ZiPS Projections and the 2012 Tigers v. 3.0
I subtracted Victor Martinez and added Prince Fielder. Defensively, they are a wash by ZiPS as it projects them both to be "fair" defensively (aka, below average).
I also added in 100 PA's for Maxim St. Pierre and 20 for Omir Santos as backup catcher and September call-up #3 catcher.
Runs scored (plus defensive runs saved) - 803.0
Runs allowed (ERA-based) - 710.1
Runs allowed (FIP-based) - 695.9
Win total (ERA-based) 90.3
Win total (FIP-based) 91.9
That's basically a net 2.5 win improvement over the original ZiPS projection, which included Victor Martinez. That's also about 11-12 wins more than ZiPS projects the Royals to win.
4 months ago
Scott McKinney
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Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
Mitt Romney is a serial killer.
by averagegatsby on Jan 24, 2012 9:55 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Just sign Jackson and Oswalt and the Royals only project to be 7-8 games back!
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 24, 2012 10:04 PM EST reply actions
I think that's more likely in 2013 than 2012
I don’t see that happening much in 2012. And Tigers management isn’t saying it is going to happen.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
I think they'll at least give it a look in ST
Doubt Cabrera could pull it off at a respectable level, but they have to consider it. I didn’t know the Tigers had mentioned it at all.
by BeauJackson on Jan 25, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
I believe someone with the Tigers mentioned it.
I expect Cabrera to be at 3rd quite a bit. I think they’d rather him be there and have Delmon Young DH. Probably a bigger defensive upgrade by getting Young off the field than getting Cabrera off the field. And it’s still somewhat natural to him, so that helps quite a bit.
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 25, 2012 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
It's possible
But at this point, it’s just a guess. Despite Inge’s persistent suckitude, the Tigers have shown no willingness to put Cabrera at third base. He hasn’t played an inning there since 2008. They also haven’t talked about moving Delmon Young to DH full-time, part-time or at all. Clearly, with Martinez gone, it’s going to be somewhat difficult to move Cabrera to 3B. That opens a pretty big hole at DH. I’d be more willing to believe Cabrera is going to play a significant number of games at 3B and that Young is going to DH a lot if a) Tigers management had ever said they were going to do this, or b) it were at all consistent with how they have been using Cabrera and Young. It is not.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
this isnt good enough for you?
The Tigers reportedly approached Cabrera about Fielder prior to the deal to gauge his interest in shifting to third and the six-time All-Star expressed little to no concern.
http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2012/01/detroit_tigers_miguel_cabrera.html
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Don't you think that is a post-2012 issue?
Obviously after 2012 there are too many players for too few positions unless Cabrera moves to 3B. So yes, I think he’ll play a good deal of 3B after 2012.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
it sure doesnt sound like it with everything ive read....
you’d think one of the articles would mention that this’ll primarily happen next year
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Have you read a bunch of articles about it before the Fielder signing? It coming up with the Fielder signing should tell you something. It causes a problem when Martinez comes back. And that problem has to be dealt with by someone moving to a different position.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
why would i read any articles about it from before the fielder signing?
thats a completely different scenario than what they have now. without fielder, they dont have enough bats to man dh/1b. now, they do. it seems that they feel that cabrera at 3rd is better for their team than delmon in left
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
it seems that they feel that cabrera at 3rd is better for their team than delmon in left
Have they said that? Have they said they are moving Young to DH? It seems like people are assuming a lot.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
im the one assuming alot?
miguel cabrera has said publicly that he’s moving to third base and that that came from the team….you’re assuming that cabrera is lying.
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
We know that Cabrera is fine moving to 3rd, so we know that's probably going to happen.
That leaves DH open, and the Tigers have a corner outfielder that is ridiculously bad in left field. Until I have some other information, I’ll assume Young to DH for now.
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 25, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Nearly everything I'd seen since the signing had been implying that both wanted to play on the field
and that Cabrera was likely moving to third.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 25, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, Fielder makes the Royals a longer longshot in 2012
And he screws up our chances in the next several years. Now we have to hope that the pitching prospects break out because solid offense and good enough pitching isn’t going to cut it if Detroit is fine spending money they don’t have.
I don't think we need to be concerned with any more huge signings by the Tigers for the next 2 or 3 years.
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 25, 2012 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
That's what people said after they traded for Cabrera and Willis
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
not until fielder
unless you could 4/48 as a ‘huge signing’ for vmart
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Isnt' it?
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
IMO no
and even then, it was more than 2-3 years after
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
I guess it wasn't a huge signing by the Tigers standards
But for baseball in general, yes. I really don’t think we should assume they won’t be adding to payroll, even perhaps in significant amounts at any point over the next few years. But no probably not another $200M contract.
And wasn’t the VMart signing three years after the trade that brought in Cabrera and Willis?
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Who cares when the VMart signing was.
We’re still probably not going to agree on it being a huge signing. But anyway—I mean a huge signing to be near $100M and more.
Who cares when the VMart signing was.
There was an issue in this thread as to whether the Tigers had any big signings w/in 3 years of the Cabrera trade. I was speaking to that issue.
But anyway—I mean a huge signing to be near $100M and more.
No, they didn’t do that after the Cabrera trade until now. And no they probably won’t sign any new contracts of that size within the next three years. But they could certainly sign some 2, 3 and even higher WAR players over the next few years. They made not add any more superstars, but we shouldn’t be surprised if they continue to bring in talent which makes the team better.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I know that there was an issue as to when VMart was signed.
What I meant is that it is not important because we still disagree on something before we even get to that.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 25, 2012 8:28 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Someone needs to redesign the Our Time logo with a cheeseburger
So Fielder gets distracted when playing at the K.
The Royals are going to need to hit $80-90M in payroll in order to win the division
Unless the farm system magically churns out 3 ace-level SP’s, this $60M crap isn’t going to cut it if Detroit’s going to be dropping $130M per year.
I think we could do it with $80M.
If we’re developing pitching efficiently, then we shouldn’t even have to surpass that. I don’t know. Just a quick thought.
I guess that depends on what you mean by "developing pitching efficiently"
If that means having a much higher than average pitching prospect success rate, then yes. They’d really have to beat the hell out of the odds to make this happen. It’s possible. I can’t say it’s likely.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
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