Rotation Insights from Dutton:
#Royals always capable of surprise but don't see them signing or trading for another starting pitcher. Really want to look at in-house options at this point (Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery, etc.) Things could change if July arrives and still in the race. Could see a rental.
Montgomery will get every chance to win a spot. Paulino and Duffy enter as incumbents behind 3 locks: Sanchez, Hochevar and Chen. Crow will get a real look. Teaford in the picture. And don't forget about Mendoza, who is out of options.
I think Mendoza is a real sleeper. He'll be watched closely to see if his 2011 breakthrough at Omaha (and late call-up) is the real thing.
4 months ago
hawkinscm87
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Mendoza is not the answer
He’s not even the question.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I understand why nobody thinks he will be good
But he did have a (superficially) good season and deserves a look
The team has to understand that he will allow HRs at some point
A pitcher with a K/9 worse than Francis is not going to cut. Teaford should get a longer look than Mendoza.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 19, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Eh, probably
But you can’t say for sure until we see it. Some pitchers don’t do what the stats say they should.
Even if there’s some chance that Mendoza could be good, I’d still rather take my chances with one of the other guys. Maybe if this were last year’s rotation and the 4th and 5th spots were going to the group of Davies, Mazzaro and O’Sullivan, I wouldn’t mind giving Mendoza a shot to see what he can do. But the bottom of this year’s rotation is a lot more worthy of MLB playing time.
Mendoza has a career ERA of 7.36.
His stats and results are similar
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 19, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Don't want to get into an argument about Luis Mendoza
But there’s a line of reasoning that would hold that he’s made changes to his approach and he found a new level of success last season and he never really pitched that many innings in the majors before, etc.
I still think he’d make an awful MLB SP, but I’m not 100% confident.
That 7.36 ERA is in 99 IP. With 79 of those innings coming in 2008 and 2007.
In 2011, he had a 1.23 ERA in his two starts in the majors (albeit in September against weak competition) and a 2.18 ERA in AAA.
I agree that his peripherals do not project him to continue to have good results, but we can’t ignore the good results from last season. We’re not talking about signing him to a 4 year deal here, we’re talking about giving him two starts instead of Crow, Monty, Duffy, Mazzaro or Sullivan.
Two starts can easily be ignored.
and giving him a two start look to begin next year would be just as silly. You can’t find anything out about a pitcher in two starts, no matter how good or bad they are.
Killing time until time kills me
Why should we ignore those starts?
I think I see two major areas of disagreement:
The first is whether we have a large enough sample size to call Mendoza “good enough to be considered”. One good year at AAA is usually enough for most prospects to get a look at the majors. Then, if these guys perform well in the majors, teams will usually keep giving them chances to succeed. I think Mendoza’s good year in ’11 has earned the right to get his look.
The second issue is whether he has actually been good. If we base it on career statistics, then no, it’s clear he hasn’t been. But, most people here will agree that a player’s performance should be more heavily weighted towards his most recent years. So, if we judge Mendoza on the last two or three years, i don’t think it’s clear whether he’s good or not. Traditional stats (ERA, WHIP) say that he had a bad year in 2009, an ok year in 2010 and a good year in 2011. Advanced stats say that he is not good, and never has been, and shouldn’t expect him to be good. I probably give traditional and advanced stats equal weighting, so I think there’s a lot of uncertainty about how good Mendoza is. But, with everyone here saying that Mendoza is terrible, it sounds to me like most people here are giving 100% weight to advanced peripherals and 0% weight to traditional stats. Or, alternatively, most people are giving 100% weight to career statistics, without looking at the most recent data.
It’s silly to give Mendoza this much though since his ceiling is probably a 4/5 like Bruce Chen. But I’m more interested in determining why everyone here hates Mendoza, since I don’t think a fair evaluation of his stats leads to the conclusion that it’s 100% certain that he’s going to be worthless.
You ignore two starts because any pitcher in AA or above could have two good games at the major league level.
Sure, one good year at AAA can be meaningful..but Mendoza’s good year was ONLY the result of him all of a sudden gaining the ability to have balls hit against him be at people, instead of finding holes. That means his season was a fluke. Plain and simple. His K and BB numbers are pathetic in AAA. Major league hitters are gonna tee off on him. There’s a reason he’s given up 133 hits in just under 100 innings at the big league level. His stuff is shitty. Shitty stuff doesn’t play well in the bigs.
Killing time until time kills me
...
That means his season was a fluke. Plain and simple.
So you’re giving 100% weight to advanced stats, and none to traditional, right? I know his K and BB numbers were crap. But his ERA and WHIP were good. I’m not saying that my 50-50 distribution for advanced vs. traditional stats is necessarily right, but i don’t think 100-0 is.
Mendoza’s good year was ONLY the result of him all of a sudden gaining the ability to have balls hit against him be at people, instead of finding holes….His stuff is shitty.
How do you know this? Unless you watched a lot of games at Omaha, have a lot of tape, or have access to data I don’t, I don’t see how you can say this with 100% certainty. Isn’t it just as likely that he developed better control, got better at changing speeds, or developed more movement to his pitches, which is causing batters to make weaker contact?
Aaaand we're arguing about Luis freaking Mendoza
Nobody thinks he’s probably good. Some people think there’s a 90% chance he’s unplayable and others think there’s a 100% chance he’s unplayable.
It's not about Mendoza, it's about the methodology for judging him
Or maybe it’s just that I’m objecting to the hyperbole being used to describe how bad Mendoza is.
This has nothing to do with advanced stats vs. traditional stats.
His ERA and WHIP were good ONE season. For the rest of his career in both the majors and minors, his ERA and WHIP numbers have ranged between shitty and mediocre.
I am not arguing that Mendoza is a fluke b/c ERA and WHIP mean nothing. I am arguing that he is a fluke because he had ONE good season after having many bad/mediocre seasons AND because the advanced stats still say he’s a AAA pitcher and nothing more.
I know that his good year was the result of his hits given up dramatically decreasing b/c the numbers clearly show it. All of a sudden, his hits per 9 was at 7.9, which was by FAR the lowest number of his career since he was 19 years old in 2003. His K and BB numbers were pretty much the same as they have always been. The only change for him was in the number of hits he was giving up. That isn’t a skill pitchers all of a sudden learn.
Killing time until time kills me
That isn’t a skill pitchers all of a sudden learn.
It could be. Quality of contact allowed is a skill, and players are known to sometimes improve.
I doubt Mendoza’s 2011 AAA improvement was totally a fluke, but I also doubt it would carry over to the big leagues. I think he just figured out AAA hitting and was able to induce a ton of weak groundballs.
.
If it was a slight improvement or there was a pattern, maybe. A huge improvement all of a sudden at age 27 with no hint of it in the past is just a fluke. If Mendoza was 23 or had some seasons like this in the past, there might be something there. He’s too old and this season is too isolated.
Killing time until time kills me
Bruce Chen did it, why not Mendoza?
Chen’s improvement is more about the HRs, and less about hits, but it still came out of nowhere. You could argue that Chen’s success is a result of the homer-reducing effects of Kaufman, but then you can argue that Mendoza will have success because KC should have a good defensive team that supresses hits.
I think there’s about a 25% chance that Mendoza can repeat his success at ST or AAA, and the Royals give him a chance to pitch in KC in 2012. If that happens, then there’s about a 25% chance he can survive MLB hitting(i.e. less than 5.00 ERA, averaging 6IP per outing), so I’m talking about a 6% chance we’d see him for more than 2 starts in KC. But if it did work out, his salary would be a lot less than guys like Francis and Chen. So, yeah, it’s very unlikely, but the pay-off could be saving $5MM/year for the next 3 or 4 years…so I think it’s worth considering.
Well for starters, there are plenty who would argue that Chen’s success in KC has been pretty fluky (though not to the degree of Mendoza. Next, Chen has had at a TON more major league success relative to Mendoza.
Before his arrival in KC, Chen has a career ERA of 4.63, while pitching in a much more offensive-oriented environment. With KC his ERA is about .40 lower in a much more pitching-friendly environment. Chen has been a nice surprise so far with KC, but it’s not like this is the first time he’s ever been a respectable major league pitcher. With Mendoza, him even being a #5 starter in the bigs would be a pretty big shocker.
About Mendoza and KC’s defense, Moose and Gia are both question marks range wise on the infield and Hosmer has the repuation as being good defensively, but it didn’t show in the metrics last year. Escobar is the only surefire good defender on the infield as of right now (I think Hosmer will be too, but it’s not a sure thing yet).
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Jan 19, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think it stems from his befuddling presence on the roster in '10
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 21, 2012 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
If Mendoza pitches well in ST or AAA
I don’t see the harm in giving him a couple starts in KC, especially over Boom Boom or SOS. It might also help with service time issues for Monty and Duffy.
God willing, 2012 will be the last year that the issue of gaming service time vs winning games will be a prominent debate at RR
I don’t know how much longer I can take it
I have absolutely zero confidence in Mendoza having success
In fact, I have confidence that he will suck. Like you said, the K/9 (and K/BB) is telling, but the HR and GB rates aren’t all coincidence. His AAA FIP has been under 4.00 in 3 of his last 4 seasons. I think of him as a Chen Light.
That isn’t something that will help you win games, but I wouldn’t object to him being the first injury replacement for a starter.
id much rather have mazzaro starting
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 19, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
His K/9 is way better and I would prefer him in the long-term
Then again, he lost the AAA and MLB FIP battles last year. Even if you don’t include horror game.
If the game is in KC, give me me Luis. As long as he isn’t giving up dingers, he can survive.
I think Mendoza
having two good starts last year is like TPJ hitting two triples on opening day. A pleasant anomaly.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
The options are Mendoza is not on the list, or the 40 man, or 5th.
Which do you think Dayton will choose?
Go Royals!
Yeah, and then again, there's Phil Humber
I realize that discussion has already been had, but way I see it, they could park him in Adcock’s spot and if he sucks, they cut him and move on. But then again if he doesn’t, you’ve got (another) decent #5 or #6 guy.
by Cap Midnight on Jan 19, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Humber actually had good peripheral stats in Omaha
Mendoza had an outrageously fluky HR rate.
The 2nd year
on that Chen deal is increasingly maddening.
by kcgregory on Jan 19, 2012 12:52 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
I agree, but at least on a one year the team might be inclined to flip him into the bullpen for stretches. It’s also possible he could be dealt on a one-year. I wouldn’t have signed him at all, but the 2nd year is what really ties the Royals hands. He’s IN the rotation this year barring injury. Paulino, Duffy, or Monty could suffer for it.
Does anyone know Paulino option status?
There’s no way they’d let him go if he’s out of options.
While we’re at it, what is Crow’s option status? I’d guess that he’s got at least 1 option year remaining, but since he signed an MLB contract out of the draft, he might not have many left.
He has two if he does not pitch in the majors this year.
If he splits time between the minors and the majors then he has just this year.
Go Royals!
Paulino still has to clear (revocable) waivers as it has been more than 3 years since his MLB debut
This usually is not a problem because the team can always pull him back.
But he wouldn't clear
So he can’t be sent down to the minors?
He most likely would clear
because the Royals could pull him back and teams generally do not put in claims in such situations as a courtesy. If the Royals were in contention, however, a rival might put in a claim to limit the Royals’ roster moves.
Really? Teams do that as a favor to each other?
I know if I were another team’s GM and I had even a slight chance to pick up Paulino for free, I’d fill out the paperwork.
I can see the line of reasoning where a team thinks, “No, if I claim Paulino, the Royals will just pull him back, so why bother?” but if I were in charge, I’d be thinking that they put Paulino through waivers for a reason, and it costs me nothing to put a line in the water and hope the Royals bite.
at some point the other team will need to do the same thing
If, say, the Jays put a claim on Paulino knowing that there is a 99.99999999% the Royals pull him back, they gain nothing and risk the Royals retaliating by claiming Travis Snider the next time the Jays need to send him down.
Paulino is out of options
BabyBlues answer was in reference to Crow’s option status. Paulino’s options were used up in 2006, 2007, and 2009. There is no way he doesn’t make the team barring a meltdown in spring training.
by ElChupanibre on Jan 19, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
This is what I expected
I was thinking that the Royals wouldn’t have been able to acquire him for free if other teams could have optioned him to the minors.
So Paulino will either be on the opening day roster or he’ll be injured (or “injured”) with a rehab assignment upcoming.
Ke$ha is always worse
I think it goes Chen contract > Tebow >Ke$ha
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Ke$ha > Being lynched by a mob of crazed Libyans
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Ke$ha < Being teabagged by an Alabama fan while you're passed out
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I think Mendoza is a real sleeper. He’ll be watched closely to see if his 2011 breakthrough at Omaha (and late call-up) is the real thing.
Perhaps I’m being a bit pretentious, but allow me to provide you with an answer to the riddle of Luis Mendoza’s “real-thingedness”. I have no doubt that Mr. Mendoza is “real” in that he actually exists, and he is indeed a “thing” in that he is a human being. But, if you’re asking whether he is a human being that exists who should also exist as a member of the Royals 2012 rotation, then the answer is an emphatic “no”.
"Sure, we might be able to compete in the Central this year if we added another pitcher, and sure, we have the money available to sign somebody good, but we don't have the roster space available and we want to give the young guys a shot!"
How convenient that they’ve already filled their 2 open rotation spots with cheap, mediocre pitchers in Chen and Sanchez, and now they’ll just have to bank an extra $10M of profit this season instead of actually competing.
neither chen nor sanchez are actually cheap
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 19, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
They're both about $5M per year
Compare that to what actually good pitchers cost….
or use that $10 mill to help sign Gordon to a multi-yr deal
question of what to do with $10 million: (1) sign Oswalt for 1 yr, or (2) add 1 additional year to Grodons contrac??
by DickHowser4ever on Jan 19, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
They could afford both
The Royals are at $48M this year before Gordon’s contract. Cut out Chen’s signing and it’s down to $43M. The Royals have proven that with a crappy unsupported team, they can afford a payroll north of $70M, but let’s conservatively call the 2012 ceiling $70M.
So if Gordon gets a 4 year, $40M contract, they’re at $53M, and have $17M left to fill their last rotation spot. Cut out Yuni, and you have $19M…..
Royals payroll is at ~$53 million before Gordon
The $48 million from yesterday’s article did not include the other 10 guys who will make at least the $490,000 league minimum. The team also needs to set aside another $1-$2 million to pay replacements for the guys who end up on the DL.
Good call on Dodd not including the near-minimum guys
But it doesn’t affect my point that they could have afforded to both extend Gordon and sign an impact SP.
$15M should be enough to sign Jackson or Oswalt anyway, and if they needed more money to go after Wilson or a high-priced trade target, there were a lot of other ways to free up money. $70M obviously isn’t a hard ceiling, they could have saved the Broxton money, Francoeur and his contract are probably tradeable without screwing up the Royals competitiveness too much, and the same goes for Soria’s contract. They also could have traded Melky for prospects and/or cash instead of for Sanchez if they wanted to free up enough money to sign 2 good SP’s.
I don't think they genuinely think they have a decent shot to contend this year
But they absolutely have to say publicly that they have a shot to contend this year.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 19, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
IMO, Moore has made it pretty clear to the public that he doesn't think the Royals are ready to make a run at the AL Central this year
Of course, they’d be a lot closer to ready if he had done a better job this offseason.
by kcdc1 on Jan 19, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's right.
And I’m guessing David Glass has talked to Dayton and would absolutely open up the pocketbook if Dayton can honestly tell him that it would put them over the hump.
Things the average fan knows, but the Royals FO just can't understand:
1. Paulino, more than Chen, should be a lock for the rotation
2. Teaford should probably get a look before Monty.
3. You don’t give average pitchers multi-year open market contracts when other options are still out there.
4. Mendoza is not for real.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
Stop playing GM
-Lee Judge
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 19, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think you mean
Stop playing GM-LJ
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 19, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I would actually feel better if the GM...
were playing ‘RoyalPug’; good suggestions.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jan 19, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think Teaford will ever get a chance with the Royals
To see what he can do, beyond spot starts or long relief outings. Considering that Chen is 34 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season in 2010 or 2011 and his peripherals say “how is he doing this?”, how much worse would Teaford be than Chen in the rotation at one tenth of the cost? And if he is bad or if a better option is available (Montgomery or an in-season acquisition), you can move him out of the rotation painlessly, unlike Chen.
I strongly disliked bringing Chen back, but I think he's much better than his peripherals
Chen’s peripherals say he should be a 4.7 or 4.8 ERA pitcher, but I’m convinced that he’s significantly better than that, at least given his current situation where he pitches half his games at the most HR-suppressing park in baseball.
by kcdc1 on Jan 19, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just guessing: The Royals sign Oswalt for $7m plus incentives, and a $11m team option
Starting five: Oswalt-Sánchez-Paulino-Chen-Duffy/Montgomery, whoever wins the job out of spring training. Relief seven: Soria, Broxton, Holland, Crow, Coleman, Collins, and Hochevar who you have around as sixth starter/long reliever. This will come in handy when Oswalt’s back goes out in August.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
100% chance...
you are right.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jan 19, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
60% of the time
kcgregory is right all the time
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 19, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm guessing there's very little chance Oswalt goes for a 2nd year team option. My understanding is he's all about the 1 year only at this point.
Maybe you could make that an $11 million player option, but there’s no way I’d want the Royals to do that contract.
MAJOR LEAGUE (The Royals)
Rachel Phelps (Royals Management): I think he'll fit right in with our team concept.
Charlie Donovan (Royals Fans): That reminds me, I was going to ask you. What exactly *is* our team concept?
by Royals Medic on Jan 19, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, IF we sign him at all, I'd rather it be one year $9.5 Million plus incentives or something.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
Oswalt would not be interested in any club option
Unless it is absolutely huge. He’s willing to take not huge money on a one-year deal as a make-good contract so that he can re-enter the FA market next year and get a multi-year deal.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 19, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Mendoza is a sleeper in the sense
of a passed-out hobo, full of dago red, lying drunk on the tracks of the MKT out of Houston.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
He'll be watched closely to see if his 2011 breakthrough at Omaha (and late call-up) is the real thing.
He’ll likely get Kila’d.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
meaning he'll be in japan in 2 years?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 19, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Sadly, that's probably true, but then again....
at least we found out for sure what we (didn’t) have. Of course, he could always be Phil Humber 2.0….
by Cap Midnight on Jan 19, 2012 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
dude
i just forgot the royals signed jonathan broxton for like a month
That's all right
The Royals almost forgot they had Mitch for an entire season. They even thought he was a pitcher for a while.
by thelaundry on Jan 19, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
You'll also forget about him when he's on the DL for a month...or two....or more
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 19, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Oh no.
Then we’ll have to pitch Greg Holland in those situations. And he’s so terrible and expensive.
Royals should option Herrera
Give Broxton a chance to build value then trade to a team looking for a starter.
That assumes Broxton is back fully.
by WURoyal on Jan 19, 2012 3:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Breaking news:
Billy Butler has been using a fake identity. His real name is Augustus Gloop and he’s originally from Germany.
"There is nothing shrewd about running a red light and later finding out it kept you from being hit by an asteroid." - philofthenorth
by KeepItCopacetic on Jan 19, 2012 5:06 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Mrs. Gloop"Augustus, sveetheart, put that baconator down, save some rrroom for lata."
Billy “Leave me alone I’m schtaving.”
by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Jan 19, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Billy's true identity is Ignatius Reilly
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Funniest book, ever...
IMO. Re-read it recently and about half way thru I realized I had laughed at least once a page.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jan 20, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
...are we seriously complaining
that there are too many competent options for the rotation? It’s basically a given that a team needs at least six competent starting pitchers to begin a season due to injuries, and between Hoch, Monty, Paulino, Chen, Duffy, Sanchez, and Crow, that’s seven pitchers, so we can only afford to have one of them totally implode in ST. (I guess 8 if you include Teaford. No way I include Mendoza.) If the complaint were that we don’t have a legit ace yet, that’s one thing. But if the complaint is simply that we have a lot of depth for average-ish starting pitchers, let’s find something different to complain about. It isn’t like Moore’s given us any shortage of such things.
Bottom line, if, say, Monty’s arm starts flaring up again, I really more people will be glad that we decided to keep Chen around for another year (whether we feel that way in 2013, though, I’m gonna say probably not—optimistically, Chen will make for halfway decent trade bait instead).
* I really think more people
in the second paragraph (to correct omitting a word)
Unrelated, I can’t believe I came that close to outright defending Moore.
I don't have a problem with depth
I just find it annoying that with up to about $20M available in the 2012 budget to blow on a SP, Moore chose to spend $5M on Chen and then cite the clogged rotation as his reason not to further improve the team.
It’s bullshit. Obviously, they could sign another pitcher because you need more than 5 or 6 competent pitchers to get through a season, and if Danny Duffy is depth, that’s a good sign for the team. But if Moore is going to use this backwards logic that holds that you can’t sign pitchers beyond 5, then he should have been smarter than using his one open rotation spot on Bruce Chen.
Although being out of roster spots with a ton of cash left over is great for Glass’s wallet I’m sure.
Right, but that's kind of my argument
Complaining that Moore didn’t spend $15MM to try to obtain a legit #1-2 starter (whatever Moore’s excuse is) is a fair criticism.
Complaining that Moore has given Yost the depth necessary to survive a hit or two the rotation is not.
That’s all.
Yeah sure
I’m all for rotation depth.
I still wouldn’t love the Chen contract as a means to improve the rotation depth, but it’d be better than signing him and then pretending that he’s an impediment to spending money to further improve the team.
Yep
I see the Chen signing as totally divorced from Moore’s inability to find a front-end-of-the-rotation starter. It shouldn’t preclude Moore from getting an ace, so we shouldn’t evaluate the signing as though it has.
The Chen signing sucks for a number of reasons
1) There were better pitchers out there (Oswalt…ahem)
2) He blocks the development of younguns’ (Monty, Crow, Duffy)
3) That 2nd Year aggravates both of those issues
1) Like I said, I don’t see the Chen signing as precluding the signing of, say, Oswalt. After a weak second half last season plus his well-documented struggles in the minors, I’m not convinced that Crow is ready to be a starter yet, and I’m not sold on Teaford either, much less Mendoza.
2) Durr? Duffy and Chen co-existed in the rotation last year—Chen is not taking starts away from Duffy, period. I don’t think Chen is taking away starts from Crow because I don’t think Crow is necessarily ready to be a starter (see above). Mike Montgomery’s development has been hampered by injuries way more than ever being blocked, but even that aside, he had a bad year in Omaha last year and probably should go back to AAA to start the year, which means Chen isn’t blocking him in 2011.
3) I agree the second year is bad. That doesn’t preclude using Chen as trade bait.
And, FTR,
if the reports were true in that Chen agreed to less money to stay with the Royals, then I imagine other teams would be willing to trade market value for his services.
(Doesn’t mean I trust Dayton to get market value for Chen, though.)
Do you think teams were willing to trade for Chen in 2011?
Do you think teams made good offers for Chen in July and Moore just turned them down?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 20, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
1) If Moore is working with a tight budget, then spending $4.5M on Chen makes signing someone else for $8M harder. The same can be said of the Broxton, Yuni and Mijares signings, particuarly if you take all of those signings as a whole.
2)
Chen is not taking starts away from Duffy, period
Someone might be, and Chen would be contributing to that. Right now the rotation locks are Hochevar, Sanchez and Chen. Duffy is going to be competing with Paulino, Montgomery, Crow and others for one of those two remaining spots. Without Chen, it would be easier for Duffy to make the rotation. The same goes for Crow.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 20, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Chen might be hurt for a large part of the season.
He’s had some small injury issues the last 2 years and he’s a year older. But I’m probably kidding myself.
I think it is very likely that Chen will spend some time on the DL
And that will open up a spot for someone else for a period of time. But if someone like Duffy or Crow or whoever is a MLB-ready SP, they don’t need a month of starts in the majors while Chen is on the DL. They need full-time as a starter in the majors.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 20, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I agree about tradiing Chen; I think he's gone after this season
However…
1) Chen + Yuni + Broxton = $11 mil. While I like the Broxton signing, the case can be made that the money could have been used for, say, Edward Jackson AND Oswalt.
2) Instead of using the argument known as “Durr”, actually think about it:
Hochevar
Sanchez
Chen
?
?
That’s the starting rotation for the Royals. The candidates for those two spots are Duffy, Paulino, Crow, Monty, Teaford, and (though hopefully not likely) Mendoza. That’s 6 pitchers for 2 spots. Duffy may not get bumped out, but someone most definitely is. Crow, Paulino, and Duffy all can’t start barring injuries. They all could have if Chen wasn’t signed.
Mendoza is out of options, so there is a good chance he will be the 5th starter out of the gate.
Yay.
Go Royals!
Why else would he still be on the 40 man?
Go Royals!
This pretty much negates the VMart injury
In terms of how close we are to the Tigers.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think the job is Mendoza's to lose in spring training.
I don’t know how many starts the Royals give him to not suck in 2012, not a lot you would think?
Go Royals!
I think the 5th starter spot is going to end up being a competition between Duffy and Montgomery
I think Moore wants to get prospects to KC as soon as possible to get them ready to contend in 2013. And he promotes based on tools, rather than performance. Monty has the tools, so perhaps Moore will think he’s ready.
Now it is possible that Paulino goes to the pen or Omaha and both Duffy and Monty go to the rotation. That has a very Moore-like ring to it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
That's probably not going to happen
If it were, your rotation would look like this:
Hochevar®
Sanchez (L)
Chen (L)
Monty (L)
Duffy (L)
Paulino or Crow will be in the rotation to balance it out. Even Moore knows how ridiculously lopsided it would be if he put Duffy and Monty there.
Moore may very well see it that way
But I think the L/R balance of a rotation is meaningless. You need the 5 best starting pitchers, period. It shouldn’t make any difference which hand they throw with.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 20, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe if the SPs are significantly better
But you have to think that the platoon splits would be aggravating if the Royals played another team with good RH hitters—they might get three or even four lefties in a row, none of them dominant.
It would be less of an issue with a R heavy rotation, but there are more RH batters in the league, which means a lot of platoon pain.
I agree with this.
But Paulino will be in the rotation, so max lefties is 3 I think. Of course, Hochevar and Paulino probably won’t make 32 starts based on their history.
Can we all stop joking about Crow being in the rotation?
Does anybody really think he’s good enough to do this?
Just kidding...
I just don’t think it’s worth talking about until he proves he can pitch at least 4 innings at a time without throwing 100 pitches.
might as well give up on duffy as a starter then too
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 20, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
duffy 18.6 pitches/inning crow 16.5 pitches/inning
crow was actually one of our most efficient pitchers last year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 20, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
they both need to be more efficient ideally...
i was just pointing the absurdity of shitting on crows efficiency when he was one of our most efficient guys last year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 20, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
he was also one of our more efficient relievers...
whats your reasoning as to why he’d be crazy inefficient as a starter? i at least made an argument. you threw out a random assertion as a fact with no reasoning as to why
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 21, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Because I was curious, pitches per inning
Luis Mendoza 14.23
Everett Teaford* 15.07
Luke Hochevar 15.75
Greg Holland 15.77
Nathan Adcock 15.99
Kelvin Herrera 16.00
Mitch Maier 16.00
Jeff Francis* 16.14
Bruce Chen* 16.25
Sean O’Sullivan 16.35
Aaron Crow 16.47
Louis Coleman 16.98
Joakim Soria 17.30
Blake Wood 17.36
Felipe Paulino 17.38
Vin Mazzaro 17.58
Tim Collins* 18.58
Danny Duffy* 18.60
Kyle Davies 19.30
Kanekoa Texeira 19.51
Rob Tejeda 19.72
Jeremy Jeffress 20.00
Jesse Chavez 21.94
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
I REALLY don't think Monty should begin the year in the rotation
But I can totally see the Royals doing exactly that.
Sigh.
Paulino is in KC or on another team.
He doesn’t have options left, right? I don’t see too many teams letting the Royals slide him through waivers.
They could also try the crazy 6 man rotation thing again. HAH. Or maybe a piggyback system like they do in the lower minors. None of the SP will likely avg more than 6 IP this year anyways.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 20, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
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