How much for McClutch? You like what I did there?
by whataboutbilly? on Feb 15, 2012 9:47 PM EST
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So the Pirates are saying they are "listening" on trades for their center fielder extraordinaire Andrew McCutchen. The man has looked good since he got on the field and is making obvious progression in his game. How much do you think for the last four years of his team control to be able to then throw the reigns to Bubba?
I don't have the gift of figuring a fair trade but what would this do: Clint Robinson, Chris Dwyer, Cheslor Cuthbert, Lorenzo Cain for McCutchen and a A-Ball prospect.
let me know what you think
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My gut says no, but like GMDM I probably overvalue our guys
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
Mitt Romney is a serial killer.
?
You think that’s too much for McCutchen? I think it’s far below what it would and should take.
by hawkinscm87 on Feb 15, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
I think he means,
no to trading prospects for McCutchen. Not that he wouldn’t do that deal. I could be wrong though.
Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell
by Dr. van Strijcker on Feb 16, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I think so too.
I guess I just don’t see how it would take Cuthbert along with those pieces. Not sure though.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 16, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
so, you do or dont think it's too much to give up?
you managed to say both in 3 sentences
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think MFM is concurring with Gatsby
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
I was concurring.
Thanks. Sorry about my ramblings…I was also on the phone ranting to my lawyer about the freaking speeding ticket I got 3 blocks from my house this morning.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 16, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
How could that package possibly get McCutchen?
He’s basically a star, and I would guess that he’s expected to get better for a few more years.
If we're going to trade prospects
It should be for pitchers. I’m not terribly concerned about our offense for 2012-2015
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
this kinda plays into what I was thinking
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
Mitt Romney is a serial killer.
by averagegatsby on Feb 16, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
what if we simply build a dominant line-up
and hope that pitching prospects work out?
by whataboutbilly? on Feb 16, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
if we build a dominant lineup by trading for mccutch
we wont have any prospects to hope work out
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
No.
Simply put, the upgrade from 5 years of LoCain to 4 years of McCutcheon isn’t big enough to warrant much else, and certainly not a guy like Cuthbert.
Just assuming that LoCain is an average CF (he’s probably above average) and that he has not improved at all with the bat(Which his AAA suggest he might have) then he’s probably a 4 win player.
Compare that to McCutcheon, assuming McCutcheon is an average fielder (He might not be) then he’s probably worth 5 wins.
Is one extra win worth giving up a year of team control and one of the best young prospects in the game?
Maybe LoCain, Dwyer and Robinson for McCutcheon.
Of course what I’d REALLY love would be a trade for McCutcheon to replace Frenchy and roll with an OF of Gordon/Cain/McCutcheon. We could get 15+ wins just from our outfield alone.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
by RoyalPug on Feb 15, 2012 10:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
When you said "McClutch,"
I assumed this was a post about Frenchy. He is all things clutch. Don’t trick me.
i cannot believe what i just read....
we really have people here who think that is TOO MUCH to give up for 4 years of mccutch?…huntington’s mind would be blown if moore offered that
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 15, 2012 11:40 PM EST reply actions
Maybe from a public relations perspective
But when you break it down over their years of team control, I’d wager you’d end up with Cain and McClutcheon having about the same amount of WAR at the end of their tenures.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
The trade proposal is not McCutchen for Cain.
It is McCutchen and A-baller (probably irrelevant) for Cain, Cuthbert and Dwyer (C-Rob irrelevant) … We’ll say McCutchen and Cain put up the same WAR over the duration. But say 50-50 on Cuthbert/Dwyer panning out, and one of them might add, say, 10-15 WAR onto the trade. Pretty big swing, even if it is spitballing numbers.
I don't think it's an even remotely safe assumption to believe that Cain can match four years of McCutchen WAR in six.
I’d guess the difference is much more likely to be 5+ wins in McCutchen’s favor. While Cuthbert is well thought-of in these here parts, he is a long ways off. A lot can happen. I can’t say I have much hope in Dwyer producing much either. 10-15 WAR seems pretty bullish.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
It seems that you are likely overvaluing what Cain can potentially be.
I’d imagine most of us are hopefully ballparking Cain’s average annual WAR over his years of club control as ~2.0. McCutchen is coming off a 5.7 WAR 2011, with 3.5 and 3.7 WAR in a partial 2009 and a full 2010. Cain is six months older than McCutchen so theoretically they’re both at or near their peak. McCutchen is a star. We hope Cain can be league average. Four years of McCutchen, a PROVEN COMMODITY, is likely to outweigh six of Cain, probably considerably.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
cains absolute ceiling over the next 6 is probably mccutch's average projection over the next 4
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah,
which we both agree is not likely to happen
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
What do anonymous scouts say?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 17, 2012 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
Honestly I think giving Cain 2 WAR/year
is selling him way short. There is a big positional adjustment for CF’s.
Take a look at Cameron Maybin’s slash line: .264/.323/.393 Thats not good. Cain will almost assuredly hit better than that, probably close to his 2010 line of: .306/.348/.415
Maybin was worth 4.7 WAR. I think that’s about what Cain could average if he is an above average defender.
Compared to B.J. Upton who had a .760 OPS, which is close to Cain: 4.1 WAR. That’s what Cain should be able to do if he’s just average defensively.
The question going forward is Cain’s bat against McCutcheon’s defense. Both guys appear to be pretty consistent offensively. If Cain actually has developed some power he could feasibly break 5 WAR. If McCutheon’s defensive improvement this season wasn’t for real, he could feasibly drop below 5 WAR.
In reality I expect Cain to be worth about 4.5 Wins/year and McCutcheon to be worth 5.5 Wins/Year.
Over their tenures that gives us 22.5 Wins for Cain and 22 wins for McCutcheon.
And in the proposed deal you want to throw in a very good lottery ticket in Cuthbert and a decent one in Dwyer.
No thanks. I’ll keep my LorenzoCain
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
And let's not forget that McCutcheon
is going to be a lot more expensive than Cain through his arbitration years.
Dingers are sexy, and the players that hit them get a lot more money than the players that don’t.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
not if cain performs like you expect him to
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
He'll be generating a lot of that value
From positional adjustments and defense, not exactly hot items at the arbitration table.
I don’t think its unreasonable to expect him to make 4-5 million less over the course of the arbitration process.
That’s not a lot of money to be sure, but it does need to be accounted for.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
its absolutely unreasonable considering mccutch has those exact same things going for him....
the CF and the defense factor…if mccutch makes significantly more its due to him being significantly better…negating your point
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
mccutch was a better hitter at a younger age
playing in mlb versus cain in AAA
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, expecting Cain to be a 4+ win player like McCutchen is simply unreasonable
Zips 2012 projection has Cain at 259/314/370 86 OPS+ (14% below league average).
McCutchen last year was 127 OPS+
BJ Upton 115 OPS+
Maybin 103 OPS+
You can’t use Upton’s and Maybin’s triple slash lines to predict someone else’s WAR since they played half their games in two of the worst offensive environments and WAR is park adjusted.
how is lorenzo cain consistent offensively?
he’s got 180 PA in his major league career.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
Looking at all his numbers for the last 2 years
Including the minors and you can see stability.
A slight expected drop from AA to AAA
a slight expected drop from AAA to MLB
A slight increase from MLB to AAA (including a big power spike, though a lot of that is probably just the PCL doing its thing)
The numbers are all very similar and in line with what we could expect from a player like Cain.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
He was a 25-year-old in the PCL.
I like Cain and am cautiously optimistic, but we know next to nothing about him as a Major Leaguer.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 3:29 AM EST up reply actions
And keep in mind that PCL was a joke-level hitters park, even by its own standards, in 2011
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 18, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
What would be your top offer?
I’m curious if this could be a mid season upgrade…with a contract extension
by whataboutbilly? on Feb 16, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
McCutchen is an established star w/4 cost controlled years remaining
It would take multiple top prospects to acquire him. Myers + Monty, etc. I’ll pass.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 AM EST reply actions
But
C-Rob won the Texas League Triple Crown
Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so.-Bertrand Russell
by Dr. van Strijcker on Feb 16, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe that's exactly why we SHOULD trade for him
Spend some of that “currency of baseball”.
McCutchen is an established star w/4 cost controlled years remaining
My biggest qualm, more than giving up Myers/Monty/Odorizzi/Cuthbert, would be whether he can stay in CF for all four of those years. Locking down CF with a star could be worth giving up 3 or 4 big name prospects; getting a very good COF (when we already have one in AG) would not.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 16, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
jesus...i dunno....that absolutely decimates our system....
i dont think i could do that no matter how good mccutch is
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
I guess you forgot:
Because Go For It
(but really, I think the first hurdle of a trade’s real-life plausibility is whether we even would consider doing it – if we think “sure, we’d totally do that”, then it’s probably not something plausible. not that we all don’t know this already, just commenting on it.)
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 16, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not quite ready to eviscerate our minor league system for one player
Especially when we’re not talking about an area of major need. Certainly he’d be a big upgrade in CF (I don’t see Cain as a future good player, more like a future averagish player), but what we really need is SP’s.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 16, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
The Pirates' GM also said
that the deal would have to be a “drastic overpay” and “organization altering”.
Yeah, Huntington is no slouch.
I’ve been very impressed by what he’s been doing in Pittsburgh, even if the results aren’t quite there. I don’t think he’s trading McCutchen for less than Myers, Odorizzi, Cuthbert, and a C prospect with upside. If it were the package above, I wouldn’t hesitate, but that package is a pipe dream.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
what if
you can get mccutch then get two years of free agency in a contract so he’s only here one less year than myers would be?
by whataboutbilly? on Feb 16, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
thatd make it more doable....mccutch is very unlikely to do it though
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
does the non boras factor make mccutchen more valuable than Myers?
by whataboutbilly? on Feb 16, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
myers isnt boras either...
and mccutch has given no indication that he’s willing to give a substantial discount on a long term deal
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
And while we're talking four years of McCutchen,
we’re talking 6+ years of Myers while getting all of the league-minimum seasons.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
ya
but would you do it? with a two year extension?
by whataboutbilly? on Feb 16, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Eh, maybe it's just her from FNL
but she doesn’t seem like she’d be that much fun.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
That may be
But the only time my wife ever saw someone on TV while walking through the room, stopped and said, “Wow, she’s pretty,” it was because of Minka. Beyond even jealousy, just respect.
If she is unpleasant, it would nice to say that in retrospect. You know, from experience.
Very good point.
If she is unpleasant, it would nice to say that in retrospect. You know, from experience.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
If money were a non-factor, probably.
It’s not though, and those two years at the end come at a time when the Royals would be less likely to be able to afford that contract as it’s getting toward the end of the arb years for Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, et al.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 17, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
Best argument yet
against making this trade.
They really need to space these guys out.
Nick Swisher is hands^h^h^h^h^h delicious.
This can't be assumed.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
we wouldnt need to trade for mccutch....
he’d just wish for strasburg, moore and harper and we’d be all good
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
FYP
he’d just wish forstrasburgFrenchy,mooreFrenchy, andharperFrenchy and we’d beall goodscrewed.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 16, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
What this trade needs is some
Yuni.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 16, 2012 2:05 PM EST reply actions
The Answer To
All questions
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 17, 2012 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
The only offer I'd be agreeable to
Is one that included Francoeur and dumping all of his contract.
Which won’t happen.
So no. No thank you. But no all the same.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
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