I've already done a team win projection for the 2012 Royals based on the individual player projections from the CAIRO and ZiPS systems. I have now done it with the recently released PECOTA projections. You can look at the ZiPS version for details on my methodology. I also put together the projections from the three systems for a mega-projection. All results after the jump.
Team projection based on PECOTA
Runs Scored (plus defensive runs saved) - 698.8
Runs allowed (based on ERA) - 782.6
Runs allowed (based on FIP) - 735.4
Win Total (based on ERA) - 72.4
Win Total (based on FIP) - 77.1
Much like CAIRO, PECOTA doesn't love the Royals offense. And it likes the Royals pitching even less.
I used a weighted average of the three system's projections (CAIRO = 1, ZiPS = 2, PECOTA = 2) to come up with a combined projection. (The CAIRO projections are re-worked for some more recent roster additions (Mijares and Yuni) and to utilize the same methodology for each system).
ZiPS sees some almost-.500 potential. CAIRO and PECOTA really don't. I think the overall picture here is of a team that isn't particularly close to contention. But if they make some strides this year, I think they could overperform their projections and get considerably closer, and maybe ready to take the next step in 2013.