Joakim Soria: Looking Back at 2011 With Hope for 2012

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 12, 2012 10:54 AM EST

Joakim Soria's 2011 season was by far that worst season he has had in the majors. He had career highs in ERA, FIP, WHIP and HR/FB. Here is a quick look at his career stats.

Season	Saves	BS	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2007	17	4	62	69.0	9.8	2.5	0.4	74%	2.48	2.50	3.19	2.40
2008	42	3	63	67.1	8.8	2.5	0.7	90%	1.60	3.25	3.62	1.60
2009	30	3	47	53.0	11.7	2.7	0.9	87%	2.21	2.74	2.90	1.80
2010	43	3	66	65.2	9.7	2.2	0.6	89%	1.78	2.53	2.85	2.00
2011	28	7	60	60.1	9.0	2.5	1.0	72%	4.03	3.49	3.38	0.90
Total	160	20	298	315.1	9.7	2.5	0.7	82%	2.40	2.90	3.20	8.80

Over the course of his career, he was able to post an ERA that was lower than his FIP and xFIP by keeping runners on base to a career number of 82% LOB%. His LOB% was closer to 90% from 2008 to 2010 (90%, 87%, 89%). He may have been lucky over the course of those 3 seasons, but I believe a change to his pitch repertoire caused him problems in 2011.

In 2011, he began the season throwing quite a few cutters. This pitch ended up getting hammered. Here are the stats from the 1st two months when he threw the cutter over half the time and the rest of the season when he threw it 1/5th of the time:

Dates	% of Cutter Thrown	SV	BS	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB	BABIP	ERA
March 1st to May 31st	56%	7	5	7.8	4.1	1.6	1.9	0.354	6.55
June 1st to Sept 31st	21%	21	2	9.6	1.6	0.7	5.9	0.294	2.58

The cutter, which is supposed to induced weak contact, ended up getting knocked around. His HR/9 was over twice his career average. Kyle Davies was even able to put up a K/BB greater than Soria (1.9 vs. 1.6). Soria ended up blowing more saves in those first 2 months than in any previous complete season.

For 2011, I expect the Royals will see the Soria of old as long as he keeps the number of cutters he throws to a minimum.

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Maybe Soria's problem was cutting back his trips to Starbucks

Because coffee is for closers.

by thelaundry on Jan 12, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions 4 recs

Good article

I don’t understand why Soria was throwing his cutter 56% of the time to start last season. I can understand tinkering, but don’t fix what is broken.

by Connor Moylan on Jan 12, 2012 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Don't fix what is broken?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jan 12, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

it is the mantra of the coaching staff

Winning!

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 12, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Obviously, he is a Mac user.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 12, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

I really need to proofread my comments

by Connor Moylan on Jan 12, 2012 4:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

It's OK,

don’t go and fix what’s broken ;)

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 12, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

he wants to be

Mariano Rivera. Seriously, I think he was trying to learn to throw the cutter as dominantly as Rivera.

2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition

by sfeldkamp on Jan 12, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Bob Mcclure

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Jan 12, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

cutter

I believe I was seeing a regular fastball getting hit. The whole “cutter” phenomenon was way overblown to me.

by Monte W on Jan 14, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Jeff, what do you make of the pitch f/x data at Fangraphs re use of cutter?

Pre-2010, it has Soria throwing only fastballs with virtually no cutters. For 2010, it has Soria with 0% FB and 75% cutters. For 2011, it has Soria with 45% FB and 33% cutters. If the data is correct, why the problem with the cutter in 2011 when he threw it with success in 2010?

by Gopherballs on Jan 12, 2012 2:16 PM EST reply actions

For Whatever Reason

He seemed to have little command of the cutter in 2011. Subjectively, I remember him leaving up and out of the zone to the arm side a lot. Soria’s trademark is fastball on the outside corner for strike one , and he was not pitching that way the first half of last season. He seemed to be throwing more fat pitches when he was behind in the count, too. He looked more like his old self after the ASB.

I noticed that Pitch FX identified some of his pitches as cutters that I don’t think were. I never saw him throw a 90+ MPH cutter, but that’s what they called them sometimes. 2-seamer maybe?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 12, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

there was some mis-classification in 2010 with the cutter. It should have been a fastball (sorry, I should have explained it).

Cutters and normal fastballs are close, but you can see here the 2011 cutter has a little more horizontal movement (cutting action).

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 12, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

His numbers from June to the end of 2011 were not Soria at his best, but not bad: 1.043 WHIP, 2.58 ERA; 9.63 K/9 (I don’t know what his xFIP or FIP were for that period).

by kansasjohn on Jan 12, 2012 4:42 PM EST reply actions

Those were about the same numbers as 2010.

He did OK that year.

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 12, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

xFIP by month - Mar/Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sept/Oct

5.37
3.06
2.47
3.59
3.19
1.43

Season xFIP, 3.38, career 3.20

FIP is a little more dramatic, which may be OK if we believe he can suppress his HR/FB rate better than average:
5.08
5.25
1.53
4.31
2.72
0.43

Season FIP 3.49, career 2.90.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 12, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

I don't have (or know of a way) to figure xFIP or FIP leaving out the first two garbage months.

I appreciate the information you provided.

by kansasjohn on Jan 13, 2012 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

FIP has a fairly standard formula

How to adjust the HR/FB rate in xFIP, I do not know – probably divide the HRs in the formula by the actual HR/FB rate and multiply by the league average rate, but I’m not sure.

FIP: The formula is [(HR * 13 + (BB + HBP – IBB) * 3 – K * 2) / IP] + [league-specific factor (usually around 3.2)]. (League-specific factor to translate the number to an ERA-equivalent number.) Paraphrased from: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 13, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions