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Oh, Hey, Baseball

I feel like this entire off-season has been buildup to something that hasn't happened. A flurry of initial rumors and ideas, and then nothing. And then, oh hey, Yuni.

Greatest Farm System Ever.

Included today: Robinson Yambati, talk about the Indians' system, the Yankees mysterious austerity and the sexual revolution.

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Lesky's "Lingering Questions" from Pine Tar Press

My guesses:

…Eric Hosmer follows up his strong rookie showing with a step (or three) forward

A step forward with his hitting, but not a massive step. His defense remains the same: good tools, but the results suffer due to continued poor positioning from the Royals coaching staff.
…Alex Gordon keeps up with his 2011.

He plays well again, but not at the extraordinary level of 2011.
…Billy Butler’s power continues to develop.

No. I haven’t seen his power “developing.” He is a doubles hitter who will continue to some home runs, but that’s it.
…one of the young pitchers steps forward and becomes a legitimate one or two starter.

If he had written “legitimate number three starter,” I probably would have gone along with it. But one of them pitching at the level of a one or two this year? No.
…the bullpen is as good as it looks like it can be

I think the bullpen is going to be very good again. I don’t have faith in Broxton or Mijares, but even without them, there’s a lot of talent and depth. There are many good arms to replace whoever underperforms.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2012 11:43 AM EST reply actions  

Good points

Couple of thoughts though:

Butler’s still young even though he seems like he’s been around forever. He could easily add some power, but not a significant amount a la Jose Bautista. Adjustments at the plate could result in more power and more production however.

Also, honest question about Gordon: he’s got a tremendous amount of talent. What are the chances he remains near that good? What if this season is more of his true talent level? Obviously, statistically it is unlikely. But what if?

by Yodazilla on Jan 6, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Butler’s still young even though he seems like he’s been around forever. He could easily add some power, but not a significant amount a la Jose Bautista. Adjustments at the plate could result in more power and more production however.

He has a legit shot at developing more power. I’m just guessing against it. I’d be more willing to buy into it if his ISO had been going up every year. Instead, it’s been up and down.

Also, honest question about Gordon: he’s got a tremendous amount of talent. What are the chances he remains near that good? What if this season is more of his true talent level? Obviously, statistically it is unlikely. But what if?

It could certainly happen, just not the most likely outcome. I think the hitting is for real, but we probably can’t expect a .382 wOBA every year. I think his fielding is going to take a hit. Both UZR and Dewan’s plus/minus described his range as a negative, but his arm a huge positive, and that’s what gave him positive fielding numbers overall. While I think his range will probably improve a little (due to better jumps and routes just from more experience playing the position), I think the outs he gets with his arm will be fewer because fewer guys will be running on him. Yes, there is a value in disuading runners from even trying to run, but there’s more value in actually erasing the runner on the bases.

My half-assed gut speculation is something like:

Batting +25 runs
Base running +3.5
Fielding +5
Replacement +23
Positional -7

49.5 RAR
5.2 WAR

That would be damned good, just not quite as spectacular has his 6.9 fWAR 2011.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll take 5.2 WAR

And I agree; somewhere between 5 and 6 WAR is the most likely.

Fun fact: The last time someone put up over 5 WAR was Beltran in 2003 (6.8 WAR), and Beltran is the only other Royal to achieve the feat in the past decade. So even if Gordon declines to 5.2 WAR he’ll still be extremely productive by Royals standards.

by Yodazilla on Jan 6, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

It is optimistic

It is largely devoid of solid analysis and is significantly the product of the Gordon fanboy in me. It’s not unrealistic, but it is also probably unlikely.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

is there no joy in your heart?

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 6, 2012 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Heart, yes. Head, meh.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 7, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

When I think of a conductor, the first image that pops into my head is Max from "The Money Pit"

He’s one of my favorite movie characters of all time:

http://www.anyclip.com/movies/the-money-pit/max-makes-a-move-on-anna/

http://www.anyclip.com/movies/the-money-pit/AyGv472Jthtmb/

I couldn’t find a clip of my favorite line of his in the movie: [after the symphony finishes a rehearsal] “The union forces me to allow you to go to lunch in spite of the way you’ve played. Those of you with consciences will not be able to eat. And those who consciences match your talents, go stuff yourselves I hope you choke!”

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 6, 2012 12:04 PM EST reply actions  

Lousy overall movie

but that is a great bit.

The first conductor that came to mind was the Maestro from Seinfeld.

by Gopherballs on Jan 6, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I think I have finally found a litmus test

for determining whose comments I can ignore without reading

by Gopherballs on Jan 7, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

This is what I think of when I think of conductor

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 6, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

makes me nostalgic for my child's yute

ever see Theodore the Tugboat? Fucking refreshing. Pacing slower than a Jim Jarmusch movie, clear and concise moral tales. Canadian in origin I think. PBS rocked it for a few years back in the day. It bends Dora and other Nick-esque kids fare over the table and violates them in interesting ways.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 7, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

As a french horn player

who has played for a fair amount of conductors in my life, I found the conductor’s piece fascinating. When I was in the Missouri All-State band a few years back, the conductor (an internationally known conductor from the D.C. area) told us all that his main purpose when he conducted was to inspire the musicians.

Any other musicians here?

by Yodazilla on Jan 6, 2012 12:29 PM EST reply actions  

I played in orchestras (violin and viola) for 10 years

With the highlights being small and large ensemble awards. The closest I got to a compliment on my playing individually was that a guest conductor told me he liked the way I sat in my chair.

by thelaundry on Jan 6, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I never got better once

BFIB<BFSE........KC needs more Edwin Carl

by tiquanunderwear on Jan 6, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

It was extremely difficult

BFIB<BFSE........KC needs more Edwin Carl

by tiquanunderwear on Jan 7, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Any instrument you have to cram your fist into

To correct the pitch is a broken instrrument.

We should trade for Vance Worley.

by JKWard on Jan 8, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no cramming

The ‘cramming’ is a technique called hand-muting. Which is difficult like everything else.

Don’t you like how it sounds? Like in Star Wars when Luke looks into the two suns?

by Yodazilla on Jan 8, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I have a music ed degree.

Majored in trupet and vocal at Central Methodist back in the 90’s.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 6, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm also biased because I've been lucky enough to play for different conductors all over the country and

even in Paris over the years. I’m still biased toward my Dad who happened to be a high school band director for 43 years.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 6, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

that's really cool...

that you’re musical, got to play all over, and think that of your father.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Jan 8, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting to revisit the '06 draft

Lots of really good first round talent. And the Rox got none of it. Hochevar isn’t terrible, but he probably isn’t in the top ten most valuable players from the draft. Funny we didn’t even consider Longoria because we had Gordon and Teahen at 3B – then draft one the very next year with the #2 overall pick.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 6, 2012 1:02 PM EST reply actions  

Keep in mind the Royals front office was in disarray

Baird had just been fired, Moore hadn’t started, and the draft was in the hands of, I think, Deric Ladnier, who got shown the door by Moore fairly early in Moore’s tenure.

Doesn’t change the fact that a lot of other teams did better than us, but they were probably not in that level of transition.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 6, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

One could argue that the Royals' FO was in some degree of disarray

From the moment Schuerholz left until Dayton came in. In fact, just last night on the 610 Hot Stove show Dayton referred again to mistakes he made earlier in his tenure. So it could even be said, taking Dayton at his word, that the Royals have only had established, stable and cohesive front office leadership for only the most recent 2 or 3 of the last 20 plus years.

The disarray does not excuse the bad decisions the Royals made, but it does help to explain them in retrospect. But if Dayton feels confident and seasoned in his position now, is surrounded by trusted scouts and advisors, and has the resources he needs (at least to the extent ownership can provide it, a point of contention on this site and elsewhere) and can’t deliver on the promise of the Process, what will be the explanation then?

by thelaundry on Jan 6, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

DM admitted in an interview

That the Royals asked his advice and he recommended Hochevar over Andrew Miller because concerns with Miller’s injuries.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 6, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

"ERA estimators can figure future performance quite well — and SIERA, in particular"

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/

Somewhat long and pretty far down the rabbit hole, but a very interesting look into predictions (Marcels, etc.) and estimators (xFIP, SIERA, ERA, etc.) and their ability to predict future ERA.

[Based only on 2010/20111] SIERA actually tops the three most commonly cited projection systems in correlation with future ERA. In fact, you would have done a better job just looking at park-neutral SIERAs in 2010 than all four projection systems’ park-adjusted ERAs.
….
The lesson learned from the [2006-2011 table] is that, over time, projections do a better job being closer to future ERA than ERA estimators — other than SIERA.

My thought is that SIERA should be the best metric, but we don’t tend to pay enough attention to it – maybe b/c it’s new and relatively untested.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 6, 2012 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

I agree. I think SIERA is best. We know both fWAR and bWAR have problems. SIERA, in my mind, does the best at evaluating performance.

by WURoyal on Jan 6, 2012 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think SIERA will start to catch on more

I plan on using it more in my evaluations of pitchers

by Connor Moylan on Jan 6, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I nearly bought a GMC Sierra once

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 6, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't mind drinking Sierra Nevadas

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 7, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Sierra Nevada is a bit hoppy for my taste

I’m slightly a beer snob ‘cause I live in Europe and get good beer normally. I see no reason to drink Bud or Coors. High Life in bottles is all right if they’re selling them cheap. PBR in cans is not worth paying for in a bar unless they’re $1.

My favorite American beers are Blue Moon and Shiner Bock. Lots of good lagers and ales. Yuengling’s a good buy. Sam Adams is pretty good. So is Fat Tire. Boulevard beers are always good. I don’t much like Abita. My favorite brewpub is the Free State.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Jan 8, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

So you don't get Budweiser in the pubs?

Shocking. Do they even have pubs in Spain like they do in England?

by Yodazilla on Jan 8, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I spent time in Germany

and their Pilsners tend to run a little hoppy. I like a good IPA every now and again.

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 8, 2012 10:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I really enjoyed

Franziskaner Heffe-Weisse while over there.

Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell

by Dr. van Strijcker on Jan 9, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I love Paulaner Hef

Schneider & Sohn do the hell out of their beer, too. Aventinus, their weizenbock, is maybe my favorite beer.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Jan 9, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

All wheat beers kick ass

Franziskaner is widely available in Spain in moderate quantities. So’s Paulaner. The Belgian guy who runs the bar on the corner has Stella Artois, Hoegaarden, Leffe Double, and Chimay on tap. You can spend too much money in there quite easily.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Jan 9, 2012 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

They don't exactly have pubs but they have neighborhood bars

where the folks come down for a beer, an espresso, or this foul locally manufactured thing called Gin Giró that is supposed to be mixed with Coke, for best results.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Jan 9, 2012 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I do not like wheat beers at all...

But I had a Lowenbrau Weizenbock whilst there last time, and it was AMAZING, incredible beer.

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 9, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh... So the Padres just gave the Cubs Rizzo...

They are definitely winning the Adrian Gonzalez trade now.

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 6, 2012 8:49 PM EST reply actions  

I think Josh Byrnes

Is having a romantic relationship with Theo Epstein

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 7, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Is the Hutch Award

for fat guys who never hit home runs.

by Dadunca on Jan 6, 2012 11:56 PM EST reply actions  

This offseason kind of sucks

It started off with a bang (trading for Sanchez and signing Broxton), but then the true Dayton showed up and signed Yuni. I would like to see an ace brought in. There’s no true ace on this pitching staff. Our lineup is almost ready to compete. You must account for some Sophomore slumps going on, but 2013 is a real possibility for competing. I’d love to see a trade that brought in a stud pitcher that is under team control for 2-3 years, at least. We have the talent in the minors to make that happen, but I don’t know if I trust Dayton to do it. We need a true pitching stud, not his version of one. Let’s hope he’s competent to pull one of these available guys out without completely depleting our system.

If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down
-Gin Blossoms

by royaldaddy on Jan 7, 2012 12:46 AM EST reply actions  

How's little MITCH doing?

How’s his life after the summer camp?

I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Jan 7, 2012 9:16 AM EST reply actions  

does anyone think a trade for a legitimate ace is possible using

only players from the 40 man roster? just as a fun exercise.

What package would you put together using only the current 40 man roster players to snag a Shields or King Felix type ace?

I would trade Soria, CRob, Jeffress, and Arguelles, for Shields, and TB call within then next 30 minutes i’d throw in Chris Getz as a free gift.

For King Felix, i’d give up Soria, Crow, Dyson, and Paulino. maybe throw in Getz if i was in a good mood.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 7, 2012 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

I can't see either team making either of those deals

King Felix would require Hosmer and probably more.

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Jan 7, 2012 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

i'd be willing to throw in more for King Felix, but NOT Hos, Perez, Gordon, or Moose.

i’d consider Butler, but would not give up too much more than BB in the trade, and i’d consider Duffy, but again would not give up much more in the package.

i trade Duffy, Mendoza (or Teaford), and one or two lower level minor leaguers for Felix

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 7, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

And Felix is not cheap either

His contract looks pretty good against the market, but it’s still 3 years $58 million. If you’re willing to spend that much on one SP, why not sign a FA and keep the prospects?

by thelaundry on Jan 7, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

good point

why not go after E Jackson for something like 3yrs/$36 million and keep the young talent. Jackson isn’t as good as King Felix, but he would potentially be cheaper and as you mentioned we keep our current young talent. now its just a matter of whether Edwin would accept a 3 year deal or not.

by DickHowser4ever on Jan 7, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

At this point I'd rather hold on to the prospects and the money

According to the Royals, Hochevar, Sanchez and Chen are in the rotation. A major FA or trade acquisition would also be a lock. So who gets left out, Paulino or Duffy? Depth is good, but I think the Royals would be wise to give those two a full season of starts to see if they can be consistently effective.

by thelaundry on Jan 7, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

If we could get Jackson

at 3/$36 million I would jump on it. I don’t think that’s realistic.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Jan 8, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

The Mariners would require AT LEAST two of those four players that you consider untouchable.

Probably two of those guys plus a couple minor league guys. Felix is one of the very top arms in the game and is only entering his age 26 season. Seattle ain’t parting with him for Eric Hosmer and some A ball arms.

I won’t even dignify including Mendoza in that package with a response. Mendoza is a complete non-prospect.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jan 7, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

Felix requires Hosmer and Moose, or one of them plus Wil Myers and probably Monty or Duffy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 7, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

And, Once We

Sell the farm for him, Tommy John and labrum surgery.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 8, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

They wouldn't take that

I don’t think Felix is enough to push the team over the edge.

"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943

by Juancho on Jan 9, 2012 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

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