FanPost

PECOTA, the 2012 Royals and a Mega-Projection

I've already done a team win projection for the 2012 Royals based on the individual player projections from the CAIRO and ZiPS systems. I have now done it with the recently released PECOTA projections. You can look at the ZiPS version for details on my methodology. I also put together the projections from the three systems for a mega-projection. All results after the jump.

Team projection based on PECOTA

Runs Scored (plus defensive runs saved) - 698.8

Runs allowed (based on ERA) - 782.6

Runs allowed (based on FIP) - 735.4


Win Total (based on ERA) - 72.4

Win Total (based on FIP) - 77.1

Much like CAIRO, PECOTA doesn't love the Royals offense. And it likes the Royals pitching even less.

Mega-Projection


I used a weighted average of the three system's projections (CAIRO = 1, ZiPS = 2, PECOTA = 2) to come up with a combined projection. (The CAIRO projections are re-worked for some more recent roster additions (Mijares and Yuni) and to utilize the same methodology for each system).

Mega-projection2_medium

ZiPS sees some almost-.500 potential. CAIRO and PECOTA really don't. I think the overall picture here is of a team that isn't particularly close to contention. But if they make some strides this year, I think they could overperform their projections and get considerably closer, and maybe ready to take the next step in 2013.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Join Royals Review

You must be a member of Royals Review to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Royals Review. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker