With KC's Starters, The Bullpen Needs To Be Deep

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 16, 2012 10:52 AM EST

Kansas City's starters were not able to throw late into games last year. They were tied for 12th in the AL with Boston at 5.8 IP/GS (Baltimore was worst at 5.4). Tampa on the other hand averaged 6.5 IP/GS. This difference is huge when looked at over the course of a season. With the average AL game going 8.9 innings, Kansas City will would need their bullpen to throw 3.1 innings and the Rays only 2.3. Over the course of the season, this difference works out to be a difference of 130 innings or over 14 full games.

To put it another way, the bullpen would need to throw 502.2 innings. With a 7 pitcher bullpen, that works at to ~72 IP per pitcher. With a 8 person bullpen, it works out to ~63 IP. Dave Eiland better have the bullpen ready to go.

Going into 2012, the situation doesn't look to be any better than last year, especially with the addition of Jonathan Sanchez. Here is a look at the IP/GS for the most likely starters and some other samples for reference:

	2011			2010			2009
Name	IP	GS	IP/GS	IP	GS	IP/GS	IP	GS	IP/GS
Bruce Chen	155	25	6.2	131	23	5.7	48	9	5.3
Luke Hochevar	198	31	6.4	100	17	5.9	143	25	5.7
Jonathan Sanchez	101.3	19	5.3	193	33	5.8	159.3	29	5.5
Felipe Paulino	120.3	20	6.0	86	14	6.1	87	17	5.1
Danny Duffy	105.3	20	5.3	-	-	-	-	-	-

Kansas City	943	162	5.8	949	162	5.9	949	162	5.9
AL	13875.7	2268	6.1	13730.7	2268	6.1	13189.7	2270	5.8
ZacKKKKKKKK	171.7	28	6.1	220	33	6.7	229.3	33	6.9

Sanchez has not averaged throwing 6 innings in the NL in any season over the last 3 years, not alone in the AL. I think he is going to be a frustrating pitcher to watch when he is constantly pulled before the end of the 6th inning.

By using a weighted average of the 5 pitcher's previous 3 season and assuming they will start all 162 games (not going to happen), the average IP/GS works out to be 5.8. Just the same as last year. This season, Fans again should be ready to see this scene quite a bit early on during the game:

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Super Bullpen FTW

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 AM EST reply actions

I see lots of 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K lines in the near future

Sanchez has not averaged throwing 6 innings in the NL in any season over the last 3 years, not alone in the AL. I think he is going to be a frustrating pitcher to watch when he is constantly pulled before the end of the 6th inning.

Right here is the downside to being one of the league leaders in both K rate and BB rate. Duffy and Sanchez need to be split up in the rotations just to give the bullpen a little extra rest.

Blake Wood might suddenly take a more important role in the bullpen, as he is the leading candidate to be the bridge guy to take over in the 6th (or 5th) and go an inning plus in order to get the ball to Holland and Broxton. Wood is not good enough to pitch consistently in high leverage situations, but he is not bad in mid-leverage situations as he can miss some bats, induce groundballs, and hold his own against lefties so he can go longer than a few hitters at a time.

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2012 11:56 AM EST reply actions

I feel like that exact...

…pitching line is what we saw from Duffy all last year. Clearly the powers that be are expecting improvement from him at least, or else they wouldn’t have added Duffy Redux to the rotation.- TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Feb 16, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Duffy's 2011 pitching line would need to knock off 1/3 IP and 1 K

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

I Expect Duffy

To improve. If he doesn’t, he needs to be replaced.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 16, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Duffy's minor league track records suggest he should improve his walk rate somewhat

If not, he should make a pretty good reliever

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

@@@@ man Bruce Chen sucks!!!! @@@@

by DickHowser4ever on Feb 16, 2012 12:01 PM EST reply actions

but has more wins in the last two years than any other royals pitcher

but you probably don’t like winning

let’s have those huge stats

by Chiefshero on Feb 16, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 17, 2012 12:22 AM EST up reply actions

There goes the neighborhood

by thelaundry on Feb 17, 2012 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

i like winning as much as Mr. Sheen does, but a win with Chen on the mound is not 100% do to Chen

He gets credit for pitching well and helping to keep the team in the game, but credit must also go to the offense for scoring runs, and the defense for making plays.

IMO that’s why judging a pitchers value based on number of ‘wins’ is not a great way to do things.

by DickHowser4ever on Feb 17, 2012 8:22 AM EST up reply actions

yes but a pitcher needs intangibles

how he can become cohesive or help the rest of the team

otherwise we have paulino who has good stats but the rest of the team looks like they don’t give a shit

by Chiefshero on Feb 18, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions

Jump Ball!

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 19, 2012 3:06 AM EST up reply actions

Looking at pitcher's innings based on NL stats can be misleading...

Think about it. Come the 6th inning, the pitcher may be up for the 2nd or even 3rd time. In a close game, they’re going to get pulled. If the game is out of hand, they’re going to get pulled.

To judge Sanchez purely based on NL innings could be very misleading.

I don’t disagree that the bullpen is going to be strained (again!) this year, but I think we’ll actually see that number closer to 6-6.2 innings based upon who is in the rotation. And if not, I think the bullpen is good enough to bridge (would like to see someone other than Wood as a long reliever… but I’ve seen worse — I live in DC, so think Nationals…) to get to Holland/Broxton/Soria-cutioner.

by KC in DC on Feb 16, 2012 12:02 PM EST reply actions

average NL starter lasted 6.0 IP last year

average AL starter lasted 6.1 IP

Unless Crow is not being converted into a starter, there is not really a better alternative than Wood. Coleman is a ROOGY, so he should not face more than a few batters at a time except in low leverage situations (and is better used for spotting against good right-handed hitters in mid to high leverage situations), and Wood is a step above the other candidates.

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

Herrera?

by Bronzillo on Feb 16, 2012 9:27 PM EST up reply actions

Probably a good choice, but he's very unlikely to make the 25-man roster

Maybe when he eventually makes it to KC.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 17, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

So not that many "quality starts"?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 16, 2012 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Would have loved the Royals to pick up a solid "innings eater"

if they weren’t going to get a front of the rotation type. Somebody available like Guthrie or Brett Myers who regularly go deep into games. They provide additional value with the benefit of a well rested pen, cost little to acquire and are not long term commitments.

by ElChupanibre on Feb 16, 2012 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

guthrie who costs $9 million and two decent major league pieces to acquire?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

I still don't get that trade from either side.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 16, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

baltimore saved a bunch of money...

and allegedly they received no offers for guthrie that involved younger players or prospects…so, if thats true, they were really left with no choice.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

baltimore didn't save any money

Hammel and Lindstrom cost 8.55MM.

by ElChupanibre on Feb 16, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

eww...i thought they were cheaper than that....

nm then…still makes no sense for either team

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

Baltimore got two roster spots filled isntead of one

Both those guys are controlled for two years instead of one. I thought it was a fine move for them, they’re just in a terrible situation residing in the AL East.

by BeauJackson on Feb 16, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

We did

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 16, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

I imagine that not having to hit

Will increase Sanchez’s IP per start ratio.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Feb 16, 2012 12:17 PM EST reply actions

not really -- the difference in IP/GS between the AL and NL is only 0.1

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

That might not tell the whole story

Off the top of my head, I can think of a few more factors that would impact a starter’s IP in the AL vs NL:

Reasons to think Sanchez might average more innings with Royals:

-won’t be pulled for a pinch hitter
-AL Central weaker than NL West

Reasons to think Sanchez might average fewer innings:

won’t face pitchers
-AL hitters stronger than NL hitters overall? (Not really sure-the AL seems better, but it seems to me that a lot of the edge is in pitching now)

by kcdc1 on Feb 16, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Those weren’t supposed to be striked out and SB Nation still doesn’t allow editing

by kcdc1 on Feb 16, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

im kinda glad that there's no editing allowed...

and what does everyone do that accidentally strikes through shit…ive never had it happen to me

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

-strikethrough-, 2 negative signs next to letters.

~~strikethrough~~

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 16, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

i c

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 16, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

The NL West may be stronger overall - even that's a question.

But NL West offenses are quite a bit worse, aside from the DH.

by hawkinscm87 on Feb 16, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Sanchez was at 5.3 IP/GS last year

His team was 6.2 IP/GS against the same competition and under the same DH rules.

The NL West was 6.1 IP/GS.

The AL Central was 6.0 IP/GS.

I am not seeing any reason why the switch in league by itself would suggest any real increase (or decrease) in his innings pitched per start.

NL pitchers sometimes get pulled for a pinch hitter, but they sometimes get left in to face an extra batter or two when the pitcher is due up next inning. I would think they pretty much cancel each other out.

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

To put it another way, the bullpen would need to throw 502.2 innings.

So all Ned needs is Collins and then maybe 1-2 more guys to throw the other 2.2 innings? Looks like we’ll have plenty of space on the roster for pinch hitters and runners.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 16, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions

Don't forget about Hochevar

Hochevar has improved his IP/game the last three years.

2009: 5.7
2010: 5.9
2011: 6.4

People get annoyed at Hochevar’s inability to live up to his draft pick, but he has gotten steadily better. Take a look at his xFIP too:

2009: 4.29
2010: 4.09
2011: 4.05

I really think that Hochevar will be a 200 IP, low 4 ERA workhorse for the Royals next year. Especially if the new pitching coach realizes that the guy can be a very good strikeout pitcher.

by Yodazilla on Feb 16, 2012 2:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs