MLB.com top 100 prospects
Featuring Bubba at 17, Myers at 19, Monty at 31, and Odorizzi at 47
4 months ago
CompmanJX3
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This list is very high on the recent draft class
Personally I’m loath to rate some of these guys so high (eg Bubba) when they’ve played little or no professional ball.
Mayo always seems to do that
Seems like he just keeps the same list as last year, moves a few guys around, and adds some of the recent draft picks to the Top 50.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 26, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
you've gotta be fucking shitting me....i have to click through 100 different pages...fuck mlb.com
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 12:19 AM EST reply actions
seeing billy hamilton at 34 after OPSing 700 at age 21 in low A with very little projectibility and an arm that will likely force a move to 2nd base makes me question this list very quickly….i mean, is anyone really taking him over hak ju-lee?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 12:26 AM EST reply actions
I didn't think last year's MLB.com top prospect list was to be taken seriously
This year’s list shouldn’t be taken seriously either. I think Odorizzi was actually ranked higher last year than this year. Does that make any sense? Of course not.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
More proof the blogosphere is light years ahead of corporate America...
It wouldn’t take dick to pay someone highly knowledgeable from a random blog to put together this list. Or at least develop a good set of objective criterion.
I am the one who knocks.
I don't know
They could either hire good prospect analysts, which actually costs something, or they could just have some guy throw together a list of prospects. The average fan (which I guess is what they are going for at MLB.com) doesn’t know a good list from a bad one. They’re happy to see any ranking of prospects, especially if it “looks official.” MLB.com probably gets the most bang for its buck by just churning out a POS prospect ranking.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
you think they're paying mayo less than goldstein's getting from BP?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Christ, I forgot it was Mayo that put their list together. He should be ashamed of himself. This is amateurish. It’s almost looks like he didn’t really put much thought into it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, come on
Your exaggerating a bit Scott. The list isn’t that bad. Billy pointed out a couple things he didn’t like which he makes a reasonable case for…
What are YOUR major beefs?
…I thought Cuthbert should have made a back end appearance, and I’m not huge with rating unproven players highly, but everybody does that now. I think Sickels put Bubba #1 on our top list.
Honestly, a case can be made for any of the top three being number one.
Given Bubba’s ceiling, which frankly could be as high as if not higher than even Hosmer’s, I can’t fault for Sickels for opting for that over Myers and Montgomery coming off down but not damning years.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 5:52 AM EST up reply actions
If you've read Moneyball
and I’m pretty sure you have, Bubba sounds EXACTLY like Beane was as a prospect in ’80.
This isn’t necessarily relevant, given the generation gap and the fact that scouting is so much more thorough and exacting today, but it reminds me that we don’t really know with Bubba. He could be a terrible pro hitter right from the start and never figure it out. His projection is too speculative for me at this point.
To me its a no-brainer that Cuthbert is a better prospect than Bubba right now, and he didn’t even make Mayo’s 100 list, and Bubba was top 20.
I have. There are similarities. These prospect rankings are based largely on ceilings, though,
and Beane would have rated highly on a present-day list as well. I’m not saying Bubba will reach that ceiling or is even likely to, but when evaluating/ranking prospects, you can’t ignore it simply because the prospect is raw. All we can go on is tools at this point (and to a lesser extent how he did against tougher competition in AAU-type play or whatever the hell tournaments he played in), and those tools say special prospect.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure what's so bad about this list
I found it entertaining. I’d never heard of a lot of the guys before. Obviously you can’t actually rank two different 19-year-old prospects and their chances of major league success as, say, #17 and #18 with any reliability, and it seems like the writer knows that. You probably can distinguish #17 and #57 if you have years of experience at it.
I prefer Sickels’s system of dividing them into groups with a letter grade. He doesn’t distinguish between, say, A prospects, and try to rank them one by one.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
check his site next week....he will
I prefer Sickels’s system of dividing them into groups with a letter grade. He doesn’t distinguish between, say, A prospects, and try to rank them one by one.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn't?
Didn’t he struggle a bit after moving?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
He took a big step forward this year
He dominated at high-A and then struggled a little in AA. Overall, it was a very big step forward, and he’s going to be ranked considerably better this year by BA, BP and Sickels (IMO). Certainly that is how he has been described by prospect evaluators.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
MLB.com is a toolsy/grit/profile analysis, IMO.
by WURoyal on Jan 26, 2012 9:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
True, but by any analysis it doesn't make sense to give him a worse ranking now than a year ago
Everybody’s analysis of his tools, perfromance, etc. (perhaps even grit) is better now than it was a year ago.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but their rankings debuted right after he was traded.
by WURoyal on Jan 26, 2012 11:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
And add it the fact this was a legendarily strong draft class
The consensus number one college prospect since beginning his soph year went number 6 overall. He fell due to injury, but what a class!
by WURoyal on Jan 26, 2012 11:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
injury wan't the only reason Rendon fell
and maybe not even the most significant one.
Rendon wasn’t nearly the same hitter when forced to use a BBCOR bat.
Soph season using BESR bat: .394/.539/.801
Jr season using BBCOR bat:…..327/.520/.523
He hit 20 hr as a freshman and 26 as a soph using the old “trampoline” bats, then 6 as a junior using the new bats in similar PA’s each year.
Must say, I was a little scared when he was on the board for KC at 5.
he also had a wrist injury did he not?
those are notorious for sapping power
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
I thought it was a shoulder injury.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
it mightve been
if it was, seems like if it was bad enough to force him to primarily DH that it’d have an effect on his hitting as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Shoulder is never a good thing.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Once again,
Gotta call you on the exaggeration thing.
I would say Odorizer did NOT “take a very big step forward” as you put it. He dominated a level that he was really too advanced for, in one of the friendliest pitching parks in the minors, then moved up to AA and didn’t pitch particularly well at all (4.72 era, 5.09 FIP). You can’t even say he was unlucky as his op babip was a paltry .273.
I have read you comment on this site that John Lamb hasn’t pitched particularly well at AA in his career so far. Well if that is case, than you certainly can’t say Odorizzi has.
Lamb was younger in both his AA stints in ’10 and ’11 (over a full year younger in ’10) and performed better overall. 68 IP, 4.24 era, 4.07 FIP, .303 babip.
Imo, stats at Wilmington should be taken with a grain of salt as all decent prospects put up their best numbers there. Not surprisingly, both Lamb and Monty were much better there than Jake was at well at over a year younger. I use this analogy because (supposedly) the three are similar level prospects.
If your trying to make the case that Odorizzi made a big step forward last year, than you might need to rethink the evidence that you thought supported your argument.
by Bronzillo on Jan 26, 2012 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would say Odorizer did NOT "take a very big step forward" as you put it. He dominated a level that he was really too advanced for, in one of the friendliest pitching parks in the minors, then moved up to AA and didn’t pitch particularly well at all
Sounds like Montgomery and Lamb a year ago. Do you think they didn’t take a big step forward because their high-A performance wasn’t very meaningful and their AA performance in a partial season was underwhelming?
I have read you comment on this site that John Lamb hasn’t pitched particularly well at AA in his career so far. Well if that is case, than you certainly can’t say Odorizzi has.
Correct, I Lamb didn’t pitch particularly well in AA. But I never said he wasn’t a top prospect who didn’t take a big step forward (before the 2011 injury).
If your trying to make the case that Odorizzi made a big step forward last year, than you might need to rethink the evidence that you thought supported your argument.
My evidence is everything I’ve read from prospect evaluators. They loved his tools and think that they took a big step forward.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe we differ on what constitutes a big step forward
To me, Jake performed at the minimum of what was expected of him given his prospect status.
Putting him at #46 seems about right. Which pitchers ahead of him are worse prospects? He just didn’t get it done results wise, to put him any higher.
Our AA and AAA parks (and leagues) are very difficult venues to put up big #s for a pitcher.
Outside of Mendoza last year (and I suppose Duffy in a small sample), we haven’t had a pitcher dominate in the upper minors in a long time.
To me, Jake performed at the minimum of what was expected of him given his prospect status.
So it was expect of him to go to high-A for the first time and strike out more batters per 9 than he had before in the minors while walking fewer than he had in the minors? Yes that’s a pitcher friendly park and league, but he was the second best pitcher in that league. He dominated. To say that was the minimum that was expected of him is absolutely ludicrous.
Putting him at #46 seems about right. Which pitchers ahead of him are worse prospects? He just didn’t get it done results wise, to put him any higher.
My problem was that MLB.com ranked him higher a year ago, and then after a big step forward moved him backwards. That’s a half-assed list.
If Odorizzi didn’t take a big step forwards in 2011, then do you think Montgomery and Lamb took big steps forward in 2010?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
This line of thinking is flawed because it disregards both the influx of conceivably superior talent from the incoming draft class
and other prospects surpassing him simply because they did more to move themselves up than Odorizzi may have.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So even though he took a big step forward (according to everything I’ve read at BA, BP and elsewhere), many other prospects took bigger steps forward and that pushed him backwards on the list? I don’t buy that for a second. Some prospects moved up and some moved down. If he looked a lot better in 2011 than before (and he did), then he should move up the list.
And the effect on a top prospect list from the influx of talent from the draft is counteracted by the many prospects who graduated to the majors and thus off the list.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 26, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
i think you'll be surprised...
i doubt this is the only place that happens…its almost like you’re criticizing them because they were ahead of the curve last year. perhaps mayo reevaluated how he looks at prospects? Maybe he had a really great report from a scout he trusted last year and didnt get reports that were all that different this year?
that being said, this list does suck….i dont think its because of odorizzi’s ranking though
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the list of guys who were either ranked below Odorizzi last year or were drafted and placed ahead of them.
7. Jurickson Profar
9. Trevor Bauer
10. Dylan Bundy
11. Gerrit Gole
14. Devin Mesoraco
16. Danny Hultzen
17. Bubba Starling
18. Taijuan Walker
20. Archie Bradley
21. Tyler Skaggs
22. Nolan Arenado
23. Miguel Sano
24. Drew Pomeranz
25. Travis D’Arnaud
27. Anthony Rendon
28. Zack Wheeler
30. Carlos Martinez
32. Francisco Lindor
33. Brett Jackson
34. Billy Hamilton
35. Christian Yelich
36. Arodys Vizcaino
37. Anthony Rizzo
38. Matt Harvey
39. Yonder Alonso
40. Sterling Marte
41. Dellin Betances
42. Randall Delgado
43. Mike Olt
44. Zach Lee
45. Hak-Ju Lee
Who from that list should Odorizzi be ahead of? I’d maybe grant you Zach Lee, but Lee has more on his fastball and likely has a higher ceiling. Other than that, seriously, who from that list shouldn’t have passed Odorizzi?
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
ahead of *him*
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 26, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
Mike Olt for sure
Brett Jackson and Billy Hamilton also. A few others I’d have in the toss up range.
by BeauJackson on Jan 26, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
Billy Hamilton maybe (he was the only other one on the list that I considered including with Zach Lee).
I’d beg to differ on Brett Jackson even with the Ks. I’m up in the air on Olt as he’s a plus defender at third with plus power. You could maybe convince me to give Odorizzi the edge, but I’m inclined to go with Olt.
Even if given those three (and I really wouldn’t come anywhere near granting you Brett Jackson), this still keeps Odorizzi well below #37 where he was heading into last season. Scott wanted to believe this is a world in which Odorizzi couldn’t drop on the list if he made a “big step forward” (which is being a little generous). I think this list would refute that point.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Brett Jackson won't have a 402 BABIP with a 25+ K rate at the MLB level
He’s almost a AAAA prospect to me. Olt was 22/23 in A+ ball, no way he can be that high on a list.
There are other guys where I case could be made for putting Odorizzi ahead. In the end it doesn’t matter, but those three guys at least have no business ahead of him.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
i think he'll fall somewhere between david lough as a 4A guy
and david dejesus
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
I can't think of a goo 4A comp
But Josh Willingham might be a better comp for his ceiling at MLB due to his power profile.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
with about 10% more k's
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
And he's supposed to be a better athlete, isn't he?
Is that where the DeJesus comp came from?
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
yeah...i think he'll be a capable CF but defensively better suited for the corner
where the bat doesnt play up
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Everything I've read says he can play CF more than capably but that his arm would play well in a corner.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
olt was fucking 23 in A ball….i’d hope he’d mash
as for brett jackson, if you’re going to strike out 30% of the time, you better hit lots of homers or play GG caliber defense and that he doesnt do
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
just looking quickly....
archie bradley, carlos martinez, fucking billy hamilton, brett jackson, mike olt, and whichever one of delgado/vizcaino is likely to be a reliever…i know one of them is i just cant remember right now.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Delgado with his BB rate is a reliver.
So there is another one who should be lower
I forgot about Carlos Martinez. He’s getting a lot of buzz considering his near six BB/9 rate in A+ ball.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
and he's got two pitches and a questionable motion....
it’ll be a major surprise if he’s ever in a starting rotation
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
And with all of this quibbling about these guys what's getting lost in the shuffle
is that Odorizzi wasn’t particularly good when he moved up to AA. He basically halved his K/BB. Odorizzi’s FIP in NWA was 5.09.
What is there that makes Odorizzi unquestionably better than these guys based on what he did once he got out of Pitchers’ Paradise?
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
To be clear,
I like Odorizzi, but come on. Some of us need to step back and look at what he actually did once he advanced to AA. There is cause for concern.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
all of these guys have major causes for concern....
they’re prospects and not elite ones
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
Odorizzi at AA wasn't awesome.
But his BB/9 rate didn’t blow up like some guys. The Royals also had him focusing on offspeed stuff all season. Some of these other guys were probably working on things too, so the stats aren’t the end all.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
I realize this.
It’s more that people are sitting here saying there’s no way Odorizzi should have dropped, which I don’t see as a valid argument. I think there’s cause and looking at the list it can certainly be argued.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
i actually said it was fine that he dropped....
i just saw the list you posted and saw a few guys who i definitely dont think belong ahead of him…im sure there are guys behind him that i think should be higher than him as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not too concerned about him dropping.
Some of the guys placed ahead of him is the things the confuses me.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
And throwing the list out because he dropped, that's what cracks me up.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
No, but his K's plummeted.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
Indeed they did
Which was noted during the season. Hopefully it was just adjusting to the next level and isn’t something that continues to drop.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
I saw him in his first start in AA, and it was fairly rough.
He didn’t get rocked, but he was working insanely deep into counts and had a very early exit.
I’m not gonna make a mountain out of a molehill, but the assessment that Odorizzi took a big step forward seems to me to be an assessment that would have been made after his stint in Wilmington and before he had any substantive playing time in NWA. I’m leery about crediting him with more than is due.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
He did take a step forward
He conquered A ball. Now, he has to conquer AA ball, which he certainly didn’t do last year. I don’t see him as uber-elite, so I didn’t really expect him to last year, but the expectations are higher this season.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
I don't want to be this guy, but
he conquered A ball in a ballpark where seemingly every Royals hurler conquers A ball.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
He still did it
The best of the Royals pitching prospects have all done it, so that puts him in their company. Now he has to keep going.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
And all of those pitching prospects have been letdowns so far (Greinke excepted)
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Duffy at least got to Kansas City
I don’t think Montgomery has been a let down, but I don’t think that is a widely shared view. Odorizzi is in the pack now, hopefully he doesn’t stagnate.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
there hasnt been a single one who can be judged
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
I meant that statement to go back much further than just GMDM's reign.
If only applied to GMDM’s prospects, then true, but none have dispelled the notion that Wilmington has helped to inflate the expectations for these pitchers. They’ve all seemed to struggle after getting that “Top Prospect” shine in Wilmington.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
do you ding harper significantly for his struggles in AA in a small sample size?
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
Are you serious?
How are these the same thing? Harper is two-and-a-half years younger and didn’t play half a season at the level.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
i am in no way saying they are similar as prospects
but struggling in a small sample size while adjusting to the next level doesnt really bother me
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Again, this was all started when Scott made a statement to the effect of
if Odorizzi took a big step forward then there’s no way he should drop in the rankings
Frankly, that statement seemed both lazy, unimaginative, and wrong, not things I typically associate with Scott.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
Carlos Martinez's ceiling is higher than Odorizzi's
Sickels (because he was invoked earlier) almost graded him an A-.
Sickels also gave Bradley an A-.
He also projects both Vizcaino and Delgado as #2 starters. Vizcaino is more advanced and didn’t pitch poorly in AA. Delgado also pitched better in AA than Odorizzi and is more advanced.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Delgado was terrible in Atlanta
And has always had control issues. He’s a reliever long term.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Seven starts?
Stick a fork in him.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Not a metal fork.
But with his control issues, I think he is long term better suited for the bullpen.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
And while you're not high on Hamilton.
It seems that almost everyone who does this for a living is. Goldstein? Five-star. Sickels? B+. Like him or not, he has an 80-grade tool, which Odorizzi can’t touch, and if the Reds move him to CF instead of 2B, which is possible, then his value isn’t nearly as negated as you’d like to assume it will be.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
jarrod dyson has an 80 grade tool....
and probably another 70 grade tool
he was an alright hitter overall in low a ball as a 21 year old b/c he got walked a fair amount (which will decrease b/c as he progresses b/c pitchers have more control and wont fear him hitting the ball hard) and because he stole a million bases which will also decrease as pitchers and catchers get better. And while he’ll likely always have a relatively high BABIP due to the bunts and just his speed in general, its not going to be 388 and 360 as defense get better.
if CF was a possibility, i think i’d have seen someone mention it. Since i havent, i’m going to go ahead and assume thats very unlikely due to his arm, which is the reason he’ll likely move off of ss
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
It's right here.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
The Reds already have a Hamilton-esque player in CF
Drew Stubbs, who has some power. Unless he changes organizations, I doubt he’ll move to CF.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
i fail to see the similarities other than that they both play for the reds
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
Hamilton's three years away or so.
A lot of things can change between now and then. Stubbs is only under club control for four more years.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
If he is three years away
He’d put getting to the majors at 24, which would be another reason he shouldn’t be that high.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
I'm just going by a level a year of advancement
given his relative rawness with the bat.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
You like the guy more than I do, that is for sure.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not crazy about him,
but I think it’s way too soon to say a guy with his speed and ability to draw a walk is doomed.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think he is doomed.
I’m just not sure what his ceiling is. If he can be close to Delino DeShields in his prime, I’m sure the Reds would be happy.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
And until that picture becomes clearer
I don’t have a problem with the fastest player in baseball being ranked ahead of Odorizzi.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Right, it's not the end of the world.
Right now though, I’d put a potential 2/3 starter ahead of a speed demon with a weak bat. You’re probably right that the ultra elite tool that Hamilton has it what has him ranked where he is.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
look how little this guy is...one thing that wont change in the next 3 years....hamilton's lack of power
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
I'd suggest that he may not need power.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
how is he different than chris getz plus a few steals?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
60-grade versus 80-grade speed.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
and you think that makes him worthy of being the #34 prospect?
which means he should project at an all-star level (especially considering he hasnt performed above low a ball) and getz has no place in the major leagues?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
I'd guess his ceiling is somewhere around Juan Pierre (trading the Ks for some BBs)
Juan Pierre had a pair of 4.4+ WAR seasons. We’re talking about ceilings right?
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
if you'd like to be....
and i’d argue that odorizzi’s ceiling is at least that with a much higher floor
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I don't really give a fuck about Hamilton.
I think one can certainly make an argument to rank him ahead of Odorizzi, who had his own struggles this past season and cannot lay claim to being the best prospect at any one thing, while Hamilton can, even if it’s just speed.
And for all the jibber-jabber about Tom Goodwin, Crisp had no arm and was still great in CF.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
I'd disagree about the floor,
TINSTAAPP and all.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
well...floor assumes relatively good health in my mind
i mean…matt moore’s floor is low as well. he could tear his labrum tomorrow.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah,
injury attrition rate for pitchers nearly negates all floor talk when talking pitchers vs. position players on prospect rankings lists.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
not a suscriber anymore but i'll take your word for it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
Pertinent quote
Hamilton shows excellent range at shortstop, but his hands aren’t soft and he lacks the arm strength to make plays deep in the hole. His low arm slot makes many of his throws tail, costing him accuracy. Some scouts believe he’ll eventually move to second or center field.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
the bad arm strength and low arm slot/bad accuracy make me think center field might be highly unlikely
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Then take it up with the scouts that the gents over at BA are talking to.
I’d be much more inclined to side with BA here.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
i have no doubt that they know more
those just seem like things that probably wouldnt bode well for a CF
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
I've seen plenty of speedy CFs that had shite arms.
The range often outweighs the arm.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
Did Goodwin actually have range?
I honestly don’t remember.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
I don't really remember either.
I barely got to see the Royals growing up before internet options became available. I know he was fast.
by BeauJackson on Jan 27, 2012 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
i felt like he did PLUS he walked
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Obviously it's hard to tell, but his defensive values weren't that great according to FG
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
yeah...they only have UZR from when he was old....
and i dont know much about total zone…but if he didnt have range, thats a great argument for why we shouldnt assume hamilton will have good range
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
wait...you're really writing a blog about law and order?
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
It's more or less dead.
I haven’t updated my signature in a while.
My persona is weird there.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
The weird thing is,
I sort of feel like some of my best writing I’ve done has been there. It was a group effort, and it became all me, which proved to be frustrating and was spreading me too thin.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
i didnt read any of it really...
just clicked on it b/c of the awesome name…law and order has been a casualty of streamable video….i used to watch at least a couple episodes a day…i dont remember when the last time i saw a single episode now
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
It's just SVU.
Those other L&Os can lick my nads.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
Not really.
I sort of like CI, at least when weird-ass Goldblum was on.
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by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
they all served their purpose of killing time...
in a way that didnt make me want to kill myself
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
The Family Ties series I did was weird as shit.
I’d recommend that and maybe “Dylan McKay: Rapist”
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 27, 2012 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
FYI, Goldstein also mentioned Hamilton possibly moving to CF in this week's BP podcast.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 29, 2012 2:05 AM EST up reply actions
If I was a GM...
The first thing I would do is Godfather offer the top 10 baseball bloggers and have a “war room” where they discussed who they think should be offered what money. Complete objectiveness. This would save maybe $200 million over the next 9 years.
I am the one who knocks.
You'd have Langerhans
And you’d still suck
by WestCoastRoyal on Jan 26, 2012 3:20 AM EST up reply actions
Who are the top ten?
and what makes you think they would agree on anything? You can’t run anything by a committee that large. You might want to settle on three, and hope it comes out 2-1. It is difficult to get 10 people to agree on anything more complex than the color of the sky.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
coorperations are ran by boards of directors
I don’t understand the opposition here
Logical men can find logical systems to accurately use.
What about draft day committees? They work well and presumably have many more that 3 scouts involved.
I am the one who knocks.
by PhattStairs on Jan 26, 2012 8:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
if doctors are made better doctors by using...
Algorithms to diagnose patients instead of their expert opinion, I think that baseball teams could rely a little bit more on objective advanced stats than scouting advice. Of course, this goes out the window when talking about high school, very young, or International players, but should work spectacularly for free agents.
The Yuni signing really made me question (as did us all) the way the Royals value free agents. I’m a huge Chen fan, but the Francis minor league deal could be another example of bad objective evaluation by the Royals.
I am the one who knocks.
by PhattStairs on Jan 26, 2012 8:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
This wouldn't work because stats play too small a part in prospect evaluation
“Bloggers” don’t get to see minorleaguers/ college players/ HS players play numerous times.
Mostly they read stat lines, metric algorithms, and watch youtube videos. This is not enough to be credible.
Corporate boards elect officers. Officers make decisions.
Obviously boards make major decisions but it’s not like they decide which snack machine company to use.
by WURoyal on Jan 26, 2012 8:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
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