cost of spending on prospects increases, because every dollar we spend on prospects is a dollar we can’t spend on FAs who might be the very consequential difference between a .500 season and a .550 season.

In other words, should the Royals try to combine the returns from the 2006 -2011 drafts (i.e. the current wave of prospects) with the returns from a wave of FA signing to get to the playoffs?

Disclaimers: I realize that WAR $ values suggest that we need at least $25MM – $35MM to get the players we need for 8 more victories, but I’m looking at this more hypothetically. I would also hope that Glass doesn’t have a specific ceiling on $, and that he’d be willing to go over-budget on FA $, without having to deduct from the draft $, if the right opportunity presented itself.