Starting Staffs: Playoff Teams V. The Royals
The Royals starting pitching is decidedly meh. Which is horrid to think about, when the general consensus is that the Royals' staff is somehow better than what it was during the first month of the season.
On top of that, there is a somewhat believed-to-be-true-barring-sturdy-resistance belief that the rest of the 25-man roster is good enough to contend, particularly in the AL Central, for the post-season. With that in mind, I decided to take a look, comparing the Royals current staff production compared to some of the teams that are going to (or are contending to) make the playoffs, to see what the breadth of this chasm may actually be. For the purposes of this analysis, I have simply gone through each team's roster to use the five pitchers who have made the most starts for a given team. I did not think for the purpose of this study that the data would be A) easily available and B) worth it to obtain the five most current starters for each given team. The five players who have started the most games more often than not have thrown the most innings, and therefore have had the greatest impact on a team's season overall. I realize that this is somewhat inaccurate, given the variables of number of starts, innings pitched, etc. It is meant to be more of a snapshot than an in-depth purveyance.
First off, the Royals' staff:
| Player | GS | IP | ER | K | BB | fWAR | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hochevar | 29 | 185.1 | 98 | 116 | 57 | 2.2 | 4.76 | 4.28 | 4.06 |
| Danny Duffy | 19 | 99 | 63 | 83 | 48 | 0.5 | 5.73 | 4.92 | 4.49 |
| Felipe Paulino | 15 | 96.1 | 41 | 84 | 35 | 2.0* | 4.3 | 3.66 | 3.89 |
| Bruce Chen | 20 | 120.1 | 55 | 77 | 41 | 0.8 | 4.11 | 4.77 | 4.6 |
| Jeff Francis | 28 | 168.2 | 87 | 86 | 34 | 2.6 | 4.64 | 3.98 | 4.17 |
| Total | 111 | 668.5 | 344 | 446 | 215 | 6.1 | 4.71 | 4.32 | 4.24 |
*Paulino's fWAR is for his total accumulation on the season, not just his time with the Royals (although he has accumulated all of it with KC. His fWAR in COL was -0.1)
Quick notes:
- Jeff Francis is our most valuable starter this year
- Hochevar has been better than his traditionals indicate
- in four more starts, Duffy has gone just 2.2 more innings than Paulino
And here are the other teams for comparison:
| Boston Red Sox | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Beckett | 2.54 | 3.42 | 3.64 | 3.9 |
| Jon Lester | 3.05 | 3.79 | 3.58 | 3 |
| John Lackey | 5.94 | 4.79 | 4.59 | 1 |
| Tim Wakefield | 4.95 | 4.82 | 4.68 | 0.8 |
| Clay Buchholz | 3.48 | 4.34 | 4.25 | 1 |
| Total fWAR | 9.7 | |||
| New York Yankees | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
| C.C. Sabathia | 2.99 | 2.83 | 2.98 | 6.3 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5.25 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 1 |
| Ivan Nova | 3.89 | 4 | 4.03 | 2.1 |
| Bartolo Colon | 3.72 | 3.79 | 3.46 | 2.4 |
| Freddy Garcia | 3.09 | 3.66 | 4.23 | 2.4 |
| Total fWAR | 14.2 | |||
| Detroit Tigers | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
| Justin Verlander | 2.34 | 2.87 | 3.04 | 6.4 |
| Max Scherzer | 4.52 | 4.25 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Brad Penny | 5.13 | 4.96 | 4.67 | 0.7 |
| Rick Porcello | 5.01 | 4.12 | 4.04 | 2 |
| Phil Coke | 4.54 | 3.5 | 4.45 | 1.9 |
| Total fWAR | 13 | |||
| Texas Rangers | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
| C.J. Wilson | 3.28 | 3.36 | 3.46 | 4.5 |
| Derek Holland | 4.13 | 3.85 | 3.82 | 3 |
| Colby Lewis | 4.32 | 4.74 | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| Alexi Ogando | 3.68 | 3.77 | 3.95 | 2.8 |
| Matt Harrison | 3.54 | 3.66 | 3.91 | 3 |
| Total fWAR | 14.6 | |||
| Arizona Diamondbacks | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
| Ian Kennedy | 2.96 | 3.5 | 3.68 | 3.8 |
| Daniel Hudson | 3.61 | 3.21 | 3.67 | 4.3 |
| Joe Saunders | 3.91 | 4.74 | 4.43 | 1 |
| Josh Collmenter | 3.18 | 3.51 | 4.03 | 2.3 |
| Zach Duke | 5.02 | 4.01 | 4.25 | 0.8 |
| Total fWAR | 12.2 | |||
| LA Angels of Anaheim | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR |
| Dan Haren | 3.16 | 2.88 | 3.26 | 5.6 |
| Ervin Santana | 3.27 | 3.75 | 3.79 | 3.4 |
| Jered Weaver | 2.49 | 3.01 | 3.74 | 5.4 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 4.63 | 4.78 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
| Joel Pineiro | 5.33 | 4.53 | 4.41 | 0.9 |
| Total fWAR | 16 |
So what are some things to take away from this analysis?
- A good foundation for contention would be a team whose Top 3 starters produce ~11 fWAR per 110 games
- They can afford to get by on slightly-worse pitching if they field an offense like the Red Sox(they won't)
- Detroit's pitching is wafer thin. Sub out Verlander for some Jeff Francis-type guy and the Tigers could easily have the Royals' W-L record.
This may seem a little overly-simplistic, but I just wanted to illustrate a couple of points:
- The Royals aren't that far away from contending
- They're further than you think
Two players doesn't seem like much for a 25-man roster, but it becomes a monumental task when you those two players would essentially be the #1 and #2 starting pitchers on your staff.
Adding 8-10 fWAR in starting pitching is much more difficult than it sounds. For argument's sake, If the Royals signed FA C.J. Wilson, generally considered to be one of (if not the best) starting pitchers available this off-season, they would still be about 4 fWAR away from being legitimate contenders. Paulino for a full season, assuming he can stay healthy, may get you another 1-2 fWAR. If Hochevar can continue this second-half swoon for a full season, that would probably get you another 1-1.5 fWAR. Improvement from Duffy would be a boon. Everything else (Montgomery starting, Crow starting, Holland starting, etc.) would be a push to possibly a regression over what they have gotten over Francis and Chen this season. And short of all of those things coming together, there seems to be too much of a disparity between how good the Royals' starting pitching is going to be, and how good it needs to be in order for them to contend for the division, let alone getting out of the ALDS.
There is a possibility that the division could continue to regress, but I doubt it. Detroit and Chicago always spend money. Cleveland is preparing to contend for the next several years. Minnesota is MINNESOTA.
So short of some big Front Office push to bring in two 3-5 fWAR arms this off-season, we may see improvement in the overall club next year, but I think the results may be more of the same.
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Just for a different point of reference,
Of the teams you’ve listed, KC has the second lowest number of games started from their top 5:
Tex – 137
LAA – 132
Det – 126
NYY – 124
Ari – 115
KC – 111
Bos – 109
So Texas has earned 8.3 more WAR than KC, but of course they have. They’ve had 26 more opportunities to accumulate it from their top 5. Obviously, the Royals wouldn’t generate another 8.3 WAR in 26 starts, but the fissure between the clubs may not look as insurmountable.
Consider that Paulino has only started 15 games, while most other pitchers have almost double that. If you doubled Paulino’s fWAR for 15 more games, it would increase by 2.0 (although certainly not guaranteed). That, in itself, closes the gap a bit. Master Chen and Duffy could combine for another 0.7 boost this year had they started 30 games. So had we had starting pitchers making the same number of starts as some of the other guys on this list, we could be sitting closer to more of an 8-9 WAR difference – and some of that could be attained through Hoch/Duffy/Paulino progression next year.
That’s a lot of ifs, certainly, Also, every team goes through injuries and callups, so it’s not as simple as I’m trying to make it out to sound. However, I’m not sure the doomsday scenario painted here is as simple, either (and I realize you weren’t trying to give some in-depth reality, so I’m not trying to be overly critical. As you said, it’s just a snapshot.)
Your point is still made. The team has to come up with something more to close the gap, as it is still quite large.
For simple math, adjusting every team's number of starts to 137
LA Angels – 16.6
New York – 15.7
Texas – Same (14.6)
Arizona – 14.5
Detroit – 14.1
Boston – 12.2
Kansas City – 7.5
Now, I know there is a little bit of circularity to this, but it is still pretty apparent that the Royals are at least a pair of starters (or one really, really good starter) away from contending.
Even if you adjust Paulino, Hochevar, and Duffy to a full season’s worth of production, you are still talking about being anywhere from 5-8 WAR shy of being where the other contending teams are.
And I’m not really trying to paint a doomsday scenario. There is a strong possibility that Paulino, Hochevar, and Duffy will improve next year. But unless one of them jumps into the 6-8 WAR range while the others continue to improve, the rotation would still look to be a 3-6 WAR pitcher shy of having a truly contending rotation.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
These are the kind of trades the Royals need to make
That didn’t require any big time prospect, right? Just a spare meh outfielder and a C+ prospect?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
yes
I don’t know much about the guys they sent, but that says enough in itself to get a guy who is probably a league average starter at worst.
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 6, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Are you saying that is smarter than the upcoming Myers-for-Jurrjens trade?
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 6, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
He's made six starts, 2.97/2.80/3.24 with 1.1 fWAR for Detroit
But has 4.2 fWAR total between Detroit and Seattle.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
I'm almost positive that you're underestimating the
“Everyone will become more awesomer at the same time and that time is next year” factor
Seriously tho, I really appreciate posts like these As someone who does not pretend to be or will ever try to become a Saberprophet, it helps to have things condensed down to something like WAR which even a guy like me can understand. It’s much easier to understand what’s next for the Royals when thought of in this manner.
So I’m guessing the cost of what we need to be real contenders is what? Prolly 20 millionish in payroll and some prosects to acquire? (Assuming that the lineup is good enough to contend as is) Not that its easily accoplished, but it does at least seem attainable.
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by philofthenorth on Sep 6, 2011 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously we need
to add 2 starters and a pitching coach to contend next year.
I get tired of reading how Hochevar’s peripherals show he is a better pitcher. They have done that every season, but he groups his mistakes together. If he is worse than his peripherals every season, then he is a guy who will just never be as good as these stats.
He has shown signs in these last 10 starts, putting together the best run of his career, but I still think that if he is any higher than the #3 starter we will not be playoff bound.
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