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Rany compares Francoeur's contract to those of Kubel, Crisp and Willingham and concludes that he would rather have Francoeur despite his initial skepticism about the deal. I still think 1 year at $4-5 million plus incentives was all it would have taken and all that was warranted.

4 months ago Clothes_pile_temp_tiny thelaundry 53 comments 0 recs  | 

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So Rany has convinced himself that the Francoeur extension was actually a good thing?

I’d like to read his thoughful reassessment of the Bay of Pigs invasion.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

And basically his analysis showed that Francoeur got almost as much money as players who have performed significantly better than him over the last three years.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Correction

Francoeur got almost as much money as players who have performed significantly better than him over the last three years, but who are 2-4 years older and more solidly in the historic decline phase of the aging curve than Francoeur and who performed significantly worse than Francoeur in 2011.

I don’t have an opinion on which of those contracts is the best, but it’s a little disingenuous to cite the big mark against Francoeur but leave out the factors that are solidly in Frenchy’s favor.

by kcdc1 on Jan 17, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

but it’s a little disingenuous to cite the big mark against Francoeur but leave out the factors that are solidly in Frenchy’s favor.

I treated the minor elements as if they were minor elements. Rany did not. I’m not exactly shocked.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure who uses that weighting

I know ZiPS uses a 5-4-3. I think for some players he uses 5-4-3-2 (I think which one he uses depends on the player’s age). And on a 5-4-3(-2) weighting, the most recent year isn’t much more important than the other years.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Marcels uses 543 for hitters and 321 for pitchers

I think most projection systems, if they use different weights, have a “steeper” set of weights for pitchers.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 18, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure that ZiPS uses 5-4-3 for position players. IIRC, it is 5-4-3-2 for players over a certain age (25?) and 5-4-3 for younger players.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 18, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Compare the aging curves of a 28 year old and a 32 year old. Also, a team would have to be pretty stupid to look closely at 2011 but not pay much attention to 2010, 09 and 08. But Rany strains to say….“but hey, there’s this too! Let’s pretend it’s important!”

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 19, 2012 2:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't read it that way

I’d wager that Rany still thinks it was a little too much money. But we’d have to ask.

by kcdc1 on Jan 17, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Haven't read it yet, but just because Frenchy's contract is better than other stupid deals, doesn't make it a good one

False choices my friend, false choices.

FWIW, I think the Willingham deal is actually a great deal.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 17, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

His analysis really didn't show that Frenchy's contract is better than a few other deals

He tried to convince himself that his contract is roughly on par with theirs. He even broke out the value of Frenchy’s clubhouse presence. Really.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you believe that qualities like "clubhouse presence" and "being a good teammate" have a value, either negative or positive?

I don’t necessarily agree or disagree with you, but from your statements it appears you clearly disagree with Rany. I’m just curious if you think there is any value in, say, Francoeur’s (perceived) ability to make his teammates better/more relaxed/teach them lessons/etc?

MAJOR LEAGUE (The Royals)
Rachel Phelps (Royals Management): I think he'll fit right in with our team concept.
Charlie Donovan (Royals Fans): That reminds me, I was going to ask you. What exactly *is* our team concept?

by Royals Medic on Jan 17, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it has value

But I think its folly to pay for that value because you can’t really predict when it will have impact. Frenchy had great clubhouse presence last year. Did he have great clubhouse presence with the Mets when they were losing all the time?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 17, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Well put Retro

Of course it has some value, but its damn hard to measure, which begs the question, how valuable is it if it can’t be measured?

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 17, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s not begging the question, though.

by hawkinscm87 on Jan 18, 2012 12:32 AM EST up reply actions  

didn't we (RR) go through this before?

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 18, 2012 7:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm inclined to think Frenchy's leadership has some value

I don’t know how much I’d pay for it, but I’m reminded of how cohesive the team seemed to be last year and how happy Frenchy and Melky were when the trade deadline passed and neither had been moved.

An atmosphere like that seems like it should be a productive atmosphere for young players and vets alike, and it should make it easier for rookies to adjust to MLB life.

Maybe Frenchy’s leadership contributions are worth 100k a year, or maybe they’re worth $1M or more. It’s tough to say, but I don’t think it’s unworthy of mention by an analyst.

by kcdc1 on Jan 17, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

He even tried (probably not that seriously)

To quantify the effect of his intangibles on Hosmer and the others.

I liked that he used data to try to explain why Francoeur was more productive last year. But I don’t need a breakdown of his clubhouse presence. We get enough of that from the Royals’ front office and PR machine, not to mention Lefebvre and Judge.

by thelaundry on Jan 17, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

And maybe there are also some players that don’t like Francoeur and his attempts at leadership. So maybe in addition to some positives (which gets lots of media attention and praise), there are also some negatives. We really don’t know Francoeur’s intangible impact on the team. I really don’t think the Royals know either. But they are happy to pay him for it.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, Billy's probably like:

I lead by example and then this idiot comes in and gets all the credit.

by hawkinscm87 on Jan 18, 2012 12:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m sure it has a value, but a) it’s hard to identify all of the positive and negative effects of a given player’s clubhouse presence, and b) even harder to put a dollar value on it. I wouldn’t pay much for it at all.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I was just watching SC

they showed a full-body shot, she’s been working out. She’s also been around forever. I felt a stirring she’s never made me feel before.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 17, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I've had these same feelings.

They leave immediately when I hear her NY accent come out on the radio broadcasts. It seems beyond fake.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 17, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

It seems you tried to post a link to a webpage as an image.

by kcemigre on Jan 17, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I tried the tree

I really did. I shook it. I waved my hands. I balled my fingers in a fist and mashed the keyboard. Nada. Nunca. Nothing.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 17, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Lesley Visser has obviously had work done

And she looks terrible.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 17, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

The list of horrible offenses to God's hand as the creator of beautiful faces is a long one

but Melanie Griffith has to be up there. Bob Costas cracks me up a little bit too. His face looks as smooth as velour sandpaper. Kohn tho. I’m just saying. She was never eye candy to begin with, but IMHO, the work she’s had done over the years have taken her from disgruntled dock worker/token tomboy sports reader, to fairly hot mature sports personality.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 18, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't seen her recently

That’s a shame. In her day, among the sultriest vixens to slay the silver screen.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 18, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I would recommend doing a google image search but it really won't be pleasant

According to Wpedia, she has rheumatoid arthritis and something about the necessary meds robbing her of her looks and her career.

She looks hideous. Sad.

I remember in “Man with Two Brains”, her character fell asleep and Steve Martin started squeezing her boobs. When she suddenly woke up, he was like, “…Uh, your breasts were out of whack”….awesome. Thats the babe I like to remember.

by Bronzillo on Jan 19, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Despite the age, Ludwick is a decent bounce back candidate

His underlying skill numbers have remained pretty consistent (BB%, K%, BABIP, LD%, GB%, FB%) with one exception (ISO), but the dip in ISO corresponds with his trade to Petco and the NL West. If the power rebounds even somewhat, he is a decent bet to return to being a league average players (especially playing in Cincy).

by Gopherballs on Jan 17, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

My favorite part of his piece where he is CLEARLY just trying to twist some thoughts to convince himself that the extension doesn't suck...

..is where he comes up with an arbitrary list of players that played 120 games at age 21 or younger…and shows that half of the list has ‘HOF arguments’ or something….and then immediately after admits that JEFF FRANCOUER IS NOT EVEN A PART OF THE LIST HE IS USING TO TRY AND ARGUE THAT FRANCOUER IS IN GOOD COMPANY!!!!

He makes an arbitrary list to show that Frenchy is in good company based on his selected criteria, despite the fact that Frenchy doesn’t even qualify for his own arbitrary list. My god if that’s not a stretch of an argument I don’t know what is.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jan 17, 2012 2:39 PM EST reply actions  

your either like the Frenchy deal or your don't.

trying to convert someone to from oneside to the other is like a mormon talking to a southern baptist. it aint gonna happen either way.

personally i dont have strong feelings either way on the Frenchy extension. i guess i have to wait until i see his performance the se next 2 years to form a solid feeling either way.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 17, 2012 3:41 PM EST reply actions  

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