The lack of a market for Roy Oswalt is one of the most surprising stories of this winter, as teams...

The lack of a market for Roy Oswalt is one of the most surprising stories of this winter, as teams seem to be shying away from a big investment in a pitcher who missed time last year with back problems. There's certainly concern about his availability, but not his performance: In 11 seasons Oswalt has never once been below average, and even last year, working around the injury, he had a 3.69 ERA and an excellent 93/31 K/UIBB. Oswalt has made it easier for suitors by limiting himself to a one-year deal, perhaps with an eye toward hitting a friendlier market after proving his health.
With that in mind, any number of teams become fits, even ones you normally wouldn't associate with high-dollar free agents. A team such as the Royals, with revenue-sharing money to burn, weakness in the rotation and playing in a winnable division, could get a lot of return from a deal with Oswalt that guarantees a certain amount of money but also provides substantial incentives based upon starts. In a surprise, the nerdy guy who spent most of the night playing Golden Tee and drinking Cokes walks off with the standoffish sorority girl -- the Royals sign Oswalt for $9 million guaranteed with $7 million in incentives.

Comments

I have an irrational dislike of Oswalt.

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Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 13, 2012 8:04 PM EST reply actions

Cosigned

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by tiquanunderwear on Jan 13, 2012 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

Cosplay

by OnixConcepcion on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

Let's do this.

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by Crooow on Jan 13, 2012 8:17 PM EST reply actions

So Rany's exuberance is rubbing off on his podcast cohost

Though I do remember Sheehan saying a few months ago that he thought the AL Central was there for the taking in 2012.

Dayton boxed himself in by signing Chen and Broxton. Both project to be useful, but those two 2012 salaries alone get you around Oswalt’s asking price. I still don’t understand the logic of rushing to sign a #4 starter to a 2 year contract, especially when it limits or even precludes the ability to snag someone better when the market develops.

by thelaundry on Jan 13, 2012 9:45 PM EST reply actions

12 wins

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Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 14, 2012 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

But his jokes are so funny

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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

we have the money to sign oswalt even with those deals...

its just a matter of if it makes sense right now and if he’d come here

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

"we have the money to sign Oswalt even with those deals..."

We only “have the money to sign Oswalt” if it is within the Royals budget. I don’t think it is, based on everything Moore has said (and done). Moore had a limited budget and he chose to spend that money on guys like Chen, Broxton, Mijares and Yuni.

I really don’t think Moore is operating without a budget and can spend as much as he likes.

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by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

i didnt say anything like that...

you think that if moore thought that Oswalt was worth $8 million or so and that it’d put them over the top, glass would say no? We’re below $60 M now arent we?

And I used $8 M b/c thats the most i think would make sense for oswalt

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

you think that if moore thought that Oswalt was worth $8 million or so and that it’d put them over the top, glass would say no?

I really don’t know. He might or might not. I’m just saying that in a practical sense, what the Royals can afford depends on the budget and if Glass is willing to allow Moore to to over budget. So we really don’t know if the Royals feel like they can afford it.

And my numbers say the Royals are currently a hair under $59M. For all I know, Glass is willing to go to $70M for the right player. Or maybe he really wants to stick to $60M this year and then do some more serious spending next year.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2012 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

The money is only part of it

If Chen was on a one year deal, they could bring Oswalt in and get rid of Chen in spring training. But he has a two year deal, which keeps him firmly in place. So then Oswalt would be supplanting Paulino or Duffy.

A healthy Oswalt is certainly better than Duffy or Paulino next year, but it is important that those two get an opportunity to prove themselves because they will be around after next year and beyond, when the Royals will hopefully be ready to truly compete, and Oswalt probably won’t.

by thelaundry on Jan 14, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

you're going to cut chen and his $5 million?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2012 8:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think he's saying that if Chen had accepted arbitration...

….then he could have been cut before mid-March and then only owed 1/6th of his arbitration settlement.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

i cant imagine the reaction on here if chen was cut and the royals just gave away 800k

oh wait…nobody would care then…its only when yuni is given an extra 800k or so that it matters

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

You think people would be pissed if they punted Chen to make room for a good SP under those circumstances?

….meaning only that it made the FA signing cost $800K more. The real problem with Yuni getting an extra &800k (or $2M) is that he’s on the team…and will play. If Moore paid $800K to release Yuni right now, I would consider it damage mitigation.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

I'm tired of the Royals paying market value for multiple years

To guys like Chen and Francoeur when you can really only reasonably expect them to perform at or slightly above league average. They aren’t getting multiyear deals from other teams. The Royals have and will continue to need free agents to fill roster holes. But they shouldn’t commit significant money or years to them unless they provide a meaningful improvement over what they have or what they can expect to have coming through the system during the length of that contract.

Would losing 800k on Chen be a waste in that scenario? Sure. But I would much prefer that to watching the Royals send out a gimpy Jose Guillen to the outfield to salvage a prospect out of the 12 million they wasted on him in 2010 alone.

by thelaundry on Jan 14, 2012 11:39 PM EST up reply actions

Dayton Moore hates arbitration

Not 100% sure why he does so much to avoid it, but unless I’m mistaken, the Royals have never had to go to arb with a player since Dayton became GM.

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by cmkeller on Jan 15, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think he usually gets good deals in those settlements. Overall, I think Moore has done extraordinarily well with arbitration salaries.

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by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

And this is the last time to sign international FAs before the new cap kicks in

I’d like to see the Royals stay aggressive on that front while they still can.

by thelaundry on Jan 14, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

I'd do an incentive-heavy deal with Oswalt, based on games started, in a minute.

He’d be a great trading chip if he was healthy and we weren’t in it. Depends on how low he can be had for in terms of guaranteed money, I suppose.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jan 13, 2012 9:53 PM EST reply actions

If Oswalt does well his price will go way up next year.

And the Royals could theoretically move him at midyear and might be able to get a decent haul. I’d say yes. Actually, I’d emphatically say yes except for Chen’s signing. I didn’t like the Chen signing for this very reason—he takes up a spot other people could do better at.

by Yodazilla on Jan 13, 2012 10:52 PM EST reply actions

Have interested teams been able to look at his medical records?

If they have, then perhaps this isn’t so inexplicable. He has a chronic back problem. That could be a smallish thing or a career killer (for the latter, see for instance, Mike Sweeney). If his medical records include some ugly information about degenerative disks, etc. then it would make sense for teams to run away from him.

I’m sure many teams would be willing to give him a modest base salary plus big incentives, but I’m sure he’s holding out for more guaranteed money. If no team gives in, eventually he’ll relent and take that kind of deal.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2012 11:51 AM EST reply actions

I would think there would have to be significant medical concerns for him to not be getting more interest.

This guy has been an outstanding pitcher his entire career and hasn’t had much of a dropoff at all when healthy. His health HAS to be the only thing driving teams away, b/c his performance and contract demands alone would make me think every team would be interested in him. What team wouldn’t want Roy freaking Oswalt for one season at 8-9 million if healthy. A great pitcher and an awesome trade chip at the deadline. Would be an absolute no-brainer if he was 100% healthy, I would think.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jan 15, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

I'd bet that has a LOT to do with it...

in that teams have access to health/medical reports we don’t. In recent years, guys like Ben Sheets got $10M for their own one year deal. Oswalt would have otherwise seemed like a lock for a one year $10Mish deal by now.

Nick Swisher and Johnny Giavatella deserve treats in the Kaufmann parking lot.

by ChrisCEIT on Jan 15, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

The fact the market is so deflated on him

Is a bit worrying.

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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 16, 2012 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

I think a lot of teams (KC included) are waiting until player arbitration is concluded before

they go after guys like Oswalt and even Edwin Jackson. DM is probably waiting to see how much money he has after they settle all their arbitration cases. if he can still pry another $8 million plus incentive money from Glass’s wallet, then i could see him making a big push for Roy O.

Problem is, other teams with deeper pockets might jump in for Roy O when they arbitration dust settles. so maybe taking a gamble and making a push now could land him at his cheapest point.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 15, 2012 12:22 PM EST reply actions