No Long-Term Contract Yet for Alex Gordon: Do You Want One?

On the other hand, the Royals hold some flexibility at the moment, which is apparently what they value more

I don’t think we should assume that the reason there hasn’t been a long-term contract agreement is because the Royals prefer flexibility over a long-term commitment to Gordon. It takes two parties to agree to a contract. Right now the Royals and Gordon have not agreed to terms for a long-term contract extension. By all accounts, there have been negotiations. I think both sides are interested in a long-term deal, but they just don’t agree on the dollars and years such a contract should have.

The people who say we need to wait and see if he is “for real” are going to be the same people who, if Gordon proves to be “for real” and becomes too expensive to sign, are going to bitch about how we can’t keep our star players and how cheap this organization is.

Gotta sign him. Yeah, there is risk, but you can’t be so afraid of risk that you simply do nothing.

I’m not worried about the very poor

I have stocked up on bottled water and duct tape and I recommend you do the same.

1. He has the build of a stud athlete.

2. In my eyes, I thought he was a fantastic 3B which would add tons of value to a team to have an overachieving 3B, and one that had speed to boot.

3. I thought his batting stance and approach was holding him back.

4. Hometown kid.

Then somewhere along the 3B to LF transition, I was like, “Man, eff this guy.” Because:

1. He got a big bonus and never produced.

2. Wanted to transition to the outfield for reasons unknown. (Although in a current interview on the Hot Stove with Denny & Ryan I realize he wanted to move to the outfield because “that’s where the real athletes are.” Which makes me like him, but also dislike that he is essentially succumbing to a position bias where he must think that good athletes don’t play 3B.)

3. His general ballpark presence was one of a scalded dog.

But then 2011 came, and the stance changed and the stats came rolling in. I really thought Gordon was a lost cause, but him blossoming in the outfield was phenomenal. He was really busting his ass every single day out there.

I think the 1 year deal pretty much means that Alex will play for the Royals for half a year and get traded or finish a playoff/.500 run and never come back. Because either the Royals don’t think he is a stud and want to try to get him on the cheap or because the Gordon camp is asking for an extraordinary amount of money. The best case scenario would be that Gordon slumps for a month, picks it back up a little bit, and then signs a 4 for $30 deal.

I have a really, really bad feeling that Gordon will go absolutely nuts this year and it will be his last. I think we will see an MVP season and then he will go the Yanks or Phils for Jayson Werth money.

After just one solid year most assume he will continue his quest for domination especially after how so few believed in him prior to 2011. Im in the PLEASE dont sign him to long term contract just yet camp. Mostly cause I want Gordon to prove to me it was for real, and second, I think long term money would be more wisely spent on the younger (and higher upside potential) Eric Hosmer, and Possibly Moose, Perez, Gia, Alcides etc

Would we be paying him based on 2011? Or on 2007 – 2010?

The Royals are in no position to not offer him a long term deal before this season unless Gordon and co. are stuck on something ludicrous like 6 years/$80 million. There are multiple reasons why the Royals just can’t afford to not resign him:

1) He’s as local a star as we’re going to get that is willing to resign for less money.

2) His 2011 season was one of the best seasons of any Royals position player this decade. That’s a heck of an outlier. This, combined with his fantastic pedigree as a high draft pick who destroyed college and minor ball, makes him much more likely to repeat or come close to that season.

3) If Gordon repeats 2011 or close to it again, we’re looking at a much bigger payday. Gordon might decide to let a bidding war for his services commence at the end of the year after that.

4) The Royals must take chances. All small market teams take chances on players before they’ve completely ‘proved’ themselves. If you wait until a player ‘proves’ themselves, you’re looking at way more money. The Royals will need some of that money later and hopefully resign one of their stars in future year and starting pitching in 2013. They can’t afford to let Gordon leave if he’s playing at a high level. It’s worth the risk. If you’re Dayton Moore, and you don’t make moves like this, you’ll never win.

If he turns out to be a great player, then we obviously want him long term.

But what if he’s only average or he’s good but constantly injured – If he’s not a great player, do we have enough talent to be a contender? If we pay him $12MM/year, how much money do we have for free agents to get us into contention?

I also don’t see OF as a strong need. I’m pretty bullish on Cain and Myers, and if they emerge as every-day players, we’d have 2/3 of our outfield cost-controlled until 2018. We probably could fill in this spot with plenty of other less-expensive options than Gordon.

Assumptions for the sake of calculation:

2.5 WAR player for each of the next four years
1 WAR = $5.25M for 2012
MLB annual salary inflation rate of 5%
Manual estimates of arbitration awards
15% discount for long-term security.

2012: $4.8M
2013: $8M
2014: $12.5M
2015: $13M
TOTAL: $38.3M

I think that’s a low-ball, estimating him as a merely above average player or a high injury risk. Personally, I see him as more of a 3 WAR player going forward. In that case, the numbers would be:

2012: $4.8M
2013: $8M
2014: $14.7M
2015: $15.5M
TOTAL: $43M

IIRC, I’ve long held that 4/40 would be a fair offer for both sides. I still think that’s the case. But Gordon may prefer a little more risk for potentially a greater reward in free agency. And perhaps the Royals see more risk in locking down Gordon for 4/40 than I do. Hard to say, as we haven’t been privy to the negotiations.