Looking Back at the 2010 Draft, Again

by Freneau on Jan 11, 2012 11:15 PM EST in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues

Ah, 2010. The Royals were assembling the Greatest Farm System Ever, as Hosmer found his eyes, Wil Myers soared and Moose started to pull it together.

By the time the draft rolled around, the plaudits were already rolling in, the Royals were back, the Royals knew how to draft and develop talent, the pipeline was bursting, etc. Then the Royals went college-heavy, really college heavy. Did this mean they thought they were getting close? That's what just about everyone thought.

When I checked in on the 2010 draftees last summer, the word I used to characterize the haul was "strange." Now that we have a full year of data to look at (still not very much, as these things go) what picture emerges?

1st Pick- Christian Colon (SS): Colon was the fourth overall pick, and while he had his fans on draft day, he's had a rough go. He was going to be a divisive pick eventually (you could see it coming) but he's not even been good enough to divide. Everyone's just worried. Colon posted a .668 OPS at AA NWA and doubts about his ability to handle short persist. As a college hitter, he was supposed to adjust a little quicker to professional pitching, but that hasn't happened yet. Next season will be his age 23 campaign, and NWA is a nice place to hit. We're far far far from being able to say anything definitive about Colon yet, but he really needs to post a .900 OPS and draw good defensive reviews next season. Moreover, it might be time to proactively move him to 2B sooner rather than later. That'll be a painful admission, but as a hedge might help in the long run.
2nd - Brett Eibner (RHP -> OF): The Royals made Eibner a fulltime OF and he rewarded them by performing like an Astros prospect in 2011. Eibner hit ,213/.340/.408 last year as a 22 year old at A ball.
3rd - Michael Antonio (SS): He's now made it all the way up to Idaho Falls! I'm not even sure I'm being sarcastic, either. One of the few HS draftees at the top of the table for the Royals, Antonio has now progressed through 3 levels in two seasons, and should start 2012 with the Chukars. Has shown some moderate power thus far (.453 slg) which is interesting. He's still very very far away from the Majors, which is in this case a good thing. Let's loop back on him, say, July 2013?

4th - Kevin Chapman (LHP): Lifetime 5.06 ERA for the 22 year old, who reached AA last year. In 25 games (39 innings) he posted a 4.99 ERA for the Naturals. Still, he's a guy to watch, because he gets lots and lots of strikeouts. Wait for it... quite a few walks as well. A proverbial "if he ever gets it together..." live arm, only with less upside because he's already a reliever.

5th - Jason Adam (RHP): There's been quite a lot of buzz about Adam thus far, really going back to Spring Training last season. Scouts like the kid. That being said, the numbers at Kane County in 2011 weren't terribly noteworthy. Definitely still an interesting pick, definitely someone to watch, and still potentially the steal that many hoped he would be in 2010. Now let's get that K rate over 7 per 9 in the low minors. Sickels had him as the #15 prospect in the system last fall.

6th - Scott Alexander (LHP): A lefty arm, Alexander struggled at Idaho Falls in 2011: 55 IP, 5.73 ERA. The main problem was that he allowed an awful 11.9 hits per nine. A profile two years ago notes that he allowed an extremely low batting average as a junior at Sonoma State. Live by the batting average, die by it, I guess. According to the link above, Alexander was considered a 2nd or 3rd round pick out of high school. For a college pitcher (he did two years at Pepperdine) 2011 was a major disappointment.

7th - Eric Cantrell (RHP): Another college arm (George Washington), Cantrell signed in time to appear in one game in 2010. In 2011, at Burlington, he went 0-5 in 13 games. Really all you can see out of 2011 is a vaguely interesting strikeout number (8.2 per 9). Has not allowed a homer as a professional and appears to be generating decent groundball numbers. Upside?

8th - Michael Mariot (RHP): The Royals have used Mariot as a starter and a reliever in his two minor league seasons. Mariot notched 50+ innings with the Chukars back in 2010, and 100.1 with Wilmington last season. The numbers year to year are quite similar - mid 3.00s ERA, 8 H/9, 2 BB/9, etc. The main divergence was that his strikeouts went from very good in Idaho (10.3/9) to ok as a Blue Rock (7.2/9). Yet another Royal to post good numbers in Wilmington, it will be decisive (perhaps, so, actually not) to see how Mariot handles AA hitters, presumably next year, as a 23 year old. Odd note: Mariot started 9 games in 2011 and finished 14, so apparently he's now a closer?

9th- Whit Merrifield (Extremely Southern): For me, the only question is this: did he have a buzz cut or did he have Bama bangs?

10th- Tim Ferguson (OF): A possibly interesting player. A CF out of Ole Miss, Ferguson has hit well as a pro. He signed quickly enough to play in 47 games in 2010 and in 2011, mostly as a Blue Rock, he hit well. Anyone who slugs .597 in Frawley in 430 PAs is worth following.

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Comments

No Conclusion because I'm exhausted and in formatting hell

by Freneau on Jan 11, 2012 11:15 PM EST reply actions

I was going to ask you guys to submit additional players of note

by Freneau on Jan 11, 2012 11:16 PM EST reply actions

16th round RHP Chas Byrne is off to a decent start

Although he’s just a reliever. 3.93 ERA in 36 games for A Kane County with a 53-12 K/BB ratio.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 12, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions

18th round Brian Fletcher (Scott's kid)

.946 OPS for Kane County, although plate discipline will be an issue it appears

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 12, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

I know Schaum is a big fan of Kevin David as a sleeper prospect

Although he spent a fair amount of time injured this season.

by 9il on Jan 12, 2012 4:54 AM EST up reply actions

Is plate discipline

ever actually looked at as an issue by the Royals?

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Jan 12, 2012 5:58 AM EST up reply actions

Only if you have it.

by Dadunca on Jan 12, 2012 8:32 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

Easily rectified by bat control though

And plus hands and plus hands

by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Jan 12, 2012 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

Fletcher worked on 1B during instructs

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Jan 13, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

No way a guy named "Chas" makes my Top Ten

(and, yes, everyone has to have a Top Ten prospect list, dontchaknow)

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 12, 2012 8:38 AM EST up reply actions

Chas was one of Wil Ferrell's greatest characters ever.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 12, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

Mom! The meat loaf! F--k!

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 12, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly.

That and the whole funeral thing.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 12, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

which is worse

Chas or Whit?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 12, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

Overall, you have to conclude this was a weird group that will probably not be a strong part of the system

by Freneau on Jan 11, 2012 11:16 PM EST reply actions

with the usual caveat that it is super early and things can change

by Freneau on Jan 11, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

FIN.

by Loose Seal on Jan 11, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions

Two possible avenues to salvation

One – it gets lucky (that will save any draft class)
Two – makes up for low quality with high quantity. Which is the point of drafting a bunch of college guys after the first few rounds, I suppose – low ceiling, high likelihood of contributing something.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 12, 2012 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

If Colon Replaces

Yu-Bet in ‘13, I’ll call that experiment a success.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 12, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

That draft looks like a boner melter

why so exhausted? get thee some ambien and a sick day. Voila. You’ll be fresh as a daisy.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 11, 2012 11:21 PM EST reply actions

I don't get the 'Stros hate

"The Jaguars need Jacksonville, and Jacksonville needs the Jaguars"
-Shahid Khan

by tiquanunderwear on Jan 11, 2012 11:38 PM EST reply actions

Terrible Draft.

killed some momentum on our Best Farm System Ever!

by vic1124 on Jan 11, 2012 11:55 PM EST reply actions

I Can't Wait

For Eibner to start pitching at 26.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2012 11:58 PM EST reply actions

then becomes a minor league free agent after the season…

2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition

by sfeldkamp on Jan 12, 2012 8:54 AM EST up reply actions

I completely forgot about some of these guys

Scott Alexander? Eric Cantrell? Are these real names? I usually follow the draft pretty closely too.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 12, 2012 12:05 AM EST reply actions

I was a fan of colon though.

Thought he was going to play above average defense at 2nd and hit around .280 with a solid on base and solid power.

I wasn’t too upset but looking back grabbing a guy like Pomeranz, Grandal., Paxton, or Cole would of been nice.

by vic1124 on Jan 12, 2012 12:46 AM EST reply actions

Hindsighter!

I agree that Colon smells terrible. If the BBCOR bats had been instituted a year earlier, Colon might not have been picked in the first 2 rounds Imo.

by Bronzillo on Jan 12, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Ferguson's OPS was .597 not his SLG

Antonio will likely be in Kane County hopefully playing 3b

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Jan 12, 2012 1:14 AM EST reply actions

Yikes

by Freneau on Jan 12, 2012 6:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I always give a pass to players with wrist/thumb problems like Eibner

but with that being said, he’s going to be pretty old for his experience level.

Also, Mariot was a “piggyback” pitcher last year which is more or less a sixth starter who mostly gets conjoined with one of the other starters and occasionally fills out the rotation.

by 9il on Jan 12, 2012 4:49 AM EST reply actions

Great info on Mariot

Thanks

by Freneau on Jan 12, 2012 7:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

More on that

Just happens to fall where he falls… if it’s his turn to start, he starts, if it’s his turn to relieve he relieves. All Rookie ball teams do it. It’s a way to get starting prospects enough innings even if there isn’t room to start. That way at least they are close to a “routine”.

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Jan 13, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions

This makes me miss Dubya daily reports on the minor leaguers

April, please hurry up and get here. – LS

by Loose Seal on Jan 12, 2012 10:39 AM EST reply actions

Who's this April?

she hot?

by Bronzillo on Jan 12, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think the '10 draft was a disaster

It doesn’t take much imagination to see picks 1-5 all making the majors sometime between 2013-2015. It’s simply going to be a matter of degree of success.

Colon seems destined to become a super utility, and if you can get past his “#1 Draft Pick” status that’s not a bad thing. A cost controlled player with some offensive potential and can play 2B, SS, and 3B in a pinch is a good thing.

I think Eibner is the best possibility to excel. He’s already shown place discipline and power… just needs to get that contact rate up.

by Discolando on Jan 12, 2012 12:13 PM EST reply actions