Email
PrintComments
Perez with 88 OPS+, Cain with a 86 OPS+
The bet will hopefully be close
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
The season is getting exciting already!
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
A little help, please?
Sometime this weekend (probably tomorrow), I’m going to try to crunch those projections into a projected win total, as I did with the CAIRO projections. Does anyone know how I can copy-and-paste the tables in that ZiPS projection into an Excel spreadsheet? No matter how I’ve tried, all of the data for each row gets put in the first cell of the row. I don’t want to have to re-type all of the data I need.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
Take advantage of your local resources
Hire an intern from NYU’s program. It worked for Kramerica Industries.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 13, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
With Open Office
Paste special, merge
Merge delimiter, Space
I only use OO so I don’t know if it will work in Excel
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 13, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Select File -> Make a Copy
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdDZJRXAtSlZmb2s5LWRWcE85TWxNSnc
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 13, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, but when I hit File, “make a copy” is greyed out and not selectable.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
I figured it out
I just used “Download as” and downloaded it as an Excel document. Thanks a million.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Try Download As
My bad.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 13, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Had the download not been available,
you can use the text-to-columns function in the Data menu of Excel. Specify that the “spaces” (or / or – or whatever might be the case) are the delimiter.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 13, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Dan Szymborski, if you're out there...
How do you come up with the defensive projections?
And what is the scale?
Very good
Good
Average
Fair
Poor
Is that right?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
Also, what are the numbers beside the label?
Eric Hosmer Fr/113
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
The letter is range. Excellent, Very Good, Average, Fair, Poor. I use a combination of all the zone-based numbers (and look for consensus), but I’m really only comfortable with tiers, so I go with the DMB method. I have a total zone method for the minors (Smith and I both came up with similar minor league systems as a reaction, several years ago when Sackmann stopped calculating it) and take a wide array of scouting reports into the mix (with minor leaguers, there’s no way to not do this).
Errors is error rate as a percentage of league average at the position – a 120 commits errors at a rate 120% of a league average player.
I’m not satisfied with making a definite plus-minus number as a defensive projection. I do it in cases where I need WAR, as in long-term projections, but I’m very conservative with these things.
by D.Szymborski on Jan 13, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, I really appreciate the info
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's more that Dan is like Asmodeus
I only hope Scott was inside a circle of protection.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
The ease of summoning me is a running joke in a few blogs. Sometimes I’ll be summoned simply to beat down an obnoxious anti-stathead (takes me back to usenet’s prime from 15 years ago).
by D.Szymborski on Jan 13, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
I bet you just have Billy scan all threads
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
Ah yes, the famed Dave Mathews Band method
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Jan 13, 2012 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
I like that there's a 1% chance that Francoeur has a .375 OBP (or higher)
[insert “Dumb and Dumber” link and/or picture]
Seems incredibly optimistic to me.
The Hosmer and Moose projections are very encouraging
Among the starting pitchers, Sanchez was a mildly pleasant surprise, but other than that, yeesh.
Exactly
I think the ratings may overvalue youth and last year’s numbers, but they look pretty good from where I’m sitting. Then you get to the pitchers.
So far I'd say
I’m encouraged by Francoeur and Escobar’s projections and disappointed about Cain’s. I was hoping for around 25 HRs for Hosmer, but the key to his season IMO is an OBP of. 350 or higher. His career projection is very good, but without the power numbers voters look for in a HOF first baseman.
Pretty encouraging I think
Some pretty good offensive numbers overall. Not too much regression from Frenchy. Hosmer takes a step forward. Gio and Cain and Perez aren’t overwhelmed. Alcides takes a small step forward.
Pitching doesn’t seem that bad. Basically you’ll have five guys that are below average, but not terribly so. Certainly it will be five guys that belong in the Majors, just they’d all be #5 starters.
I don’t think this will be a team that struggles to hit 75 wins, I’d say 75 wins is a pretty good prediction for what they’ll be if these projections hold true.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
That seems like a really low K number for Sanchez, and I have a gut feeling Duffy is a little better...
but can’t really back it up with any reason why.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Jan 13, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Sanchez is only projected at 136 IP
which is not completely unreasonable given his injuries last year, his difficulty pitching deep into games, and his four previous season total (101, 193, 163, and 158 IP).
But with any projection system, you need to take playing time with a grain of salt — the rate of performance is what matters.
Ah silly me...
I didn’t even look at innings pitched.
Im arguing with a guy about these projections, he says that they shouldn’t be believed at all because of their Kila projections last year.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Jan 13, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
For the record, it was PECOTA that had the very high projection for Kila
But Kila probably underperformed his ZiPS too. But single examples don’t invalidate an entire projection system.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
ZiPS had it pretty high too
244/.355/.412 20 HR
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Jan 13, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
If we average the starters' OPS+, we get 102
Player OPS+
Eric Hosmer 123
Billy Butler 123
Alex Gordon 122
Mike Moustakas 102
Jeff Francoeur 102
Johnny Giavotella 91
Lorenzo Cain 86
Salvador Perez 88
Alcides Escobar 83
I know that’s not really analysis, but it looks like a team that is expected to hit about average, which isn’t something we have been able to look forward to very often.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 13, 2012 4:58 PM EST reply actions
should have said "starting hitters"
If we average the starting pitchers’ ERA+, we get 89.4 (last season for the starters it was 83 per Fangraphs). Not that we were expecting any better, but it’s going to take some improvement or replacements to get past that.
Jonathan Sanchez 95
Bruce Chen 91
Luke Hochevar 89
Felipe Paulino 88
Danny Duffy 84
FYI, Montgomery also has an ERA+ of 84.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 13, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
And Cuthbert has an OPS+ of 73
as a 19 year old.
Call him up!
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 13, 2012 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
Remember that the average projected SP ERA+ is 96
ZiPS basically think Sanchez is a #3, Chen, Hoch and Paulino are #4’s, and Duffy is a #5. It’s a substantially below average rotation, but not an awful one.
oh yeah, good catch
average projected SP ERA+ is 96
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 14, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
I'm totally pumped the Opening Day start by Royals staff ace LEAGUE AVERAGE
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 13, 2012 6:57 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Best quote about Yuni that I've perhaps ever read:
You could drop $2 million in hundred-dollar bills over the sky in San Pedro de Macoris (each $100 with a Royals sticker affixed to it) and get a better return on investment than Yuni.
by Yodazilla on Jan 13, 2012 10:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
ZiPS really doesn't like Aaron Crow
4.54 ERA
4.45 FIP
And that’s as a reliever. ZiPS sees Crow as significantly below average in 2012.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 11:06 PM EST reply actions
Well, that’s most likely because he doesn’t have a lot to go on and wasn’t really very good as a starter – it would represent an unusually successful starter-relief conversion based on his 2010 play! I actually thought ZiPS would be even grumpier.
by D.Szymborski on Jan 13, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's fair
Even his 2011 numbers as a reliever had some real negatives.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 13, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Apparently
somebody forgot to put a check in the “All-Star” column in their spreadsheet. Such an obvious mistake will clearly skew the results.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 13, 2012 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I like the third Comp. on Chris Getz: Mrs. Lee Judge.
by Steve Hovley on Jan 14, 2012 5:48 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
strong work
at the Royals caravan I attended, being the overbearing asshole that I am, I told Gio that “I didn’t want to see Getz out there this year”. He gave me a sly little grin and said he was “working on it”.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 14, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Getz is gay
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
Who's the most likely recent/current Royal to be gay?
The national percentage is something like 3% of men. At least one of our boys must be light in the loafers. My guess is Crisp, DeJesus, and Stairs, in that order.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I would think that maybe 3% are out nationally, but the actual percentage is 5+. I was thinking maybe Gordon or Giavotella.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Not likely
Maybe. And I’m just spitballing.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt Gordon. Johnny G....just maybe.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
that seems like a weird thing for someone who was deeply offended by 'getz is gay'
to speculate about
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 15, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know, just random “who might be gay” chatter on a message board seems pretty harmless to me. Writing it in the dirty near second base during a MLB game is much more public. And I don’t know if I was deeply offended by it. My recollection was that it was pretty douchey. And the worst part of it was that it wasn’t an accusation or an outing. It was an attempt at a derogatory joke. Gay really shouldn’t be used in a derogatory way…especially in such a public way. That’s what inconsiderate, immature 12-year-olds do…because they are stupid, immature kids.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Where's the line?
Writing in the infield dirt = Too Far
Writing in a blog’s comments = Harmless
To be clear, I agree that you weren’t being derogatory, while Beckham was. Then again, I know nothing of social etiquette or boundaries. I just honestly want to know how far we can go with this…a fanpost? with a poll (no pun intended)?
I was being derogatory
Not that there’s anything wrong with that. I don’t dislike gays, really; I just think some of the more extreme ones are funny.
This country has changed. I was in the Taco Bell in Lebanon, Tennessee, surrounded by Southern Baptists and Cumberland Presbyterians (don’t ask), and these two raving queers, one black and one white, saunter in, just fruiting it up. The girl at the counter served them and they minced out. Nobody did anything or said a word. Forty years ago there’d have been a lynching. No more. Probably due to that subversive Hollywood Jew TV and those Negro jungle dance records.
Gordon Beckham, by the way, donates his name and his time to the American Parkinson’s Association, which subsidizes research into the illness my dad has. I suspect he probably has similar reasons, since it’s not the most publicized of diseases. I also suspect that he doesn’t hate gays, but rather that he thinks some of them are a bit silly.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Comment: The Kinsey estimate
of 10% of men as gay has been long since discredited.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Definitely strong on our hitters
I would take those lines in a heartbeat.
The guys who are projected to hit poorly all have positional value and are very good defensively with the exception of Giavotella on both accounts. If you believe this projection, the Royals should compete in the Central, but for a terrible starting rotation. Also, if you believe this projection is a middle of the road approach you should be excited because there is enough possible upside to think the royals could overcome poor starting pitching and actually make the playoffs.
But it’s hard to have much confidence in a projection that involves so much youth.
I find it highly unlikely only one starter will log 150 innings. Didn’t I see that as a projection? That aside,
by WURoyal on Jan 14, 2012 11:55 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I ran some numbers giving most of the AB's to the starters
With 200 AB’s going to Yuni, 50 to Getz, and 100 to Pena, and came up with 77 wins. That seems like a decent middle-of-the-road expectation to me. I think the rotation will be a little better than projected. I like Hochevar and Paulino, in particular, to beat their projected numbers.
For DIPS enthusiasts
The four projected starters who pitched for us last year (Paulino, Hochevar, Duffy and Chen) each have projected ERA’s well above their 2011 FIP’s. Plugging in their 2011 FIP’s for their 2012 projected ERA’s brings the team’s win total to about 79 wins.
I’m not inclined to believe that all of those pitchers are as good as their FIP’s tho. For example, I think Paulino is better than his 4.69 ERA projection, but not as good as his 3.51 FIP from last season.
Paulino's projection is messed up though.
Because his innings are messed up… because it has him making 11 relief appearances. That should probably make his numbers better, but I still think ZiPs is too pessimistic. Last year, some of the ERA estimators saw Paulino as being an elite pitcher, which I agree, is not correct. However, he’s better than the projection. I think Paulino will end up being above average this season because I think the ERA estimators were on to something last year. He’s not elite, but if SIERA and the like are meaningful, he’s likely to be above average.
As a sidenote, I think it’s interesting that most of the fanbase does not think much of Paulino. Not only do they not see his potential, but they don’t even think about him. The reason that is interesting to me is that he is quite possibly the best starting pitcher on the team right now, which isn’t saying much, but still means he’s being overlooked by too many.
Paulino
And Moore/Yost keep talking about his rotation spot being iffy. I hope they aren’t serious.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Royals fans should be at least as excited about what Paulino did last year
As they are about Hochevar’s second half, if not more. Rany said early and often that Paulino was a great find, and I agree. It would be strange and disheartening if the Royals don’t feel the same way.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
