Eric Hosmer Vaults Back Into Rookie of the Year Discussion
by Freneau on Sep 21, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintFire up the Rookie of the Year campaign. Here comes Eric Hosmer.
A scorching September has, or rather, should, put Hosmer back in the ROY discussion, especially among the position player candidates. As the season plays out and baseball writers across the country look for something to write about, Hosmer is likely to emerge as good copy, especially if the Royals continue to play well in the season's dying days. Heck, Buster Olney already has done so.
On August 30, Hosmer had a season line of .274/.324/.424, which was good for his low OPS point of the season at .747. That performance was ok, and given Hosmer's pedigree and youth, not bad. Not thrilling either, but hey, he's young. On September 22nd, the first baseman wakes up with a .300/.343/.474 line.
Hosmer improved his season line that much, that quickly, thanks to an insane 85 PAs. Since August 30, The Hos has hit 432/.447/.728, padding his traditional stats totals with 6 home runs. And of course, he went 5-5 last night, pushing everything up just that little extra bit.
Here are the wOBA leaders among AL rookies:
- Lawrie: .414 (171 PAs)
- Jennings: .389 (245 PAs)
- Carp: .361 (280 PAs)
- Hosmer: .351 (533 PAs)
- Ackley: .348 (342 PAs)
Hosmer has played much more than any of his peers and I think that matters. It matters from a value standpoint and from a perception one as well. The advanced stats hate his defense and positionally he loses value as well, but I don't know if that's enough to make up the difference. Especially since the scouts think he's actually good at first (right?). Ackley ackually leads AL Rookie hitters in WAR at 2.7, but I don't get the sense that he's a viable candidate. He's already right in line for the Chase Utley Being Overlooked Career Path.
That leaves Trumbo. The Angel hasn't actually been that good, which is why despite 29 HRs he has just a .334 wOBA. Trumbo's .258 BA will hurt him amongst traditional voters and his .297 OBP should kill him with anyone more advanced. He's an older guy who has played a full season and has 29 HRs.
Unlike Mike Aviles's insurgent candidacy in 2008, Hosmer is a very traditional candidate. He was famous before he made his debut, he's an established regular already, he plays first base and he's (at this point) basically an all offense player. Voting for Mike Aviles was more or less a "hey, this is random but he was really good" vote, wheras Hosmer stands out as a coronation option, he's the face of a young team that industry wonks want to get on record as validating.
The primary competition for these position players will be Michael Pineda, who recieved a tremendous amont of hype in April and May. The Pineda buzz has fallen off quite a bit, and his 9-10 record for a bad team doesn't help. Pineda, from a straight WAR perspective probably should win AL ROY, as no one is really close to his 3.3 WAR. Hosmer certainly isn't.
However, there is increasing reason to vote for Hosmer for the soft factors listed above. And honestly, if you look past (whether justified or not) his horrible UZR numbers, he's a strong candidate performance-wise. Rookie of the Year is something of a silly award and it seems to primarily be one in April and September. Pineda won April, Hosmer is winning September.
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Does Nova qualify?
16 wins is going to be hard for a lot of people to overlook, I think.
I expect Hellickson (decent season, 13 wins) and Jordan Walden (saves) to get lots of votes too.
He is eligible
But I think voters are savvier now and will give Hellickson the nod over Nova.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 21, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
uhh...does savvier=dumber?
nova has been better than hellickson this year even if you completely toss out the wins
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I would be fearful of Walden more I think...
there’s major recent precedent to give it to a closer
just haven’t heard much on Nova and Hellickson, other than from the prospect obsessives wrt to the latter
the yankees are like the least talked about 100 win team ever
They have to go 7-2 to get there
I’m fairly surprised Nova isn’t getting more hype for RoY just on the basis of being a Yankee and “saving the starting rotation”.
I’ve definitely seen some writers say things like “Hellickson will almost surely win ROY”… which is a ridiculous thing to say at this point, but it’s out there.
I've seen a lot of buzz for Nova
But its been more like “great season, but wins aren’t everything and Hellickson/Pineda is better and OMG WALDEN HAS LIKE SO MANY SAVES!”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
ESPN is pushing him in their awards chats
the fans voted there……
Hellickson-30%
Hosmer-19%
Nova-38%
Trumbo-14%
Where will Hosmer go in fantasy drafts next spring?
Fantasy players will probably expect something like:
.300 BA, 100 RBI, 90 Runs, 25 HR and 15 SB’s.
And as a 22 year old that’s done nothing but rake, he has huge upside appeal. As a 1B, does that make him Top 30?
I'd say it's close. Certainly top 50.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I would look for him as earliest as the 3 round if I didn't have a 1b and as late as the 5th...
so that would be 25th-60th range, strictly IMO
I like those SB’s from a 1B
what is his ceiling? .330, 110RBI, 95 Runs, 35 HR? plus extra rooting interest…I might pull the trigger in the late 2nd round
I am the one who knocks.
by PhattStairs on Sep 21, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Typo
" On September 22nd, the first baseman wakes up with a .300/.343/.728 line."
I know he’s on a year, but I don’t think he’s managed to increase his SLG% by .300 points!
There's a typo in the title too
Should be “Vaults”
While we're at it...maybe this one was intentional:
Ackley ackually
Somewhat poetic either way.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Typos happen. I don’t only note them to help out if I’m one of the earlier comments.
And speaking of typos, will SBN ever allow us to edit typos from our comments?
my guess is that editing comments would somehow be spam-friendly
not sure how, precisely, but that’s my guess
For me, the bigger problem is that you can remove "evidence"
I think it’s important that what people comment is on record. Comments already go a bit over the top – what happens if the accountability is totally removed?
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I was hoping that ackually was intentional
Maybe it was subliminal, stemming form all of the “adorkable” New Girl ads.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
QUIT YOUR COMPLAINING!!! KEEP RUNNING THIS SITE FOR US!!!!!
"Shot by my own men."
by StonewallPDS on Sep 21, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
ive said nothing negative....
its a good article that doesnt go out of its way to find a way to bash moore or francoeur for no reason…hopefully they’re getting good so there’ll be no reason to have to resort to mocking francoeur’s smile or the media’s coverage of him while ignoring his good season
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
what about Perez?
Is he not awesome too?
Rookie of the Month at least?
I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?
by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Sep 21, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions
ESPN just did a pointless chat on this
Hosmer got a lot of love; one of the emcees suggested that he’d be more viable if the Royals had called him up a month earlier.
I, for one, am very excited about Hosmer possibly winning this award...
as it clearly portends great, sustained success in the future.
don’t forget The Hammer.
and the other royal roys. except for Ape and Belty.
"Gently thinking backwards on the psychedelic promises God made to me in the dark."
- David Berman
Ape never won it
Lou Piniella, Bob Hamelin, Carlos Beltran, Angel Berroa. The list of immortals.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
jim bowden says hosmer doesnt have enough games or PAs to be considered
he’s employed for what reason?
Bowden doesn't have enough brain cells
to be considered for anything.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Sep 21, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
bowden dont play that
he says maybe if the royals would’ve brought him up a month earlier he’d listen, thats how bowden is rolling
yeah but is Ryan Howard hot?
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by Lum on Sep 21, 2011 2:14 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions 1 recs
Ryan Braun
Only had 492 PA when he stole the NL ROY from Tulo
Why is Paulino pitching on three days rest?
Lets get the Blaine Train a rollin
by tiquanunderwear on Sep 21, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
so what you are saying is that Eric Hosmer = Wonder Bra?
he went 5-5 last night, pushing everything up just that little extra bit.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Sep 21, 2011 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
lol and rec
2010 = The beginning of a dynasty
by ChiefWildcat on Sep 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I was surprised...
to see how similar Freddie Freeman is to Hosmer. Both are lefties, 21, and of similar physical stature (Hosmer is listed at 6’4"240, and Freeman at 6’5", 225). They have identical wOBA’s of .351 and are close on OPS+ at 124 to 118. Freeman is better than I thought.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
It's hard to believe two years ago
that Hos was scuffling in A ball! I can’t think of a quicker turnaround for a Royals prospect?
When was Hosmer not in the ROY discussion
Hellickson has been a much better than Nova or Pineda. I had Hosmer as #2 behind only Hellickson as of last week, now, I’m not so sure. “The advanced stats hate his defense” = how absurd is that, sheesh.
As much as it pains me to say good about a Yankee, Nova has been better than Hellickson
Hellickson is outperforming his FIP and xFIP like hes Jair Jurrjens or something
uhhh...yeah...i dont get this hellickson has been better nonsense...
its an anti-yankee bias
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair,
they’ve both been pedestrian. Nova is sporting a 5.38 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9 while Hellickson is sitting at 5.78 K/9 and a 3.22 BB/9. Hellickson has the edge there.
Also, while DIPS show that Hellickson has been luckier than Nova, his ERA is still lower. While he’ll likely regress next year, that doesn’t mean that his ERA thus far didn’t happen. As long as ERA is going to be a means by which pitchers’ performances are measured for awards, Hellickson gets the edge over Nova on that count (and on the K/9).
Again, neither have been better than Pineda, who has outperformed them by every measure except for Wins and ERA (only behind Hellickson).
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 21, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Really
Hellickson – Nova
ERA – 2.91 – 3.62
IP – 176 – 159
OB – .212 – .255
WHIP – 1.14 – 1.33
OBP – .284 – .321
SLG – .371 – .381
OPS – .655 – .702
Nova isn’t even close
I'm sorry, but those stats stink for measuring pitching performance
FIP, xFIP and tERA are much better. And WAR (derived from FIP) is a good measure of total production for a pitcher (includes IP). Nova has pitched better than Hellickson and made a larger contribution to his team, even in fewer innings.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 21, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Crazy
The stats Hellickson have put up are far superior to Nova
If we have even teams in terms of offense and defense and my teams pitching has Hellickson’s numbers and yours has Nova’s. My team would finish 10 games ahead of yours.
Meaningless numbers my ass
Hellickson – Nova
GP – 28 – 27
IP – 183 – 159
ERA – 2.90 – 3.62
BA – .208 – .255
WHIP – 1.13 – 1.33
OBP – .282 – .321
SLG – .368 – .381
OPS – .650 – .702
oddly fitting
Meaningless numbers my ass
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 22, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
What has happened trumps what might have happened.
Since when do they award the triple crown for “could have been”
Hellickson has far better ACTUAL numbers than Nova, not made up could be numbers
Hellickson – Nova
G – 28 – 27
IP – 183 – 159
ERA – 2.90 – 3.62
OB – .208 – .255
WHIP – 1.13 – 1.33
OBP – .282 – .321
SLG – .368 – .381
OPS – .650 – .702
Actual ERA, OB, WHIP, OBP, SLG and OPS are about defense (and a little the relievers coming in after him) as much as they are about the pitcher himself.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 22, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
So it's sort of a semantic argument
but FIP, xFIP and tERA (or whatever DIPS you would like to subscribe to) are essentially measuring what a pitcher has pitched like. It doesn’t, however, measure what has happened on the field. While what has happened on the field is not limited strictly to what the pitcher does, these things do get attributed to the pitcher for better or worse.
If we were having a conversation about expected future performance, potential FA signings, etc., then obviously bring all the DIPS you want to the table. Unfortunately, ERA actually happened while all those DIPS are attempting to get at what a pitcher’s ERA should have been if factors x, y, or z were normalized.
We’re dealing with a “what should have been” instead of a “what was” evaluation.
Again, it’s a semantic argument, but I don’t think you’ll see many saying that their primary means by which they’re evaluating the ROY candidates is by SIERA.
I’ll reiterate that the ROY should be neither Hellickson nor Nova, and that if it’s going to be a pitcher it should be Pineda, who has been far superior to both even with his midsummer swoon.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 22, 2011 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Pineda's stats if you guys don't want to look them up
IP – 167.0
ERA – 3.72
K/9 – 9.22
BB/9 – 2.86
FIP – 3.41
xFIP – 3.48
tERA – 3.46
SIERA – 3.16
K/BB – 3.23
WAR – 3.3
Pineda has fewer walks than Nova in eight more IP. He has nearly twice as many Ks (171 to 95).
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 22, 2011 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
This year, Pineda>Nova>Hellickson
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 22, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I tend to see these awards as individual awards
ERA is a team stat
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 22, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I Think ERA
Tells you something about individual performance, but not as much as most people think, and not as much as the newer advanced stats.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 22, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
If y'all are gonna make this argument,
then Pineda is ROY not Hellickson or Nova.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 21, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
i was just looking at who's being considered
based on pineda only being 9-10, theres no chance he wins the award.
...and Pineda has been far better than either
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 22, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I, admittedly, have not been paying particularly close attention to these pitchers this year...
…but I’m having trouble seeing Nova as better than Hellickson.
They look to have had roughly equivalent seasons. Hellickson’s had better defense behind him, and is more dramatically outperforming his FIP (at least, if you count ERA as “performance”). But if you look, for instance at K and BB rates, Hellickson has a slight edge. Both have had BABIP luck (Hellickson, maybe a little bit more … but that’s hard to say, since this is the tradeoff for Nova’s GB%—fewer homeruns, but higher BABIP). Anyway, I just can’t see any daylight between the two.
Anyone care to explain why Nova’s having a better year than Hellickson?
I’m talking here, BTW, about actual performance, not ROY-voter logic… I don’t care that Hellickson has the lower ERA or that Nova has all those wins. Setting that stuff aside, I see two pretty identical seasons. What am I missing?
its close, im still going with nova
Nova looks better in terms of FIP, xFIP and SIERA. I’m just not buying into Hellickson. Everything that has gotten better for him this year in terms of batted balls don’t add up when you put together the numbers compared to last year. For instance, his FB rate is only down 8.1%, but his HR/FB% dropped by 18.8%. Also, his LD% actually jumped 54.1% while his BABIP shrunk. I’m not as good with the advanced stats as others, but thats just my take on things I can easily calculate.
FIP, xFIP, SIERA, fWAR
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 21, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
All of which again point you towards Pineda.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 22, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure, I'm not arguing against Pineda
Or arguing for Nova for ROY. Just saying Nova has pitched better than Hellickson.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 22, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah,
I just think the difference is relatively negligible between the two. If we’re going full-on evaluation of pitchers in terms of only what they can control, shouldn’t Hellickson’s better K/9 and K/BB matter then?
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 22, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the thoughts, guys...
…I guess I’m still about where I was before I asked, but I now understand where the consensus is coming from. I pretty much agree with OMD’s comment that the FIP/xFIP/SIERRA difference is negligible, and the K/9 and K/BB comparison kind of evens that out anyway.
Hosmer's defense
I’m sure this has been gone over before, but as far as Hosmer’s defense, do the advanced metrics that go into defensive WAR only measure balls hit at first basemen or do they also measure balls thrown at first basemen by other fielders? If it is the former then Hosmer’s performance in those metrics can be explained away by smallish sample size and his tendency to guard the line; if it is the latter it becomes more dificult to reconcile his poor performance in those metrics with the eye test.
by Timothy The man with no name on Sep 21, 2011 8:58 PM EDT reply actions
Why not Jennings?
Granted, he’s only going to get about 65 games, but he’s put up a pretty good appearance so far.
.287/.376/.498 triple slash. 43 runs, 10 home runs, 25 rbi, and 18 steals extrapolated would be pretty close to 100/25/60/50 over the course of a season (assuming his crazy rbi/home run ratio sticks). I don’t have any further metrics on him but he’s had a great debut showing very surprising power.
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