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On August 18th, the Red Sox were 75-48 (.610), while the Rays were 66-56 (.541). Let's assume those...

On August 18th, the Red Sox were 75-48 (.610), while the Rays were 66-56 (.541). Let's assume those records reflected the true talent levels for both teams. Over their last 37 games, the Red Sox have gone 14-23. The probability of a .610 club winning less than or equal to 14 out of 37 games is .3%. The Rays have gone 23-15 over their last 38 games. The probability of a .540 team winning greater than or equal to 23 out of 38 games is 26%.

from beyondtheboxscore
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