GM's have plenty of cash to spend this winter and players with question marks surrounding them will be paid handsomely anyway. Buyer Beware!
Josh Hamilton - His days are numbered as a CF. He profiles better in LF and can be an average every day defender there. Slotting him in as a DH a couple days a week should be in the cards as well if you decide to pull he trigger on the biggest high risk/high reward player on the market. The GM's willing to give him more than 3 years is absurd.
Kyle Lohse - The Cardinals seem to always make the right moves. They know better not to resign Lohse, as he's most likely coming off a career year. He's more likely to regress than to maintain the numbers he complied in 2012. He'll be vastly overpaid, but he should eat innings wherever he winds up.
Adam LaRoche - Signing him to a 1 year deal to see if he can repeat his numbers from last year would be logical. He should provide 25 + home runs, but I'm calling out 2012 as his career year. If he's peaking late, I'll have to admit I was wrong.
Rafael Soriano - It looks like a multi-year contract is out there for him as he's the best reliever available. If Jeremy Affeldt can ink a 3 year deal, I can only imagine how this will pan out. Some teams are still willing to shell out big bucks for someone experienced in the closer's role. Is roughly 60 innings a year worth the investment?
Ryan Ludwick - Coming off his most productive season since 2008 should land him a 3 year deal. While I like what he can bring to a clubhouse, there is enough red flags in the statistical metrics that it would make him a skeptical sign.
Fransisco Liriano - If he can find a multi-year deal, he'll come with great risk. My gut feeling is that he'll find a 2 year deal based on the fact he's left handed and offers some upside in some scouts eyes. Shying away from him would be advisable, but if he can post numbers anywhere near his 2010 campaign I'll be eating my words.
A.J. Pierzynski - No way he gets anywhere near 27 home runs again in his career. His HR/FB rate proves it was a bit fluky. (His career HR/FB % is 9.3, while last year it was 18.6. While it's unlikely he'll ever reach 20 home runs again, he's still a solid enough player. He will give you above average production at the position offensively, and can provide adequate defense. (Good catch and throw guy, not as great at blocking pitches.) Due to his age I'd be surprised if he received any offers for more than 2 years, but maybe there is a crazy GM out there?
Kevin Youkillis - When "Youk" came to mind initially I wasn't sure if he belonged on this list. I was thinking maybe he becomes a buy low option if he's somehow still available late into the winter? Just don't have a feel for what teams/scouts think of him currently. There is several clubs with a gaping hole at third base, so I expect him to get a 2-3 year contract due to necessity. His bat has declined each of the last two years. And his range at third base could become an issue. He will have to mix in a lot of his at bats at DH for the most productivity.
Jonathan Broxton - He revitalized his career in Kansas City last year. And was effective for the most part when being dealt to the Reds in July. He's a solid reliever, but not the dominant hurler he was earlier in his career with the Dodgers. His slider is his signature pitch as he doesn't light up the radar gun with his fastball any more. A contending club will overpay immensely for his services. 3 years $25-30 million might be in his wheel house. For a reliever that doesn't miss a ton of bats any more? I'm sick to my stomach just thinking about it.
Joe Saunders - He attacks the zone. (only 2 BB/9) and his K rate spiked up to a more respectable level. From 4.58 in 2011 to 5.77 K/9 in 2012. If he could repeat his numbers he'd be worth a 2 year deal at a modest price. I'd say it's more likely he's back to being a 1 to 1.5 WAR pitcher in 2013 that he's been most of his career. A one year deal makes him an "okay" sign as he'll likely be good for 170-200 not so quality innings.
Mike Napoli - Assuming he gets the 4 year deal that he's demanding, it obviously brings plenty of risk. You have to consider that that he'll bring the most value getting his bat in the lineup as often as possible. For the money the M's or Red Sox may fork out, you need him to play in 125 + games a season. Cutting his catcher duties to 30-40 games would be the way to go in keeping him fresh and keeping his WAR total at around 3 each year. I actually like the sign just fine for a shorter term contract.
Delmon Young - He may not break the bank, but wouldn't be surprised to see him get at a two year deal. He had a good postseason and while I take in the RBI statistic with a grain of salt, some GM may view him as someone that can be more than adequate driving in runs. He doesn't walk and he's a wreck in the outfield. 2 years $10 million sounds about right. Just the thought of it gives me the "heebie jeebies".