FanPost

How bad should we expect Frenchy to be? With TABLES!!!!

Jeff Francouer plays baseball. In 2012, he played poorly, ending the season with a total fWAR of -1.2. With another $7 million guaranteed to him in 2013, the Royals should be worried about whether they will get any kind of return from him in 2013.

Being the considerate fan that I am, I decided to run some numbers and see if the data might shed some light on the woe that is Frenchy. Over the past 20 years, there have been 21 players between the ages of 25-30 (Frenchy is 28) who put up less than -1 WAR in a season in which they met the minimum PAs to qualify for the batting title. The list looks like this:

YEAR

PLAYER

TEAM

GAMES

WAR

2002

Neifi Perez

Royals

145

-2.9

1993

Luis Polonia

Angels

151

-2.3

1993

Ruben Sierra

Athletics

158

-2.2

2009

Yuniesky Betancourt

Multiple

134

-2.1

1997

Chris Gomez

Padres

148

-2.1

1996

Carlos Baerga

Multiple

126

-1.7

1996

Delino DeShields

Dodgers

153

-1.7

1997

Rico Brogna

Phillies

145

-1.6

1993

Felix Fermin

Indians

139

-1.5

1995

Kevin Stocker

Phillies

123

-1.4

1992

Jose Lind

Pirates

134

-1.3

2012

Brennan Boesch

Tigers

132

-1.3

1999

Brian Hunter

Multiple

134

-1.3

1998

Rey Ordonez

Mets

151

-1.3

1998

Neifi Perez

Rockies

161

-1.3

2012

Jeff Francoeur

Royals

148

-1.2

1996

Troy O'Leary

Red Sox

147

-1.1

2010

Melky Cabrera

Braves

147

-1.1

1994

Jose Vizcaino

Mets

103

-1.1

1996

Ruben Sierra

Multiple

142

-1

2006

Angel Berroa

Royals

132

-1

Not a terrible list of players, but certainly a list of terrible years. That team would lose 160 games. But more than a few of them had nice rebound years in the year after:

Y

PLAYER

Y-1 WAR

Y WAR

Y+1 WAR

1996

Delino DeShields

3

-1.7

4.2

2010

Melky Cabrera

1.6

-1.1

4.2

1998

Rey Ordonez

0.8

-1.3

3.3

1997

Chris Gomez

0.1

-2.1

1.8

1996

Troy O'Leary

2.2

-1.1

1.8

1995

Kevin Stocker

0.2

-1.4

1.4

1996

Carlos Baerga

2.4

-1.7

1.2

2002

Neifi Perez

1.5

-2.9

1.1

2009

Yuniesky Betancourt

0.4

-2.1

0.9

1997

Rico Brogna

0.2

-1.6

0.9

1993

Luis Polonia

0.6

-2.3

0.8

1994

Jose Vizcaino

1.8

-1.1

0.7

1999

Brian Hunter

1.7

-1.3

0.4

1993

Felix Fermin

0.6

-1.5

0.2

1996

Ruben Sierra

-0.8

-1

0

2006

Angel Berroa

0.4

-1

-0.1

1993

Ruben Sierra

3.6

-2.2

-0.3

1992

Jose Lind

1.3

-1.3

-0.6

1998

Neifi Perez

0.6

-1.3

-0.9

2012

Brennan Boesch

1.7

-1.3

2012

Jeff Francoeur

2.9

-1.2

Average:

1.168421

1.105263

So, the good news is that only 4 of the previous 19 players put up another negative WAR season, while 8 of the 19 put up a season of 1 WAR or better. Overall, the average WAR for these players was 1.11.

The bad news is that the average WAR for these players in the year before their terrible year was 1.16, so their terrible year may have signaled an ever-so-slight decline. Moreover, it doesn't seem that Frenchy's previous good year in 2011 has any bearing on how well he will do in 2013, since there is no obvious correlation between a good Y-1 WAR and a good Y+1 year.

Overall, I think this data should be slightly comforting for fans resigned to the fact that Frenchy will be the Royals' starting RF next year, as it shows that past terrible seasons have always been improved upon in the next year (or perhaps that the player has been benched before such terribleness can be repeated), with the average output being that of a solid role player.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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