Francis Signs Minor League Deal With Reds

After a solid but uninspiring 2011 campaign for the Royals, Francis couldn't catch on with a Major league contract in 2012. I'm surprised, and I've got to think he'll see big league action this year - I suspect he's better than some of the Reds' rostered candidates.

4 months ago CompmanJX3 78 comments 0 recs |

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The Chen contract keeps getting better and better

by thelaundry on Jan 25, 2012 11:29 PM EST reply actions

and everyone bitches that we should still upgrade our rotation....

yet, we’ve got people clamoring for a guy who couldnt get a major league deal over a guy who had multiple multi-year offers.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Just because multiple people are dumb

doesn’t make them right.
Every stat but ERA says that Chen and Francis were basically the same pitcher with the edge going to Francis.
Giving one guy a multiyear market value contract when the other gets a minor league deal is dumb.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Jan 25, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions

if francis is worthy of a major league deal....

then there are 29 dumb GMs in baseball

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 25, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Not saying Francis is.

But if Francis isn’t, then neither is Chen.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Jan 26, 2012 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

a combination of some or all:

dumb GMs
GMs who didn’t need/couldn’t fit Francis in their rotation
Dayton Moore

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

don't confuse stats with metrics

statistics are a record of what actually happened.

Metrics are tools that are used to predict probabilities. Big difference.

by Bronzillo on Jan 27, 2012 5:02 AM EST up reply actions

according to whom?

Metrics are tools that are used to predict probabilities

Metric means a system or tool of measurement. Although I’m not really sure what your comment even relates to, but let’s not start creating incorrect definitions of things.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 27, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

a tool of measurement so future performance (probabilities) can be more accurately predicted.

My comments were in reference to royalpug’s statement,

Every stat but ERA says that Chen and Francis were basically the same pitcher

since all actual stats show Chen as the better pitcher, I can only assume he was referring to metrics.

by Bronzillo on Jan 27, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions

You are using unique and personal definitions of those terms

Not the definitions and usages typical of the sabermetric community.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 27, 2012 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

Not unique or personal at all Scott,

Its very simple.

Using sabermetrics to evaluate a players season are pointless in less the intention is to use that knowledge to increase the accuracy of what is probable for that player in the future.

Otherwise, what is the point? The players statistical performance has already been recorded and cannot be changed. It is, you know, what actually happened.

This is the reason such metrics were invented, and the sole reason they are used in any and every circumstance.

by Bronzillo on Jan 27, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

Unique, personal, bizarre and quite wrong

Otherwise, what is the point?

Knowing and understanding the game better, in the past and present as well as the future.

The players statistical performance has already been recorded and cannot be changed. It is, you know, what actually happened.

And a wide variety of statistics and metrics describe what actually happened.

This is the reason such metrics were invented, and the sole reason they are used in any and every circumstance.

The sole reasons advanced metrics are used is to project or predict future performance? That is entirely and very obviously false. You couldn’t possibly be any more wrong.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 27, 2012 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe I was generalizing metrics a bit (there are so many now)

I suppose some defensive metrics do present what might have actually happened.

and I suppose if one was trying to evaluate who was better, Mays or Mantle, he/she might use advanced metrics to broaden the argument. That admittedly wouldn’t apply to either of those players future. Fine.

My gist is this: Metrics are primarily used for evaluation. Evaluation is knowledge. Knowledge is learning how to improve on the past for future application.

I concede that I misspoke in the form of inaccurate generalizations. Touche.

by Bronzillo on Jan 28, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Metrics are primarily used for evaluation.

Yes, analysis and evaluation. I think we’re in agreement. And as a matter of terminology, for better or worse, “statistics” and “metrics” are often used almost interchangeably in the field of sports analytics.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 28, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

cool, scott

by Bronzillo on Jan 28, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

They ate used interchangeably, because they are synonyms.

I think Bronzillo was confusing statistics and data. Statistics aren’t recorded…they are calculated. That’s the meaning of the word. A statistic is a derived number that is trying to guess or estimate a parameter (an unknown). A datum is a number that reflects what actually happened.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 29, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

So this is your endorsement of the Chen contract?

by BeauJackson on Jan 25, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

What we have people clamoring for (if you can call it clamoring)

Is spending money on mediocre players wisely. Chen isn’t much better than Francis, if at all, and Moore wasted $9M over 2 years on him. Wouldn’t you rather have Chen get $0, probably a draft pick, Francis on a minor league deal or a cheap major league deal, and then use that money (plus other money wasted on guys like Yuni) to sign an average or better pitcher?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

we have the majority of the people on here saying that we should be signing jackson and/or oswalt. now, francis couldnt get a major league deal, chen had at least two multi year offers but now people think that francis would be a better pitcher or better signing?

i dont think the chen signing was good…i didnt even want him back on a 1 year deal but its clear that major league baseball’s trained professionals think that chen is a much better pitcher than francis and these same people that want to go out and spend $10 million for an extra two wins are going to be the same ones bitching about this. we could get a marginal upgrade on chen in oswalt (if he’d sign here) for an extra $5 million or so. where’s the difference b/w oswalt vs chen and oswalt vs francis?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I didn't want Chen back at all

But if Moore was going to bring one of them back, I’d rather go with the cheaper option, which turned out to be Francis. Bringing Francis back wouldn’t have taken a rotation spot for two years like Chen will for some reason.

I haven’t jumped on the Oswalt train because I haven’t seen it as likely to happen. He’ll probably end up in Texas when all is said and done.

by BeauJackson on Jan 26, 2012 12:25 AM EST up reply actions

thats a fair stance...

i had no desire to see francis back here either. i’d rather vin mazzaro get starts than jeff francis…and im being 100% serious….i might be the last royals fan (or possibly the only one ever) on the mazzaro bandwagon. i think he’s got a chance to be solid still

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 12:32 AM EST up reply actions

I still have some hope for Mazzaro

Not as anything better than a #5 starter, but some hope of that happening.

I didn’t want Francis back, I just don’t see the point of bringing back no upside players like Chen and Francis when you need those innings to feel out who is worth keeping around. Bringing Chen or Francis back wastes 130-180 innings of evaluation and experience needed for the young arms. For where the team is at right now, it makes no sense. If Chen or Francis means 78 instead of 77 wins in 2012, who really cares? Just seems a big error to me in long term franchise planning by Moore. Unless there is something I haven’t read about the Royals thinking Chen can teach Duffy some things, I just don’t get it. Even then, I’m still not for it.

by BeauJackson on Jan 26, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions

What rotation would you have been in favor of?

Paulino
Hochevar
Sanchez
Duffy
Montgomery

You didn’t even want one place filler to take up space until Monty is ready? It’s not like we know he’s ready now…or that he even will be this season. There’s nothing wrong with adding a little depth on the cheap, like Francis.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 12:53 AM EST up reply actions

Like I said above

If there had to be a filler with no upside, I’d go for the cheapest option available for the least amount of time. Moore went for the expensive (when you consider the role) option for a two season period, exactly what I didn’t want from a low upside pitching signing.

by BeauJackson on Jan 26, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions

paulino, hoch, sanchez, duffy, mazzaro

i’d have also brought in a couple of younger/less hurt pitchers on minor league deals, i’d have seen what crow and holland looked like as starters in the spring.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 12:58 AM EST up reply actions

I'd let Mazzaro pitch batting practice

that is all

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions

why, because we're going to win the division? ;)

I like bbb’s idea of using a young pitcher (or several) to bridge the gap to Monty et al. Maz, Adcock, SOS or whomever else costs the minimum.

You also get to test each of these against the real thing. We may be 90% sure that they’re not ML quality, but a month or so against ML hitters would help either confirm that or maybe surprise us.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions

We may be 90% sure that they’re not ML quality, but a month or so against ML hitters would help either confirm that or maybe surprise us

We have a lot more data than one month for each of these players. A smart organization wouldn’t let an additional month of data sway their opinion on a player much.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

from a stat sense, yes,

but actually getting to see them pitch against ML hitting for an extended period of time is worth something too. Could turn a “probably not” into a “yes”, “no”, or “still don’t know”.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 27, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

i’d rather vin mazzaro get starts than jeff francis…and im being 100% serious

Just my opinion, but I think that’s pretty insane. His absolute ceiling remains that of a #4 SP…and he looks farther from that ceiling now than he did a year ago.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

francis more likely to be in our rotation in 2013 and 2014?

i dont think that 0-2 win difference at most b/w francis and mazzaro will make a difference

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

No need or reason to waste starts on a zero upside piece of next to nothing like Mazzaro. Little talent and almost no upside. Looks like he still needs a lot of development in the minors. May never be major league ready by the looks of him.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

but we'd waste them on a broken down no upside guy 5 years older?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

Depth and a placeholder until a genuine prospect was ready

I wouldn’t have a placeholder block a prospect. But I’m happy to have a placeholder “block” a genuinely poor pitcher who shouldn’t be in the majors like O’Sullivan, Mendoza or Mazzaro. None of those pitchers has any business making a major league start except in desperation when several other pitchers are on the DL.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

Yay DDJ

None of those pitchers has any business making a major league start except in desperation when several other pitchers are on the DL.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 26, 2012 8:53 AM EST up reply actions

I don't know how much we can make of 28.1 IP at the Major League level,

especially when those innings are so colored by one freakish outing. His ’11 campaign in Omaha was more palatable.

I don’t think he’ll be great, but I’d certainly prefer an evaluation of in-house options for the rotation, which Mazzaro is, even if it’s for that last spot in the rotation.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 5:43 AM EST up reply actions

For the record, I didn’t say anything about his 2011 numbers and I’m certainly not basing my opinion on him solely or even primarily on that. His major league numbers are poor, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and tERA all around 5. And he’s 25, so it’s not like he’s some kid who we should expect to improve a lot. And his minor league numbers were pedestrian. I don’t see much talent or reason to believe he’s more than replacement level or really that he ever will be. I see nothing there but yet another blah #5 SP candidate and they are a dime a dozen.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

yes, but...

he is cheap and we are already paying him. I’d much rather have Mazzaro be filler over Francis or Chen, because he was already on being paid by the Royals. No need to spend money on filler when we have plenty in the minors. None of these guys have upside anyways.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

Francis would be cheap too

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

correct me if I am wrong...

but Mazzaro is already owed his paycheck. We have to pay him, right?

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, Mazzaro is owed his minor league salary

He doesn’t have a guaranteed major league contract. But if he makes it to the majors, then he gets $480K. If he stays in the minors, he just gets his minor league salary.

I’d rather give Francis a hypothetical $1M (and that’s a high estimate, considering he just signed a minor league deal) than Mazzaro $480K.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think I would at those numbers.

1.5 War for a million or .7 War (given his best season….which, I admit, is not a good bet) in 90ish innings for 480k. Mazzaro may suck, but he has age on nisi size at least. Francis doesn’t provide anything (to the Royals in a probable lost year).

Even better, we could not use Mazzaro or Francis or Chen and just use another filler pitcher in our minor system like Teaford (or Crow)

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

This is sort of beside the point, and I'm not really arguing anything.

I just want to clarify, they’re paid a pro-rated rate based on how many days they’re on the Major League roster, right? So conceivably the combination of Mazzaro/Mendoza/O’Sullivan/othershittyfiller would net $480K (or whatever league minimum is), right?

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

Is Suppan under contract still?

O’Sullivan? Mendoza? Teaford?

I feel like we have plenty of potential #5 placeholders that will be either just as good or slightly worse that paying Francis or Chen is redundant.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

As good or slightly worse?

Do you think any of those guys is anywhere near a 1.5 WAR pitcher? I think they are all roughly replacement level (0 WAR).

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

I think there's a good chance that one of those guys

(or one of the other pitchers in that mold) or a combination of those guys could pull in a WAR near 1.0.

I would also say that difference between 1.0 WAR and 1.5 WAR for a placeholder #5 in a lost year is near valueless for this team.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

I also think that the chances that one of those pitchers could manage 1.0 WAR is very small

And is it such a lost year that aren’t willing to spend an extra $500K for an extra win? I think I’d rather have the extra win than give a bunch of starts to chum like SOS, Mazzaro, Mendoza, etc.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

And is it such a lost year that aren’t willing to spend an extra $500K for an extra win?

Yes. I wouldn’t be willing to waste 500K for one extra win in a year where we aren’t likely to win 80 games and our division rivals just signed Prince Fielder.

IMO, #5 placeholder pitchers on teams that aren’t competitive are functionally valueless. There’s bound to be someone somewhere in the minors that could do an acceptable job of that without having to pay for it.

If were had any chance to be competitive and needed a #5, Jeff Francis would be fine. I think the Reds signing him was a decent move. For us, it has no purpose.

Best case scenario, we’d be paying 1 million for a couple of starts until Monty or someone was ready to take over. Worst case, we aren’t valuing our empty slot correctly. To me, the empty #5 slot is worth more than Francis is (in the Royals case).

Don’t misunderstand my point, I don’t think signing Francis would be dumb, I just think it would be unnecessary. Unfortunately, we did something even dumber by signing Chen (who should be thought of as our #5 placeholder after Hoch, Sanchez, Paulino, and Duffy).

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

IMO, #5 placeholder pitchers on teams that aren’t competitive are functionally valueless. There’s bound to be someone somewhere in the minors that could do an acceptable job of that without having to pay for it.

I think Francis very conservatively projects to 1.0-1.5 WAR. 1.0 WAR is about what you’d expect from the typical #4 SP. So you’d likely be getting better than a #4, not merely a #5 in terms of quality.

Second, I think we really should expect those schlubs to be at replacement level and not assume that one of them can hit 1.0 WAR.

I don’t think the signing would be necessary, just of some value, and certainly worth an extra $500K.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think the signing would be necessary, just of some value, and certainly worth an extra $500K.

There’s no value there for the Royals, though. At least there isn’t any given the current roster construction.

The debate should be framed around the following question: What is a more valuable asset given the conditions of 2012 and assuming this issue becomes moot in 2013: Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, or an empty roster spot to try someone or a few someones out.

I’d go with the latter.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

I’d spend $500K to get to 78 wins instead of 77 and also so that we don’t have to see as much of the low-talent minor league chum pitchers. SOS and Mazzaro have had major league tryouts. Mendoza is genuinely undeserving of one. Teaford can get a bit of a look when someone goes on the DL or performs particularly poorly.

Now if they really can turn Crow back into a decent SP, I’d go for that option.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Teaford can get a bit of a look when someone goes on the DL or performs particularly poorly.

Why wait?

Seriously though, would you agree that this is a moot issue in 2013? If you don’t, then we just don’t agree on the opening assumption. If you do, then I fail to see your logic.

As a stats guy, I come from a maximum likelihood school. In addition, I also believe that an open positional spot has, on average, a value greater than 0 WAR ( in other words, replacement level players are worth less, on average, than not filling a position at all).

Given that, I think using that open position (which will only be open for part of this year) on someone who still has unknown potential is infinitely more important than getting an extra win. Yes, I did say infinitely (as I see 0 value in Francis or Chen for the Royals).

Now, I see your point as to the specific people that you have mentioned in your last comment. That’s an arguable point that, so far, I think you have better evidence to support (I don’t think Mazzaro has had a complete tryout, but I think the evidence is strongly suggesting that the isn’t anything there). However, Teaford and Crow have not. Hell, given the fact that Chen is being portrayed as a #3 or #4 by the Royals, we could even use Duffy as our #5 placeholder, at least in practice.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions

A Ridiculous statement

Mendoza is genuinely undeserving of one

The guy was Pitcher of the Year for the entire PCL and had two quality starts in his only 2 appearances last year.

you may not like the guy, but he definitely IS genuinely deserving of a shot in ST at the rotation.

by Bronzillo on Jan 27, 2012 5:26 AM EST up reply actions

but its clear that major league baseball’s trained professionals think that chen is a much better pitcher than francis

Some of them do. How many?

and these same people that want to go out and spend $10 million for an extra two wins are going to be the same ones bitching about this.

They’d bitch if the Royals signed Oswalt and Francis instead of Chen and nothing?

we could get a marginal upgrade on chen in oswalt

Uh, excuse me? You think Oswalt would be a marginal upgrade over Chen?

where’s the difference b/w oswalt vs chen and oswalt vs francis?

Francis is obviously cheap. The Royals could have potentially gotten Oswalt and Francis, minus Yuni, Mijares and maybe Broxton (depending on the payroll Glass would be ok with), instead of Chen plus Yuni, Mijares and Broxton.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

"Some of them do. How many?"

One GM, one agent, and one baseball reporter.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

Haha, majority?

Not even close to a majority.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 26, 2012 8:51 AM EST up reply actions

Basically I think both Chen and Francis project to be 1.2-1.5 WAR pitchers in 2012

So why spend $4.5M per year for two years for Chen when you could have gotten very similar production from Francis for a song? Francis would have been cheap depth who could have easily parted with if Monty became MLB ready and there was no room for him in the major league rotation.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:09 AM EST reply actions

i think when Monty is ready for the MLB rotation, Paulino will be gone.

unless he is tearing up the league. but he hasn’t shown much improvement over his career, and i dont see him improving much over last years performance. the guy has great stuff, but also has terrible consistency issues. lights out one game, Davies-esque the next.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 26, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

Paulino may very well be the best pitcher in the Royals rotation

The ERA isn’t good, but his career FIP, xFIP, SIERA and tERA are the best on the team.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

yes. but after watching him pitch for a couple seasons in Houston

he is totally inconsistent. if he could learn at least abit if consistency from one start to the next, the guy has the stuff to be a #1-2 starter. he just hasn’t shown the ability to hold it together for more than 1-2 starts in a row over his career.

i agree the guy has some great advanced metrics, but i just haven’t seen that he can actually put those predicted numbers into practice.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 26, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

I’d be happy for the Royals to have an average or better MLB SP, even if he is inconsistent. I can handle a mix of good and bad starts.

i agree the guy has some great advanced metrics, but i just haven’t seen that he can actually put those predicted numbers into practice.

Those advanced metrics come from what he’s actually done. They come from his K’s, BB’s, HR’s, GB’s, FB’s and LD’s. They don’t come from his runs, and there is good reason for that. Much of a run scored his out of the pitcher’s control.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

Have you seen any "C'Mon Francis!" t-shirts for sale at the K?

I didn’t think so. Hell, I’ll bet that worthless Canadian doesn’t even know any jokes.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 26, 2012 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

I think "Lighten Up, Francis" had some potential

But clearly “C’mon Chen!” is a $9 million meme.

by thelaundry on Jan 26, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

I'm solidly against the Chen signing

But I think Francis might be about done as an MLB pitcher. It’s great that he doesn’t give up walks, but he just doesn’t seem to be able to get MLB hitters out. Since returning from injury in 2010, he’s struck out less than 5 batters per 9 innings and allowed a BABIP of .318. FIP loves the walk rate and the HR prevention, but the fact is that Francis gives up a ton of hits, and if he can’t bring those down, he’s a borderline #5 at best. If he loses another MPH or 2, his MLB days are probably over.

I’d still take a minor league deal for Francis over the Chen signing in a heartbeat, but I don’t think Chen and Francis are similarly valuable pitchers. Chen is better than his peripherals; Francis is worse.

by kcdc1 on Jan 26, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

He's done and can't get hitters out?

2011

rWAR 1.4
fWAR 2.6

For a single season, I don’t think it’s fair to just average the two, but even if you do that, he was still a 2.0 WAR pitcher. Even by his 1.4 rWAR, that’s better than a mere #5 SP. So what do you base the “he’s done as a MLB pitcher” on? Do you think he’s suddenly going to be much worse than his 2011 performance? Or did you think he was done last year when he put up those numbers?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

fWAR is just FIP. I’ve already explained why I think Francis is worse than his FIP.

I think Francis’s TTL is about a 5 ERA. That’s a little better than replacement level, but he’ll be 31 years old with a major shoulder surgery under his belt, a low 80’s fastball, and a .300 batting average-against.

by kcdc1 on Jan 26, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

And you're confident that the "ton of hits" he gives up are because of his pitching?

You’re completely ruling out the parks he’s been pitching in and the defenses he’s had behind him?

No, you didn’t explain why you think Francis is worse than his FIP. That is unless you think “he gives up a ton of hits” explains it. Why do you think that the hits he gives up should mostly be attributed to him, rather than the other things that affect whether a batted ball become a hit? I’ve seen the average line drive rate for a pitcher described somewhere in the 19-20% range. Last year his LD% was 18.1%. Since his shoulder surgery, it has been 19.1%. If he were particularly easy to hit, wouldn’t you think his LD% would at least be higher than average?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Why do you think that the hits he gives up should mostly be attributed to him?

Because his fastball maxes out in the low 80’s, he can’t strike batters out, and he’s allowed a .320 BABIP since returning from shoulder surgery.

by kcdc1 on Jan 26, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

Do you have evidence that a lower velocity FB in a MLB pitcher means he gives up more hits? And if his particular degree of “can’t strike batters out” lead to more hits and a higher BABIP (actually about .317 since his shoulder surgery) , don’t you think that would be reflected in his SIERA? And his SIERA in the last two seasons since his shoulder surgery were 4.03 and 4.46. That doesn’t exactly scream “done” to me.

Or is this just a gut feeling based on some factors where we don’t really know how much they affect BABIP or hits allowed?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

I haven’t done a statistical study to show that Francis will continue giving up a lot of hits, but his career BABIP is .310, and most of that came from Francis’s pre-injury career where he was throwing 3-4 MPH faster.

A quick Google search turned up this article suggesting a link between veloticy and BABIP. There are probably better studies out there, but I suspect that if you looked at individual pitcher’s velocity charts as they aged and compared it to their BABIPs, you’d find a relationship.

I think Francis’s TTL is about a .300 batting average against. He limits walks and gets a good (but not great) number of groundballs which limits the HR’s he allows. This might allow him to hold on in the Majors for another couple years with an ERA in the high 4’s, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his velocity drops another MPH, he starts allowing some more HR’s, and he doesn’t get more than 20 or so more MLB starts.

You think he’ll continue to succeed as a solid #4 guy. We’ll see.

by kcdc1 on Jan 26, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

Not to beat a dead horse given my above arguments...

but even if he is a solid #4, so what?

We aren’t going to have him going forward past next year, are we?

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t really value the open tryout to see if one of them might turn into a decent #5 SP at some point. Decent #5 SP’s are pretty easy to find. We don’t need to sacrifice a win to see which one of them is merely above replacement level.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

That's not the point...

the point is to find someone who might be better than a #5 going forward. Crow, perhaps.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jan 26, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

If when they stretch him out in ST he looks at all like a MLB-ready SP, I’m all for it. But I think if they are serious about developing Crow as a SP, he’s going to need some time starting in Omaha.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions