What Will Happen If Wil Myers is Tearing Up AAA Pitching?
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 31, 2012 11:56 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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PrintIf seems that Wil Myers will begin the season in either AA or AAA. After struggling a bit in 2011 (0.254/0.353/0.393), which was attributed to a knee injury, he destroyed the Arizona Fall League (0.360/0.481/0.674). His OPS in the AFL (1.156) was better than the one Eric Hosmer hit in AAA (1.107) before he was called up at the beginning of the 2011 season.
What happens if in 2012 Myers repeats what he did in the AFL in AAA and forces the Royals to call him up? The Royals outfield is set for 2012 with Alex Gordon in LF, Lorenzo Cain in CF and Jeff Francoeur in RF. There isn't any more room in the OF. Is he going to be moved to CF where he has played a total of 13 games with the Royals? Will the Royals sit Alex Gordon after coming off one of the best seasons ever as any Royal has ever experienced? Will management's poster boy Frenchy be forced to sit? Will Wil be forced to the bench or will he just stay in the AAA?
The more I think about the situation, the more I don't have a clue what will go down. The best move, in my opinion, would be to sit, trade or release Francoeur to make room for Myers. Too bad the Royals just signed a pretty much untradeable player for $13.5 M for the next 2 years. The team leader and mentor has always been a great sport when asked to sit on the bench. I just don't see the Royals making this move. Francoeur should not have been part of any future plans for the Royals to begin with and should be the first to sit if Myers hits lights out.
The move I see happening is that the Royals will replace which ever outfielder is struggling the most at the plate. I just hope it isn't Gordon at the time. The Royals have messed around with Gordon too much in recent years to rule it out. Cain has a good chance to be struggling at the plate, but do the Royals think Myers handle CF? Truthfully, I have no idea what Dayton Moore and his brain trust will do in this position.
If the situation arises that Myers is hitting good enough to force his hands on the MLB, the team will have to make a hard, and hopefully good, decision.
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Sign Jackson, and if Myers rakes
then promote him and make Frenchy and Chen VIP Ushers at Kauffman. Chen can tell jokes, sell the rest of the “C’Mon Chen!” t-shirts, and give language lessons. Frenchy can hold court in the Frenchy Quarter, buy people beers, have a between inning feature called the “Nut Shot Cam”, and have impromptu seminars where he teaches fans how to approach the game, teammates, and life. Judge can be his personal assistant/intern.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 12:08 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Atomic Nad Taps
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I would add Billy Butler to the list of pieces that might get moved.
Butler gets traded and Frenchy and Gordon will rotate at DH.
Is it 2012 yet?
by Gantz9 on Jan 31, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
If Billy gets moved, I hope he somehow ends up in Detroit and gets to play in the field again
by Loose Seal on Jan 31, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I don't know
I don’t really see any realistic Billy Butler trade possibilities in which we would get anything close to his value back in return. A team would either have to be a competitor in the AL with flexibility for the DH spot (maybe Texas but unlikely) or if they are in the NL they have to be desperate for offense, and have a huge hole at 1st base. Also, Billy would have to have a career year for him to be attractive on the trade market. He’s a very good hitter, but a team would need to know that he is going to be a great hitter if they are going to move on him. So basically, I think either Billy is a Royal for the remainder of his contract, or they trade him in a move that we will all be very disappointed with.
by YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble on Feb 1, 2012 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
Sensible comment there
Billy’s an above average DH (if I remember right he’s like 2.0-2.5 WAR a year) and he’s not good at anything but driving liners into the gaps, hitting 20 HR and 40 2B, and drawing enough walks to keep his OBP around .360. He’s also durable: 155 games a year.
Which is a very useful skill, especially if you play in the AL Central and need somebody who can hit. No one would give us enough for Butler, especially with his team-friendly contract. Keep him, use him, watch him whack line drives, and damn Detroit’s eyes.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
by Juancho on Feb 1, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
As a Met Fan, I know French can't by CF
But what about moving him there?
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Because it would be a complete disaster?
Any marginal positives of Frenchy’s bat over an average CF would be completely destroyed by his horrible range. You’d also be effectively giving up on Cain ever being anything more than a 4th OF.
But hey, Miguel Cabrera is a “third baseman” again, so there’s that.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
I mean...
Assuming can’t trade Frenchy, the only other option is to trade Butler and move Gordon to DH. I really don’t like that option either…
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2012!
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You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter
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They'd put Myers there before Frenchy
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 31, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I Always Thought
Gordon could play CF without embarrassing himself.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm Pretty Sure
He’s better than Melky.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In center, I wholeheartedly disagree.
Gordon’s routes are still pretty suspect, despite the Gold Glove.
Melky's Routes Were
No better.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Well this is why we disagree.
I think Melky’s routes were pretty good, but just didn’t have the wheels.
Probably a chicken/egg situation
Your routes can end up looking much better if you have the wheels to make up for an initial misjudgment.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
I would guess he's trade bait
I mean I guess we can hope that Frenchy gets off to a hot start and we can trade him to Brian Sabean or Ned Coletti, but those odds aren’t great. If Dayton signed him to a two year extension, and if Gordon isn’t eligible for free agency til 2014, my guess is that Myers was intended to be trade bait all along.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 12:23 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, sadly.
The Francouer extension essentially implies Myers will be traded.
Yeah, this is my thought
As much as I hate to think about Myers getting moved, it might make sense though if we could get a good, young cost-controlled pitcher in return. Frenchy as the centerpiece of a deal could never bring back anything good, but Myers as the centerpiece of a deal could.
I think more that Wil will get the Desmond Jennings treatment
But I also think they might bench Frenchy if he can’t keep a .300 OBP.
I could also see them put Myers in CF and just sacrificing OF defense even if Cain is playing well. If his bat is that good, it might be worth it. He can’t be any worse than Melky last year.
But I also think they might bench Frenchy if he can’t keep a .300 OBP.
I think you mean “.240 batting average”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The whole idea here is that Myers is tearing up AAA.
Jennings was doing well in AAA, but wasn’t necessarily tearing it up.
They might trade Frenchy, but its probably more likely
Yost will start sitting Francoeur more against right-handed pitching in favor of Myers, playing off of Francoeur’s historically wacko splits. To clear a roster spot, it probably means Maier gets put into a package at the break, with a random reliever/other prospect, for pennant assistance, should the occasion present itself.
On another subject (ish), personally, I think ‘12 is the year we’re all going to be glad we have Billy Butler; the stats say we should have been gladdened for a while, but likely more so this coming year.
by Cap Midnight on Jan 31, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Oh and just for clarification.....
wacko splits = crazy eyes.
OT - Are new comments showing up yellow or at all?
I am having to refresh to see new comments.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 31, 2012 12:35 PM EST reply actions
The comments are showing up fine for me in Chrome
by Connor Moylan on Jan 31, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
OK guys, I am using Chrome also.
weird.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 31, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Moose could struggle at the plate and get replaced by Gordon.
Myers takes Gordon’s place. Management messes with Moose’s MLB service time.
I would be shocked if they moved Gordon back to 3B
I hope they have learned to stop jacking him around.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I don't think it is likely that Gordon would move back to 3rd.
Obviously, this article and the responses are based on entirely hypothetical situations.
Buddyball disagreed with the hypothetical I posted by responding in a preferable, adult manner. I don’t understand why you need to interject needless bad attitude.
It really wasn't that bad.
I just don’t think it does anything for discussion to put forth almost impossible scenarios.
It's a realistic possibility at least
Considering what he did when he didn’t have a knee infection in AA, and what he did in the AFL, and how everyone loves his tools and talent, and that the PCL is a great hitter’s league.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
He’s ready for his graduation ceremony.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I think Myers is going to start the year in AA
and that he will not get called up no matter how much he is raking this season. He would have to play RF, and I think Francoeur is almost untouchable.
This is the best prediction I've seen so far.
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 31, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
Francoeur is untouchable this year, though I don’t agree for 2013.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Perez better hit or not get too comfortable behind the plate
Jokes aside, Moore signed Frenchy to the two-year deal before Myers went crazy in the AFL. I bet he wished he had waited now, but he did not. It probably means that Moore is committed to keeping Myers in the minors until September, unless someone gets hurt or Frenchy turns back into a pumpkin. Something then will have to give next offseason.
by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2012 12:41 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good point about Myers doing that in the AFL after the Francoeur contract.
Moore might be regretting it, but he should also be regretting his inability to foresee these issues.
How much does the AFL compare to AA or AAA?
Is it comparable or is it easier to hit in that league? Is that enough to move a guy a level?
I don’t think Myers would have a problem going to AAA but personally i would like to see him in AA for a couple months then the rest of the season in AAA and ready for the 2013 season.
Others can correct me if I'm way off...
But I think the AFL is mostly AA prospects, but probably some AAA and High-A players mixed in. Lots of legit prospects though.
I think that's about right (but to be clear, I really don't know)
Also, I think that hitting environment is pretty power friendly. The ball always carries well in Arizona.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Hitting environment cannot be forgotten.
And actually, now that I think about it more, the pitching is not at the same level of hitting for the most part. I think that’s just because legit pitching prospects get shut down…for the most part.
Yeah
AFL usually has lots of top hitting prospects but few top pitching prospects. Teams are very cautious about pitching prospects, and between inning limits and the extremely favorable hitting environment, teams rarely send top pitching prospects. The exceptions are usually guys who missed time (like Duffy and Monty in 2010) or recently drafted college players who signed late (Crow in 2009).
With Myers’s stock rising after the AFL, I think it was more the fact that he looked really good in front of half of every team’s scouting department and every semi-respectable prospect writer more than just the stats themselves.
The Surprise Sagaro's hit .306/.387/.525...as a TEAM
Everyone here need to calm the f*ck down over Wil’s performance in the AFL.
It means almost nothing. They play on HS sized fields, and the ball carries pop flies out to the parking lot.
Also, it was 23 games! That is the definition of SSS.
Surprise Stadium LF 350, CF 400, RF 350 (one of the bigger parks)
Seriously, the HS field i played on was bigger than that.
That's a relatively large park by MLB standards
Only one major league park is at least 350 down left field (Wrigley), two are at least 350 down right field (Wrigley, Coors) and 14 are 400 or shorter to center.
"Put that in your pipe and smoke it."
by Hal McRae's Telephone on Feb 1, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
what's your point? you played on a goofy high school field
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
our high school baseball field actually had no fences
a well struck ball could go a really long way
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
a well struck ball on our high school field could take out the windshield of a joco mom escalade on state line road...
too bad it didnt ever happen
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Rockhurst?
SM South here.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
"Rockhurst, Rockhurst, don't feel blue
Pem-Day’s got some faggots too!"
—South chant
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
yeah...that wouldnt fly anymore...even public schools have some sort of standards now
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
"Cigarette ashes, cigarette butts
We got Rockhurst by the nuts!
Pull, South, pull!"
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
But Gopherballs is right that the big deal isn’t his AFL numbers, it is the evaluation of everybody who saw him there and were blown away by his talent. And then you have his AA numbers (at a young age) when he wasn’t dealing with that knee infection. There’s a lot to love about Myers right now.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Not enough to start him at AAA though. The AFL month was nice, but it just doesn’t mean much beyond showing that he was healthy again.
Wil Myers needs to prove that he can dominate in AA before even thinking about AAA or an actual call up.
I know that was the theme of this post and thats all great and fun to dream about.
In reality, he isn’t getting called up regardless of performance, nor should he.
Exactly...
He hasn’t shown he can dominate AA. Furthermore, spots are taken at the ML level and there is no reason to put him on the fast track (which some might call rushing). When he dominates AA, then we can talk about AAA.
And why waste the extra cheap control year?
It would be tragic if Wil accumulates meaningful service time this season.
KC as an org needs Myers to stay healthy and gain another full year of experience in the minors in ’12
I think his AA performance -- not not dealing with a fluky infection -- is enough to start him in AAA
Do you think that minor leaguers should only be promoted once they have dominated a level? If so, then few prospects would get promoted. They need to perform well at a level. Myers has.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
No need to rush him scott.
He was barely even avg on his own team (.268/..345/.398).
He just turned 21 a month ago. He will be fine for a couple months in AA then a July promo up to AAA like Moose in ’10. Then in ’13 you start him off in AAA and bring him up in june (again like moose)
I'd promote him when he's ready
He looks ready for AAA. You keep hanging your hat on his overall numbers, including when he was adjusting to a new level and when he was injured. You apparently don’t care at all about how he performed when he was healthy and adjusted to the level. I do. He has the talent and the performance. He’s ready for AAA. And if he performs well there, I’d have him as the Royals starting RFer (or LFer) on about April 20, 2013.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
another couple months in AA wouldnt hurt him...
but it could let him stagnate….if he’s ready in their eyes, he should move on
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Not many (if any High-A players)
It’s meant for advanced prospects, so AA, AAA, and new draftees from the college ranks typically. Each club can elect to send two players below Double-A, which would typically (but not always) be those college draftees.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
It may depend on several factors
1) Are the Royals in contention at the trade deadline?
2) What kind of year is Francouer having? Is he tradeable?
3) Injuries (somebody take a mallet to Frenchy’s knee)
2010 = The beginning of a dynasty
He'd have to be having a pretty good year to be tradeable.
Many organizations are unconvinced, I’m sure.
A repeat year would do it. We might have to eat some salary but not much. He’s a RH bench bat with a good RF rep. A contender will be interested.
by WURoyal on Jan 31, 2012 8:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Frenchy is the odd man out
I would start Myers in AAA, if he rakes then Frenchy goes at the All-Star break. The only way this shouldn’t happen is if the Royals are in contention. Then you stand pat and he gets to rake in AAA all season.
Maybe, just maybe, Myers doesn't get called up at all...
no matter how much he rakes. There’s no apparent hole in the outfield. It’s not impossible to imagine that he can destroy AA pitching for the entire season, giving the Royals his services until 2019, instead of 2018.
By the way, I’m not necessarily as bothered by a potential Gordon trade, if he can bring back a 5+WAR SP, and he gets replaced in the outfield by a version of Myers that’s killing AAA this season.
Nick Swisher is hands^h^h^h^h^h delicious.
I agree
Lorenzo Cain raked and he was older than Wil and they didn’t call him up. Wil isn’t coming up unless there is an injury. Dayton believes in calling a guy up a year too late than a year too early.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
unless there's a need:
Hos, Moose, Perez
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 31, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
In fairness to the Angels,
I think it’s somewhat difficult to actually evaluate what they have in their prospects as their home ballpark along with much of the parks in their division in the PCL skews everything to the offensive side of the equation.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
By home ballpark,
I mean in AAA – SLC.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
elite prospects skip AAA all the time
and he was up to fill a void and will start in AAA this year…they were trying to win and he made them a better team than the alternatives, so they pushed him with likely no long term harm
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, trade Gordon for a good SP...
But let’s be honest, he’s not going to bring a 5+ WAR SP unless he’s raking through June, and then the starting pitching is upgraded with a similar loss in the outfield.
I don't think a team that wants a OF with only 1.5 years left of service time
Is going to want to trade away pitching, would they? More likely we will deal Gordon for prospects.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I actually am not sure that is not a bad idea
Gordon’s 2011 could have been a massive fluke
batter nine you sucky
You don't think the Mariners would have taken Gordon in a trade this winter?
Pineda was well on his way to 5 WAR last year before tiring.
Nick Swisher is hands^h^h^h^h^h delicious.
They might have, perhaps even likely that they would have...
But Pineda is not proven, so it makes the Mariners more willing to deal…as we saw.
I doubt it
Unless they’ve deluded themselves into thinking they are close to contention.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
At least according to the news reports
Seattle had a list of four elite hitting prospects with virtually no service time (Montero, Lawrie, and two others who the media have not yet identified) that it would trade Pineda for and contacted those teams. Toronto turned down trading Lawrie, but the Yankees were willing to move Montero. If Seattle called Kansas City, it would have been for Hosmer, not Gordon.
@@@He's A Lock@@@
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2012 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
I heard that Seattle called KC first and offered Pineda
for Christian Colon, David Lough, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress, but NO DICE
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2012 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I would've quit on this team forever
if they’d traded Hosmer for Pineda. I’d be fine if it had been Myers or even Moose, but no way we let go of our Lord.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 2, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
its pretty unlikely that myers rakes like he did in the AFL
frenchy wont be as bad as kila was last year, so it wont be a need. also, the super 2 is going to be somewhere around the trade deadline, right? I know i’ll be alone in this thought, but i think that moore would be willing to eat some money to trade frenchy at the deadline. Frenchy for $5 million (with the royals eating 3) for 2 months plus 2013 wont be too bad for a contender…and contenders love trading for frenchy.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 1:13 PM EST reply actions
Why would he eat money?
He just signed the guy to an extension.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
and thats never happened before...
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Examples of a team signing a guy to an extension and trading him a six months later?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
why is it any different than a guy being traded after signing as a FA?
b/c that happens all the time
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
When does that happen?
If you’re talking about one year contract guys, then yea, that happens because those are short-term fixes and everyone knows it. If you sign a guy to a multi-year deal, you’re saying “he is in my future” and you’re not going to trade him a few months later.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
He was pretty much a part time player
And they didn’t trade him until a year after they signed him to an extension. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the Royals dealt Frenchy next winter, but I don’t think its at all likely.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
and its not particularly likely
that myers is banging on the door in AAA AND that frenchy is struggling. i was really worried about them trading myers for a jurrjens type, but dayton has shown me that he knows how valuable myers is.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
To be more accurate.
Moore has shown you that he understands Myers is worth more than Jurrjens. I don’t think we have much more information than that, except that we assume Dayton generally agrees with scout-types like Goldstein, Law, and Sickels (just to name a few).
Moore knows he’ll need to reload with prospects to keep the payroll affordable one our premier guys hit their 2nd 3rd and 4th years of arb.
by WURoyal on Jan 31, 2012 8:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
GMDM Could Learn
A thing or two from KW
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Please,
How many terrible contracts do they have on that team?
Who has (by far) the worst farm in all of baseball?
Willy has run that team into the ground.
If you were being sarcastic, then I apologize.
The farm system falls mostly on Reinsdorf.
He doesn’t like paying draft picks over slot. He was the biggest proponent among owners for the new draft spending rules.
williams trade prospects away like crazy as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
He kind of has to.
With the way Reinsdorf is willing to spend, Williams never has a stocked minor league system. So he can’t really project a team around the 1-2 prospects he might have that could do anything. He might go too far sometimes, but I can see where he is coming from.
That font means sarcasm
It’s the sarcasm font
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
but then is his sarcasm font not sarcastic??!?!?
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!! i can’t tell up from down!
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 1, 2012 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Accepted
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
you think?
even better…i really dont think moore is going to block myers with frenchy. its just not him MO…top prospects play when they’re ready
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
The only similar example we have is Hosmer, right?
Kila was struggling and Hosmer came up because he was killing AAA. If Myers is killing AAA, it’s a little different because Frenchy won’t be playing as bad as Kila and management obviously likes Frenchy more than they liked Kila.
Can't
Myers doesn’t have PEREZENCE
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
If the Tigers can play Cabrera at third
then I could even play GM. Take that, Judge.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
To be more fair, doesn't pretty much EVERY high school kid who is drafted play a non-1B infield position?
Unless they’re really fast and athletic, which means they play CF. It’s not too often that you find a kid who was on a high school team that was so good, or whose defense/athleticism was already so bad already at age 18, that they just stuck him at 1B.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Billy Ray Played
3B.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
yes but, billy ray was a preachers son
by DickHowser4ever on Jan 31, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
I Almost Karaoked
That song one night. Probably a good choice not to.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
The Bartender Was
6’5" and a flaming homosexual. We all know him as Big Gay Eric. I would have done it in a baritone.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
Okay, I think that's probably less fair
I see your point, but I was just saying that Myers at 2B wouldn’t sound so crazy if the Royals hadn’t moved him to catcher and then outfield.
The guy in the background looks like he was in the Karate Kid.
I don’t think it is William Zabka, though.
I'm not talking about moving him to 2B
Just saying that it could have been his natural position before getting drafted — but more likely was SS.
he was a 3b and an outfielder
and i think he played some catcher in hs…no ss or 2b
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I wrote it on my arm with a sharpie and dated it.
Above it I wrote, “Useless Predictions That Wil Never Happen”
In this Future's game video,
He says in HS, he was an infielder who never played catcher
“…a 3rd base, SS guy, pitcher…”
This is my favorite (non action) video of Myers. You can really sense his confidence as a player coming out.
Strange sidenote: I’m not 100% sure, but at the end it sounds like the interviewer tries to make a (creepy) masturbation joke as to why he has built up such callouses on his hand.
True.
I firmly believe that if he was right handed he’d be playing third.
And I guess Moose would still be at SS.
And Butler would bitch a whole lot less.
If Hosmer were right-handed Moose would be at first
More than likely.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
No reason to put anybody but Alcides at short
He’s my favorite player. I firmly believe he’s going to play 15 years, rack up eight or so Gold Gloves, and hit decently enough to be the number one comp for Ozzie Smith. 2.5 WAR/season average. All we need is a .310 OBP out of him, and he’s still got time to improve.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I know the team has dealt with him in a boneheaded manner in the past..
but I don’t seriously think Gordon is going to do anything to get demoted, short of typing out the entire script to Orgazmo with Logan Morrison on Twitter.
"There is nothing shrewd about running a red light and later finding out it kept you from being hit by an asteroid." - philofthenorth
by KeepItCopacetic on Jan 31, 2012 1:18 PM EST reply actions
Even with his injury issues, given his struggles in AA last sesaon I would be a bit surprised if Myers started in AAA
Although if he destroys AA from the get-go, I could see a pretty rapid promotion to AAA. In any case, that moves the timetable to mid-summer at the soonest, I would think (I’m speculating, I know). Outside of some surprising turn of events (e.g., a couple of months of devastating AAA pitching and/or an injury to Francouer or Gordon), I don’t really see Myers coming to the majors before September.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2012 1:34 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, why do people assume he will start in AAA?
Outfield spots are all taken and despite everything else Myers hasn’t shown that he can actually hit AA hitting.
A quick promotion (a month of Hosmer’s AAA raking stats last year for instance) could get him to Omaha. But even if he continues smashing the ball, the Royals should keep him there. Why?
1) Service time manipulation—don’t want Myers, Hosmer, and Moose to all become FAs so close together.
2) Can he play CF well? I can definitely see them trying Myers in center if they’re stuck on Frenchy and Gordon. Versatility and his bat would be fantastically valuable.
Of course, this is predicated on him hitting really well. If he starts off slow and in AA like I think he will be, this isn’t an issue.
by Yodazilla on Jan 31, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I hope you're right that they try Myers in CF, but I kind of doubt it.
Though that was speculated when he was drafted.
I actually haven't seen video of him in the field.
Just saying that’s how he was billed.
Maybe you're right.
Why not find out? This is an org. that tried Moose at SS, Butler in RF, and Teahen at 2B (in the bigs!). Why not give him an extended look?
Myers will never play CF
the only reason he played 13 games there in the minors is because he was learning the position.
CF is a common assignment for new OFs because you get the best read on the ball off the bat.
It has nothing to do with finding out whether he can play there. He can’t. He won’t.
Pretty sure he'll chill in AAA until one of Francoeur, Gordon or Myers is traded
I don’t see why Francoeur should be considered untradeable. His contract isn’t a tremendous deal by any means, but it’s basically market rate. If Frenchy doesn’t fall off a cliff all the way back to his 2008-2010 (non)production level, someone will want him.
Probably use him as an injury replacement or when one of the guys are struggling
Injuries happen. It’s inevitable, better to plan for it now than later
Guys struggle at some point during the season, instead of letting him continue his sucking (kila), use Myer as a temporary replacement
What if they trade Gordon?
I mean he’s two years from FA, maybe the extension talks haven’t gone well. He’s at the height of his value right now. The organization seems to think he has trouble being coached – or at least did. Maybe they think 2011 was flukey. Maybe it was. You could probably get a similar haul to what the Stros got for Hunter Pence (1B Jonathan Singleton (B+ prospect), P Josh Zeid (C prospect) and P Jarred Cosart (B prospect). It would provide players who will be here when the Royals are contenders in 2014-2016 rather than Gordon who is here while they are trying to get to contention in 2012-2013.
Would it be the worst thing in the world to trade Gordon?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 1:55 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
i'd want more than that
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
that nothing will be alex gordon and i'll be alright with it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
It could be Alex Gordon
In two non-contending years though. I’m fully on board with trading Gordon if the right deal comes along.
If Gordon does not agree to an extension this offseason, Moore would likely consider him in play
Pence might be shooting a little too high. Pence had 2 1/2 years of club control left at the time of the trade, or one year more than Gordon (assuming the soonest he would get traded is sometime during this season, as most teams are already set). And Pence had established a longer track record of being “good.” Gordon could bring a good return, but the Royals would not get a 5 WAR pitcher or multiple top prospects for him.
I think I've said this before, so sorry if I'm repeating it, but I agree that that if they can't get an extension done
they need to seriously look into what they can get for Gordon. He’s got surplus value in these last two arbitration years. I agree that the perception might not be there, but I do think he’s superior to Pence: a better hitter (once you take into account league context, especially), better fielder, and cheaper the next two years.
I agree they aren’t going to get a major-league ready ace or a Montero/Lawrie type for him, but they could get at least one or two upside guys further away, I think. It wouldn’t have to be a monster return for me to consider it a better bet than than rolling the dice on the team being able to contend during Gordon’s last season with the Royals in 2013. And I’m a Gordon fan.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I meant to add
that I think this is how the Royals should deal with the Gordon situation no matter what is going on with Myers/Francouer/etc.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I would personally take Gordon over Pence
but in real world trade value, I don’t think the Royals could expect to get as much for Gordon as the Astros got from Phillies (relying on the prospect grades — one B+, one B, and one interesting C — not taking into account those particular players). I am assuming the Royals would not trade him until mid-season, as too teams are already set now, so the service time would be 2 1/2 for Pence, 1 1/2 for Gordon. There is a difference in cost, but a large part of that is simply the extra year for Pence (Pence was making $7 million last year, Gordon will make $4-5 million this year). Teams value conistency and Pence has certainly been more consistent.
That said, the Royals should be able to get something pretty good for Gordon and explore a trade if the extension falls through.
One problem with comparing the Pence deal
is that the Astros (even with their recent incompetence) were dealing with Ruben Amaro Jr. Not the worst GM, but not a lot of GMs worse.
I'm a huge Gordon fan
And I think its at least worth exploring. It depends a lot on how the Royals do this year I suppose, although the longer you wait, the less value Gordon has.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You might say you're his "#1 fan," amirite?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Said in his best...
…Omar Little voice.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
No, that's the pimp Victor who was killing his girls when they left him on SVU this afternoon
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:28 AM EST up reply actions
I think you're using irrelevant information and lack of information to spur discussion.
At the very least, we have no reason to think extension talks are not going well. He’s obviously not trouble for being coached now. At height of value? I’ll give you that one, but hey—it’s possible he’s even better.
Don't you mean "What 'Wil' happen?"
The name of that song played at KC Comets games in the '80's was Giorgio Moroder's "The Chase." Now you know.
by labbadabba on Jan 31, 2012 1:56 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
How bad would Myers be in CF?
If he’s a +4.0 hitter and a -0.5 fielder, that’s pretty good, more than I’d expect from Lorenzocaine. The Royals would be insane to jack Gordon around anymore; let him be the left fielder till the cows come home. I’d prefer to move Frenchy, or make him the 4th OF, and let Myers play right in 2013, but that’s not going to happen.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
that comment
subliminally made my mouth numb
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, it's my line
If anybody wants to look it up he’ll see that I thought it up and used it first. I am proud of my coinage and will not let anyone steal the credit.
The other nickname I came up with was the Big Yunit, which I had hoped never to use again, but oops, Dayton had a brainfart.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Rany mentioned it 12/21/10
Also, Lorenzo Cain is an awesome name – to this dermatologist’s ears, it sounds like a breakthrough anesthetic. "For Maximum-Strength Pain Relief: Try New Lorenzocaine!" I think I’m going to call him the Painkiller from now on.
When did you “claim” it?
The earliest use I can find of myself using it
is July 27, 2011. (Checked further: May 17, 2011.) I am still positive that I thought it up; I only looked at this site’s archives and Google.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Well, thank you, sir!
It’s nice to see a true gentleman who will accept the word of another gentleman. I invite you to a drink of my finest whiskey.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I prefer Basil Hayden's or Bookers
Do you have any of that in your flask?
I will gladly return the favor Tuesday for a drink today.
Best I can do is Jameson's
Good stuff, reasonable price.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
For those on limited incomes like me
Vat 69 is a decent Scotch that is very cheap. You wouldn’t go out of your way to sip it, but mixed or with soda or on the rocks it’s fine.
In Spain J&B has something like 60% of the Scotch market, and Ballantine’s has the rest. You’ll see Famous Grouse (which is really what they drink in Scotland) and Dewar’s. They also buy a good deal of single malts.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Oban or GTFO
Vat 69 was Lewis Nixon’s favorite. Dewar’s is a decent-ish cheap option. I like to refer to it as the Bud Light of Scotch.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 1, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
An admirable American war hero
Sounds like he hit the Vat 69 too hard, though.
I’m not a whiskey snob. I really can’t tell the difference unless it’s really obvious (Kentucky Tavern vs. Knob Creek, say).
I am fortunate enough to be here because both my grandfathers were not called on for WWII (one failed the eye test, the other was a railroad maintenance man and therefore exempt, and both were married with kids and over 35 anyway.)
My Uncle W.B., my grandad’s brother, was in the 36th Infantry (Texas National Guard) that got thrown at the Germans at Cassino, and he survived in fine shape. He was a pretty tough guy, a sheet-metal worker who could hit a squirrel with a .22.
My Uncle Homer was also in the 36th, and he came home unfit for work after what he saw. He lived 50 years on a VA pension. The Texas state mental health center was in Terrell, not far fom Dallas, and Homer lived in the city (to be close to the hospital) there.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I don't think he blows anyone away with his fielding
One of the BA guys projected Gordon to be in RF and Myers in LF down the road because he thought Gordon had the better arm, and Myers isn’t especially fast, either.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
He'd be -1.0, then, if forced to play CF
I vote we don’t trade Gordon, and Frenchy is there, and Lorenzocaine is in center. If Will has a mediocre season next year, then no problem. If he’s hitting .600, though, then Frenchy has to sit down, and be traded because a 2 WAR clubhouse guy corner outfielder with a great arm has value. Can Dayton deal with this concept?
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I think Myers will be around average in RF while he's still young.
But CF… I just don’t think his range is above average for RF, so I can’t see it being even average for CF. Over a full season, I would expect a UZR of -5 to -7.
13.5 million are you fucking kidding me
thats really the francouer deal i thought it was 6.5 mil over two years, what the fuck are we doing?
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
If they were
gonna do some stupid shit like that it should of been on cabrerra, fucking unbelievable. I can’t believe I missed a detail like that.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
you'd rather pay melky cabrera $13.5 million than frenchy? you're insane
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather not pay either of them
We should trade for Vance Worley.
by JKWard on Jan 31, 2012 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, dude, you swear too fucking much
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
the good lord
chose not to bless me with a fully functional brain and I have tourettes, cock shit fuck leonard nemoy
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, yeah?
Twat slit dick asshole gash piss tits cocksucker bastard son of a bitch Yuni.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
i mean douche
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Oh, yeah?
Enema colostomy catheter bidet condom spermicide diarrhea yeast infection Kendall.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
my uncle had a colostomy bag
when i was a kid and my my cousin was a real shithead and popped the thing when we were in ace hardware one day I swear to tebow that the hazmat crew had to come take care of that fucking ordeal.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
What an asshole, treating his father that way
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
yeah I'd say
considering I’m pretty sure his asshole fell out on isle 3
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
We were going for the record
Something much more nonsensical than the average Scott vs. Anybody debate.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
I'd say you pretty much destroyed the previous record
Excessive swearing, Leonard Nimoy, Colostomy, and male genitalia. How often are those combined?
Sounds
like my average Tuesday
Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell
by Dr. van Strijcker on Feb 1, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
The quote comes from a book by Rick Atkinson
on the history of the development of the US Army during WWII in Europe. So far he’s done the first book of the trilogy on North Africa, and the second book on the Italian campaign, and he’s working on the third book on France and Germany. Great stuff. He won a Pulitzer for one of the books.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
melky had
200 hits a ba over 300 with power not to mention be played pretty damn good in the field, yeah hes a better player than frenchy.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:20 PM EST reply actions
mother fucking
reply button
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
and odds are he's put that extra 30 lbs back on and he wont be better than frenchy next year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
niether one
of em are gonna be as good as they were last year and I still think melky will have the better year
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
201.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
I'm sure glad Francoeur is around for TWO MORE YEARS to potentially block Myers
That's called planning to win. Thanks Dayton.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 2:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
its all about
that sweet home atlanta, come from there and get paid
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Or to provide a bridge to him if he's not ready that soon
I’d love to see all of our prospects boom like Hosmer, but not all of them wil(l). Why assume that having Frenchy through 2013 will be a bad thing, Myers-wise? “Worst” case, we have a glut of good players, so one becomes trade bait. Oh, the horror of having Dayton Moore for a GM!
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Jan 31, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's
a bad thing when you think of the amount of money tied up in the guy when that money could of been spent on an sp where nobodys blocking that position.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I don't trust that Dayton Moore will do the right thing
Because he very often has not done the right thing. That also doesn’t mean that he’ll definitely do the wrong thing, but I’m certainly concerned. Is there a real chance that Moore will overvalue Francoeur, his light power, his arm and his intangibles? Certainly. Clearly if Myers becomes MLB-ready, Francoeur should be the one who goes. But I don’t have faith that Moore will see it that way. That’s a (potential) problem.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Calling Myers up in '12 would definitely be the wrong thing.
I would call 71 extra base hits, at least medium power.
I might have to start calling you, ‘The Exaggerator’
I would call 71 extra base hits, at least medium power.
A couple things here. First, I wouldn’t use a counting stat to determine a player’s skill. For power, I’d use ISO. Second, you’re using one year’s data to determine a player’s true talent level. That’s a mistake.
Francoeur’s career ISO is .162. In 2011 it was better than that. In each of the four seasons prior to that, his ISO was less than .162, usually significantly worse. In most years, league average ISO is about .150. So, all told, his power has been a little better than average. Of course this isn’t better than average for RFers. So I think it is accurate to say that he has light power. And what I mean by that is that he has some power — he’s not a slap hitter — but it’s not a whole lot of power.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
You can't avg all his seasons equally with '11. Last season must be weighted
MUCH more heavily.
You lawyers are so silly… Nice try though.
If you really want to do this
And not just pick his total extra base hits for 2011, then let’s do it. For projections, ZIPS uses a 5-4-3-2 weighted average. Let’s do that. That weighted average is .154, worse than his career average. Still silly?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
No reply, Bronzillo?
Normally I wouldn’t call you out, but after your condescension with the “silly lawyer” and “nice try” comments, I’m prepared to accept your apology. :)
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I cannot beat Scotty Greybox
Attrition will always win out in the end.
I still don’t see whats wrong with using xtra base hits. It’s not like I used RBI’s.
FWIW, for hitters, I prefer 3-2-1. Fuck 4 yrs ago. the last 3 is all that is relevant.
I still don’t see whats wrong with using xtra base hits. It’s not like I used RBI’s.
It’s not awful but rate stats are better for this purpose than counting stats. Also, different kind of extra base hits show different degrees of powers (doubles don’t equal HR’s, for instance).
FWIW, for hitters, I prefer 3-2-1. Fuck 4 yrs ago. the last 3 is all that is relevant.
If we’re looking for true talent level, I’d go with the methodology used by the best performing projection systems, not your guess or my guess as to what is best.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
OK,
but I didn’t exactly make up the 3-2-1 weight ratio. Ive found it commonly used, and I personally think anymore than 3 yrs isn’t relevant. I don’t particularly care what the “best performing systems” say. That is largely subjective anyway imo.
the 'best performing systems'
are judged on their merits…how is this subjective?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
show me how they are deemed the best
The results of the projection systems I have seen are ambiguous.
I could say that MY projection systems are actually the best. That would be subjective to my opinion.
On what site are their “merits judged” in competition with one another? Where is the data that shows the winner of this competition?
not saying your wrong, I just would like to see it.
im not sure where it is and i dont have time right now...
its out there though…the projections are compared with results and then ranked…im sure someone else will post it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Tom Tango has hosted "challenges" and other evaluations
the challenge is pretty confusing to me, I think it’s aimed at fantasy stuff, but here are the 2011 results
He also has done a more straightforward evaluations. He’s looking for someone else to do it for 2011. Here are the results for 2007-2010.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
thanks
Like I said, ambiguous.
The only sports prognostications I have ever been impressed with come from Vegas.
That's your reaction to this?
It’s all just “ambiguous” therefore your guesstimates and your methodologies are probably just as valuable as the results of the best projection systems?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 2, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
Yes
There are too many factors that go into why a team is surprisingly successful or disappointing that a computer is currently incapable of equating.
I would much prefer the prediction of a knowledgeable, intelligent, intuitive professional (or unpaid expert) on how a given team will perform than a “projection system”
I know you like them, but I find them hokey and more of a novelty at this point than a valuable, reliable tool.
Baseball is a very complex game. It can’t be predicted like chess moves. Not yet.
Some of those projection systems
were created by people who have worked and are currently working for baseball teams.
I guess those teams should have hired “knowledgeable, intelligent, intuitive professionals” instead.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong Matt,
But those systems were made to be used in conjunction with their own expert opinions as a tool. Not to actually do the predicting for them.
From what I can tell by reading the results of the “Forecasters Challenge” link you provided, the CAIRO system on its own, got blown out of the water by the human teams… though I not actually sure how each team is represented.
To my point:
Some of those projection systems
were created by people who have worked and are currently working for baseball teams.
and those people’s opinions are the one’s I would prefer over their own systems calculations.
I highly doubt they are one and the same.
Let's talk about you and me
The information that we have in front of us is stats and the projections that come from them. How do you propose we include “the prediction of a knowledgeable, intelligent, intuitive professional (or unpaid expert)” to the evaluation of a player? Where are you getting that information and those predictions from?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 2, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
My views of projections
somehow segued into those made of team performances and not as much individual players (which I don’t have as much of a prob with).
Reading back, it appears to have happened mostly in my own mind.
Sigh….Sorry man. I woke up today and was thinking we had been discussing team projection systems (I think I was thinking of CAIRO).
please call me an idiot.
But the team projections are just made from the projections of individual players. Individual player projections + playing time estimates = team projections.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 3, 2012 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
From what I understand, 5-4-3 closer to what systems use for hitters
(although it varies, I think Dan Szymborski once said he used 7-5-4-3 or something like that for hitters).
Marcel uses 3-2-1 for pitchers, and 5-4-3 for hitters, and I think the idea that pitchers’ true talent on average changes more from year-to-year (or something like that) is probably reflected with similar differences in more sophisticated other forecasting systems.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Two 2012 ISO projections for Francouer (warning, required doing math in my head)
Zips: .164 ISO (.273/.314/.437)
Oliver: .161 ISO (.271 /.312 /.432)
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
We're concerned if they're both trade bait...
that he would trade the wrong one. The one thing I do know that comforts me is Dayton’s statement about showing the young guys what they’re doing, showing them the process, which means not trading them away.
Why not just leave him in AAA???
I’m sure he will just spend all year at AAA. This is the only scenario I can see for bringing him up.
We’d have to be “in the hunt” at the break.
Myers would have to be KILLING the ball in AAA
One of our outfielders would have to have a sub .250 BA
I have a feeling that 2012 he’ll stay down. 2013 come up and transition into Francoeur’s RF position.
Guys I'm starting to freak out a little bit
We have so much SICK talent coming up. How on earth are we going keep them all :(
Team Payroll Average
N.Y. Yankees $201,689,030 $6,722,968
Kansas City 36,126,400 1,338,015
the same way
we kept carlos beltran, johnny damon, and jemaine dye
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
We won't keep them all.
Maybe one/two sign to long-term deals but the rest are FA. You can only hope we win a couple of championships while they are here and Moore restocks the pipeline.
"Yeah, the maple kind, right?"
The same way the Rays keep all their talent
Oh wait, they don’t. They JUST WIN BABY.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
simple, we win more games
NYY have a higher payroll because they continuously win
we’ll be lucky to have 1/10 of a full stadium with our current record
NYY have a higher payroll because they continuously win
I would suggest you educate yourself a little more on the reality of modern baseball economics.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 31, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
1/10th full? That's roughly 4,000 fans a game.
You sir greatly underestimate the blue and swollen members of Royals fans.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
by JKWard on Jan 31, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
Myers only sees KC if there is:
(1) an injury to an outfielder or Butler
(2) KC is not contending and Frenchy is traded
(3) its September (and KC is not contending)
by DickHowser4ever on Jan 31, 2012 2:50 PM EST reply actions
should read: Myers only sees KC in 2012
by DickHowser4ever on Jan 31, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Or Hosmer
Gordon moves to first (or maybe Billy). Either way opens up a spot.
"Yeah, the maple kind, right?"
Good point...
If Myers is tearing up the minors, then an injury to Gordon, Francoeur, Hosmer, or Butler becomes less problematic.
Or if he takes me up on my RoyalsRetro KC Sightseeing Tour 2012
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Just don't let him get stuck
in the “Mystery Spot.”
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Jan 31, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Simple solution
1) Trade Myers and Cain for Jair Jurrigenjenmenchman
2) Trade Sanchez to SF for Melky
3) Send Melky to Omaha for injury insurance
4) Move Getz to CF
5) Book Plaza Prade
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
Then what should I do while
waiting for my poptarts to finish toasting?
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
put the pipe down
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
But I am wearing my smoking jacket
while waiting for my poptarts
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KC_Satchmo on Jan 31, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm wearing my believe KC shirt
while its 65 degrees in kansas city on january 31st talking about the fucking royals, I must be braindamaged.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 3:02 PM EST reply actions
reply button
I will hunt your ass down and make you pay for makeing me look like a fool.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
for some reason i have a feeling that the reply button isnt the only time you look like a fool....
click reply then type your reply…you can do it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
looking back
you might be a little right, I once traded a johnny bench autographed card for a steve bono rookie I thought it was a good investment at the time, in the 4th grade I went to school wearing my underwear over my pants because batman was the fucking man, and then there was this stint in high school were i listened to More Than A Feeling for like 3 weeks straight, fucking Aerosmith rocks.
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
cant disagree on aerosmith...ive seen them in concert 3 times...awesome every time
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
hahahah
yeah
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
I Took That
As a non-sequitur and perfectly appropriate to end that post.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
While I do love More Than A Feeling,
I think you mean that other Boston band that actually rocks. Boston.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Kansas City Keith:
Makeing, i will hunt your ass down and make you pay for making me look like a fool.
I just get to
typing so fast and make alot of silly mistakes thanks for correction Brad
Shit + Shit = More Shit
by Kansas City Keith on Jan 31, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think Myers goes to AA again
He did well when healthy last season, but should probably spend some more time at that level. I was happy to see him do well in the AFL, but the pitching prospects there this fall were quite weak. I don’t think his performance against that quality of pitching should land him in AAA to start the season. Best case scenario for me is he does well in AA for half the season, and finishes the season adjusting to AAA. He’d be 22 for the 2013 season, and unfortunately the same problem might arise due to Frenchy’s contract, but hopefully the situation can be managed well by Moore. If he does turn into a good MLB player who comes up in 2013, it would help the window for contention become a little longer
I think he's ready for AAA
Certainly more ready than Monty was (who to this day has never performed well above the A-ball level). After his freak injury, Myers performed very well in AA. People keep talking about his AFL performance, but he performed near that level in July and August in AA as well. He looks ready for AAA to me. But Moore has put a roadblock in his path to the majors.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Anything is possible, but that kind of seems unlikely
Prospect evaluators never really loved Kila’s tools. He eventually mashed in AA and AAA but he didn’t have the great pedigree that Myers has. Prospect evaluators love his tools. So far he’s had both good tools and good stats. There’s good reason to be more optimistic about him than Kila.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Biggest difference
Kila was always knocked for a long swing/slow swing. Myers is promoted partly because of his bat speed. And his plate discipline is as good or better than Kila’s. We shall see.
Right, he was good at AA when healthy.
I wouldn’t mind seeing him start at AA to get in a groove, before being pushed up to AAA. He could well be ready, but there really is no rush due to the presence of a certain RF’er signed for two more years.
Yikes, that's the problem
Slowing a top prospect’s development due to the existence of a meh vet on the MLB team witha two-year guaranteed contract. Instead of a meh player getting 2/$13M in RF, there should be a meh place holder there merely filling a hole until Myers is ready.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Not a fun situation to be in if Myers performs well this season.
I don’t have a big problem with seeing a 21 year old spend the season at AA/AAA though. 2013 is another story if Myers is as advertised this year.
Exactly what I'm thinking
I don’t want Myers in KC in 2012. But if he’s ready, I’d sure want him in KC after Tax Day 2013. And if Francoeur blocks him in 2013, It’s really going to suck.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Except that 'meh' outfielder
Hit a 119 OPS+ last year and played nice defense.
I know it’s not likely he does that again, but the chances of him putting up numbers like that are infinitely higher than, say, Mitch Maier putting up numbers like that.
If Franceoour hits at a 115 OPS+ level with good defense, there’s not an issue with Myers being in AAA (again, assuming he gets there and is doing well).
Sure, if he replicates 2011 going forward, then he's nice to have (although I wouldn't love him blocking Myers)
But there’s no reason to expect him to replicate 2011 or perform just a touch worse than 2011. That’s the problem.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, no reason to expect him to do that
But I think you’re shortchanging him a bit. He’s not just some random 4th outfielder. He’s a starting-calibur RF with plus defense and who has recently had success.
I think he’s a below average RFer including slightly above average defense who recently had success and also had a lot of failure in the years immediately preceding that success. Below average players really aren’t that hard to find.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
From 2005-2007
Francoeur put up 8.1 WAR (per Fangraphs). He has skill and, unlike many others, was able to display them in the Major Leagues. He had a few (very) bad years, but his ability to repeat the success of his earlier years now is, I think, encouraging. He’s only 28 next year and not bound to immediately decline.
This all revolves around his true talent level, whatever that might be. But it seems many fans (not necessarily you though, Scott) are quick to forget that Francoeur had some good years, isn’t actually old, and retains most of his plus tools.
Exactly
There’s a reason that every projection system looks at the stats from the player’s last 3-4 years.
He’s only 28 next year and not bound to immediately decline.
I assume you are referring to decline due to age, and that’s true. But we should expect him to decline based on what appears to be his true talent level, and regressing to the mean.
But it seems many fans (not necessarily you though, Scott) are quick to forget that Francoeur had some good years
I think I’m giving them their proper weight.
and retains most of his plus tools.
What are his plus tools? Arm? Slightly above average power? That is all.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Only his wife knows whether he has a plus tool
He follows the Ten Commandments and all that stuff.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Shut yer filthy mouth.
Mitch can do anything.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Thoughts on Kosuke Fukudome?
If we had let Frenchy go, would anybody have liked to see a 1-year deal for Fukudome? I think I would have. He got paid $14.5M last year (Jim Hendry contract), but a 1-year deal would probably cost around the same for Frenchy’s 2012 deal or less.
I think much less
There seems to be no interest in him and he may return to Japan
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
He Blew Balls
For the money he made, IIRC.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2012 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
His home/road splits were god awful.
I’m not looking it up, but when I had him in fantasy a couple of years ago, I benched him every single time they were away from Wrigley and it worked. I’d rather MITCH start. Fuck Fukodome…See what I did there?
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 2, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Beyond Fukudome
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 2, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I completely disagree
They can’t assume that Myers will be major league ready this year, or even next year for that matter. He has to prove it first. If he proves it this year or next, they can make a decision on how to proceed there. But if the guys at the major league level are producing, then having major league ready talent in AAA is a good thing. I know it’s something we aren’t used to here in kc, but its how successful teams do it. That’s how the Tampa Bay Rays are doing it. Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings were ready for the show for at least a year before they were officially called up. Who was blocking them last season? But when they arrived, they both made an immediate impact, and are certified studs for sure. If this is the same path Myers (who just turned 21 mind you) takes, then we will have struck gold.
by YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble on Feb 1, 2012 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
matt moore was walking 4 per 9 in a ball a year ago
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
and wil myers had a sub 400 slugging% at uber power friendly nw ark last year
by YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble on Feb 1, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Just some context
1. Arvest Park is not very power friendly for RH hitters.
2. He hit much better than that after his knee infection was cleared up. He absolutely ranked in July and August.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Wil Myers AAA
If he hits .439 for the season, he’ll probably win MVP
OT: DM to be on Clubhouse Confidential tomorrow night
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
I head that also. Must watch TV.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 31, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
Actually it is not bad.
I get paid to talk about baseball. Most of the time I am just hammered doing it.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 31, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
A Fine Recommendation
For you and all the participants.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
Wow
That will be interesting. That’s like Barney Frank appearing on FOX NEWS/Michelle Bachman appearing on MSNBC.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If he rakes we will get a Sept call up
and will battle Frenchy for the starting spot in 2013. If loses, he goes back to AAA. If he wins, Frenchy either get traded (saying he has no trade value is silly) or be is our 4th OF. Simple really
you're forgetting that when dayton signs a guy that he gets to start no matter what....
regardless of if there is a top prospect behind him or not..
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Regardless of whether he can play baseball.
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 31, 2012 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Promises are made.
Promises are kept.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
evidence of these 'promises'?
you just assume that they were made
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
Are you saying that I assume Dayton has made promises to multiple FA’s with regard to how they will be used, or that he made a promise to Francoeur?
Yes, I assume Francoeur was made a promise before his contract extension. Moore values Francoeur very highly. That’s pretty obvious. Francoeur also desperately wants a full-time starter job. He’s said so many times. Yeah, I think Moore promised him a starting job. That doesn’t mean that he can’t trade him. But unless he’s performing genuinely badly, I don’t think Moore would want to trade him. Moore wants to win. And if you have a great guy in the clubhouse, bringing the team together, hitting with some pop, and covering a good deal of ground with the best arm in baseball (all of these are my speculation as to how Moore sees Francoeur), why would you want to get rid of him to make room for a prospect when you really don’t know if he’ll be even as good as Francoeur?
Do you think Moore signed Francoeur to a 2-year guaranteed deal for $13.5M thinking that he’ll just bench him or get rid of him as soon as Myers looks MLB-ready? Those two things just don’t go together.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
i think that frenchy wouldve jumped on $13.5 million guaranteed to be a 5th OF
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
and i dont think moore needed or thought he needed to make any more promises other than that
and i dont think melky was promised the job all year last year either…i think had he struggled we’d have seen cain. cabrera continued to excel. im assuming that’s the ‘promise’ you’re talking about?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Moore had to convince Francoeur to pass on the opportunity to hit the FA market after a good season
So I think Moore made Francoeur a promise. Moore also promised Francoeur the starting RF job when he first signed him. He also promised Melky the starting CF job (but not in perpetuity). He has made other promises before to other FA signees.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
i really dont get you sometimes...
we have reports from multiple sources of certain things (chen turning down more money) and you think those are ridiculous but then you take your theories based on nothing and state them as fact
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Based on nothing?
My theory that Francoeur was promised a starting RF job is based on something. It’s based on the fact that Moore has done this multiple times in the past, including with Francoeur when he first signed him. Is that something?
Also, it’s just a theory. I’m not pretending that it is definite fact. Whereas if someone reads one unsourced report that they like, they often believe it is verified fact. BTW, what were the multiple sources on Chen turning down more money. Mellinger and who else?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Is twitter legit or not?
In the Perez thread, people were called out for putting too much stock in a simple tweet. Here, we have people citing something from Boras’ mouthpiece and transforming that to “multiple reports” while that only says Cubs and Royals were talking to him.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
That said multi-year offers
I can’t access twitter at work, but does it speak to the size of the offer(s)?
Also, Heyman has a well known reputation for being Boras’s mouthpiece. Boras gives him rumors and Heyman posts them as inside rumors.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the link:
Lefty Bruce Chen has multiyear offers, tweets SI’s Jon Heyman. He says the Royals and Cubs are among the teams talking to Chen, with the Royals perhaps focused on him.
Chen, a 34-year-old Scott Boras client, has never had a multiyear deal in his career. This year for the Royals he posted a 3.77 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, and 34.6% groundball rate in 155 innings.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
So I ask again
Were there multiple sources on Chen turning down more money to sign with the Royals? Anyone beyond Mellinger?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
didnt chen say it as well?
and if you dont count that as another source, then it’s probably just one…i dont really think theres any good reason to doubt it though, other than to further the narrative that players always sign for the most money
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yes he did. I was going to mention that Chen
said it in a KC Star article, but I figured Scott would think that was a bogus source.
I thought Colorado made him a multi year offer also.
How about the whole Melky/Cain situation?
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 2, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
melky was really, really good for the entirety of the season...
at no point after opening day did it make sense to call up cain
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 2, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
No way they start his service time clock this year.
No matter how hard he rakes in AA or AAA. They know the pitching doesn’t get here until at least 2013.
I'd rather be watching baseball.
by Sisquatch Kids on Jan 31, 2012 11:53 PM EST reply actions
i dont think moore is intersted in having a guy rake in AAA for a year...
some guys will take adjustment time, moore would rather have that take place towards the middle end of this year rather than next year if he’s planning on competing next year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2012 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
Moore hasn't been greatly interested in service clock issues
The team wasn’t close and the pitching was even further away from getting the team into contention and Moore didn’t hesitate to call up Hosmer, Moustakas, Duffy and a bunch of RP’s.
My point here is that I don’t think service clock issues are going to hold Myers back. If he’s MLB-ready and there’s a spot for him, I don’t think Moore would hestitate to call him up. But that’s the problem. Moore has blocked him with Frenchy.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure I agree with that
he’s gamed a lot of players service time (Gordon, Butler, Hochevar). I don’t think a pitcher (especially one like Duffy — he ain’t Tim Lincecum) is one to worry about because of their various “pitcher issues.”
I guess you could make the argument in the case of Hosmer, but even there, Moore at least seemed to try and keep Hosmer down long enough that he might have made the old Super-2 cutoff or whatever, and he did get another year of service time out of it.
Maybe Moustakas, too, but that’s one case, he waited until later in the season, etc.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Let me clarify my position
1. I think he’s generally willing to game service time to get an extra year out of a player. That’s pretty easy in that you only have to have him down in the minors for a couple weeks to pull that off.
2. I think he cares about super two, but that he’s not overly concerned with it. I don’t think that’s the driving force behind the timing of a player’s promotion.
3. I’m not sure how much the demotions (or failure to promote to the majors on opening day) of Butler, Gordon and Hochevar were about gaming service time clocks. I’m not saying they weren’t at all about that, but I don’t think it’s clear either way.
4. (and most importantly) I think there’s a big difference for Moore between the prospects coming up 2007-08 and the ones coming up 2011 and going forward. Now that the Royals are getting closer, I think Moore is promoting prospects as they are ready and when their is room for them in the lineup/rotation/bullpen. I think he believes the time is now (or at least soon) and so he needs to get guys to the majors, give them an opportunity to adjust, and get the team ready to compete ASAP.
With regard to the above suggestion (not from you Matt) that
No way they start his service time clock this year.
No matter how hard he rakes in AA or AAA. They know the pitching doesn’t get here until at least 2013.
I think that is flatly untrue. Moore had the opportunity to allow Hosmer, Moustakas, Gia and Perez stay in the minors and rake all year because the team wasn’t close yet and he passed on it. When he thought those players were ready, he promoted them. Now, he might have waited a little to get an extra year of service time or to give them an opportunity to avoid super two status, but he certainly wasn’t willing to wait a whole year. I don’t know why service time issues would cause him to suddenly start waiting when a player is ready in 2012. I do, however, think he’d wait because the player is blocked.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
I think Gordon's promotion was one day from the service time cut-off, IIRC
to give us another year. Of course, it’s only due to his failure to perform that he was sent down in the first place. Otherwise, we’d have had exactly 6 years and 0 days of control.
by 9il on Feb 1, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
hosmer wasnt going to be close to making even the old super 2 date....
he kept him down long enough to ensure that he got the extra year
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
the Super 2 cutoff for 2011 (under the old CBA) was 2 years, 146 days
According to Cot’s Hosmer earned 146 days of MLB service time in 2011.
interesting...my bad....
i thought the cutoff was always around early june
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
don't worry about it
just another transparent and totally-easy-to-track player transaction rule from MLB.
Now let’s talk options, and the difference between being cut and DFAed! No, wait, that’s’ fun and all, but I think I’d rather spend that time on my taxes.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
This stuff is why Jin Wong gets the big bucks. I don’t think he really knows much about advanced stats, but he has to stay on top of these personnel issues, all the rules, how they apply to every player in the organization and make it all work. And if he screws something up, it’s his ass. And of course he has much more on his plate as well. That’s a tough job.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Most of the crazily confusing transaction rules pretty much come directly out of the CBA bargaining
which kind of explains why they are so obtuse. The Super Two rule, for example, has a long and torturous history dating back to (I think) the 1980s. During one round of negotiations on a CBA, the teams were able to get the first year of arbitration eligibility pushed back to 3 years. In the negotiations on the next CBA, however, the players got the owners to compromise on arbitration eligibility by creating the Super Two rule in exchange for the player’s concessions on something else. I would guess the original 17% number was roughly the half way point between the owners wanting only top 10% of players with 2+ years of service time to qualify for Super Two and the players wanting the top 25% of those players to qualify.
Of course, the goal of the negotiators for the CBA is to get the best possible financial deal for their side, not to make the rules easy to follow for the teams, agents, and fans. You end up with messes like this where the persons making the agreement have much different motivations than those who will actually work with the systems set up by the agreement.
My take
We’ve seen guys raking in AAA before without a timely promotion, and I think Wil will fit into this category. In this case, I think he will be a september call-up, and then we’ll see where we are next season. The only way I see him being traded in this scenario is if one of our other outfield prospects catches fire so we have a possible stud to replace frenchy after next year. Also, I think it will be far more likely they trade him if he struggles in AAA, but it will have to be before his prospect stock dips too low.
by YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble on Feb 1, 2012 1:14 AM EST reply actions
we havent seen legitimate prospects spend a lot of time in AAA while raking
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
Cain?
The players promoted last year only had Ka’aihue, Getz, and Betemit ahead of them.
by 9il on Feb 1, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
cain wasnt exactly raking....
he struggled mightily out of the gate and by the time he picked it up, it was very unlikely that he’d outperform what melky was doing…and i really dont consider gia or cain to be elite
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 1, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
This conversation has gotten way off base
no pun intended, but if Will Myers tears up AAA, then our lord and savior Francouer will have to go mid-season. I’d hate to see it, I like Frenchy as a player and a real person. But Myers is the future in RF. Because they’re not getting rid of Gordon or Cain, and Myers is not going to be a platoon type player, aka Mitch Maier.
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Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
