Jonathan Sanchez and the blogosphere that can never be pleased
by seelztlb on Feb 14, 2012 8:25 AM EST
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Jonathan Sanchez sucks. He was a terrible acquisition because, despite his high strikeout totals (9.4 K/9 career), he just walks too many people (4.8 BB/9 career).
Jeff Francis sucks, too. You see, despite his low walk totals (1.9 BB/9 career), he doesn't strike out enough people (5.9 K/9 career).
Which is it, folks? Bloggers pissed and moaned all season long that Jeff Francis didn't strike out enough people. Striking people out is more important than limiting walks.
So the Royals go out and bring in a pitcher that strikes out more than a batter per inning while being basically a league-average pitcher to replace Francis, and now we've decided that limiting walks is more important than strikeouts.
Francis was not good for the Royals in 2011, and I hate walks just as much as the next guy, but pretty much universally with high strikeout numbers come higher walk rates. Pitchers don't frequently throw up 3 or 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratios. When they do we call them Cy Youngs, MVPs, things such as this. i.e. not something you could acquire (with another player) in exchange for Melky Cabrera.
Consider this pitcher.
In an extensive career, this pitcher compiled 9.5 strikeouts per 9 and 4.7 walks per nine (compared to 9.4 and 4.8 for Sanchez).
Who is this pitcher?
Some guy named Nolan Ryan.
Is Jonathan Sanchez going to throw seven no-hitters and be a first-ballot Hall of Famer? No, of course not.
The point is, you can't have your cake and eat it too.
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not sure about this
Striking people out is more important than limiting walks.
interesting point. i’m not sure how it works out.
not saying I 100% disagree, saying I don’t know
I’m not arguing that striking people out is more important than walks, I’m saying that argument was made last year re: Jeff Francis, but has been flipped on its head now to complain about Jonathan Sanchez. My point is that bloggers just need something to bitch about :) (irony noted)
I dunno
Seemed like most bloggers liked the Francis signing.
by billexgordler on Feb 14, 2012 9:10 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah,
I don’t know who you are citing as not having liked Jeff Francis. He was generally well thought of here.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 15, 2012 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
I liked Francis all along
I think we should have re-signed him (versus re-signing Chen and maybe even versus trading Melky for Sanchez).
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 14, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think ideally, you want a guy that strikes out people AND doesn't walk people.
I don’t see why those two skills have to be mutually exclusive. Sure, its hard to find, but good pitchers are also hard to find.
In any case, I’ll take the guy that can strike guys out – Sanchez. I don’t think Sanchez sucks at all, so long as he’s healthy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Maybe not genuinely mutually exclusive
But the harder you throw, the harder it is to control the ball’s location precisely, but the easier it is to miss bats. Pitchers with both great power and great control are not unheard of, but they are rare.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Uncommon I'd say.
But take a look at Zack Greinke: Over the past three years, he has compiled a K/9 of 9 and a BB/9 of 2.2. That’s good for a K/BB of 4.13.
It happens. People with 3 or more K/BB ratios are uncommon, yes, but they aren’t a dieing breed. The Royals just haven’t experienced many.
Sure
Its hard to find, but not mutually exclusive.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 14, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I would submit, without doing the legwork to look it up, that there aren’t more than five pitchers in the modern era who have, say, 800 IP (arbitrary number) with more than a 3 (or even 2.5) to 1 K:BB ratio that haven’t won a Cy Young and/or are in the Hall of Fame. The point isn’t that they don’t exist, it’s that they’re the best of the best and you can’t say a guy sucks because he isn’t going to win a Cy Young.
here's the last 10 years. I'm not sure it agrees exactly with your guess.
Last 10 seasons, pitchers with 800+ IP and a K/BB > 3:
Curt Schilling
Roy Halladay
Randy Johnson
Dan Haren
Brad Radke
Pedro Martinez
Johan Santana
Ben Sheets
Mike Mussina
Ricky Nolasco
Cole Hamels
James Shields
Greg Maddux
David Wells
Javier Vazquez
Zack Greinke
Chris Carpenter
Scott Baker
Roy Oswalt
Cliff Lee
Jered Weaver
Josh Beckett
Jake Peavy
Yes, they’re all very good pitchers, many Cy Young caliber starters. But it’s not like approaching 3 K/BB is some crazy thing that only Greinke and Halladay can do. Lower it to 2.5, and you add another 15 or so pitchers, many very good ones (Pettitte) and also some less remarkable ones (Carlos Silva).
I’m not sure if this has anything to do with whether or not we should approve of swapping (essentially) Francis for Sanchez while losing out on Melky.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 14, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough, that’s more than I expected, but every single one of those pitchers is more than we could have got for Melky Cabrera. My original point wasn’t even so much a defense of Sanchez as it was a criticism of the moving target that the serial critics have. Remember, many of the critics are the same that don’t want to spend big money in the free agent market and don’t want to give up prospects. There were maybe a handful of pitchers even hypothetically available this offseason that would be of the caliber of those listed above, and they all would have cost either a boatload of prospects or $100m contract. It doesn’t take much to say “we should get a pitcher that strikes people out AND doesn’t walk people” but it’s just not realistic.
Of course its realistic
Its just difficult. WINNING BASEBALL is difficult. It should be!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 14, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Pitchers don’t frequently throw up 3 or 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratios. When they do we call them Cy Youngs, MVPs, things such as this. i.e. not something you could acquire (with another player) in exchange for Melky Cabrera.
Sure
Not sure why those have to be the benchmarks for “non-suckitude”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Sanchez's career K/BB is a little below 2.0
Not surprisingly, the projection systems project him as a slightly below league average starter. That is far from sucking, but not exactly fantastic either.
I read almost everything that's posted on this site,
and unless I missed something I haven’t seen hardly anyone bitching about Sanchez in quite sometime. Most of the ire is directed toward the Chen signing, and justifiably so. The second year of that deal just stinks and was completely unwarranted especially in light of the Francis one year minor league deal a month later. I’m actually bullish on Sanchez and think that between him, Paulino, Duffy and Hoch that we might have some decent potential. That being said, I’m not so pleased with him for 1 year, and C’mon Chen for 2.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 14, 2012 9:37 AM EST reply actions
Yeah, most of the Sanchez talk around here hasn't been negative.
and yes, I think it would be better to have Sanchez for 2 and Chen for 1. I would rather have had Oswalt for the extra $3 to $5 million than Chen.
As for a small amount of BB’s vs large numbers of K’s, I think it would partly depend on your park and your defense. Small park and/or lousy defense? Give me K’s. But in a large park with a good defense I’ll take the low-walk, guy. For a playoff game, I’d rather have the K dude.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Feb 14, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Here’s the general refrain around Sanchez stories “It’s fine, but he still walks too many people.” I was engaging in a bit of hyperbole (is that allowed on this Internets? Was that outlawed by SOPA or something?) It’s not that people think it was a bad trade per se, it’s that they just can’t seem to be satisfied. Billy Butler is really great but if he’d just hit 25 homeruns and drop a few jean sizes. All I’m saying is if you expect every pitcher to be Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander, you’re going to live a life of disappointment. Jonathan Sanchez, even at his worst (healthy) numbers, is a sizable improvement to the Royals rotation and should be viewed with excoitment and optimism. At his best, he’s the best pitcher on our staff.
According to the various projection systems...
They actually have Johnathan Sanchez being our best pitcher most of the time. I think the gripe/concern with Sanchez is the amount of innings he will actually throw because of injury and his pitching style. If he can’t manage to throw many innings his value will be reduced, even if maintains a low ERA or FIP.
Why should we be satisfied with players that have flaws to their game?
Every player should be trying to improve. Jonathan Sanchez needs to cut down his walks. That doesn’t mean he sucks.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I actually liked the Sanchez/Cabrera trade...
and had considerered it myself before it happened; I would have not known one could also recieved Verdugo, so kudos to DM for getting more than just Sanchez for Melky.
Seelzlb, you’re probably right about people saying he walks too many people, though. I’ve said that. He DOES walk a lot of people. I’m fine with Sanchez’s walk-rate in a vaccum, but not when DM says things like part of the reason McClure was let go was his inabiltiy to ‘get guys to throw more strikes’ and cutting down on walks is paramount, and then adds guys like Sanchez, Broxton, and Mijares (three of THE highest BB-rate pitchers in the Majors, last year). I think you’re also right about Sanchez possibly being the best starter on the staff.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Feb 16, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't not being pleased sort of inherent in the blogosphere in general?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Same as music
If a song’s good, it sure as shit ain’t about being happy.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 15, 2012 1:41 AM EST up reply actions
And The Composer
Almost certainly did not have a happy life at the time.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 15, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
You're wrong
Exhibit A: “Walking On Sunshine” by Katrina and the Waves
"You're like that guy who wrote that thing about remembering stuff!!"
- Crow T. Robot
I encourage people to continue making my point for me.
It’s way less work.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 3:31 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
So true, as "Walking on Sunshine" is one of the saddest songs of the 20th Century
The song’s protagonist is an emotionally damaged spurned lover whose denial of her lost love has caused a psychological detachment from reality. The song’s happier than unicorn rainbow chorus is belied by the other verses describing a desperate wretch perpetually waiting for “the knock on my door” or the letter “you write me you’re coming around” that never happen. In the end, her final plea of “I said baby I just want you back and I want you to stay” goes unanswered, except in her own mind where she is forever “walking on sunshine — wooah, yeah” — over and over again. In the end, her loneliness and heartache have driven her to madness.
And really that sentiment underlies much of those songs that superficially seem/sound happy.
As for songs that actually come from a happy place? They can go screw.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
It Was Commonly
Done for a while. Upon hearing this, a horrified Sting penned If You Love Someone, Set Them Free.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 16, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Good ol' Sting
Plus, I hear that he is a good digger.
As I recall, Will was just about the only RRer who was down on the Sanchez trade
What do you say now, Will!?! Defend thyself!
wasn't your main criticism that Melky was traded for a one-year rental in Sanchez
rather than a player with more than one year of club control or prospects?
I was fine with Sanchez given what was given up but you raised a fair point.
not really...
i mean, you cant expect to get alot for the right to pay melky $6 million for a year…i was shocked that he was able to get sanchez and verdugo
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 14, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think that's right
Will’s criticism wasn’t so much that Sanchez sucked, just that it didn’t make sense for a one year player when 2012 was probably a 75-79 win season.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Two too many
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 14, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Wow...
seelztlb has blown the lid clear off of this joint.
Apparently we all hate Sanchez. (No.) All hated Jeff Francis. (No.) Pissed and moaned about low K-rates. (No.)
Is there a theme developing?
seelztlb, could you please provide something resembling relevant examples about all of these baseless and bland accusations you’ve made that cite something said at Royals Review? The burden of proof is on you, pally boy.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
I hope Nolan Ryan is a good example for Sanchez
I’m not using 1966 for Ryan as he only pitched in 2 games. so I’ll break his career in half, 1968-1980 and 1981-1993.
1968-1980: Only 3 season below his career avg. of 4.7BB/9. 1980 was the only season below 4. Four years he was over 6.
1981-1993: 1993 was the only season he was over 4.7 (5.4). Only 3 other season were over 4. All the rest were between 3.3 and 3.9.
So maybe Sanchez will learn some control as he gets older.
And no, I’m not trying to say he’ll end up anything like Ryan.
Randy Johnson also walked quite a few early in his career (5.8, 4.9, 6.8 and 6.2) and improved greatly.
December, 7 1941 may be a day that lives in infamy, but December 6, 2011 is a day that will live in AWESOMENESS!!! The day I became part owner of the Green Bay Packers!
In Cheese We Trust
Ryan threw 99 MPH and demonstrated an ability to significantly limit both hits and home runs
Sanchez throws 90 MPH. His strikeouts and walks are due to pitching up in the zone. If he throws more strikes, he is going to get fewer Ks and give up more hits and home runs. Adjusted for his home park, he has not shown any ability to limit hits or home runs anymore than the average MLB starter.
Yeah,
There may not be a grosser understatement than
Ryan… demonstrated an ability to significantly limit… hits
Nolan Ryan had 1.5 times as many walks as any pitcher in baseball history, yet maintained a career WHIP of 1.24 because he has the lowest career H/9 of any pitcher with over 1000 IP… By .24 H/9. That’s a very wide margin.
Nolan is actually way down the list insofar as HR/9 is concerned (ranks 439th). Not to say that’s awful, and I’d imagine that the bulk of those pitchers ahead of him were dead-ball era, but I’m not good enough with B-R to eliminate everything from before The Great War to find out how he measures up to normal pitchers.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
His Career BABIP
Against is .265.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 16, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
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