2011 Royals position player career WAR/150 games (min 300 career MLB games)

Alex Gordon - 3.0
Mike Aviles - 2.5
Jeff Francoeur - 1.6
Billy Butler - 1.4
Alcides Escobar - 1.4

8 months ago Scott McKinney 15 comments 0 recs |

Comments

Complete list

Gordon 3.0
Aviles 2.5
Frenchy 1.6
Butler 1.4
Escobar 1.4
Melky 1.0
Getz 0.8
Treanor 0.7
Betemit 0.6
Maier 0.3
Pena 0.3

Thank god they got rid of that worthless piece of crap Aviles. I’m glad we’ve got second base locked down for the next several years.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 18, 2011 1:42 AM EDT reply actions

A lot of these are really surprising

I’ve been defending Frenchy all year, but even I am surprised to see him ahead of Billy.

Gordon, Aviles and Billy are all getting help from position adjustments at positions they no longer play, so maybe they should be adjusted down a bit if we’re thinking about what people will do going forward, but still, this is not the order I would have expected.

by KSinDC on Sep 18, 2011 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Just re-reading a comment of yours from a discussion of Aviles in March

In some ways it seems very prescient. In some ways, it seem counter to what you’re implying here.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/3/4/2030001/rany-part-2-on-the-minors#60834491

I want to make clear that I’m not saying that the stats show that Aviles definitely doesn’t have star potential. I’m just giving my own personal opinion based on the available evidence. I could be way wrong. But here are the reasons I don’t think he legitimately has star potential for the Royals possibly contending future:

1. There’s a decent chance that Moore and Yost won’t let Aviles be a starter long-term. Hell we don’t even know if they’ll have him be an everyday regular for all of 2011. And if you are a utility player or are sharing a position with another player, it’s nearly impossible to put up star-level WAR.

2. Even if he is a full-time regular long-term, it almost certainly won’t be at SS. And if he’s not at SS, he won’t get that position’s high positional adjustment.

3. His 4.0 fWAR season was in part due to what I believe is likely an aberrational UZR spike. I may be wrong, but I think he’s a decent defensive middle IFer, but not a great one. FWIW, his UZR at 2B has been below average. But that is in a small sample size. I think it will go up but not to enough to help make him a star.

4. I also don’t think he’s a .360 wOBA hitter going forward.

5. Aviles turns 30 this year. So, he’s likely at least a ffew years past his peak already. For the Royals possibly contending future (2013 and beyond), Aviles is going to be 32+. His hitting may very well tail off. Based on typical aging curve data, his defense very likely will.

As for Cain, when a guy wasn’t a star in the minors, I see very, very little chance that he’ll be a star in the majors. Both could surprise me. I sure hope Moore and Yost give both of them the full-time chance they deserve.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 6, 2011 10:42 PM EST

by KSinDC on Sep 18, 2011 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you are overestimating what you think I was implying.

I don’t think that career WAR/150 = a player’s true talent level. I think it is interesting information, but assessing true talent level requires considerably deeper analysis. I don’t think Aviles is likely to be a 2.5 WAR player going forward. And I don’t believe he has star potential now any more than I did on March 6. But I do think he could be a 2ish WAR player if used as a starter for a full season. He performed at that level as recently as last year.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 18, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it was the question of the steepness of the decline that I thought you might have changed on

by KSinDC on Sep 18, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Aviles WAR/150 after 2008

0.7

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 18, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

As long as we're ignoring data

Aviles WAR/150 after 2009
1.6

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 18, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

so, he COULD be marginally better than getz?

yay

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 18, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

No, he's likely considerably better than Getz

Yay

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 18, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

getz was on pace for like 1.2 or 1.3 WAR

and had a similar season 2 seasons ago. you’re not doing actual analysis right now…you’re pulling a rany in the other direction

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 18, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's look at a reasonable sample size for Getz

He’s only played 306 MLB games, and you’re hanging your hat on a couple smaller chunks of that data. When he has that little data, you should look at the largest sample you have.

306 career MLB games
1.7 career fWAR
0.8 career WAR/150

Are you arguing that Getz has been improving over his short MLB career? His offense certainly hasn’t.

2008 .217 wOBA
2009 .312
2010 .276
2011 .278

What am I mising? Pickoffs?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 18, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

im looking at 840 of his almost 1100 plate appearances….im not really arguing anything other than the fact that aviles projects to be significantly better than getz….and im using your exact words

But I do think he could be a 2ish WAR player if used as a starter for a full season.

that 2 1/2 year age difference matters as well…i think getz projects to be better than aviles for the next couple of years

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 18, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

im looking at 840 of his almost 1100 plate appearances

Why ignore those other plate appearances? Does ignoring them and looking at a smaller sample of data give us a more accurate picture of his talent level? I don’t think so. If so, can I take out 250ish PA’s of data that is bad for Aviles? But that wouldn’t make for a more accurate picture of his talent either.

Yes, those were my words. I think Aviles has a decent shot of being a 2 WAR player if used as a full-time regular. I don’t think Getz has much of a shot of putting up numbers anywhere near that. I think their stats back that up. Now certainly reasonable people can disagree, but I don’t think it’s fair to say that I’m “pulling a Rany”. This is my honest, straightforward analysis. Now I may be wrong, but I think the analysis is sound and the intent is honest, objective analysis. For Rany, I don’t think that’s the case.

If Getz had much of any talent, those 2 1/2 years mike make a difference, but I think he’s shown he has very little. He’s just not a major league hitter. And while the defense is pretty is pretty good, it’s not great, and the total package is a pretty crappy major league baseball player. Aviles has shown that he has considerably more talent than Getz. I also think it is meaningful that one of the best FO’s in baseball wanted him for their team when they are in a pennant race, even in a season in which he’d put up poor numbers so far. They see the talent.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 18, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions

those ABs arent irrelevant for sure...

look at their numbers for the past 3 years…getz has been significantly better and is 2 1/2 years younger thus less likely to fall off even more. if you’re looking for a utility guy, i’d probably go with Aviles…but if you’re looking for a starting 2b, i dont see a reasonable way you choose aviles over getz…better this year…better over the past 3 years and siginificantly younger

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 18, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions