Making a Hall of Fame Case for Steroid Users
The Barry Larkin thread got me thinking about the Hall of Fame and whether or not the juicers should be in the HOF or not, so here's my 12:15 PM "I-don't-feel-like-getting-real-work-done-so-i-will-post-on-RoyalsReview" rant...
When Mark McGwire hit 70 homeruns in 1998, I knew he was roided. And I was merely 18 years old. I went to school with a bunch of idiot Cardinal fans that.....
Sorry, I meant I went to school with a bunch of *best fans in baseball*. I argued daily with these Cardinal fans that McGwire was using steroids. Now, remember, this is a time where steroids weren't a big topic. We only had limited information about them and it wasn't a banned substance by MLB. I only knew about steroids because I wrote a Composition paper about them that year (not related to baseball). I will admit I am biased. I hate the Cardinals. I am a Cubs/Royals fan. So I did not accuse Sosa of roiding. In fact, I didn't even think he was. Come on, Sammy was my boy! But everyone knew McGwire was juiced. Everyone in the media did. Everyone in the Cardinals organization did. Everyone in baseball did. This wasn't some sort of amazing discovery I had. I'm not patting myself on the back for it. You don't just take Andro and become that big and that strong, that quick. It just doesn't happen.
In 2001, Barry Bonds hit 73 homeruns. His head had pretty much quadrupled in size from what he was a few years prior. He had biceps bigger than Kim Kardashian's ass. Like McGwire, everyone knew he was juiced.
But here's the thing.....everyone turned their back. No one cared. There were no sports writers whining about steroid use. They didn't give a damn because they had a great story to write everyday because players were chasing records, hitting titanium blasts, and games were high scoring. Everyone was happy.
Then the Feds stepped in. And now steroid use ain't so cool. Now those same writers that wrote stories about how Sosa and McGwire (along with Ripken) helped bring the game back after the Strike are crying foul. Now everyone wants the roiders banned from the game and to never be voted into the Hall of Fame.
And with all of that came the assumptions about who was juiced. It's gotten to a point where we just assume everyone that put up decent numbers from about 1990-2006 were roided. Well, except for certain players that smile real big when the camera is on (i.e. Griffey, Jeter, etc.).
Jeff Bagwell was a GREAT player. Sure, he looked like he was taking a dump at the plate, but dude could MASH. And he could steal a few bases and play a decent first base. He's a Hall of Famer for sure. But he didn't get enough votes because we make the assumption he took steroids. Why is that? Because he was built? Because he hit a bunch of Homeruns?
Why don't we assume Derek Jeter roided? Or Griffey Jr? Those 2 played much of their careers during the "steroid era". Why couldn't they have possibly taken steroids? Oh, that's right, Jeter never hit 50 homeruns. I love that excuse. To which I always respond "unlike FP Santangelo and Fernando Vina, right?". Griffey hit 50+ homeruns and had a shot to break Maris' record if not for the 1994 strike. He wasn't on steroids?
I'm in no way suggesting Jeter or Griffey used steroids. I have no idea. I hope they didn't. My point is that the media has decided who we, the fans, should assume who took steroids and who didn't. And then they base those assumptions on who they should vote for the HOF.
So to all of that I say let's just put everyone in the Hall of Fame. If they had the numbers, put them in. You can't single out certain players that were never caught because you THINK they took steroids. And you can't leave players out that were caught roiding because you can't actually prove the impact of their steroid use. Of the players that put up HOF numbers and were proven to have used steroids, how many of them likely would have been a HOF'er anyway? 90% would be my guess. Barry Bonds, A-Rod, ManRam, etc......those guys didn't need steroids to become Hall of Famers. They needed steroids to put up insane numbers (most likely).
Now, I do understand the argument that they cheated the game even if steroids weren't a banned substance. While I do not condone steroid use in any way, nor do I think cheating is cool.......so what? It's sports. Players cheat in MANY other ways besides using steroids, not only in baseball. College programs bend the rules to gain recruiting advantages.
And let's not forget, since there was such a high percentage of steroid users, it's not like anyone had a big advantage over much of the competition. There were plenty of pitchers juiced too. Sure, let's say a non-roided player with a .300/.360/.490, 30 homeruns line in 2012 is considered a great player, whereas he would have been just a good player in 2000. That hurts his HOF credentials because his numbers don't stack up favorably against the competition in his era. I understand that. And to that I say.....THAT'S LIFE!
The Steroid Era occurred when I was growing up, going through High School and College. I can't just forget the era. I will always love baseball, but never more than at that point in time in my life. If you say the players from that era aren't allowed in the Hall of Fame, you're saying the era never existed. I can't get behind that.
And lastly, Bud Selig (and others within MLB) allowed the Steroid Era to happen. It was almost encouraged. Yeah yeah.....personal responsibility....bla bla bla. I agree. But a lot of this blame goes to those that turned their backs on steroid use. Bed Selig could have stopped it before it got out of hand. But he didn't want to. The game was thriving after the '94 Strike. I think it got to a point where many players began to feel the pressure to use steroids. That's a big part of the reason there were so many roiders. They probably felt they needed to use steroids to keep up with players that were already roiding.
END OF RANT!
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When its all said and done we can’t just ignore what these players did. Barry Bonds, roided or not, DID hit those home runs. Mark McGwire DID break the record. Did they cheat? I suppose that is up for debate. But we cannot deny those things ACTUALLY happened. And to have a Hall of Fame that does not include some of the most prolific home run hitters of all-time (or the hit king for that matter, Pete Rose) seems ridiculous (and even more ridiculous if it includes a pitcher with 250 wins and an ERA closer to 4.00, but that’s another matter).
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 11, 2012 10:08 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
History shouldn’t be whitewashed. Babe Ruth’s accomplishments are tainted because he didn’t have to face black competition, the accomplishments of players from the 50’s and 60’s are tainted because they were hopped up on greenies. Cy Young’s accomplishments are tainted because the pitching mound was like six feet closer to home plate for half of his career. There is no ‘pure’ baseball era, each time period has its stains. We should recognize who were the greatest acheivers of their various eras, while feeling free to lament the failings of those eras. Barry Bonds should be in the hall of fame, and it’s okay to feel a little sad that a steroid user is in the hall. Similarly, Ty Cobb should be in the hall of fame, and it’s okay to feel a little sad that a violent racist who attacked fans is in the hall. Gaylord Perry should be in the hall, and it’s okay to feel a little sad that a guy who used illegal pitches his whole career is in the hall. History happened, it should be accurately represented.
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Jan 11, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
If anything
Having steroid users in the Hall can help bring attention to the fact they used steroids. Isn’t the Hall’s purpose to educate? I think sportswriters get way too caught up in what the Hall means to the players. Its not for the players. Its for US.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 11, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
not only that...there is 1 thing I like to always point out...
THEY GET TO KEEP THE MONEY
these writers and baseball old-timers think they can hurt these players with Hall exclusion…but sorry, won’t take away Roger Clemens’ millions
I am the one who knocks.
Ouch. Give me Paul Johnson.
Anything but that clapped-out Communist. Hell, give me Christopher Hitchens’ dead body. I guarantee it will provide more useful ideas than Zinn or that highly overrated moron Noam Chomsky.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Truth hurts
And Zinn tells a lot of the truth
by Rufus R. Jones on Jan 11, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Nope. I don't buy his main argument
which is that America sucks. He is very good at picking out occasional facts in which America is the bad guy and then generalizing them to mean that all the starving people in Africa is them damn gringos’ fault.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
by Juancho on Jan 11, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Don't forget Latin America.
by Rufus R. Jones on Jan 13, 2012 1:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I disagree with Chomsky about a whole lot of stuff...
…but he certainly ain’t no moron.
There’s a completely non-trivial argument that he is the most brilliant linguist in history.
I'll give you Christopher Hitchens' dead body
…over Christopher Hitchens’ dead body!
batter nine you sucky
Honestly
Because of these types of issues, I’m starting to really care less whether there is a HOF or not.
Glad the steroid era is gone- I know the players felt pressure to use them- I hated baseball during this time.
Ultimately, I don’t blame the players- I blame the media who was all about the McGwire-Bonds-Sosa bullshit, the greedy owners who were profiting, and the idiotic fans that couldn’t see what was happening.
And I don’t care if any of the players from the era get in the HOF. Sorry to the dudes that didn’t use (Bagwell? Jeter?). If it means keeping them out to keep McGwire/Bonds, etc. out, I’m all for it. Fuck em- they (everybody involved) made a joke of the game, let’s go ahead and make a joke of the HOF, too.
by Rufus R. Jones on Jan 11, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions
And Kim
I’m sorry that you had to grow up thinking that shit was good/real baseball.
by Rufus R. Jones on Jan 11, 2012 12:46 PM EST reply actions
I have to agree
Late 90s/early 00s baseball really did suck.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I never said I thought it was great baseball
I said the steroid era just so happened to occur during my prime years of loving baseball. You could have had rosters filled with nothing but similar players to the late 1990’s Royals teams and I still would have loved it.
Just like I think the current era of football (college and pro) is mediocre but I still love it.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
Ah the blindness of fandom
There was no one whose numbers or head size change more drastically than Sosa’s
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
I was 18
…and a die-hard Cubs fan. As a 31 year old, I don’t have such blind homerism anymore.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
I think jealousy played a big factor in steroid use
I have always felt Barry Bonds started juicing because he was jealous of what McGwire-Sosa did in 1998. Bonds was tired of being a great player. He wanted the recognition those guys got for their chase of Maris’ record in 1998. And he knew they were doing it on steroids.
I think a lot of other players began roiding for similar reasons. Maybe not to chase Roger Maris, but to chase playing time from someone that was only producing more than they were because of steroids.
It was sort of a domino effect. And the only way to stop it was for Bud Selig and MLB to step in and do something about it. But they didn’t want to because Homeruns sold tickets. The ONLY reason Selig ever did anything was because Congress stepped in and made him.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
the jealousy is what game of shadows talked about with regards to bonds....
but for the most part i think it had to do with the money…an average player who takes steroids and becomes pretty good isnt going to get much attention or long term fame. it might turn his next contract from 2/6 to 4/40 though…and im of the belief that if given a reasonable chance of that outcome, nobody’s going to say no
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 11, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
you know why those players roided?
because it works. If your job is to be the most athletic performer and there is something that will make you better at your job, literally in some cases (if used right), make you healthier, it would tempt anyone.
I think the wool has been lifted. The arguments that they would have been HOFers anyhow doesn’t jive with me because we don’t know when they roided. We know, kind of, when Bonds roided. But there can be a case made that ARod roided from the beginning.
I have been very outspoken on this issue before. I have seen friends use roids and literally do a few sets in the gym, grab a protein shake, and put on 40 pounds of muscle in 4 months. I’ve flipped thru muscle mag books with roiders around while they vehemently stated every guy in their was roiding, even the tiny guys. There is a growing trend in women, particularly models, using steroids. Go to the local 24 hour fitness. Anybody with muscle I just say, yep, roider. Especially when I worked my balls off for 4-5 years loosing 95 pounds without roids and not looking anything like those guys did in 4 months. I am really ranting here. What I am saying here is:
1. Is it really that unhealthy if used correctly at small doses?
2. Why wouldn’t they do it without a policy if it was so rampant and their families could be rich for generations?
3. Who cares? Put them in the hall and open the conversation.
I am the one who knocks.
Good points
I think steroids, under close medical supervision, could be really good for the game if it allows players to recover from injuries and wear and tear better. But I’m open to the possibility it may have negative effects, I don’t really know what to believe on that front.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I believe you when you say
that steroids help you to put on muscle. What I don’t believe has been well demonstrated is that they help you to play baseball better.
There is a lot of speculation regarding whether the additional muscle helps you hit the ball farther, and we all know that home run totals jumped during the “steroid era”. But here’s the thing: home run totals jumped during the steroid era both for players you’d consider muscular as well as for guys you would never think of as a New Kluszewski. Because the class of players for whom power numbers jumped was larger than the class of players who were buffed out, there had to have been other factors in play than the documented assistance that anabolic steroids provide in building muscle tissue rapidly. Without knowing what those factors were, and without any controlled testing, of course, we’re never going have anything other than a murky conversation about what steroids can do to improve baseball performance.
how is added muscle not going to help you play baseball better?
this is like saying lifting weights hasnt been demonstrated to help you play baseball better
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2012 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
We're talking about athletes who are already well conditioned
and, obviously, already good enough to play professionally at a high level. Have you got evidence that a steroids regimen assists them to move from that high level to an even higher level? Because I’d like to read that.
it's common sense...
steroids will make you reach levels physically that you couldnt naturally reach. how will that not be advantageous?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
So no, it's not common sense
as there are limits to the performance of the human body. You can increase the tension on the rubber band to get the wooden airplane to fly farther — up to a point. Then the balsa wood can’t withstand it any more and, crack, you’re grounded.
Anyway, we’re not chemists. Devil Fingers provides a useful link below, where the discussion can continue without recourse to stupid analogies like mine. Or sophistry.
Combined with quicker recovery times between workouts and increased stamina.
Not everyone’s taking Test1 and hoping to look like a bodybuilder.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Your extreme confidence
in their powers — not in these basic effects that have been amply demonstrated but in their overall effect on results on the baseball field — is unlikely to result in effective deterrence.
More skepticism would help you achieve your stated ends a little better, I think.
Riddle this, riddle me that...
So your effing telling me that the reason Chris Getz can’t hit a ball out of the infield and Sammy Sosa can have 600 homers is due to their natural baseball abilities?
I am the one who knocks.
I'm not sure what your asking,
but whatever it is, you could ask the same thing about Hal Lanier and Willie Mays.
A better question would be...
Why are players risking 50 game bans to take the stuff if it doesn’t work?
I am the one who knocks.
They must think they're gaining an advantage,
just like pitchers must when they wear those necklaces.
But of course for the players we’re discussing, there were no penalties.
How many players do you think are using these days, now that stiff penalties are in place?
Sometimes I watch or listen to post-game interviews...
…and I like baseball players, but I have come to the conclusion that we should not assume that they are very bright.
We should, very much, not make that particular assumption.
I don't think these players are going to fail to get into the HOF
But they are going to have to deal with a good deal of criticism and condemnation and then wait longer than they otherwise would have to get into the HOF. And I think that is an appropriate punishment for what they did.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
you think mcgwire's getting in?
sosa?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 11, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Eventually
At least the veteran’s committee. Time heals. Old grudges wilt and whither.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 11, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
Although there are some more borderline cases – Rafael Palmeiro comes to mind, where I can see the writers keeping him out.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Comes down to how GREAT they were with steroids
Palmeiro, even if he never took steroids, was merely a borderline Hall of Famer. Long before anyone would have ever guessed he was juiced, I wouldn’t have voted him in on the basis that he was never really great. Longevity is the only argument (and 500 homeruns) you can make for him.
Take A-Rod as an example. I still think he’s a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Why? Because most voters will acknowledge he would have been a Hall of Famer with or without steroids. And his numbers are sick.
I think Bonds is left out because he’s such a giant dick and everyone hates him. Plus, he took a massive dump on one of the most hallowed records in all of sports. And he treated the media like crap.
McGwire is an interesting case because he probably never would have been great without steroids. And on top of that, he battled a ton of injuries in his career, which limited the number of games he played in. Then there’s that .260 (or whatever it is) career batting average that will never impress voters. McGwire’s entire HOF argument is his insane power, which can greatly be attributed to steroids.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
RE: McGwire's power
It was pretty real. Look at a picture of him in his rookie year. He still socked, what, 49 dingers?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 12, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
He was roiding in 1989
According to Canseco. Just hadn’t shown physically at that point apparently.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
Yeah, and that's 1987.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 12, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
That's right
For some reason I was thinking he was a rookie in 1989. My bad.
At any rate, the only argument for McGwire was he was an insane power hitter. He did hit 49 in 1987, but he brought absolutely nothing to the game besides power and he played partial seasons seemingly half of his career.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s obviously a big asset to have a ridiculous power hitter like McGwire. But his overall numbers just don’t even come close to comparing to the other players of his generation. With the way MLB HOF voters vote, the ONLY thing he’s got going for him is the 580 HR’s. He hardly hit any doubles, didn’t steal any bases, wasn’t a great fielder, and was pretty much a garbage postseason hitter (42 games). On top of that, he had a ton of injuries and only had 1,600 or so hits (another big stat voters look for, which is ridiculous).
Yes, he did have a monster rookie year in 1987, allegedly without the help of steroids. But check out his insane OPS’ from 1992-2000 (excluding the injury plagued seasons) when he was on steroids. You don’t think that greatly impacted his career power numbers.
I think we all know McGwire would have hit a ton of bombs without steroids. It’s silly to think otherwise. But I do not think he would even be in the discussion for the HOF if not for steroids. His 583 HR’s would have probably been closer to 480-500. His walks would have decreased a ton because pitchers wouldn’t fear him quite as much. That would lead to an OBP of .020 lower, at least. He would have been the white Cecil Fielder. Great power hitter, but certainly not HOF caliber.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
Although there are some more borderline cases – Rafael Palmeiro comes to mind, where I can see the writers keeping him out.
I agree. And I was thinking that perhaps for borderline cases, not getting into the HOF might be an appropriate punishment. If it was a close call, then getting numbers with the help of PED’s perhaps means that you really aren’t deserving of inclusion.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 11, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think the voters should ask themselves...
…..was that player a great player with our without steroids?
If the answer is yes, they should be in the Hall of Fame. Of course, answering that question is merely opinion and not fact, but so is any Hall of Fame voting.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
I think Jim Thome will be an interesting case
He seems like more well liked than Palmeiro, doesn’t have any rumors really of PED use, but he definitely grew in size as he got older, and hit during the silly ball era. I wonder if he’ll get the Jeff Bagwell treatment.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Bagwell has a stronger case than Thome
Bagwell was a better player. Better fielder and better overall hitter. Thome hit more HR’s because he stuck around longer so he could get to 600.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
Thome is in
He was one of the guys the media used to say “hey, not everyone is on steroids!”, even though he became a physical beast between 1995 and 1998.
Here's the argument against roiders being in the HOF
In 1999, this was Palmeiro’s line…
.324/.420/.630, OPS of 1.050. 47 HR’s 148 RBI, 97 BB.
Not only did none of those numbers lead the league……he finished 5th in the MVP voting.
I will say, that right there is what makes it difficult to argue in favor of roiders being Hall of Famers. They did make a mockery of the game.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
expansion played some factor to
overall MLB roster spots increased by 15.4% around the beginning and mid stages of the steroid era. i still think this hurts the game.
There is no such thing as a baseball era without asterisks for achievements
The late 19th and early 20th centuries had to deal with segregation—would Babe Ruth have held the HR record for as long as he had if Josh Gibson had been allowed to play in the major leagues?
The mid 20th centuries saw some careers (notably Ted Williams) truncated by WWII and the Korean War.
Mid-to-late in the 20th century, you had pitchers like Gaylord Perry (who EVERYONE knew doctored his pitches) and Don Drysdale (ditto).
Every era of baseball had aspects of it that created caveats for even the greatest of achievements. The steroid era should be treated with the same grain of salt. No more, no less.
by DarthYoshi on Jan 11, 2012 3:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'm taking a break from Royals Review because (although I love it) I can't spare the time right now
So I can’t really flesh out this argument, but he’s the short version:
Does anybody believe in their everyday lives that cheating should be excused (because everybody will try to get an edge) and we should only look at the results?
If the lead salesman in your offense is poaching leads from other people, should he be honored by the company? If the class that won the can drive at school had several students taking cans from other classrooms, should they be honored at the school assembly? If the “organic” dry cleaners down the street charges more but uses the same toxic chemicals as every other place, do they deserve to be recognized as an outstanding small business?
None of these things are against the law, and I don’t think we need to pass new laws to ban them. There’s no question that these things are cheating, just like there’s no question that people shooting up steroids and then denying it knew they were cheating.
My sense is that most people are not OK with cheating in their everyday life and think the means matter as much as the ends. I don’t understand why sports would be different. We would all have been better off if baseball had cracked down on cheating sooner, so we’d have had fewer cheaters, but that doesn’t change the fact that some people chose to cheat and some chose not to. Why give the cheaters a pass?
by KSinDC on Jan 12, 2012 1:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
offense = office
And I didn’t finish the thought in the fourth paragraph: we know these things are cheating, and social pressure can be effective in halting cheating if we’re willing to use it.
Is it cheating if it isn't against the rules of the game?
Also: should we remove those who used greenies in the past from the Hall, like, say, Hank Aaron?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 12, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think we need exhaustive rules
There are plenty of “unwritten rules” in baseball, and players can be judged by whether or not they adhere to the unwritten rules. To pick an egregious case, it wasn’t against any rule for Robbie Alomar to spit on the umpire. It was still wrong, and he was rightly excoriated for it. I picked the examples above because none of them break any rules/laws, but I think are widely viewed as cheating.
With respect to unwritten rules about cheating, I think if people are concealing or lying about their methods, there’s a presumption that they know they’re cheating. If all these guys (McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, Palmeiro, etc) didn’t think taking steroids was cheating, why did they deny taking them? To me, this is what has always distinguished steroids from greenies (or Lasik, for that matter). Baseball’s norms were clearly against steroids (so everyone denied it) wheras greenies were handed out in locker rooms. I’m not thrilled about greenies, but I don’t think taking them violated clubhouse standards in at all the same way steroids did.
"clubhouse standards?"
that is getting pretty close to character and integrity" sort of stuff — and then if violating those means we question someone’s credentials for the Hall, then what about players like Mickey Mantle who regularly showed up hung over for games? How is that “character and integrity?” There are stories of players on those teams confronting “partiers” about it, so those “standards” were clearly violated, even if in the opposite competitive direction.
And the idea that steroids violated “Baseball’s norms were clearly against steroids” is dubious at best, since the received mythology of the steroid era was that “everyone was in on it” (including ownership and, if the writer is being somewhat self-critical), the media.
Finally, what about anyone who every threw a spitball, doctored the ball, or used a modified bat? Those were much more clearly a violation of actual rules and regulations. I assume you think all such players should be banned from and/or removed from the Hall.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
nice ending of the parentheses, Matt
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
We all live in the real world, where there are lots of things you shouldn't do even if there are no rules against it
I get that because of the way the collective bargaining agreement works, MLB has only limited power to punish players for doing things that weren’t specifically proscribed. The law works that way, and that’s fine
But I don’t see why the rest of us (including BBWA) should be held to that standard. We’re wired to make distinctions between right and wrong without consulting rule books (we see this behavior in all the Great Apes — it’s obviously an important skill from an evolutionary perspective). We use these skills all the time for far more consequential decisions than who gets into Cooperstown. I don’t think it should be transgressive to apply them here.
Well, maybe
I still have a problem removing guys like Gaylord Perry and Hank Aaron from the Hall, but I guess sometimes the work of righting wrongs can be painful.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not interested in removing people
I’m interested in who gets voted in. There are plenty of guys who are in the Hall who would never make it in today.
Nobody is proposing removing all the crappy players from the Hall just because they wouldn’t make it in by today’s standards. I don’t see why we need to pretend that should be the case with regards to cheating
I think that's Klaasen's argument
I don’t agree, as I noted above, but I do think all the no-names that the Veterans Committee put in (after the writers stopped voting in players) would never make it in today.
Sorry for mispelling your name, Matt.
It was inadvertent.
Klaassen
Doesn't the fact that they were illegal count for something?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
I think it adds to the argument that they were beyond the norms of the game
But amphetamines were also illegal, and my sense is that they were far more accepted in baseball.
Should players who used other illegal, non-performance-enhancing drugs
be banned from the Hall?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
My reply's out of order but it's mainly to this:
Is it cheating if it isn’t against the rules of the game?
I don’t think players should be banned but if the writers want to hold them accountable for it, I’m fine with it. That’s giving the writers a free pass in a way but that’s a different issue.
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Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Jan 13, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Cheaters* get a pass if their cheating* didn't overshadow their accomplishments
Right now, steroid users’ cheating* overshadow their accomplishments so they’re being held out, but eventually, the fervor over steroid will simmer down, and most will make it in.
*It feels weird to call it cheating when it wasn’t really cheating at the time since it was implicitly accepted by the MLB. It’d be kinda like calling everyone who uses Ash bats (which give players the specific well-known advantage of having thinner handles and heavier barrels) cheaters when/if Ash bats eventually get outlawed. Or maybe it’d be like calling Tim Lincecum a cheater for his entire career if baseball banned marijuana. Well, neither of those are great examples, but that’s the nature of cheating; it’s a fine line between staying competitive and breaking the rules. Maybe if Tim Lincecum uses a wood bat as a pipe to smoke pot…
Nobody has ever tried to hide the fact that they were using Maple bats (I assume you meant Maple)
The simplest test I can think of when trying to figure out whether somebody is cheating (or whether they think they’re cheating) is whether they try to hide what they’re doing. Bonds was open about using Maple bats, but he went to great lengths to hide his steroid use. That’s probably because Maple bats were explicitly accepted by MLB while steroids were neither explicitly nor implicitly accepted (I think you can make a good case that greenies were implicitly accepted).
If I was trying to gain an advantage and was only concerned with what’s explicitly prohibited, I’d probably start with directional electromagnets buried under the batters boxes. A brief pulse during the swing ought to be enough to throw off the batters timing and weight shift while remaining essentially undetectable. I’d hide it because I’d consider it cheating, but I can’t see any MLB rule I’d be violating.
The simplest test…is whether they try to hide what they’re doing.
I think that “hiding” the evidence is a component of evaluating whether they cheated. Maybe it’s even the second or third most important factor (after looking at whether 1) it gives them an advantage, and 2) it isn’t allowed/explicitly accepted by the rules/authorities) but I don’t think it’s a determinative factor…I think the Lincecum example is a good example of this – he uses pot to calm him down, and it’s an illegal substance, and it’s banned, but most people don’t really consider it cheating.
When all is said and done, I think we’re just trying to define “violating the spirit of the game” and I don’t think there is a simple test.
Except ash bats aren't against the law?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Yeah, it's a stretch of an analogy
But I just wanted to show that we can’t force players to play by the rules or ethics of the future. Let me try it this way, though it’s still hard to describe:
The MLB currently allows players to use maple bats , but they might not in 5 years. Some players already question whether maple bats should be allowed due to the dangers, and others question the advantages maple bats provide. Therefore, some players don’t use maple bats. Nevertheless, many players still use them because it gives them an advantage. Given that the MLB allows them to use maple bats for now, the players will continue to use them until they are prohibited.
In 1995, I could’ve written something similar about steroids like:
The MLB currently allows players to use steroids , but they might not in 5 years. Some players already question whether steroids should be allowed due to the dangers, and others question the advantages steroids provide. Therefore, some players don’t use steroids. Nevertheless many players still use them because it gives them an advantage. Given that the MLB allows them to use steroids for now, the players will continue to use them until they are prohibited.
Baseball may have "prohibited" steroids,
but there was no enforcement mechanism to stop players from using them . So while they said they didn’t allow steroids, they knowingly allowed players on steroids to play without repurcussion.
If I had a better analogy, I’d use it, but it’s really hard to come up with something that we currently allow (either explicitly or implicitly), but will become prohibited to future generations. Maybe chewing tobacco.
Why isn't it enough to say that this doesn't have any close parallels in the past?
So the writers should treat it as a new development, which might require new rules. Everybody saying that keeping out the players with the best stats is unprecedented in HOF history is 1) wrong (see Jackson, Shoeless Joe); and 2) ignoring the fact that we don’t have a great precedent for this sort of widespread unaddressed cheating in the game. As such, it invites a new response, and that’s what the writers seem to be doing.
Yeah, steroids is a pretty unique case
Analogies help me understand things, and even though I can see the parallels between steroids and other things, I don’t expect others to see them quite the same way. I mean, greenies were close, but definitely not the same.
Ultimately, I just don’t see steroid users as clear-cut cheaters when they were playing along-side and against other steroid users, and everybody knew it. If 25-50% of the guys were using steroids (even occasionally, or even if they just tried them and didn’t find them effective), then it’s hard for me to call them cheaters. But if only 5% or less of the players used steroids, then yeah, they cheated, and we have to decide whether baseball’s complacency and complicity in the cheating excuses it. And ultimately, I think they should be excused and admitted to the Hall of Fame as a testament to everything they represent
So should we just remove every stat from the record books
and just pretend the era never happened?
Who do you propose should be in and out of the Hall of Fame from the Steroid Era? Just the ones that were dumb enough to get caught? Or do we just not let anyone in because there’s probably a 70% or better chance they took steroids (Canseco said 70% of the players were juiced)?
You can’t pick and choose who gets in and who doesn’t. So it’s either nobody gets in or everyone with HOF numbers gets in. I would be completely against anything else.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
If we couldn't pick and choose who got in, we wouldn't be having this discussion
You can’t pick and choose who gets in and who doesn’t. So it’s either nobody gets in or everyone with HOF numbers gets in. I would be completely against anything else.
Looks like you need to start your own Hall of Fame since the one you’re proposing to set standards for has been about more than on-field performance since it was founded. If it hadn’t been, Shoeless Joe Jackson would already be in.
Now, you don’t need to shed any tears for the plight of the steroid users. PhattStairs is right that we can’t take their money back. You’re right that we (probably) can’t rewrite the record books.
There are lots of honors that are determined automatically (e.g. McGwire will always be a member of the exclusive 500-HR club) but the Hall of Fame has always been chosen by human voters weighing subjective factors and making human judgments.
If human judgment is good enough for convicting criminals, for electing leaders, and for a whole mess of other things, I don’t think it’s outrageous to rely on it to determine who used steroids for the purposes of determining whether they should go to the Hall of Fame. If we’re going to use human judgment in determining whether the body of work measures up, I don’t know why we wouldn’t use it in determining how the body was obtained.
If I was a writer, I’d vote against anyone for whom we have hard evidence (Mitchell report, govt records or failed test) of cheating. They can have their money and their records, but, in my book, they got them at the cost of being able to make the Hall of Fame. For guys where there’s only suspicion, I’d vote no for a couple years and then, if no evidence came to light, make my best evaluation of their worthiness.
The problem I have with this
is that it alters the emphasis on voting for the Hall of Fame from one of bestowing honoring to one of withholding honors.
The result will be a Hall with inductees we may like better as people but fall short of representing the very best players of a generation. Sooner or later, people will get tired of sanctimony and remember what the Hall is really for.
Is there some dispute that Shoeless Joe is one of the best players of his generation?
He’s not in the Hall. The Hall has never been solely about choosing the very best players of a generation.
He's the one exception,
and his exclusion has since been formalized by rule regarding eligibility.
Looks like we read some of the same columns.
I haven't read any columns on this lately.
I’ve generally been frustrated with columns on the topic. They’re either too moralizing or totally amoral, in my opinion.
Most of what I think I formed in response to reading columns that pissed me off several years ago, but I’ve generally steered clear ever since. I’ve never been to the Hall (although I’d love to go) and much of what I know about it I’ve learned from Posnanski’s columns around the balloting each year.
I think you're pretty reasonable
Having the discussion board format helps (it’s better than pontificating in a column), but you also just seem to have a reasonable, thoughful approach.
It’s not that I have a problem with people who disagree with me. It’s that I had a problem with the way the opposing argument was often made. I especially hate “everybody did it” arguments because we know that everybody who eventually did steroids had a period when they weren’t cheating and, more importantly, because we all live in a real world and know lots of real people and it simply is not the case that we’re surrounded by universal cheating. There’s no reason to believe that baseball would be any different.
Also, I hope I'm not too moralizing
My basic judgment is that the players that used hid it because they were worried what would happen if they got caught. Now, they’ve been caught, and they’ll suffer in the Hall of Fame voting as a result.
They feared there’d be consequences, and they were right. There’s no great injustice in that.
I don't think you're too moralizing
I just think you’re projecting attitudes onto other folks that I find a questionable fit.
For example, I don’t think any of those guys anticipated then the kind of reaction that we’re seeing now. It’s hard to worry about it if you can’t imagine it.
I do think that they're probably surprised at the scale of the backlash
Like a kid who throws an egg at a car and hides because he doesn’t want to get caught doing it, but probably thinks the worst that will happen is getting dragged home to his parents and is dumbfounded to find himself alone in a jail cell.
Or something like that.
But, to me, getting left out of the Hall of Fame isn’t that big of a punishment. The public outrage and persona non grata status in the game is probably worse. But I think those bigger factors operate pretty independently from the writers’ HOF decisions.
If you don't think it's "that big of a punishment"
then why are you so absolute in your prescription to administer it?
Because it's the only punishment that's left
If baseball does nothing, it’s just encouraging people to ignore their qualms in the future and go for anything, no matter how dubious, that gives them an advantage.
And also because it seems just to me. I think that’s part of the reason the HOF waits 5 years before voting — so all of the information can come out. These guys got extra adulation in their careers by cheating. It seems that taking away some of their post-career adulation balance the scales a bit.
So you want to enforce a penalty
ex post facto for a “baseball crime” that wasn’t on the books when it happened, for the good of those who come after.
I’m not down with it. Those kinds of judgments tend not to have their intended results.
What are you referring to?
The ex post facto penalty against the Black Sox seemed to work out pretty well at getting rid of fixing baseball games.
Oh, you're asking about the unintended consequences.
See Posnanski’s piece referenced below.
I was going to call it a column, but it’s a blog entry, not a newspaper column, so that doesn’t seem right. And “blog entry” is an awkward name for a piece of writing. We need something spiffier.
I've said I'd only vote against guys with substantial evidence
Failed drug test
Mitchell report
Govt investigation
The rest of the guys (like Bagwell), I might wait a couple years, but then I’d vote them in if nothing else came to light.
This Is Cool
Shine on, crazy diamonds.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 14, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
Now you've piqued my curiosity
What columns were you referring to?
I wish I hadn't asked.
I used to love Neyer, but I feel like he mails in almost everything these days. His “only used steroids for two weeks” hypothetical makes no sense to me (is there anybody accused/suspected of that who’s been tarnished by that accusation/suspicion?) and I don’t have any idea what point he’s trying to make with Mantle. That he could have been even better? Wouldn’t that still make him Hall-worthy?
That's a little more enlightening
I still don’t really get it though. Is the theory that Mantle was purposely dogging games? Because I haven’t heard that accusation. Or is the accusation that drinking helped Mantle perform better (by keeping away the demons, or perhaps calming him down ala Lincecum?).
Mantle was so great at his peak that it’s hard to believe he was hurting his performance with his drinking (how much better has any man ever been?). If the argument is that his performance was enhanced by drinking, then I’d have to think about that, but for now, I’ll fall back on the idea that he wasn’t trying to hide it, so it’s hard for me to think that he intended to cheat.
His presumption is that Mantle's behavior
lacked character and integrity, with specific examples of habitual drunkenness and serial infidelities. Nothing too theoretical there.
His question is why some kinds of failures of character matter to voters now, when those of Mantle’s — and in fact everyone else’s other than Shoeless Joe’s — haven’t mattered before. He’s attempting to undermine the justification of a Special Exclusion for Steroids as consistent with the criteria of “character and integrity” in the voting rules, suggesting that if voters really cared about character, they’d care more generally than they apparently do.
The character clause only seems to come into play as it affects baseball
If Mantle’s womanizing was relevant, then so would Cobb’s (and Anson’s) racism and so would Williams’ prickliness, and whatever else, but it’s all just a strawman. Nobody is bringing outside behavior into play except insofar as it affects the game. If the baseball HOF some day faces a Ben Roethlisberger type situation, all of those references might be relevant, but I don’t see how they are here.
And as far as Mantle’s drinking affected his game, I can’t tell what the argument is. That it made him worse? Hard to believe when, at his peak he was performing at as high a level as anyone ever has. That is made him better? Interesting, but I’d have to think about that more.
Now
you’re just temporizing. The voting rules don’t say “baseball character”.
Really, the character clause only seems to come into play on the PEDs issue. Other “baseball behaviors” that could reasonably be described as demonstrating deficiencies of character have not come into play.
Which is only to say that the Special Provision has to be justified on other grounds. That’s OK by you, I take it, because you justify it on the grounds that it will be an effective deterrent, since (I guess) you think the penalties already established by negotiation between MLB and the Players Association require supplementary assistance by the uniformly clearheaded membership of the BBWAA.
Sorry, that’s a bit of hyperbole. It’s getting late.
I'm just trying to read what the writers have done
I don’t see any evidence (aside from squeezing a couple guys like Duke Snider on early ballots) that the writers take into account character and integrity away from the game. As best I can tell, they apply the character and integrity clause but only as it pertains to baseball performance. I’m not saying that’s right or wrong, just that it is.
And under that application, all the womanizing and racism and whatnot doesn’t seem relevant to the debate. If people have evidence that Mantle was dogging his games, that probably would be, but I haven’t seen that.
And I'm disagreeing with you
since they don’t take character into account in any consistent or predictable manner even within the constraints of baseball performance.
By the way, I have to stop throwing around the words Special Provision, as if it’s a real thing, especially since I’ve used it to refer to the special exclusion for steroids guys you advocate, as well as to the actual special provision for ineligible persons, in rule 3E as referenced below.
I'm not seeing the inconsistency
Who are the cases who lacked character or integrity in their baseball performance that the writers overlooked? Or the guys that demonstrated extreme character or integrity that the writers overlooked?
And I do believe that denying HOF admission is an effective deterrent
The players obviously care about making it in. Baseball was unable to go back after the fact and punish guys retroactively, but the writers do, and that supplements the deterrent effect of the new drug testing regime.
It also deters future attempts at cheating with the idea that punishment can be made retroactive by the BBWA even if it can’t be done by MLB under the collective bargaining agreement.
The idea of the BWWWAAAAAA being in charge of punishment
is like putting Judge Judy in charge of hearing death penalty appeals. That’s sort of unfair, I guess…. to Judge Judy. That’s only partly a joke. It became even more obvious this season that some of the voters don’t even follow baseball very closely.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 9:18 AM EST up reply actions
Who needs to follow baseball
when all you need is a firm grasp of right and wrong?
Cooperstown, NY, home of the Hall Monitors of Fame.
In this analogy, is missing the HOF supposed to be equivalent to the death penalty
BBWAA is already acting as a judge (just like Judge Judy is, I guess) for who gets into the Hall of Fame. If you don’t think they follow baseball very closely, it seems like you have a problem with the whole set up of the Hall of Fame, rather than some particular issue with their standards for steroid use.
It seems like a lot of people would rather have a Hall of Fame that’s run differently than the way this one has always been run. I’d say that’s a better reason to start a new Hall of Fame than to change this one.
No, that's absolutely not it.
I want the Hall of Fame to be run exactly the way it has always been run. You, by introducing a special exclusion policy that has not previously existed (except possibly for the case of Shoeless Joe), want it to be something different.
Yes, possibly,
because I certainly don’t know what rules pertained prior to the formalization of the “ineligibility” rule. We’d have to go all the way back to 1936 and then try to figure out why, up to the point he officially could no longer be considered under the rules of the Hall — and I don’t even know when that was exactly, as the various permutations of the Veterans Committee have acted under different rules at different times — he was passed over.
Here's Bill James on that topic
from The Politics of Glory, which was later reprinted as Whatever Happened To the Hall of Fame?
At the time (1989), Rose’s banishment from the game did not preclude his election to the hall of Fame. There had always been a de facto ban against the election of ineligible players, but it had never been written into the rules.
It had never before been necessary to write it into the rules. It was unnecessary to write such a rule, in the beginning, because it was considered self-evident. The sportswriters of the 1930s were as likely to elect Joe Jackson to the Hall of Fame as they were to vote to hold their conventions in the nude. The whole idea of putting the crooks of the 1919 World Series in the Hall of Fame would have seemed blasphemous to them, in the main, and in any case if they had done so Judge Landis would have immediately overruled them, and would probably have taken the vote away.
In time, of course, the feelings of revulsion that sportswriters felt toward Jackson, Cicotte, et al., were replaced by tolerance and then a kind of pathetic revisionism. By then, however, their eligibility had passed from the BBWAA to the Old-Timers and Veterans Committees, where the feeling against the jackals was still stronger, and a long-standing tradition of not voting them in had been established. There was little chance that the aging veterans would break with tradition and induct one of baseball’s lepers.
My takeaway: the all-powerful Landis declared them unpersons, and everyone else had, during his tenure, no latitude for revisionism. And by then the still uncodified policy of barring the doors to those the commissioner had declared ineligible was a firmly established tradition. It’s formalization in Hall of Fame rules still later, was exactly that: a formality.
This seems similar to today's attitudes
The whole idea of putting the crooks of the 1919 World Series in the Hall of Fame would have seemed blasphemous to them, in the main
But for the point that
the Black Sox were baseball “crooks” by well-established rule, with their fully unwelcome status well established by an authoritative ruling, while the PEDs guys from the recent but not current era are not like that at all, as much as you want the BBWAA to treat them as if they are.
Weren't the Black Sox acquitted?
And I actually think the rule was not established until Landis was installed as commissioner.
They were
acquitted on conspiracy charges, yes. Which is why I put the word “crooks” in quotes and added “baseball” as a qualifier, because they were branded as “crooks” by authorities within organized baseball on the basis of established baseball rules, not by the legal system on the basis of law.
And the office of the commissioner was invented, and Landis tapped for it, in no small part because the owners decided they needed an authority figure to do exactly that.
As I understand it
The Black Sox punishment was retroactive, imposed by a position created after the fact enforcing rules made up on the fly and based on evidence no stronger than exists today.
Obviously, things for MLB are different today because of the existence of the union and the necessity of renegotiating the collective bargaining agreement in order to bring significant punishment. But those strictures don’t apply to BBWA and I don’t see why they should.
While I don't see why
it’s appropriate — or even reasonable — for the BBWAA to emulate Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis.
All of your analogies to cheaters of various stripes
are logically useless until you can demonstrate that players who used PEDs achieved results they would have been prevented from achieving otherwise, by rule or by custom. “Cheating” is doing something you aren’t supposed to be able to do, such as taking a bus to skip the middle 20 miles of a marathon course. What did PEDs guys do that they weren’t supposed to be able to do? Specifics, please.
I think cheating is determined by intent rather than by results
If you have somebody else take a test for you, it doesn’t matter whether they score better than you would have. It only matters that that’s what you intend.
Sammy Sosa was cheating when he corked his bat even though the science, as I understand it, says that corking doesn’t improve performance.
If you want to know what guys on PEDs did that they weren’t supposed to be able to do, I think it’s clear that the decline phase of the aging curve was significantly flatter for guys like Bonds and Clemens than for their non-juicing contemporaries or prior generations.
And, for what it’s worth, in the analogies, it’s never proven that the poached sales leads or the name organic in the title cause the improved performance. So they’re apropos either way.
OK, let's say that it only matters what you intend,
and from what we know of Bonds’ decision (allegedly) to start using after 1998, I think it’s reasonable to assume that his intent was to compete with the Sosas and McGwires on a level playing field.
But frankly, we are speculating about intentions from the wrong platform, here in 2012. Attitudes about steroid use in baseball were obviously very different in 1998 from what they have become over the last 5 years. Within the game, who knew what was going on? Anyone who wasn’t stupid, and there was no custom among them of evaluating usage as “cheating”. In fact we know of several users were glad to assist others. That’s not really similar to your example of “poaching leads from other people” or “taking cans from other classrooms”, is it?
Also: you did not demonstrate that PEDs use altered the decline phase of Bonds’ and Clemens’ careers. You only asserted they did. Aaron was quite spry up to age 40 himself; outliers appear in every generation.
But, I’m not really trying to talk you out of anything. I’m just pointing out that it’s reasonable not to be as sure about all this as you are.
Bonds' 4 best years were in his late 30s. Nobody else, including Aaron aged anywhere like that
I’m don’t know what the evidentiary standard is supposed to be here, but Bonds aggresively used drugs that help with growth, repair and recovery, and he continued improving at ages where every other player is declining. However spry Aaron was at 40, he has a traditional peak and decline to his chart. Bonds does not. See for yourself. To me, that’s a prima facie case.
And as I’ve said repeatedly, during the whole period in question, steroids were always taboo enough that players tried to hide (including lying in response to direct questions) their use of them. In my world, that’s powerful evidence that they thought they were cheating, even if they helped their friends cheat as well (just as the kids stealing cans did).
Are players
conditioned to reveal much of anything when asked a direct question on any subject? I think for the most part players are happy not to say anything that might challenge people’s image of them. In fact I think they’re trained to avoid it, not by considering carefully the effect of what they might say, but by carefully making only the blandest of pronouncements.
In other words, their communication with the rest of us is mostly bound by custom. No one ever wants to say anything new.
McGwire went out of his way to tell people he was using Andro (which was legal) to throw them off the scent
Palmeiro and Bonds lied under oath. I think Clemens did too (although I can’t remember what exactly he testified to).
At least for the high-profile HOF cases, I think we’re talking about something that goes way beyond Bull-Durham-style question dodging.
What's that about McGwire?
I don’t remember that he went out of his way to sell folks a bill of goods about Andro. He wouldn’t have said anything, except that Andro became a subject of interest when it was found sitting in open view in his locker. And in the response that followed that revelation and concomitant speculation, he took exactly the steps people take when they’re trying to ride something out: he said as little as possible. Do I remember that wrong?
Bonds almost certainly did lie under oath, but to me, it isn’t really clear why. Some legal-minded folks (which excludes me, for better or worse) who have studied his testimony have speculated that he was trying to bluff his way through it without doing harm to his pal Anderson, who was one of the parties under investigation. Anyway, Bonds’ personality isn’t really a familiar type, at least to me; to reiterate what I’ve said below (but earlier) I think we are at a disadvantage when trying to ascribe motives to him.
Palmeiro: Let me start by telling you this: I have never cared the least bit about Palmeiro, period. So I got nothing for you there.
I think McGwire admitted in the Costas interview (or maybe somewhere else)
that he left the bottle of andro in his locker for reporters to see and readily admitted using it. I think he spun this as him being more forthright than other guys (along with his refusal to lie to Congress), but I read it as him trying to throw people off the scent.
As for the motives of all of the rest of them lying to the government, I don’t know and I don’t particularly care if there were other factors that contributed to their lying. There’s a clear pattern of trying to hide the steroid use for all of the known users. The fact that several of the guys up for HOF consideration took their lies further amplifies the case that they knew what they were doing was wrong, but I think the case stands without that element.
I haven't paid much attention to McGwire
since he returned from seclusion. I’d better shut up about him, then, if he has finally begun to “talk about the past” and I haven’t been listening.
So about that WAR chart
While I readily agree that WAR does the job when measuring value, it’s not clear to me in Bonds’ case how good a job it does in measuring his personal performance, particularly in the years when the league, to an unprecedented degree, chose not to avoid attempts to collect outs from his at bats. Every season from 2002 on (excepting 2005, of course) is in the top ten all time in intentional walks — and many of his other free passes not labeled as intentional were nonetheless intentional. That’s got to skew any measurement of value: the league was just not competing against him, with the goal of competing more successfully against the Giants as a unit. I guess everybody thought it was working out OK, because they kept on doing it even when he wasn’t hitting .340 anymore, and the Giants, except for 2003, kept failing to run away with the NL West.
Which is not, not in the least, to claim that his career arc was unusual. It most certainly was. It’s just not the beacon for judgment you claim that it is.
It's not just the walks
Those 4 years are the 4 highest SLG years of his career, by far. Certainly the lack of linep protection contributed to some walks, but I think it would be hard to make the case that those four years weren’t his hitting peak.
I'm not going to argue against that,
but I will point out that 3 of Aaron’s top 5 SLG years occurred when he was 35 or older. Top two: ages 37 and 39. Yes, I know, Fulton County Stadium. But that just suggests that external causes for these unexpected patterns should be considered. In Bonds’ case, are the cream and the clear the only possible explanations? I tend to think it wasn’t so easy; steroids weren’t able to turn anybody else into Barry Bonds, and there were no doubt plenty who tried.
He was nearly the same hitter at age 28 that he was later on — except for 2001 and 2004, which of course were both just nuts. Anyway, I’m willing to admit that I don’t know how that happened. You seem to think you do.
I don't _know_
I very strongly suspect, and, for this case, that seems plenty to me.
Being in the HOF is not some right he’s being threatened with deprivation of. He’s not entitled to any presumption of innocence. The burden of proof isn’t that high, and there’s substantial reason to believe that his numbers were significantly inflated by steroid use.
All of that is beyond reproach
but beside the point. There is no question that his baseball career exceeds the standards of the Hall of Fame. You want to exclude him on special grounds. I agree with Posnanski that the effect of such special provisions are likely to be different from what’s intended, and the result will be far from an effective deterrent to future unwanted behavior on the part of players. It will be a weaker, less relevant Hall for the rest of us.
So we don’t really have to spar about what Bonds knew and when he knew it. I think what you want to do ultimately isn’t good for anybody.
I think excluding Jackson and Rose has been a pretty effective deterrent to gambling on baseball
I don’t really follow the argument that this policy would have a different deterrent effect. It’s not like it could drive the practice any farther underground than it already is.
It’s a terrible shame that baseball didn’t stop this earlier, but there’s no reason to compound that mistake.
The effective deterrent to gambling on baseball
has been the risk of “ineligibility” for everything pertaining to organized baseball, with eligibility for the Hall added for good measure only in the last 20-odd years. That the doors of the Hall are now also closed, in other words, is just a coda to the story that will really scare them straight: Buck Weaver (to name the least tainted one) was never reinstated.
Baseball now has testing for drugs with punishments up to lifetime bans
This would be a nice parallel set up to the deterrent for gambling — even if you don’t get caught while you’re playing, there’s still a punishment waiting after your career.
I'm duplicating myself here
But the collective bargaining agreement seems to make it very tough for MLB from punishing behavior that wasn’t specifically barred at the time. It can change rules and impose penalties, but only on a go-forward basis.
Having the BBWA there to impose retroactive sanctions acts as a deterrent to players who might be tempted to find new ways of cheating that aren’t explicity outlawed.
Making it very tough to punish behavior proactively that wasn't proscribed at the time
is a damned fine policy. Let’s celebrate that for what it is: civil.
Retroactive sanctions are never a good idea. What you think you gain in justice, you lose in integrity, because you can never do it fairly and impartially. In fact, an attempt at it is likely to do more harm to the reputation of the BBWAA than to effect any other possible end, I think.
by 2X2L on Jan 13, 2012 2:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, now you know I'm running out of steam
having typed “proactively” instead of “retroactively” and “devision” instead of “division”.
If you’re in DC, it’s nearly 3am there. You must be using performance enhancers, because it’s only just about midnight here and I can’t keep up.
I've enjoyed the discussion
A nice diversion while I try to update my databases for work. But I just overheated the computer and shut it down, so I’m going to call it quits and try it again another night.
You’ve been a worthy partner, and I think I’ve modified my position after hearing what you say.
This is the crux of our disagreement
These guys were hiding what they were doing. They denied it, even lied about it. They knew it was cheating and they feared punishment if caught. Then they got caught. I don’t see how it’s a miscarriage of justice for them to face some punishment.
The whole point of all the examples that started this thread is that people make distinctions between OK and not OK all the time. We don’t need to infantilize the players and claim that they didn’t know it was wrong since there was no rule written down banning it.
(sorry for posting after I said I was turning in, but my overheated computer just came back on and it recovered this post already typed out)
And I think Posnanski point is well made against people who want to expand/shrink the Hall
But I don’t think it’s very relevant to drawing bright line rules about behavior that will keep players out of the Hall of Fame.
Caught gambling on baseball? Out
Caught using PEDs? Out
Caught committing a violent crime? Out
etc
etc
Judgments about where along the spectrum the cutoff for performance should be placed are going to be very difficult to enforce and maintain. Bright line rules about behavior that gets you barred are much easier to enforce and maintain.
Next on Nightline: Ty Cobb and violent crime
Nah, we don’t need to go there. Sufficient to say that of the three Special Provisions you mention, there is really only one, and it doesn’t actually have anything to do directly with gambling. You are out of the Hall if you are on the ineligible list. That’s all there is.
Rose and Jackson: out
Bonds and Clemens: in by 2020, is my prediction
The last one was a hypothetical
I was thinking about how baseball would handle a Ben Roethlisberger situation. I should have made that more clear.
The writers could vote in Rose and Jackson any time they wanted to (if they’ve got the votes to put them in, they’ve got the votes to change the rules), but they’ve always chosen to leave them out. Now, they look to be putting a new policy into effect (regardless of whether they formalize it in the rules for eligibility).
I think Bonds and Clemens lack of repentance will keep them out, and I actually think the decline in offense across baseball hurts Bonds by making his performance look all the more cartoonish. Clemens is hurt badly by having guys like Maddux for peers. I don’t see either one getting in unless they apologize, and I don’t think that’s likely.
No, the writers cannot vote on anyone
on baseball’s ineligible list. It’s not up to them. See 3E here. That rule was added, if I recall correctly, within a few years after Rose was declared ineligible.
I would have to read up on just what went on from the first ballots in the mid-thirties and afterward regarding Jackson. At that time, I guess they could have voted him in, not that there would have been much momentum toward attempting it.
Which is exactly my point,
by the way: the BBWAA does not make the rules. And it is not their rightful place to supplement the rules. The ineligibility rule is enough of a deterrent. Don’t need other rules for the same purpose that would, I think, not actually help.
But those are rules voted on by the writers
If they have 75% to vote in Rose, they’ve got the votes to change rule 3E.
Not only hide but used designer steroids just in case they ever were tested.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Jan 13, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Looking at it from the perspective of the mid-1990s
If Bonds didn’t think it was cheating, why didn’t he use steroids before McGwire and Sosa captured everyone’s attention. He’s famously driven and competitive. If athletes take every advantage they can find, like steroid apologists often say, why did Bonds need McGwire and Sosa’s home-run chase to convince him to use steroids. He should have been doing it years before if all’s fair in gaining an edge in sports.
The fact that he didn’t says something about how he viewed it.
I don't really know why Bonds did what he did
and I don’t think my lack of understanding of his choices, or yours, is evidence of anything.
Also
we don’t even know that he didn’t use anything prior to 1998. All we really know for sure is that he started training with Greg Anderson after the 1998 season and bulked up between 1998 and 1999 — but what do we know what was going on earlier? Not a thing.
We can't know definitively
But we humans have got a several million years of practice on reading others’ motives. It’s as essential survival trait to living in large groups. There’s no problem with using that ability and making an educated guess about Bonds’ motives. It’s not 100%, but it’s not random guessing.
Again, we ask humans to use their judgment to determine others’ motives in far more serious settings than who gets into the Baseball Hall of Fame. If it’s good enough for criminal trials, it’s good enough for the BBWA.
When it comes down to it
I prefer to reserve the fruits of several million years of evolution on solving puzzles with solutions more valuable than these.
I'm spending an hour discussing the product of those analyses
But the time it actually takes to make the judgment is probably measured in milliseconds, especially for people who cover the game for a living.
I do also enjoy puzzles though.
Fortunately
these guys can stay on the ballot for 15 years, and the electorate will have ample opportunity to compensate for those milliseconds.
Here's my argument for players getting in:
Go out and get the biggest bodybuilder you can find. Maybe Mariusz Pudzianowski, but anyone from the World’s Strongest Man competition will do. Give them a baseball bat. Have Joakim Soria pitch to them. Get some popcorn as failing ensues.
Hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. Not only did a lot of these guys hit for power; they hit for average and were just plain good hitters. Bonds had a career .298 average. That’s not easy unless you are legitimately talented.
Since we're trying to distinguish between guys who are already elite baseball players, that's not much help
Bonds was no doubt an supremely gifted hitter. One of the four or five best ever.
The rest of these guys under discussion were of varied ability. All of them were among the best in the world (there’s only about 3000 guys that get paid to hit MLB baseballs), but we’re trying to figure out who is the best among those. How sure are you that Palmeiro would have made it in if he hadn’t juiced? If Bagwell’s change in body type was the result of juicing (I’m not saying it was), he still would have been a very talented hitter, but, with almost no power (when he came up), could he have put together a HOF-worthy career? Etc etc.
thats a ridiclous point...
added muscle mass for a guy who’s already a good hitter will make the ball go farther/be hit harder. it’ll make your WSM a better hitter as well but he was likely just too shitty at the beginning for it to matter
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
As for the medical/scientific/training elements, I'm not qualified
but this site is a must-read to anyone interested in the topic
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
Interesting post
I don’t have time to look all the way through his stuff, but this seems like finding evidence to fit a conclusion rather than the other way. I have a fair amount of training in biology and physiology, but most of the claims he’s making are beyond my field of knowledge. However some of his statements like
The use of the phrases “upper body” and “lower body” by the medical sources have been confusing to some, perhaps with good cause: I find that most people, myself included, tend to think of “lower body” as meaning “below the waist”, … But in medical terms, “upper body” here is synonomous with shoulder girdle, a more or less self-descriptive termare just false. Anybody who’s gone to a doctor knows this, but you can also click through the links and see that his sources do not use the term that way.
The author
owlcroft, is a regular on SB Nation. There’s plenty of opportunity around here and at his site to evaluate whether his M.O. is to justify his preconceptions, rather than to attempt to examine evidence without preconception. More than plenty.
I don't know the man or his work. Maybe I shouldn't be so quick to judge
My impression was formed from the section on PEDs and performance. I think reading the citations and concluding that doctors use the term “upper body” as synonymous with “shoulder girdle” reflects some motivated reasoning. The alternative is terrible reading comprehension.
If I thought there was a genuine debate over whether steroids improve performance, I might get out my old physiology texts and engage in it, but I don’t think there is. I think this falls in the realm of extraordinary claims which require extraordinary proof. He hasn’t provided it.
Except that he provides references
in which that terminology is used in exactly that way, in the material he references on the differences between the effects of anabolic steroids on upper-body muscles (around the “shoulder girdle”) as opposed to elsewhere. I think your quickness to shut him down on that basis reflects “motivated reasoning” on your part, frankly.
And you don’t have to think that there is a genuine debate over whether steroids improve baseball performance, in the way that folks trying to understand the crazy numbers from “the steroid era” claim, for there to be one. It looks to me as if there is one and you are choosing not to engage in it.
Lots of people believe things are up for debate that I don't think are
People think evolution is up for debate, and try to engage in that debate, but I don’t think there’s a real debate there, and so I don’t engage in it.
This guy thinks there’s a real debate on whether performance enhancing drugs actually enhance performance. I don’t think there is, and so I don’t engage in it.
That's selling him short
as he is discussing a very specific class of performance. There’s no debate about whether it helps build muscle mass, or that muscle mass is very useful for many physical activities, etc.
We are talking about the difference between Barry Bonds of 2004 and Barry Bonds of 1998, and whether the difference can be ascribed solely or even largely to performance enhancing drugs. Not in his appearance, because that’s not what we care about, right? — but in his performance. I find plenty of room for debate about it.
In Bonds' case the actual difference is
that before his numbers took off he had trouble hitting hard stuff inside. That was the league’s go-to pitch to get him out.
Then, in 2001, he started hitting that pitch. He got around on it, he drove it, and it stayed fair. It was amazing to watch. And there was no adjustment left that the league could make, because he never had any other weaknesses. Their go-to pitch became Ball 4.
The answer to the question of how he was able to close off that weakness is the answer to the question of why his performance reached a new plateau. To what degree did use of PEDs contribute? Was it largely the result of increased “upper body” muscle mass?
And were his results repeatable by other players of roughly the same type with similar weaknesses they needed to overcome? That would give us some confidence that we knew what we were talking about.
If he's limiting his investigation to Bonds, I can't tell
He seems to be making claims for all hitters. I don’t think there’s a real debate on whether steroids help hitting.
But Bonds, and a few other cases with Hall of Fame credentials
and also with either suspected or known PEDS use, are what we are talking about, no?
But that's not what his page is about
The question of whether it helped Bonds in particular is essentially unknowable. Maybe Bonds was just (even more of) a freak of nature (than we realized) and he would have fought off aging through his incredible work ethic.
He’s making arguments about whether steroids help hitters in general, and I just don’t think that’s a matter for debate.
I honestly do not claim any specific knowledge about this
but I think it is unfair to characterize Walker as being the equivalent of someone who denies the basic scientific truth of evolution. He has a long history as a baseball analyst, at the very least, and he’s not the only one who holds something like this general position. Nate Silver, for example, wrote something along those lines from a purely statistical standpoint in Baseball Between the Numbers.
That is not to say Walker is an absolute authority on these things. Yeah, he knows far more about the subject that I and probably anyone else here, but that’s true of many things (heck, it’s even true of some “Creation scientists,” — knowing more about a subject is not the same as being right about it. )
I’d like to read more from physiologists. But they are going to have to be a bit more informed about baseball than the guy I just read an interview from, who cited as evidence of the benefits of steroids A-Rod’s increase in home run hitting from 2001 to 2003. Yeah, it was definitely the juice. I can’t think of any other significant changes, like, say, moving from a really power-unfriendly park right before 2001 to the best hitter’s park on the American League, then after 2003 moving to a park that greatly deflates home run rates for right-handed hitters.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
There's no dispute that steroids improve performance in general, right
If steroids improve strength; and
If improved strength improves bat speed; and
If improved bat speed improves hitting performance
Then steroids improve hitting performance.
In reading through his analysis, he basically takes issue with the second and third premises. I can’t see how either
He seems to assert that improved strength from steroids wouldn’t help bat speed or wouldn’t help it that much, but he confuses his terms (see above and below on “upper body”) and makes some logical errors* and ultimately results to making up numbers for a “thought experiment” that’s supposed to prove a point he can’t prove through actual facts.
He also asserts that improved bat speed would only affect power. Indeed, this assumption is the foundation of his entire consideration of baseball stats. However, it seems obvious that improved bat speed would also affect your ability to spoil pitches while waiting for a pitch to drive. In addition, Mike Fast’s recent work confirms that ball speed off the bat affects the number of hits, not just the number of extra base hits (so both Walker’s numerator and denominator of his power equation would be changing, instead of just the numerator, as he assumes)
I’m sure this guy does good work elsewhere, and I didn’t mean to smear him by comparing him to creationists (I originally used climate change as my example, but I worried that would be too political). I just don’t think he’s raised enough doubt on any of the three fairly self-evident premises above. His attacks on the second are based on fairly basic misunderstandings of the science. His attacks on the third are more interesting, but I don’t think he’s looking in the right place to find data that would make me really question the third premise (I would be interested in a comparison of SLG for players named in the Mitchell Report to those not named).
* I accept that a normal player generates their swing power almost exclusively from their legs and trunk. The legs and trunk contain the biggest, most powerful muscles in the body, and a baseball swing is able to bring them to bear. The energy they provide dwarfs what could be added by the smaller muscles further down the energy transfer chain. That does not mean that if somebody bulks up those smaller muscles that the will see no benefit in the total energy output. It reminds me of moms who tell you that you lose 40% of your heat through your head. That’s true, but only if you’re wearing clothes over the rest of your body. If you take off your pants but put on a hat, you don’t stay just as warm. Information acquired in one context can not be blindly applied to a different context.
by KSinDC on Jan 13, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Again, I have no opinion on his specific claims
I just think it’s worth reading.
If by “steroids improve performance in general” means “athletic performance” in general, I would agree with that based on what I know, that’s the consensus.
As for there being statistical evidence that it improves baseball performance in a measurable way, there is not a consensus among people I have read, at least as far as my limited knowledge of the issue goes.
There is some other rather involved stats stuff on this that is beyond me, but here is a piece from the NYT checking up on the players in the Mitchell Report.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
As for the meaning of "upper body"
I can’t believe that there’s a debate. “Upper body” is not a scientific term. It includes lots of other lay terms like “shoulder” and “chest” and is synonymous with other lay terms like “torso.” “Shoulder girdle” is a more technical term (as I learned it, it actually only refers to bones, not muscles) that is included in the upper body, but is not synonymous.
That’s why his sources refer to the upper body and then specifies within that, as in:
“he found the predominant effect to be in the upper-body muscles in the region of the shoulder girdle”from his first cite
Because we've been on this subject
here’s a timely and fun article by Jeff Sullivan, An Incomplete Collection Of Barry Bonds Fun Facts.
Money quote for purpose of our discussion here:
So whether or not Barry Bonds officially ends up having had a Hall of Fame career, it can be said that he had three of them.
He may have been the second greatest player ever
Crazy numbers. Sort of like that IBM computer on Jeopardy.

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