Was David Lough's 2011 Good Enough?

by Freneau on Jan 22, 2012 12:31 AM EST in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues

Before we fully owned, or knew we owned completely nice things, like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas as fully formed really exciting prospects, Royals fans looked to the edges and the margins for sources of hope. One of those minor stars was David Lough, a college outfielder taken in the 11th round of the 2007 draft. Lough hit well in a short stint that season, then was non-descript in his first full season as a professional. In 2009 however, when much was going wrong in the minors, he stood out, showing a broad base of offensive skills. And remember, the Royals never had good outfielders.

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2009	23	Wilmington	A+	250	28	71	15	2	5	30	.320	.370	.473	.843	105
2009	23	Northwest Arkansas	AA	253	41	78	13	2	9	31	.331	.371	.517	.887	122
2010	24	Omaha	AAA	531	65	129	15	12	11	58	.280	.346	.437	.783	201
2011	25	Omaha	AAA	516	87	145	26	11	9	65	.318	.367	.482	.850	220

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/21/2012.

In 2010, everything went the other way, the system went up and Lough had a middling 2010. Not awful, but a .783 OPS in AAA for a 24 year old... lough he was forgotten.

He rebounded in 2011, when we had moved on to bigger and better things, including new/latest outfielder Lorenzo Cain. Lough's David DeJesus-esque game returned: a useful average augmented by walks and doubles power.

The question is was that 2011 good enough to get even a little excited again?

Overall, the package is similar to what Mitch Maier produced at Omaha in 2008. Is that Lough's career path? Is that too optimistic? We joke about Mitch and how he never plays, but the man's accumulated over three years of Major League service time, and is set to earn $865,000 next season. Nice work if you can get it.

So talk to me Lough-hawks, should ye still exist.

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Comments

I see no reason to pay Maier

$800k +. Even if Lough flops you can find another 4th OF guy or play Dyson there, especially with how little Yost changes things up. Save that $400k and invest it elsewhere.

Obviously, you are not a golfer.

by Kyled85 on Jan 22, 2012 12:57 AM EST reply actions

like in having a fanfest

/too soon

by Freneau on Jan 22, 2012 1:03 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions 3 recs

I Am Having

A fanfest right now. A naked fanfest.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 22, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I'd like to extend to everyone an invitation

to the pants fanfest.
I’m sorry, I mean the fanfest…in my pants.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm, interesting question.

Would we rather have Maier or a fanfest? MITCH is a lot of fun around here.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 22, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

that's sophie's choice for me

by Freneau on Jan 22, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

^this.

same with Irving Falu. why do we need Getz, Yuni and company. bring up Falu and if he flops, then go find a UI. Give the $3 million+ Yuni.Getz money to the Grodon contract.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 22, 2012 8:37 AM EST up reply actions

Charles Grodin would be awesome at Fanfest.

by OnixConcepcion on Jan 22, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

So, is Lough destined, by...

…the powers-that-be as much as his own talent, to be labeled a AAAA player? Apparently he’s not fast enough (i.e. lacking the “range”) to play center. In other words, he’s just insurance, depth in the system, etc. – TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 22, 2012 7:53 AM EST reply actions

to answer your question, i think Loughs 2011 season merits that we start talking and considering him

and his future in KC again

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 22, 2012 8:52 AM EST reply actions

Lough during the last season and a half has increased his walk rate tremendously.

Besides patience his struggles against LH pitching were a major weakness but he improved greatly last season, hitting better against them than righties with a .336/.388/.476 line against. His big problem going forward is that he hasn’t played CF since early in 2010, a corner outfielder probably isn’t real useful to this team unless Frenchy or Gordon get injured or fall off.

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2012 10:12 AM EST reply actions

It was good enough to label him a minor league journeyman who might get a cup of coffee one day

David Lough = Chris Lubanski. Enough said.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 22, 2012 10:26 AM EST reply actions

Lubanski never hit as well as Lough though

by Freneau on Jan 22, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Also, Lubanski basically lost all of his speed, didn't he?

Lough still has above average speed I think.

by Dadunca on Jan 22, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

does anyone remember what Lough's signing bonus was?

by Freneau on Jan 22, 2012 12:04 PM EST reply actions

$5 coupon to Pride Cleaners

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2012 7:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

11th round draft pick

Couldn’t have been too much.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 22, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

$11 gift card to Taco Bell.

by Dadunca on Jan 22, 2012 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

You can't decide whether or not someone is a 4A player until they see time in the majors.

I’m on the Lough bandwagon. I know he may not get a chance in KC, but maybe he could elsewhere. Or, maybe he has a hot spring and the Royals give him a shot as the fourth outfielder. That’ won’t happen, but he’s got nothing else to prove in the minors. I could also see him getting a call if Jeff Francoeur gets hurt. I think they would rather give Lough a shot to see what he has than have Maier play every day.

by Somedevil17 on Jan 22, 2012 12:39 PM EST reply actions

I always kind of liked Lough but he is probably a longshot at this point

If he could play CF on a regular basis (which it sounds like he cannot at his point), he would be kind of interesting. If he canot handle CF, the DDJ comp (or even Maier comp) does not really work. His bat does not project in a corner without Brett Gardner-level defense. Lough makes good contact (only ~11.5% K% in AAA), but his walk rate, while improved, is still well below average (a little over 7% in AAA) and his power is only okay (~160 ISO in AAA). His numbers from last year loose some luster when adjusted for the extreme hitting environment in the PCL last year — Lough was only about 6% above league average (106 +wRC). ZIPS projects him at 255/297/362. It would be nice to see Lough get a shot to play a little bit if an opportunity arises due to injuries or something.

by Gopherballs on Jan 22, 2012 12:59 PM EST reply actions

what is the basis for saying he can't handle CF?

(not questioning you, just curious)

by Freneau on Jan 22, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

BA and other non-Royals-affiliated prospect outlets

by Gopherballs on Jan 22, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think he could handle CF about the same as Mitch.

He is not slow. He may only be average or slightly below average, but he could play there. I like him as a forth outfielder, but who knows if he would hit well in enough in the bigs to a useful center fielder if he is only average defensively?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jan 22, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

ZiPS shows Lough as average in CF and RF and very good in LF

While Francoeur is only fair in RF. It also has Cain as average in CF, so I take it with a grain of salt.

by thelaundry on Jan 22, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

I can't imagine playing with a guy stretched in CF

/melkyed

/ankieled

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2012 7:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

His 2011 numbers don't excite me

The PCL was a shit show last year. Hosmer, CRob, Aviles, Cain and Gio all posted better Omaha OPS’s, and Kila’s crappy year wasn’t far behind.

Lough is a corner outfielder, he’s older for a prospect, and his tools don’t seem to excite scouts. He needs to rake in AAA, and an .850 OPS in the PCL doesn’t get it done.

by kcdc1 on Jan 22, 2012 1:02 PM EST reply actions

MITCH!'s Best Stretch

At Omaha was .316 .366 .470 in 383 PA’s in 2008. He’s been in MLB pretty much ever since. I love his defense and he can catch in a pinch (and pitch, too!), but he didn’t “prove” anything more than Lough has. I’m still happy to have MITCH! as the 4th OF, and Lough is good to have just in case. Sucks for him, though.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 22, 2012 1:46 PM EST reply actions

Here are his MLE's for 2010/2011

.238/.292/.347
.270/.310/.399

If he was average in center, he would have generated a WAR of about 1.5 in 2011.
Good enough for a 4th outfielder, but not too exciting as a regular, and he would have been replacement level or so in 2010, so by MLE’s Lough is not exactly setting the PCL on fire.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jan 22, 2012 3:30 PM EST reply actions

And his .255/.297/.362 ZiPS projection

Is heavily weighted on the “poor” side (92% chance). If he could hit that 2010 MLE of. 270/.310/.399 and Francoeur is around his projection of .273/.314/.437, it’s easy to argue that you would rather have Lough out there for the minimum than Francoeur at $6 million. But it’s a moot point. Absent injury, Francoeur’s going out there at least 150 times.

by thelaundry on Jan 22, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

That's two big iffs

MLEs (and ZiPS for minor leaguers) are no definite thing. Besides, you’re looking at the stats you want to look at. If you can say, “I’m going to use numbers better than his actual ZiPS for this year” then I get to do the same thing with Francoeur. I think Francoeur will hit better than his projections and hit .280/.325/.460 or thereabouts.

The financial argument might be there. But I think that it’s pretty clear that, in a hypothetical world in which Frenchy and Lough could both play Major League RF for the Royals next year, Mr. Nude-Batting-Practice would significantly outperform David.

by Yodazilla on Jan 22, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

It's pretty amazing that such a fine line between AAA player and MLB player has such huge financial ramifications for a guy.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 22, 2012 4:23 PM EST reply actions

It Surely Is,

But a MLB GM is not responsible for every player’s financial well-being. He needs to do what is best for the MLB team, and that isn’t always “fair”. It’s just business.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 22, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

That's why I said if

I don’t doubt Lough’s ZiPS offensively at all. He would have to hit well enough in Omaha to get to that better MLE or it’s not even a conversation. I’d like to think he could, but the numbers tell us it’s unlikely.

by thelaundry on Jan 22, 2012 5:46 PM EST reply actions

Lough is the type of guy that the Royals need to either bring up and trade

2 years at Omaha putting up good numbers should be enough to get Lough a bench role audition. Guys like Mitch are the types that get moved when they get too expensive. Mitch is right up there.

2012 will be a year to see what Lough can do in KC.

by daveyork on Jan 22, 2012 7:49 PM EST reply actions

MITCH! Will Be

At summer camp again, and Lough will be on the farm, waiting for an injury.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 22, 2012 9:24 PM EST reply actions

David Lough

With Wil Myers and Bubba Starling on the near, and not quite so near horizon. I see Lough as trade bait.

by R_F on Jan 22, 2012 11:32 PM EST reply actions

i agree, so KC needs to get him some MLB experience so he will have trade value.

An unheralded guy like Lough without at least some proof of MLB competence isn’t usually worth anything more than a waiver wire claim or rule 5 draft pick.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 23, 2012 9:59 AM EST up reply actions