Dayton Moore, Get Brian Cashman on the Phone. Trade Soria for Burnett and Hughes.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 16, 2012 3:50 PM EST
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Note: While I am in the middle of writing this article, I find that Matt Connor of SBN posts a similar articlelooking at trading Billy Butler for Phil Hughes.
With the Yankees trading for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda this past weekend, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett look to be the odd men out of the Yankees rotation. With the Yankees having an excess of starting pitchers, I propose the following trade with the Yankees.
Kansas City gets:
- A.J. Burnett
- Phil Hughes
New York gets:
Why I think this trade works for both teams:
Kansas City's Perspective:
- Kansas City is shallow on starting pitching and any help would be greatly needed. The Royals get two starting pitchers that they have control of for the next 2 years as some of their young pitchers develop. While neither pitcher is lights out, they have had better season than any starter currently on the Royals staff.
- A.J. Burnett's best run with the Yankees came when the Royals new pitching coach, Dave Eiland, was the Yankees pitching coach.
- The Royals have a little salary flexibility now and can be able to absorb Burnett's $16.5M salary. The Yankees may have to throw in some cash (around $5M to probably) to make the deal work.
- They are buying low on Hughes and Burnett.
- The Royals bullpen in a strong point and their are plenty of young relievers ready to join.
- With Freddy Garcia already signed, they have their 5 man rotation set for the season.
- The Yankees are going to need to replace Rivera a some point and Soria could easily be that guy.
- Yankees are buying low on Soria.
- No more A.J. Burnett.
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Trade proposal = Jack Marsh Approved!
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
by Jack Marsh on Jan 16, 2012 3:53 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Royals rotation
Who are you proposing gets left out of Royals rotation?
Probably Duffy/Paulino.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
I don't like this idea
on the surface, but if that’s the plan then I really hate it
by kcgregory on Jan 16, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
???
Was there some other combination of pitchers going to AAA that would have made you happier?
Because there’s no real alternative to Duffy/Paulino, is there?
I guess I just simply hate it then
Why jettison our two most promising pitchers for two more expensive ones who won’t get us over the top
by kcgregory on Jan 16, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
eh...
Duffy might benefit from some time in Omaha.
I’m not sure about Paulino’s status re: options/likelihood of clearing waivers (if necessary), etc. If losing Paulino is a realistic possibility, maybe I could get worked up about that.
In context, however, “jettison” seems like an overstatement.
And, “most promising” is basically a synonym for “least proven” in that sentence.
I’m not too excited about acquiring AJ & Hughes, but that really has nothing to do with Duffy or Paulino…
Nothing to do with?
Maybe I’m missing the connection but I would figure any pitcher added to the rotation kicks out someone else, which means the young guy (Duffy) or inexperienced (Paulino). With Hoch, Sanchez, and Chen guaranteed spots I can’t see Dayton paying 10+ to Burnett to NOT play so then you have 1 spot for Hughes/Duffy/Paulino/Monty/Teaford/Oswalt/Jackson.
Ok, maybe I got optimistic at the end of that.
by ChiefRoyal11 on Jan 16, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Did you miss the part...
…where I said sending Duffy to Omaha might be a good thing?
Since that’s not a bad thing in my mind, having to do it wouldn’t prevent me from acquiring some other pitcher. I’m just not too excited about that pitcher being AJ Burnett. In other words, AJ Burnett is the reason I don’t want AJ Burnett. Danny Duffy is not the reason I don’t want AJ Burnett.
I tend to concur on this matter.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 17, 2012 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
Still offended
I still get offended when we talk about trading Soria. I know we have Kelvin Herrera in the wings but I just hate so see another guy leave. It’s destined to happen, like a bad marriage but still, I can’t explain to you why I love her, I JUST DO!
by MVP-Gordon on Jan 16, 2012 3:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
there's also this guy Gregg Holland....
you know, they guy who is going to set up Proven Closer Turned Set Up Man Jonathan Broxton, despite being better than Broxton and probably Soria, too.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 16, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
It's all true
Like I said, in denial. Interestingly enough, I’ve never liked Soria’s stuff. He get’s banged around a lot in MLB 11 The Show. Do you think Holland is a guy we are willing to hang on to and continue to develop to let a proven guy like Soria go?
It's simple.
Soria is worth more because he’s a proven closer. It doesn’t really change things much just because Holland is a better pitcher. But yes, they will hold on to Holland, I think because they have him under control for quite a while.
So Soria gets banged around in MLB 11, huh?
im flabbergasted right now...
do you really not like soria b/c he isnt good on a video game?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 16, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
No, it was completely a joke.
I have no idea how that was taken seriously. Have you met Royals fans the delusional?
Something Called Regression May Happen to Holland
Maybe you’ve heard of it.
by WestCoastRoyal on Jan 17, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
falling in love with your own players
to the point of losing objectivity, has been the undoing of many a GM.
I get the gist of the argument, because I can't stand...
this constant offering up of trades because
1. who knows what the GMs are thinking
2. can I just enjoy the player while their here rather than wanting to ship them out first chance? (fandom)
however, we all love to play out scenarios in which we are the GM and it is a useful tool to discuss pro baseball, still…
can’t stand when espn runs a poll on who will win the National Championship in 2013 before the one in 2012 has been played…we are now in a constant “What’s Next?” culture
I am the one who knocks.
From a fans perspective, it is always more fun to have home grown players
When I think what it would be like to be a yankees fan, it never seems that appealing.
They win a whole lot, but most of their players have been won at auction or received in exchange for prospects. I think I read last year that they had something like 11 former 1st round picks on the team, but only one was from their own system….If we had ponied up for Pujols, I can honestly say, I wouldn’t be super excited (though I wouldn’t have hated it).
Now, obviously I am VERY biased so I am unable to be completely objective, but the reason I brought up the yanks is in reference to them just trading away uber prospect, Montero for PIneda. To me, it was a very smart trade that made them much better now and in the long run. This seemed to be the general opinion I got from the major publications and blogs alike.
But when I went to the NY blogs, the feelings were different. The feeling about it was not nearly as rosy. Most seemed so infatuated with Montero turning into the next Posada (except with Miguel Cabrera’s bat), that they didn’t like the trade. My point being that maybe they lost their objectivity in their love affair with Mr. Montero.
It's the truth.
I was fortunate enough along with many more today that got to meet Billy Duffy and Monty tonight. I felt like especially Duffy was very grateful to be around fans and hear compliments.
I hope we can continue to grow guys in our own Farm System who enjoy being Royals as much as we love watching them.
I am jealous
It must have been fun to meet those guys before they are corrupted by money and fame. Johnny Damon at 21 was humble, polite and appreciative when I met him.
10 yrs later he was on Letterman bragging about how many women he cheated on his wife with.
…Im just kidding. they don’t all turn out like that. Randa was always a class act…Many others
If you were married to that woman, you wouldn't be humble.
Not saying DeJesus isn’t humble, but it would be impressive if he still is.
Are you saying that somehow, despite having a smokin hot GF,
you have managed to remain modest and unassuming?
Your opinion of her isn’t humble. If that counts for anything.
Dude, you met Billy Duffy from the Cult?!?
Did you ask why Ian Atsbury is such a jerk?
I met Astbury many years ago...
…and even mentioned it in an OT thread around here recently.
He didn’t seem like a jerk then. Also, he was too stoned to speak.
I understand that he's very cool to the public
But has an artist’s temper. That’s cool for you though. I love the Cult.
I really like this idea.
I think the front office is looking to add a pitcher or two still. I do not think we are standing pat, unless nothing is done in the next month or so. I think that the team recognizes that we need to fill the starting pitching hole, and I think this would be a good way to do so.
Luke Hughes had a down year, but he was terrific in the two previous years. Dave Eiland knows both of these pitchers well, and I think that’s a good thing if we want to trade for these guys.
If any of the younger pitchers do well in AAA, we can trade Burnett for prospects.
However, we may need to add in a B prospect in order to make the deal work. I think that Soria + B prospect (Maybe Chris Dwyer) could get it done.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
On second thought...
I think that we’re better off just trading Soria for Hughes straight up.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
^This.
i was gonna post this below. but Jack beat me to it.
by DickHowser4ever on Jan 16, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Phil Hughes, Yankees agreed to 1 year contract
I feel good about that signing! Country Boy rumors, no longer a worry on my behalf! BB belongs in KC..especially for this season. I just want the season to start :) and don’t want anymore trades for now. We should be ok, with what we have now. Soria will be wi KC as well, don’t think he will be traded. I’ve ask before, does it matter if “Soria” contract has “no trade clause” written on his contract? If the Royals wanted to trade him, don’t they need his permission first? I see Soria, playing with KC this season.
No doubt, there are so many guys with better upside than Chen out there still.
The Rays haven’t made a trade. Neither have the Braves. Wandy and Myers are still in Houston. Dempster or Garza in Chicago. Oswalt hasn’t signed. Neither has Jackson. Even Jon Garland or Brad Penny might be interesting. Hell, gamble on Harden or Webb.
2 year/$20 million
Who wants to bet Dayton’s already made the offer!?
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
Francis is probably holding out
Knowing Dayton will make it a 3-year deal for $30 million.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
by Kim DeJesus on Jan 16, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
this chen part is accurate
though i’m not sure why burnett is attractive in the least bit
I have never liked him as a pitcher
I blame it on a bad experience having him on my fantasy team
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
This strikes me as terrible
Are Burnett and Hughes even upgrades over what we have now?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Maybe Hughes.
Not Burnett, now that I think about it a little more.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
ZIPS
Hughes 4.84 ERA
Burnett 5.32 ERA
About as good as Nate Adcock or Luis Mendoza.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If we're going to trade Soria
I’d rather get something akin to the Nestor Molina deal.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I know Burnett is a huge gamble, but Hughes projection will be off from his first 3 starts
when he had a near 14 ERA, BB/9 > K/9.
It is a chance, but one I feel the Royals need to try to make.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 16, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm okay taking a gamble on Hughes
I just don’t think you trade Soria for him.
And Burnett should be kept far, far away from here. He has no business being here.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think a team could get Hughes by just eating enough of Burnett's salary
save Soria for Montero
No way we trade CRob
Simply got too much invested in him. Trade Butler and Hosmer, CRob can play 1B AND DH.
by Rufus R. Jones on Jan 17, 2012 9:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm sorry Jeff
But I think this trade is a hugely bad idea. Huge gamble, sure—like betting on the Astros to win the World Series next year.
Let’s look at this in terms of WAR:
2011: Burnett 1.5, Hughes 0.7
2010: Burnett 1.4, Hughes 2.5
2011 Royals Rotation: Paulino 2.6, Francis 2.6, Hochevar 2.3, Chen 1.7, Kyle Davies 0.7
The rotation that you’re looking to “upgrade” is at or better than both pitchers 2011, including the insufferable Davies. Four of those 5 Royals were better than Burnett’s 2010 and two of them were better than Hughes’ 2010, which is a career high for him.
Now I’m looking at two years here, but past that is not a lot of awesome. Since 2008, Burnett’s WAR has dropped every year and has given up more HR/9 every year; he looks every bit like the aging pitcher. In parts of 5 years with the Yankees, Hughes’ WAR high has been only 2.5 and has had a widely varying strikeout rate; he looks no better in the long run than any of the Royals’ other pitchers who would also likely be better in the short term. Short analysis, sure, but why is this a good move?
by Yodazilla on Jan 16, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
This is parody right?
The Royals have a little salary flexibility now and can be able to absorb Burnett’s $16.5M salary. The Yankees may have to throw in some cash (around $5M to probably) to make the deal work.
The Yanks would have to pay all the salary to get even a token minor leaguer right now.
I feel like you’re putting us on.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I would like this deal way more,
if the Yanks were willing to take on all of Burnett’s, hope for a comeback/breakout from him and then try to flip him for a prospect at the deadline.
Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell
by Dr. van Strijcker on Jan 16, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
*salary
Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell
by Dr. van Strijcker on Jan 16, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
What kind of world is it
where the Royals have more payroll flexibility than the Yankees?
The world will definitely end in 2012 now!
"Yeah, the maple kind, right?"
Shocked to discover that Phil Hughes really does only have two more years of club control
I like Hughes, but his secondary stuff has never really blossomed. This has resulted in problems against lefthanded hitters.
Career v. LHB: 7.37 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 1.78 K/BB, 1.27 HR/9, 4.76 FIP, 4.57 xFIP
Career v. RHB: 7.63 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.39 K/BB, 0.88 HR/9, 3.52 FIP, 3.98 xFIP
I certainly like the idea of cashing in Soria, but I am not that excited about Hughes (or taking part of Burnett’s salary even if for only two years).
FanGraphs
I was looking at Grienke stuff the other day, and the same story could have been told about him before 09’. However, his fastball location was phenomenal for several years even when put against guys like Cliff Lee and Justin Highlander. There can be only one.
Greinke had a plus curve since his MLB debut in 2004
and his changeup was only a little below average per Fangraphs. Greinke was also solid against lefties before 2009 and was legitimately good against them in 2008.
it's unhittable
He only had problems when hitters realized that and started laying off it altogether.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
Here's a better idea:
We could sign one of Saunders/Oswalt, Keep Soria, have an extra spot in the rotation, and not have to worry about AJ Burnett or his salary!
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
Right
If you’re going to get a league average pitcher like Hughes, why not just spend some money and get a FA? The market seems deflated for mediocre pitchers.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And then trade two B prospects for Hughes if we have to.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
I like this idea
all Royals home games are moved to Wilmington
by Gopherballs on Jan 16, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
"I want to see the screen door factory!"
by Gopherballs on Jan 16, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Brock Wilmington?
Yes, his FB hits 104, but he can’t get the knuckler to wobble like he did in Junior High.
by Bronzillo on Jan 16, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Starters for 2012
The way I see it, in no particular order, the starters are:
Sanchez
Hochevar
Paulino
Chen
Crow
Duffy
Teaford
Montgomery
I Envy You
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 17, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Doesn't jack have a No-trade clause
that includes the yanks?
Yea, its just for negotiation purposes
So he can get more money.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Last time this came up
he said he would be willing to waive it to go there. And he said it a little too eagerly if I recall.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
Is this an...
…April Fool’s Joke foisted on us mid-winter? This is just a terrible idea. Trade a bright shining star (Soria) for an overpriced, underperforming veteran starter (Burnett) and a young hardthrowing guy (Hughes) that’s no better than the talent we have coming up.
Were you paid, Zimmerman, to write this? Terrible. – TL
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
I kept fumbling...
…with my mouse in the hopes of finding a newly installed “UNREC” button near the bottom of the post.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
If you think it's a bad idea, that's fine.
But I don’t think you’re seeing the logic in the idea, which isn’t allowing you to properly evaluate it. I personally disagree with the deal because I don’t think our salary should expand for Burnett and I don’t think Hughes deserves any optimism. However, trading a closer that is getting more expensive for a starting pitcher is always something to consider.
I still have confidence in Soria as a great closer
I’m not worried about last season. It happens to darn near every reliever. Plus, he was very good for half the year.
I don’t like trading Soria because I think he will be a valuable asset once we become a contender. It doesn’t make sense to trade away key pieces this year. Why not just be active next offseason in acquiring starting pitching? I firmly believe this organization heading into next year will be 1 starting pitcher away from dominating the division in 2013. Take Soria away and now we’ll be in need of a closer.
If you can convince me that Broxton will be a reliable closer for us the next couple of years, then go ahead and trade Soria. I’m just not certain he can
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
"Plus, he was very good for half the year."
1st half – 37 games, 4.03 era
2nd half – 23 games, 4.03 era
what happens if you do something besides randomly pick a point...
say half of his innings, or appearances, or half of the season?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 16, 2012 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
not sure
I used the most common half way point. The AS break. I only looked in the first place because it seemed to my memory that we all thought his early season troubles were behind him and then they cropped up again late.
I will do that if you don’t post it first
I didn't say first or 2nd half...
I said HALF of the season….
I don’t have the numbers in front of me nor am I going to look it up but he had chunks of the season where he pitched very well.
"Poker, poker, it's all skill. Start with the worst hand and go uphill" - Mike Matusow
by Kim DeJesus on Jan 16, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Why spend $20MM on two mediocre pitchers when you can sign an ace (5-6 WAR pitcher) for that money?
Then promote a prospect (Duffy/Monty) type who will give you 1 or 2 WAR for $400K. You’ll end up with 6-8 WAR for $20MM instead of 3-4 WAR for $20MM.
which Ace are we signing?
If this were an option AND you could get the Ace to consider KC that would be a much better option.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
Right, why spend $20MM on two pitchers who will give you 3-4WAR,
when you can have Duffy and Monty give you 2-3WAR for $1MM?
It seems like Burnett is being undervalued
His WAR/IP for his career is 0.017. Over 200 IP that is 3.4 WAR. If you take out his last two years, which look more like abberations than regresions (IMO), he’s 0.019, or 3.8 WAR over 200 IP.
I don’t know that I would trade Soria for him, but I would definitely gamble on him, and would expect a huge drop in his HR/FB rate that increased after they moved into the new Yankee Stadium that plays like a whiffle ball field.
Burnett's splits
show that his ERA, WHIP, FIP, and xFIP were all significantly lower at Yankee Stadium than on the road for the past two years.
so we will only use him when we play in New York
or maybe we should get him and trade him to the BoSox, using the same argument
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Why would his last two years be aberrations rather than regressions?
He’s 35 years old, he ain’t getting younger. And that’s a lot to give up both in talent and money to find out if it was merely an aberration.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The biggest difference in the past two seasons is his Zone%. His walk rate hasn’t changed, which means he was falling into hitter’s counts. That is more of a mechanic/mental issue.
Well, I don't know what Zone % is and why it matters, but
His K% in 2009-2011 is significantly down from his 2004-2008 rates, and his BB% is slightly up for the same years.
His FB velocity (92.7MPH) is down over 2 MPH since 2008, and the velocity on his changeup and curveball is up over 1MPH (82.6 and 88.2 MPH).
2009: 94.2 MPH
2010: 93.1 MPH
2011: 92.7 MPH
Also, he throws the fastball less every year. In 2009, it was 64.1% of his arsenal. In 2011, that was down to 39.9%.
Also, in 2009 he was 32. Next year he’ll be 35.
I think you’re making a lot of unwarranted assumptions.
Also, regarding your earlier comment, WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat. For five years, he was something just shy of a 3 rWAR (4 fWAR) pitcher. Then for the last 2 years, he was something south of a 1rWAR (1.5 fWAR) pitcher.
I don’t see how you reasonably project that to a 3.8 WAR next year. It seems you have to abuse the stat a little to come to that conclusion (WAR per IP? Really?).
I don't like it
If you’re going to balloon our payroll, I’d rather risk it on players like Edwin Jackson and a year of Roy Oswalt. Burnett is spent and Hughes doesn’t do much for me. Plus if Crow moves to the rotation like D-Moore has suggested he will, we’ll need Soria’s live arm in the Pen. If you’re bent on trading Soria, do it for a young arm with upside. You throw that same money at Jackson/Oswalt and you’re 2012 rotation looks something like this:
R. Oswalt
E. Jackson
L. Hochever
J. Sanchez
B. Chen/ Paulino
Send Duffy back to AAA to gain some confidence and let him and Montgomery battle it out for the spot whenever someone gets injured. That’s a rotation that could have us competing for a division title.
Hopefully your rotation in 2013 looks like this:
E. Jackson
L. Hochever
B. Chen
D. Duffy
M. Montgomery/J. Odorizzi
Again with Crow and Paulino as insurance this rotation should hopefully be able to compete for years forward.
Don't Forget Teaford
He has been fantastic in winter ball and should be the front-runner for the #5 spot. He makes way less than Hughes and Burnett and would probably put up equal or better #’s. That allows Duffy more time in AAA. Then in 2013, if Hoch, Chen, Sanchez or Paulino have trade value, we can swap them and promote Duffy, Montgomery, Odirizzi, Lamb who will have had ample time to develop.
KC’s rotation should be decent being that our bullpen is loaded with great arms and deep. If our starters can throw 6 decent innings on a consistent basis, we should be able to compete in not only the AL central, but the AL. Soria should have a comeback year— doesn’t make sense to trade him after a down year., imo.
by Esteban Silvani on Jan 16, 2012 7:13 PM EST reply actions
I'm pretty sure Duffy is the front runner for the 5th starter spot
….or maybe even the 4th starter spot, with Paulino considered the 5th starter by Moore/Yost. Teaford is SP depth that probably won’t embarrass you, but that’s about all.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2012 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
Got to see Teaford, Crow and Coleman from the Royals Caravan today.
All of them might not make the opening day roster.
Go Royals!
Teaford is underrated...
I hope he comes in to Spring Training and forces himself on the roster. IIRC he was pretty damn decent out of the pen last year and in the minors starting, he was even better.
if by pretty damn decent you mean below replacement level, then yes
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 16, 2012 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
he had a nice shiny ERA but unless you expect him to continue to have a crazy low BABIP
and a crazy high strand rate, then there was quite a bit of luck involved more than likely
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 16, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
I say if you are of the mindset to trade Soria
try making him a starter. That way, if it works out, you have another starter, if not, put him back in the bullpen and then maybe trade him.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I don't like it
I’m all for moving Soria, but not for this. The upside coming from Hughes and Burnett doesn’t come close to Soria. Best case long term scenario is Burnett rebounds to a middle of the rotation guy and Hughes figures it out to become another middle of the rotation guy IMO. While that’s very valuable to have, I don’t think it makes up for what Soria can do and I certainly think we could get something better.
I liken this to a trade I made with my fantasy baseball team last March. My pitching was thin so I traded the #6 overall pick in our dynasty draft for John Lackey and Jeff Niemann. I could have drafted Hoz but wanted two solid pitchers who I could rely on for my staff, and they were both cut by Memorial Day. I just think we could do better than two middle of the road SPs (at best, IMO) for Soria.
I think Hughes is a bad season away
From being non-tendered
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 17, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
I find it sad that we won't be able to Adcock to any game this year
We should trade for Vance Worley.
Why did they decide to Subtractcock to AAA this year?
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
by Jack Marsh on Jan 17, 2012 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because he's not ready to be a big league pitcher.
He wasn’t ready last year, but being a rule 5 guy, he had to be on the 25 roster all year. I think it says alot about him though that they continue to protect him and are trying to make him a starter.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 17, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
I don't like this idea
I think Soria is stil a fairly valuable trade chip. Burnett doesn’t project well and he’s quite expensive (even with the Yankees kicking in $5M). Hughes is decent but iffy, and he only has two years left.
I’d rather keep Soria than get this kind of return for him.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 11:11 AM EST reply actions
This is quick and dirty
But I think this trade would mean swapping (all values are a total for the next two years)
Soria, $14M, 3.5 WAR
for
Burnett, $25M, 3.2 WAR (after the Yankees eat $8M of his remaining contract, which they are reported to be willing to do)
and
Hughes, $7.7M, 3.8 WAR
So that is:
$14M for 3.5 WAR = $4M per WAR
vs.
$32.7M for 7 WAR = $4.7M per WAR
The Yankees are getting the better end of that deal. Now one could argue that $4.7M per WAR is a better deal than the Royals are likely to get for a SP (or two) on the FA market and that’s quite possibly true. But that $14M for Burnett is really wasted money. IMO, with the pitchers the Royals have, they’ll have no trouble coming up with some 1.5-1.7 WAR SP’s, so Burnett would just be replacing another pitcher who would provide the same production for league minimum. Hughes would be an asset, but not enough to justify a Soria trade.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 11:27 AM EST reply actions
I'll eat my hat if Burnett and Hughes produce 7 WAR over the next two years.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 17, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
Not that I'm criticizing your projection
Its entirely possible, I just think Burnett is about washed up.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 17, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I was trying to be reasonable and not just assume that Burnett is worthless...although he might be
For the sake of argument, I guessed:
Burnett 1.7 and 1.5 WAR
Hughes 1.9 and 1.9 WAR
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
The Yankees have basically no need for Soria at all, with Rafael Soriano (sigh) Cory Wade, David Robertson, AND Joba Chamberlain. It’d be awesome to get rid of Burnett, but Soria is not needed.
The Yankees would want a DH type bat
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Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
You can have Clint Robinson. But you’ll need to throw in about $20M.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
By $20M, you mean 20 muffins, right? Right?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
Is Burnett planning on retiring before Opening Day?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
A DH type bat?
Hell, they can have a whole case of any type of bats they want. But we’ve gotten rid of any excess offense. Keep looking.
by Rufus R. Jones on Jan 17, 2012 7:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
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