Farewell, Kila
I've really got nothing to say. So if you came here expecting the stat-head to rant and rave and wail against injustice one last time, well... not this one at least. I said my piece months ago when the Royals demoted Kila and promoted Hosmer.
Mostly, I'm happy that the deed is done. Kila Ka'aihue has indeed been sent to Oakland in exchange for Ethan Hollandsworth. Kila had no future with the Royals (which has been true since the beginning, but whatever) and now all parties can move on. And hey, Hollandsworth! Let's all talk ourselves into him being awesome for a few days, then immediately forget about it and add him to the pile of arms we'll wait and see about.
The truth is that baseball players make lousy causes. Nobody quite believes me, but 90% of my problem with Jeff Francoeur is simply how Francoeur is talked about. He's a cause for a huge set of fans and media members and... evidently, people in the Royals front office. Sure, the bloggers bash him, but our collective influence is eclipsed by what Ryan and Frank say in one single game broadcast. I guess what I'm trying weakly to say is, "they started it." Believe me if you want.
But baseball players make bad causes. We made Kila a cause as well, setting him up as a symbol for the failures of the Royals braintrust. And then, when Kila had a bad 100 PAs, the counter-revolutionaires chimed in: our cause had been defeated, exposed, and humiliated.
Or... maybe he was just a AAA prospect trying to hit a baseball, which really, means very little.
I think it was Matt Klassen who made the point somewhere that the image that us statheads and bloggers are somehow elitist is the precisely wrong criticism. We're passionate amateurs trying to make sense of a game we love, with the tools we have. Scouting meanwhile... scouting is the religion of the initiated. There's something hermetic about it. A few people can see what others can't see. And if you aren't so trained, well... you don't know and you never will.
Once the scouting elect have so judged ye, there is little you can do to redeem yourself. This is at once depressing and terrifying, but that's precisely how it played out. It literally did not matter what Kila did at AA and AAA all those years. The die was cast, the verdict read, the fate sealed. For years the unspoken message from the Royals was simple, "Look, we don't believe in this guy, he's going to fail, so move on." One wonders, is that how life works for us? Does all the hustling we do really not matter if we don't have the seal of approval?
I'd like to believe that the judgments cast about someone in the beginning can be overcome. Admittedly, however, baseball is a terrible avenue for playing out this philosophical point. Were the Royals right about Kila? Or was it a self-fulfilling prophecy?
But we round back to Francoeur. Ultimately, I go to sleep thinking that, in the end, Francoeur is still, for me at least, a symbol of nothing. He imparts no true lessons about anything important because, finally, he's a baseball card and someone I watch on TV. If a Royal beat writer who actually spends months and months around him wants to believe something about someone they know, more power to them. For me however, I just can't live in a universe that hollow. Francoeur plays baseball and I watch him do so on evenings and afternoons on my computer. He's not someone I actually know and I never will. If Francoeur or Kila can really mean anything, then I'm guilty of transforming my own private religion out of the random scatterings that lie round.
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Good work here,
you managed to get to the heart of the stats versus scouts debate without casting aspersions. Bravo, Wil.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
everything is taken so personal which always leads the scouts vs stats to bump heads. Both on the opposite side of the spectrum
then when one fails they each make sure to point out the other persons fault reasoning. Like this year with Frenchy Melky and Perez. No one remembers last years failures, well that’s not true but the little battles are quickly forgotten.
Do these effectively hide my thunder?
Nice work, Will
You always help me to see both sides. I always just want to say, “Whatever side you’re on, isn’t this a great game?” I know that seems very “old man” of me, but I just want all baseball fans to get along. I hate that NCAA football has a better product right now and I hate that the NFL has this legion of fans (I don’t watch a lot of NFL football because it’s a circus. They commercial me to death and then teams take their foot off the pedal when they get up by more than 10) But, I digress. I don’t want us to get into NHL territory here. Even though, with the NBA strike, NHL could be making a comeback.
Can I get bonus points for how off-topic, but on-topic I am?
If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down
-Gin Blossoms
Francoeur and Kila don't mean anything
in the sense that they’re just baseball players and baseball is merely entertainment.
There are a whole variety of opinions about their true level of baseball skill, and how to judge it, and that’s what everyone’s arguing about. I personally think Kila is a 4-A hitter and that Francoeur had a surprisingly good season and shows some promise for next year.
Half the posters probably disagree with me, and think that Kila is better and that Frenchy is worse than I do. Each one of them will have his own ideas about how to judge ballplayers’ true talent level. These ideas may fit into a coherent whole or be a hodgepodge of prejudices and old wives’ tales.
So it’s not Kila or Frenchy, it’s the standards of judging them that we’re discussing. Now that has meaning. Is our evidence subjective (“Boy, remember the time Frenchy threw Peralta out at third base with a perfect strike? That was awesome,”) or objective (“Kila struck out in 27% of his PAs,”)? If we have many sources of objective evidence, how do we properly weight each one in order to judge the player’s true value?
That’s called epistomology. (I looked it up.) How do we know what we know? Why do I think, after looking at the evidence through my own lens, that Kila’s not a major-league hitter? Is it because I’ve seen him strike out a lot or because his batting average is below .200, and am I correctly weighting these factors in making my judgment?
Somewhere about here the graduate student teaching your section of Western Civ brings up Plato and the cave.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
I think it's actually "epostamologie."
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 28, 2011 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions
For Royals Fans
It’s more likely eschatology.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 28, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would argue that as Royals fans, we are more prone to the study of...
What’s the study of feces called again?
by sterlingice on Sep 28, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
scatology?
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I hate to say it, but this was one of those things I was not comfortable Googling
by sterlingice on Sep 28, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's scatology
or coprology.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Piero Manzoni Thought
It was more art than science.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 28, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
OMD is right.
And I’m glad that I knew that, because I’m on a work computer.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
It's "epistemology." I told you I had to look it up.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
I appreciate the year
that Francouer had this year. While I (along with many others) see regression in his future, I did not have a problem with them resigning him. They think he is good for the clubhouse, and having been on teams (both in sports and in work) I know that the guy who keeps you loose CAN be important. I’m OK with that, but what sticks in my craw is the deification of him by the Royals PR and media. Monday night, Ryan Lefebvre interviewed him during the game, gushing out his love for him and saying that in his (Ryan’s) book he was the team MVP. I’m sorry but that is horsecrap. Hello?! Alex Gordon anyone?!
It is that attitude that brings out the backlash. I think if they weren’t shoving him down our throat all the time we would all appreciate him more as a player, because he has had a nice season. It’s kind of like a rock band that you actually like, but because they are so overrated by everyone (The greatest band EVER! ) you always end up arguing that they are not that good.
As far as Kila goes, I wish him well. He fits the A’s better anyway and maybe he will get a shot. I won’t waste time thinking that the pitcher we got in return for him will become anything because we are Billy Beane’s bitch.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
Your reaction to the Frenchy-Jesus co-identification
is understandable, but not objective. Frenchy is apparently a very nice guy and friendly with everyone, including the media. I’m not sure whether he’s genuinely a nice guy, as the media may be presenting him as something he isn’t, or he may have fooled the media the way Kirby Puckett did. But, yes, I am also sick of the excessive man-love for Frenchy often expressed by reporters.
That doesn’t make him a bad player, though. He’s produced almost 3 WAR.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
good post...my only quibble is that it was a bad 300 ABs....not 100
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 8:20 AM EDT reply actions
Spread out over two seasons with a season in between them, but yes...
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by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
THAT WAS OUR PRIVATE CORRESPONDENCE, YOU SCOUNDREL
How dare you play Jacobi to my Lessing (or Mendelssohn, not sure which fits better)!
This a bigger breach than Cliff Lee’s remark to Gil Meche about still slaying dragons.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Good piece Will.
So the entire season you should have been cussing the media that LOVES Francoeur, and not the player himself. I love watching baseball, and the few ball players I have met have “seemed” like nice guys. But I don’t personally know any of them. Francoeur had a good season, and deserved some of the attention. But Gordon definitely has had a better season, and deserved more attention.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Sep 28, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions
gordon doesnt seem to care that he doesnt get the attention...
so why should we? Francoeur seemingly wants to be one of the faces of the franchise and he’s been good, so, why not?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
i mean...mark teahen got a shit ton of attention...
he wasnt good…where was the outrage there?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it's mostly that Francoeur's attention obfuscates the season that Alex Gordon has had
as the media/organization seem unable to piece together a slightly more complex narrative than “look at how Frenchy is leading these kids by example because he’s been to the playoffs twice (or maybe three times, didn’t want to look it up)!”
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by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
That, and in justifying the big extension,
Moore cited how much fans like Francoeur. That’s why I tried to get everybody to mass email the booth about Gordon that one time – I want it to be clear to the media that Gordon is supported as well, on the off chance that it might factor in somewhat to Moore’s thinking.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
First, we have no idea how Gordon feels about it. Second, it isn’t important but a lot of us probably like players who perform very well getting their due.
I don’t remember Teahen getting a lot of attention. He had a good season and I’m sure that was recognized by the local sports media. But no, I don’t think Teahen got a “shit ton of attention” at all. And to the extent that he got attention, was he overshadowing anyone else? At the same time DeJesus and Greinke got as much or more attention than Teahen and appropriately so.
And I don’t see “outrage” about the attention Francoeur gets. I see snark. There’s a difference.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
i see incessant snark as outrage...maybe im wrong...
if gordon cared, he’d be out there trying to get attention wouldnt he? you think the media doesnt try to ask him questions? you think they only go to frenchy? teahen was all over FSKC…he had his own show
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, did that Teahen stuff run on FSKC as well as on the scoreboard?
That kinda makes sense; the production quality was a cut above most of the scoreboard segments. I never saw it on TV.
I really don't think anyone is outraged by Francouer
Just annoyed in varying degrees.
And no I don’t think Gordon would necessarily actively agitate for more attention he wanted or thought he deserved more. You can want more attention and recognition without being willing to look like an ass and actively seek it out.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
or maybe he just realizes that he's an awkward speaker and doesnt want to embarrass himself
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by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Doesn’t sound awkward to me.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
you dont think so?
i hear a guy who mumbles alot and oftentimes refuses to look into the camera…he’s not the worst, but he’s far from frenchy
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
No wonder they act like he's a great ballplayer
And that’s the problem.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
didnt moore come out and say like a month ago that frenchy has far exceeded their expecations....
when he’s been a slightly above average player? that means that they didnt think he was very good when they signed him…and its not like they gave him a ton of money….and while they overpaid on the extension more than likely, they didnt pay him like he was a great ballplayer…far from it.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
We were talking about media attention and how they treat Francoeur and Gordon
Why are you suddenly talking about how Moore feels about Francoeur? But hey, let’s talk about it a little.
didnt moore come out and say like a month ago that frenchy has far exceeded their expecations…. when he’s been a slightly above average player?
Frenchy has been a slightly above average player by WAR. Do you think Dayton Moore thinks that Frenchy has been a slightly above average player this year? I don’t think so for a second. My speculation is that Moore thought Francoeur was a roughly average player when he signed him who has been very good this season, far exceeding his expectations.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
as evidenced by the fact that he signed him to a contract paying like like a roughly 1.5 win player?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
What is your point?
That if the contract extension pays him like a 1.5 win player, then Moore must not have thought that Francoeur had a very good 2011 season? Maybe Moore doesn’t think he’ll be as good in 2012-13 as he was in 2011. Maybe Moore was paying Francoeur based on what he thought his price in the market was.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the latter is most likely.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I Doubt WAR
Entered into Moore’s thinking on the matter.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 28, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrong!
For a gritty gamer like Francoeur, every single game is war. And Francoeur is the ultimate warrior. You want to go to battle with 25 Frenchy’s on your side (you read that sentence everyday).
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
correction
(you don’t read that sentence everyday) Witty quip FAIL.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Behold the power of the Francoeur
A reflective post about burying the hatchet on holding up Francoeur/Kila as causes for the scouts/stats causes sparks arguments over….Francoeur. Once again.
There is a difference
Between being the goofy guy the media loves going to, and being the goofy guy the media fawns over and thinks is awesome, when they are merely good.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 28, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
MERELY good?
Player A: 2400+ PA over four seasons, 2.9 fWAR
Player B: 656 PA in one season, 2.8 fWAR
Player A is Jeff Francoeur, 2008-2011
Player B is Jeff Francoeur, 2011
“Merely good?” That’s four seasons of production in one season, baby!
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 28, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
And look at that trend!
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Extending that trend,
Francoeur will be a 10.4 WAR player in 2012!
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Teahen did get a lot of attention locally...
…because he was likable. They had a regular between-innings segment call the “Mark Teahan Show” (or some such) on the scoreboard at every game, in which he interviewed other players. And, as far as between-inning crap goes, it was actually pretty good. Since he left, that has basically be replaced by “Bruce Chen’s Joke of the Day,” which is no better than the rest of the crap they put up there.
Anyway, I suspect this is some of the “attention” that billybeingbilly is talking about.
and frenchy is also likable....
he’s well spoken and a seemingly good guy. people just seem to be unable ti distinguiish between their stathead feelings for frenchy and the fact that he’s a likable guy who should be used as one of the faces of the franchise while he’s here. i hated the frenchy signging and extension as much as anyone, but to me, they’re two totally separate things. i cant hate the guy b/c of the contract moore gives him….unless of course he comes in next year as fat frenchy again
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I read most everything here.
I’m a stay at home dad, and with the kids napping and whatnot, I actually get a TON of time to sit here and read most everything. Like I said last night, I actually find the near constant stream of shots at Francoeur funny but if there’s any seriousness to the notion that anyone here dislikes him because /they/ like him, that’s just douchey, and it’s perhaps out of line. If I recall, Francoeur was the leading vote getter amongst Royals in the all-star game for the first month and a half – why wouldn’t the team push him to the front for support?
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Sorry, I guess that's getting off-topic, sorta.
I too wish Kila good luck. He gave me my first Royals souvenir, after all…
Nick Swisher is handsome.
A stay at home dad, nice!
My wife is about to have our first child, but I don’t think I will get the opportunity to stay at home much. It’s going to be tough to go to work everyday after she comes.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Sep 28, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm kind of with you
If Will throws out the constant shots at Franceur because “they” like him so much, then I find myself liking him more than I should because Will is being so excessively negative. Frenchy is a low OBP guy with some power who, when someone forces him to be a little disciplined at the plate, can be an asset in the lower part of the order and in the field. Not Jesus; not Satan; just an average to occassionally above average OFer. Maybe I’m not so jaded because I don’t watch the broadcasts or care what Lee Judge writes.
I’ve really never understood the angst over Kila. He seems to me to be a fungible player, could make some good contributions eventually if given a chance, but also likely easily replaced by other players (Clint Robinson perhaps?). He’s also clearly blocked by players who are here long term at both positions we’d play him at. He had very little market value, so they traded him for what they could get instead of releasing him outright. Just what did people want to see happen? Trade Billy or gasp Hosmer to give Kila a shot? Not draft Hosmer because “Kila’s got 1st covered”? No.
The team had to see what Jacobs and Guillen had to offer
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 28, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ve really never understood the angst over Kila.
He seems to me to be a fungible player, could make some good contributions eventually if given a chance, but also likely easily replaced by other players …. Just what did people want to see happen?
I think that was the point. He was fungible at a time when we were acquiring expensive “talent” to fill the same position for about the same production.
Once Hosmer was ready, the Kila boat had already sailed.
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by RoyalsRetro on Sep 28, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
It was probably largely spilling over from how long he was rotting the minors in a lost season
which, in turn, was probably spilling over from Gordon rotting in the minors as the team unsuccessfully sought a trade partner for Jose Guillen.
It took on a life of its own, but of course, circumstances were different pre-Hosmer.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the main beef I had with the Kila situation...
….was that his “shot” to see what he could do was almost missed with ill-advised moves to get guys like Jacobs.
But, if GMDM hadn’t traded for Jacobs (and kept the pitcher formerly known as Nunez), and given Kila his chance, it would have made more sense.
And, on the off-chance Kila had a good 2010, and you knew Hosmer was the better player long-term (which is the one thing EVERYONE has agreed on), maybe Kila has more trade value.
/tweeting.... @displacedsptsfn
Maybe this gets answered below,
but even if Kila had no future with the club, he should have gotten the shot when Mike Jacobs was signed. Even if we’re just talking about 2.5 seasons or so, Kila was potentially an asset and came from within the organization. The Jacobs signing inexplicably blocked him and theoretically cost the Royals when the time would have come to deal him as Hosmer pushed him out the door.
It’s that he didn’t get the chance to play and possibly net something of worth.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
then when he failed, people wouldve claimed he was rushed b/c he'd only played in AAA for like a month...
dayton was in a lose/lose situation
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Wrong
That’s just silly. If he’d started the season in KC and performed poorly, he could have been sent down for a while and re-called. If he failed again (over a long stretch), that would have told us something, and there would have been no good argument that he was rushed. Also, he could have been called up for a long stretch after starting the season in Omaha for a month or two (which is what I called for at the time).
There were smart ways to handle the 1B/DH situation. Moore eschewed them and traded a pretty good reliever for Mike Jacobs. You really don’t need to play the Dayton Moore victim card and how he can never do right according to the fans. Wrong. He gets bashed for mistakes. Passing on Kila and going with Jacobs was one of them, period.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
you mean that you and others didnt act like moose was rushed when he struggled for a month and a half?
how would kila have been any different?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
So Kila = Moose?
Kila was a little older at the time, and had more time in the high minors (AA) than Moose. I’m not saying that no one would have complained that Kila had been rushed. You can always find fans who will complain about or applaud anything. But the fact that some may not have liked it doesn’t mean that Moore was screwed. He could have made the right decision. Would have have gotten any flack for it? Yes. That’s his job: to do the right thing for the team and take whatever criticism comes with it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Kila was more than a little older
I’m pretty sure he was 26 this year, and Moose is about 23. That’s huge in prospect terms.
by moregritplease on Sep 28, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Given the latest on Nunez, I mean, Juan Carlos Oviedo...
Is it possible that someone on the Royals knew what was up and felt the need to move the guy? I’m asking, because it was brought up in a few columns on his case that the Marlins front office might well have been aware, and may also get sanctioned in some way. There were certainly similar rumblings when the A’s let Tejada and Giambi go in free agency that the team didn’t want to take the risk of signing guys those long term. I’m not even asking the question to “ask the question” – I really don’t know.
Going WAAAAYYY OT: Does anyone know why Santiago Casilla still gets his work visa and Nunez potentially gets the book thrown at him?
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Is it possible that someone on the Royals knew what was up and felt the need to move the guy?
I don’t know that there’s any reason to believe that this is the case. But anything is possible. I don’t think they deserve the benefit of the doubt. FWIW, published reports said that they tried to trade Carlos Rosa for Jacobs first, but the Marlins passed. So it doesn’t seem to me like they were working hard to get Nunez out of the organization. They were working hard to get Jacobs into it, as hard as that is to imagine.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think they deserve the benefit of the doubt either
but it absolutely must be a part of every conversation regarding any latin (and in particular DR) player, especially given the place that steroids and 9/11 have in regards to employment in major league baseball.
Translation: If they didn’t at least wonder if he wasn’t what he said he was, they’re as dumb as you think they are.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Even if they did know...
needing to move a guy and needing to move a guy for Mike Jacobs are two very different things.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Sep 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Wasn't Leo Nunez
The guy dealt for Milton Bradley until that deal was nixed?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 28, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I highly doubt it - my understanding is the Marlins caught wind of it earlier this year.
I wonder what the consequences may have been if it could be proven that the Royals knew and traded him nonetheless (and I mean the consequences in 2006 – there would be little point addressing it now).
Also, MLB offered amnesty in 2008 to any players who came clean about faking their identities, and Oviedo chose not to. It’s on him.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
If the Royals knew and didn’t do anything about, there would be legal ramifications from the DOJ/ICE.
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by RoyalsRetro on Sep 28, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So shouldn't the Marlins be facing these same legal consequences
since they knew earlier this year yet continued to use him?
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
I don’t know what the DOJ will do, but there’s a legal problem there.
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by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And I think Moore is more straight-laced and law abiding than that
I think if Moore found out about Nunez living and playing under an assumed identity, I don’t think he’d just trade him away. I think he’d notify MLB and the appropriate legal authorities.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
To me, Kila and Jacobs will be inexorably linked
It’s not that I was a big believer in Kila, it’s just that the Nunez-Jacobs trade/Kila block was so pointless and misguided. Whether Kila was actually going to be good at the MLB level is really the secondary issue.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Sep 28, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
the jacobs trade was undeniably bad...
but kila hadnt really earned his shot at that point…and did nothing in 2009 to deserve a shot…it wasnt until midseason last year that he’d really proven himself at the AAA level…and he got a decent amount of PT…he probably shouldve been called up a month or two earlier, but whatever
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 28, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
At that point, Guillen was DHing most every day
and understandably so, as Moore was hoping to parlay him into something. Guillen slumped badly in the summer, which killed any hopes of that.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Was he?
In 2008, Butler and Jacobs split most of the 1B/DH time, and Guillen played over 2/3 of the time in RF still. He didn’t become a DH permanently until mid-2009 or so.
by moregritplease on Sep 28, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I did mean 2009, sorry.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
but kila hadnt really earned his shot at that point…
Close enough for a bad team that needed to see if a guy like Kila could contribute long-term. It was time for him to get a good long look sometime in 2009. He wasn’t some 21-year-old kid who needed to be handled with kid gloves. He was old and experienced enough to be worthy of a shot on an awful team with a hole at 1B/DH.
and did nothing in 2009 to deserve a shot
A 120 wRC+ in AAA makes you worthy of a shot with the Royals, when one of the 1B/DH’s stinks, the team is horrible and the prospect in question is of Kila’s age and pedigree.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't comment on the Kila/Jacobs deal too much...
I wasn’t paying attention to the Royals in 2008… but I can’t kill the Royals FO or Dayton in particular too much for it because these are kind of the same things that all teams do. Just this past year, Oakland signed Matsui and blocked Chris Carter, and the Yankees re-signed (am I brain-farting here?) Posada and blocked Jesus Montero. Both of those teams fairly obviously are using higher metrics to value major league players, and still made those moves anyway.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
I think Oakland may well have been looking at Matsui as an entity to trade.
New York seems to have little concern for getting their prospects to the bigs in general. They also had eyes on contention, making it an entirely different conversation.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Sep 28, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I threw in the Yankees/Posada deal because it struck me at the last second while typing...
but the deal for Matsui was particularly insane. Coming into this year, the A’s had no reason to let Chris Carter rot in the minors another year, even a couple of months, unless they thought they were damaging his value as a prospect by having him hit for a year in Oakland (that’s not crazy either, I don’t think), and Matsui was clearly over the hill. My point isn’t to make the analogy perfect – it sure looks close enough for me, but even the smartest GMs make these kind of deals.
As far as I could tell, even at the time, if there was an advantage to Matsui in their lineup it was the hope that more asian/Japanese fans would buy tickets. Not necessarily the worst idea on earth, but it goes against the whole winning drives the ticket sales theme that most of us would otherwise understand.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
It depends on the perspective of who is reading.
It’s easy for us to forget that on most any blog, the vast majority of traffic comes from lurkers (and not necessarily people who check every day). So much of the “culture” of this blog is figured out over time, preferrably from actively being part of the community.
A casual reader who comes across a piece or two without an awareness of the underlying snark/etc. and who concludes that we dislike Francoeur is, frankly, probably making a reasonable assumption.
I certainly don’t go for him to fail – I can only speak for myself, but I would assume nobody else does, either.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't mean to speak for some kind of silent majority...
I think I speak for myself just fine, and at 10:51am, more sober, even!
I’m almost certain that there is some sentiment (I can’t find the post/comment to back it up) that Francoeur succeeding this year was the worst possible outcome of all this. It’s not that I don’t understand it entirely, the guy has in fact come off a couple of seasons where he’s been replacement, but it seems reasonably safe that he’ll post enough WAR to be worth… blah blah blah, we’ve all gone over this a thousand times.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
No, I honestly think there is some of that sentiment as well, and it might even be somewhat unconscious.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m almost certain that there is some sentiment (I can’t find the post/comment to back it up) that Francoeur succeeding this year was the worst possible outcome of all this.
Kind of, yeah. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Francoeur’s true talent level is 1.5 WAR. Bringing him back, even for an affordable deal doesn’t really help the team that much. In fact, it blocks Cain who has some upside potential and 6 cost controlled years of team control.
, the guy has in fact come off a couple of seasons where he’s been replacement, but it seems reasonably safe that he’ll post enough WAR to be worth
But the problem is that below average players aren’t the guys you lock down for multiple years for significant millions. Below average players are the ones that good organizations sign for cheap one-year deals, and don’t allow them to block pretty good prospects like Cain.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I pointed out above a few examples
to counter this…
Below average players are the ones that good organizations sign for cheap one-year deals, and don’t allow them to block pretty good prospects like Cain.
And I don’t think I need to go round and round on it all over this thread. My point above about all this free time I have all day was meant to be dovetailed by the notion that even I have better things to do than try to find ways to get these thread comments sucked up the right hand side of my computer.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Hermeneutics and Scouting
Does anyone really believe that we can objectively measure all aspects of a baseball player’s performance at the current time?
We see part of their potential future through statistics. But it is the height of arrogance to believe that those statistics tell anything even close to the whole story. Indeed, I would be supremely surprised to discover that what we can currently measure in the minor leagues tells even half of the story. In the absence of objective measurements, the gap in knowledge must be filled by an elite—people who have the access and, most importantly, the TIME to watch so much minor league baseball that the cumulative total of experience they accumulate leads to meaningful intuition about futures. That’s as true about baseball and scouting as it is about any other field of endeavor in which a complex mix of inputs leads to uncertain outputs.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions
There's a difference between rightly acknowleding the non-quanitifiable character of some knowledge
(if you want to characterize that as the “hermeneutic” character of the human sciences, that’s okay, I guess) and the necessity of professional scouts.
Of course, those scouting reports are vetted and teams make a point of trying to get their scouts to use the same scale, and also do their own “scouting of scouts” to determine who the hard and easy graders are.
But there is a difference between the professional world of scouting, where rational claims are offered and refuted, and the hermetic-gnostic claim on message boards and by way of journalists, that the the organization has “seen something” that either “we don’t know about” (well, okay, how does your beetle-in-a-box look?) ) or simply can’t be conveyed. At least the tone of some posts and pieces.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 28, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I was just riffing on Will's hermetic line.
As far as the general public, is there any real difference between a putatuively “rational” claim and a simple claim of truth through esoteric knowledge? In other words, the public isn’t equipped to judge the validity of a rational argument among experts—it devolves in the end to an appeal to authority.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Still not sure what "hermeneutics" has to do with the hermetic (esoteric) thing Will is talking about
but anyway, rather than get into a big long thing on side topics (“I can’t educate” sounds like something right out of Johann Georg Schlosser), I’ll simply note that the comment of mine Will is referencing was in response to the accusation that sabermetrics is a form of “elitism.” In comparison of how the authority of “what scouts say” is invoked by non-scouts in the mainstream media and on message boards, that is not the case.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 28, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone involved in statistical analysis believes that stats tell you everything you need to know about a player. I don’t know why you’d even ask the question. Scouting and tools-based analysis is important. No one is saying “throw the scouts out.” Will was speaking (briefly) to the closed nature of the “elite.”
Scouting meanwhile… scouting is the religion of the initiated. There’s something hermetic about it. A few people can see what others can’t see. And if you aren’t so trained, well… you don’t know and you never will.
Neither Will nor anyone else I’ve seen is saying, “we really don’t need scouts. Stats tell us everything.” He’s reacting to the scouts who say, “don’t bother me with this guy’s minor league stats. He doesn’t have the batspeed. I can judge batspeed; I you can’t.” The sabermetric person wouldn’t dismiss the tools argument, he’d add to it with the stats and say, “well, there’s an opening on the team, so let’s give the guy a shot and see if the minor league numbers are for real, even if the scouts don’t like his tools.”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunate and lingering side effect of Moneyball
Is this false dichotomy between Scoutng/Stats, which I assume at this point, takes place much more frequently in the media/blogisphere, than it does in your typical MLB FO. As has been said many times, obviously a blend of scouting and analysis is necessary to succeed. Its unfortunate that some media types have taken the addition of stat analysis as some kind of threat, and rage against it a la Joe Morgan, or to a more nuanced effect, like Lee Judge. They should be complimentary approaches, both needed, both with limitations, etc….its too bad that so much energy is used denigrating prongs of the same fork, so to speak.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Sep 28, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I Think Stats
And I mean real, sabermetric, analytical stats, should be used to confirm what you see. If the eyes and stats disagree, then you start digging for the reasons. My eyes say Francoeur is an amazing batter, because with his plate approach and strike zone judgement, most players would never get past A ball. The stats confirm this.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 28, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Elite
“Will was speaking (briefly) to the closed nature of the "elite." "
Which was the whole point of my post, if you’d bothered to read beyond the first couple of sentences.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I read it
You wrote about the need for scouts. You did not speak to the issue Will raised about them like a “religion of the initiated” whose subjective judgments are treated as definitive statements on talent and tools. And if we disagree then apparently we just don’t understand, because they can see it.
And for the record, again, the answer to your comment’s question is a resounding “No.”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh
the gap in knowledge must be filled by an elite—people who have the access and, most importantly, the TIME to watch so much minor league baseball that the cumulative total of experience they accumulate leads to meaningful intuition about futures
You don’t have the experience to judge their statements. Neither do I. We haven’t put in the time to have the necessary level of expertise to do so.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
A pattented BlueEyes_Austin "Sigh"
Surprised you waited this long to break it out in this thread.
But I love that comment. It’s not only an appeal to authority, it is complete surrender to it. Cheers.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
He’s reacting to the scouts who say, "don’t bother me with this guy’s minor league stats. He doesn’t have the batspeed. I can judge batspeed; I you can’t."
That’s a straw man example. A scout can very well be justified in saying, “Yes, he’s got good OBP in AAA but here’s the story—he’s able to wait for his pitch to hit against most pitchers here but when you see him against a pro guy or a real prospect with offspeed stuff he can’t handle it. As a result, regardless of his stats, he’ll get eaten alive in the bigs.”
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it is not a straw man. It is the problem with many in the scouting community (both professional and amateur). They believe that the real evaluation comes from looking at the player’s tools, without regard to stats. The sabermetrician/analyst recognizes how important it is to evaluate using both scouting and statistical analysis (especially for minor leaguers and amateur players).
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
BS
You don’t think the very first thing a scout does when he’s going to a new team to look at potential follows is their stats?
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
What I think is that their stats don’t factor into their evaluations (except perhaps subconsciously). I’m sure they see things like ERA, batting average, HR’s, W/L record and the like. What is important is how they evaluate players. But hey, they’re the experts, right? They get it; we don’t. Not only do they say it, but so do their staunch defenders, such as yourself.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You know, you're right
A person who spends a lot of each day programming SAS doesn’t see the value of statistics.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I didn’t say that.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Fantastic piece
I think there is a tendency by stat guys to hold players up on a pedestal the same way traditional scouting types do. They hold up CC Sabathia and his 21 wins and how he “knows how to win”, we hold up Zack Greinke and his 13 wins and laud his “unique” behavior. It becomes “us” vs. “them” and battle lines are drawn. There are “our guys” and “their guys.” You are seeing it again with the release of “Moneyball” and the AL MVP discussions.
So I think its important to hold “our guys” up to the same standards of critique as we hold “their guys.” I think we forget that Kila was generally one of the older guys on his teams, and usually put up big numbers only on his second season at a level. I don’t know if Kila would ever have been a useful regular, and I would have liked to have seen what he could have done over Jacobs, but he was far from a sure thing, and did get 326 MLB PAs, far more than most, to prove what he could do, and he put up pretty crummy numbers. There were enough red flags surrounding Kila to suggest failure, but also enough upside to suggest he should have been given a chance when the team had fewer options.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 28, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Well put
There were enough red flags surrounding Kila to suggest failure, but also enough upside to suggest he should have been given a chance when the team had fewer options.
Also a longer look (preferrably earlier), in that 300 PA’s really don’t “prove” anything either way.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Scouting Types Probably
Differ on this. Their Idea of a SSS might be 100 PA’s; just a hunch.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 28, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I would think that for scouting types, samples, stats and data you can count (other than the 20-80 scale) is irrelevant. They didn’t need to see anything of him in the majors. They saw his swing. They assessed his batspeed. And they found him wanting. End of analysis. Any poor performance over any amount PA’s simply confirms the conclusions they’ve already drawn. But no additional data is necessary or desired by them.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I Think It
Takes less failure to confirm their assessment than stat people need.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 28, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, if you take the most extreme example I can think of...
if a scout shows up at a high school game and sees that somebody can’t throw a fastball faster than 70 mph, you can discount them quicker than you could if you saw that they gave up ten hits in one game.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Sep 28, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
Pitching skills in particular can be assessed this way; a guy has movement or doesn’t, can hit the strike zone or can’t, can vary speeds or not.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
SSS
I think the applicaton of sample size to what scouts are looking for is irrelevant because it isn’t a statistical analysis. Either a quality is there or it isn’t.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Sep 28, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And having a "quality" doesn't vary from game-to-game
If a curveball is off in one appearance, it’s going to be bad in every appearance. Pitchers don’t have bad days where a pitch isn’t working for them. Pitchers don’t have days where their velocity is down. Pitchers don’t have days where their control isn’t there. Right?
Maybe it’s the cut of a player’s jib that really is constant. And a good scout can pick that up in the first minute he sees a player.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 28, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Great work, Will.
Your writing (especially in the last 6 months) has really “spoken” to me on a level deeper than just baseball. Of course, baseball isn’t “just” baseball, but you know what I mean (ok, you probably don’t). Thanks for treating us to this style of writing.
I no longer have a blog.
by CollininCalifornia on Sep 28, 2011 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
nice piece Wil(l)
First Huber, now Kila – I need to find better players to unreasonably support.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
"Hi, have we met?"
“My name is Clint Robinson”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 28, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
actually, I think part of it is that the player has to be blocked by someone I don't like
MITCH! is there somewhat for me in this way. Kila by Jacobs, Huber by, well pick any outfielder in the past.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
So whatever vet catcher we bring in next year
That results in us DFAing Brayan Pena?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
that might work, although I think I felt more strongly last year when
He Who Must Not Be Named was blocking Pena.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I think the "self-fulfilling prophecy" is the most aggravating part
The FO waited and waited before bringing him up, and said “it’s because he can’t hit ML pitching”; then—after three stints at the ML level of 3%, 33%, and 15% of a season—Kila wasn’t able to adjust, and the FO made sure the scouting report came true by sending him down and ending his career (as a Royal, anyway), saying “see, we told you he couldn’t hit”.
Jacobs, for instance, didn’t get that same treatment, despite similar or worse performance.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 28, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs























