Have You Given Up on Aaron Crow?

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4 months ago Freneau 12 comments 0 recs |

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I would never give up on true love.

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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 27, 2012 9:37 AM EST reply actions

I am just not sold on him as a starter.

With the bullpen being stacked, I see him in AAA starting.

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 27, 2012 9:50 AM EST reply actions

I hope Dayton Moore sees it that way

I think Dayton Moore wants the super bullpen and doesn’t think Crow realistically has a good shot at becoming a good starter.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 27, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

Why doesn't he?

He was drafted as a starter a couple of years ago. What makes you say that he can’t start? Sure, he didn’t do well in his first year, but that was his first year. You’re already writing him off on starting when he started all throughout college?

I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.

2012 is the year we shine.

by Jack Marsh on Jan 27, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions

i dont see where you're getting that from what scott said...

he said that he hopes that if he’s not in the rotation in kc that he’s in the rotation in AAA trying to become a solid starter rather than in KC in the pen

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

All I'm saying is that he had ONE bad year.

You seem to have not written off Luke Hochevar after 3 bad years. Why do you think that Aaron Crow is done?

I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.

2012 is the year we shine.

by Jack Marsh on Jan 27, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Let me clarify

I’m not writing off Aaron Crow in any way. He’s talented, but he has some issues. One of them is control. He walked a lot of batters in AA and the majors. 4.50 BB/9 is a real problem. Another issue which I think could be a huge problem for him as a starter is that he has two good pitches and then two pitches which are genuinely awful. Can he succeed as a starter with that kind of repertoire? Some do, but they are few and far between. Ogando has been pulling it off so far in Texas, but of course he’s also only walking 2.5 batters per 9 innings.

So I am skeptical that Crow will be able to succeed as a starter in the majors (and by that I mean becoming even average) unless he either significantly improves his control, or developes a serviceable third pitch, or both. I have never given up on him. I really think he should have spent 2011 working on his control and secondary pitches in the minors. I think he should be in AAA or AA in 2012 doing that. I don’t think he’s ready for a MLB rotation and I think his potential is wasted in the bullpen.

And, by the way, Luke Hochevar has not had three bad years. The ERA hasn’t been good, but I don’t think that’s mostly him. I think his defense independent stats are more telling about how he’s performed.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 27, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Just a quick comparison between Crow and Ogando's basic stats is pretty telling.

Crow’s BB/9 was a full point higher than Ogando’s when they were in relief. However, his K/9 was also a full point above Ogando’s while they were relievers.

Ogando’s BB/9 dropped 1.2 points after being converted into a starter. His K/9 also dropped by 1.7 points. I think that this is a good basis for determining how well Crow will do as a starter. However, Aaron Crow gave up more hits and home runs than Ogando out of the pen. Ogando’s H/9 and HR/9 each went up by a full point. That is a little discouraging, considering that Crow gave up 8 hits per 9, and gave up 1.2 homers per 9. Also, Crow’s WHIP was 1.387, compared to Ogando’s 1.128 WHIP.

Both of these guys are two-pitch guys. I think that Crow needs to develop a good off-speed before he can start in the majors, and I think that AAA or AA would be the best place to develop it next year. I think we could see him up anytime from the late-middle of this year to the beginning of next year.

So, I agree with you. I thought you were saying that you had completely given up on him.

I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.

2012 is the year we shine.

by Jack Marsh on Jan 27, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

*Ogando’s H/9 and HR/9 each went up by a full point in 2011.

I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.

2012 is the year we shine.

by Jack Marsh on Jan 27, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t have much of an opinion on whether Crow should be in Omaha’s rotation if he doesn’t make the MLB rotation—he’s probably best suited as a reliever, but giving him some time in AAA doesn’t have much downside.

I did say that I don’t think Crow’s curve is “genuinely awful.” While he was primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, Crow did mix in his curve against lefties with some success last year, so it’s hard to imagine that the curve is ‘awful.’

by kcdc1 on Jan 27, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

I would say that even if his destiny is a reliever, it would be good for him

to be in AAA, starting, and getting more time to work on his curve and change – they can only help him be better as a reliever.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 27, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

I would say that his curve has two big problems. The first is control. It’s all over the place. I don’t think he ever knows where it’s going to end up. The second is inconsistency. Sometimes it has really good break but not infrequently it has little break and hangs. So yes sometimes he’s going to spin a good curve that has nice break and goes where he wants it to. But much too often either the break isn’t good, or it’s completely out of control or both. Overall that makes for a pretty awful pitch. It needs work.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 27, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions