As we all know, Democrats or Republicans, conservatives or liberals, the elections are upon us. We also know that Royals Review is not the place for political arguments. And we know that Royals Review commenters are generally statistically-minded and pretty bright. So what's your prognostication for the election? We don't want to know who you think should win or why; we want to know who you predict will win and why. There are several websites going around making guesses: Nate Silver at the New York Times thinks Obama will win, 307-231, and he's got gazillions of stats that he says back him up. Michael Barone thinks that there will be a Romney surge and that he'll take even Pennsylvania. I've been looking at the Real Clear Politics averages, and as I think the surveys slightly undercount conservatives, that Dem turnout will be comparatively weak, and that Rep turnout will be surprisingly strong. I have Romney taking most of the tossup states and winning 295-243. Your guesses?
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