Your anti-DM bias is sickening

But he has had 3 out of his 5 seasons being above average. And at least one of those below average seasons was due to an injury which has not recurred.

It would probably be in Gordon’s interest to wait a year before considering a long-term deal, but I really don’t think it is in the team’s interest. His price would very likely go up. And, if he’s just one year away from free agency, I think he’s less likely to sign a long-term deal at all. Why not just wait one more year and then hit the FA market and make huge money?

I don’t understand that.

If we have to start paying those guys over $5MM per year, things will have gone pretty great and we’ll have a great line-up that is still making 50% or 70% of what they deserve. If worse comes to worse and we can’t afford all our young stars, we could always trade a couple of them since the return on cost-controlled stars in their 20s is pretty huge. In other words, that would be a fantastic problem to have.

like the fact that Dayton has said that 70 (or maybe it was 75) is the limit. Also, the Royal’s past payrolls have consistently been below 70.

There are also plenty of reasons to believe he will spend over 70 if he needs to, like the fact that we did go over 70 in 2008, i think, and the example of other teams like the Brewers who will go beyond their means for a couple of years to go for a World Series.

Before 2012 (when payroll unexpectedly dropped largely due to Greinke’s trade and Meche’s retirement), the Royals consistently spent more than 90% of revenues on the team. I think that will continue. And as the team gets better, attendance will increase. And the next TV/radio deals should be better. With greater revenues should come larger payrolls. I really don’t think that will be capped at $70 or even $75M.

He always comes to a settlement, but he doesn’t always do it before numbers are exchanged.

Are you sure of that? I read recently that DM has consistently reached settlements before numbers are exchanged, except when a long-term deal what reached.

I’m not sure that’s true, but I can’t think of an exception off the top of my head. For instance, the team and Butler exchanged arb. numbers last year shortly before announcing his four-year deal. Similarly, in 2009, the team exchanged arb. numbers with Greinke about a week before announcing his four-year deal. I can’t think of any player that agreed to a one-year deal after exchanging numbers.

Can you think of an instance where the team signed a player to a one-year contract after numbers had been exchanged? If not, I think that’s a pretty strong indicator that DM is expecting to reach a multi-year deal with Gordon.

But honestly my knowledge of arbitration isn’t wonderful. I know that an important deadline has occurred though.

I guess an argument can be made, but I think it takes you out of what could possibly make sense to Gordon. He is of course weighing security vs. the potential of a bigger contract down the road. And a 5/45 deal really tips the balance, IMO.

but that is partially because you don’t know what their true FA value is. If you lock up Hosmer now for 8 yrs, 70 mil, you would really only basing that off of 500 ABs and his lofty status as a prospect.