I’m trying to look at it from Hosmer’s perspective, but I can’t get past the idea that a 22yo would turn down $45mm guaranteed with another $45mm if he plays well.

Maybe I need to look at this from Boras’ perspective, but that just makes me feel like I sold my soul.

You don’t ingratiate yourself to one of (if not the top) young players you’re likely to have for the next 6 years by giving him a take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum after his first season. Either side could change its mind in the years to come, and the circumstances surrounding his performance, health, desire for security vs. a huge payday, etc. could all change. Souring the relationship at such an early stage with heavy-handed and shortsighted business tactics probably isn’t the way to go.

That might be selective sampling I thought, so lets lower than to guys that had 300 PAs. You add:

Tony Horton
Keith Hernandez
Will Clark
David Ortiz
Tony Horton
Joe Cunningham

Horton had psychological issues that prematurely ended his career. Cunningham was a one-time All-Star in the 1950s who didn’t age well.

Too bad the Rockies scooped up Moyer.

I’d only add that they can be stat based if the stats are about playing time (games, PA, ip, etc.).

Gold gloves don’t always mean great defense, but they usually recognize good players, so if Hosmer wins a gold glove, he’s probably doing something to earn an extra $2mm. All-star appearances mean you probably had a good first half, that might be worth $1mm. Silver slugger and MVP voting would probably overlap a lot, but if Hosmer wins the silver slugger at 1B, or puts up numbers like Gordon in 2011, he deserves at least $15mm for the year. Playing time means that you stayed relatively healthy and productive, which is worth something. And I think milestone incentives are allowed; if so, if Hosmer was able to rack up 200 HR or 2000 hits over 10 years in KC, he’d deserve an extra $10mm.

So, it’s easy for me to make this work from KC’s perspective. It’s harder for me to make it work from Hosmer’s perspective, because he might be very good, but never great enough to reach those incentives. I think a creative front office and agent could find some ways to do this though.