Gut Response: Are the Royals Better than the Twins?
by Freneau on Feb 19, 2012 2:03 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
Email
PrintThis series is meant to get us to start thinking about the 2012 by way of their divisional rivals. How good are the Royals in relation to their opponents. Today's questions: Are the Royals better than the Twins?
Was 2011 the beginning of the end for the Twins, or were they simply an "everything went wrong" team? With elite talents like Mauer and Morneau and their ability to generate generic mediocre pitching, the Twins have been consistently OK for the last decade. Well, almost. They've had blips before. In 2007, they dropped down to 79 wins. In 2005, they fell to 83 wins. So they've bounced back before.Twins in a box: 2011 record: 63-99. Additions: Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Josh Willingham, Joel Zumaya. Losses: Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Anyone Who Liked Joe Mauer's Contract
It must be said:
- Won 94 games in 2010, 87 games in 2009. Went 10-8 against the Royals last season.
- Joe Mauer had 333 PAs in 2010, Justin Morneau had 288.
- Losses should also partially include Jim Thome and Delmon Young, who were traded in-season.
60 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think the Royals are better than the Twins, but I don't think the gap is as big as some think it is.
Scott Baker is an extremely underrated pitcher.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Feb 18, 2012 3:04 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
He is slightly above average.
So, if people are rating him as below average, then he is indeed underrated.
I don't think many people would bring up Scott Baker's name when talking about above-average starting pitchers.
I’d say he’s better than slightly above average, given his peripherals.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Feb 18, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If Maurer and Morneau are heatly,
then is is close. Otherwise, I think we are better.
Put a fork in the Twins, they are done.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Feb 18, 2012 4:11 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Not only do I think Mauer will ever be healthy again,
it seems as though that ballpark is a big problem for them. Even before Mauer’s injuries I think I remember reading somewhere that he had only hit 5 HR at home the year the park opened. I may be way off, but I think they’re done.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 18, 2012 4:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Never be healthy again...
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 18, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
He only hit one at home in 2010.
That inside out swing of his that resulted in opposite field HRs in the Dome results in balls dying on the warning track in Target Field. That contract they gave him will hamstring that team for years. Plus Mauer is always good for a one month stint on the DL every season. I’ll also believe Morneau is completely healthy when I see it myself. If the Royals don’t finish ahead of the Twins I’ll be severely disappointed.
by ghostofmunicipalstadium on Feb 18, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I'd thought.
I knew it had really taken the potency out of his offense.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 20, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
They don't really seem scary at all.
Injury prone, thin, and they didn’t improve that much in the offseason. I think they are in trouble.
If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down
-Gin Blossoms
by royaldaddy on Feb 18, 2012 4:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I don't really like any aspect of their roster for this season.
I think Mauer will be healthy again, but I doubt he will ever get back to where he was in 2008-2009. I think the bigger concern is Morneau. He was on his way to an MVP season in 2010 before he was injured. Last year he look timid, tentative, and somewhat lost at the plate.
And past those two, Scott Baker? And then…….yeah.
We should trade for Vance Worley.
by JKWard on Feb 18, 2012 5:08 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I've had 2 concussions before...
they take a lot of time to readjust for…my problem with Morneau wouldn’t be that his concussions are lingering, because I think he only had the 1, but rather the time off…I never thought that Morneau was that great of a player…
But granted, I am going eye test here. I thought Morneau looked slow pre-concussion and was a guy that IMO benefited a huge amount from being a left-handed hitter, statheads be damned. But I still think he has a good shot at being above average in his continued recovery if he can gain his aggressiveness back, but I don’t see it like he turns into a superstar again.
Mauer on the other hand, should have a pretty good shot to readjust and become a magnificent hitter again if he stays away from the catcher role. But that contract, my lands.
I am the one who knocks.
Morneau has a long history of concussions
He grew up playing hockey. I believe he’s had two as a major leaguer.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 18, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
I've had at least four or five concussions
thought it’s been years I don’t think they’ve
by OnixConcepcion on Feb 18, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
My unbiased opinion is "No."
…well, maybe…
We’ll see…
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 18, 2012 7:19 PM EST reply actions
Losses and Additions by fWAR:
LOSSES = 4.5
Nathan: 0.0
Cuddyer: 3.1
Kubel: 1.1
Repko: 0.0
Tolbert: -0.5
Thome: 0.8
Young: 0.3
Mijares: -0.3 (yaaaay, Royals!)
ADDITIONS = 9.1 (by cancelling the negative WAR from last year)
Doumit: 1.8 (and Mauer moves off C)
Carroll: 2.2 (legit big upgrade from SS WAR of -2.0 last year)
Wilmingham: 2.1 (legit upgrade over LF -0.3)
Zumaya: 1.0
I know WAR doesn’t predict future WAR, but as far as immediate personnel moves go, the team would have had a 4.6 higher WAR last season. A 25.4 total fWAR. If you use the equation 45.2 + 0.93(fWAR), you need a 43 total fWAR to win 85 games. So, if DH Mauer and Morneau each post a 9 WAR, they could win the division.
Last year, the Royals team fWAR was 39.1. Expect a drop-off in the OF, some progress in the IF, maybe the Royals are better, maybe they’re worse, but they shouldn’t drop off terribly unless injuries galore befall them.
I’m no mathemagician, but 39 is more than 26.
THUS, I would guess the Twins would need to see big bouncebacks from a lot of players, especially the M&M boys (in the neighborhood of 5-7 WAR each) to be “Royals good.” But that isn’t gut. My gut says the Twins win 73. Of course, according to my gut, that is about 30 less than the Royals.
by dejezeus on Feb 18, 2012 8:12 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Their grit and pixie dust has run out
I see them as a 90 loss team. Only the Os are worse in the league.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2012 8:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
have you looked at the a's roster?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2012 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah...Cespedes.
First ever 45 WAR player. Gonna take the West.
thats a fun move for them though...
they made their team watchable for 9 million a year…i have a feeling that he’s going to succeed spectacularly or fail spectacularly….no middle ground
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the A's will be better than people think
They’ll take some random pitchers and make them look like All-Stars .
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
and the opponents random pitchers will look like cy young
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
They'll finish every game 0-0
0-0-162 = .500 record.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think losing Kubel and Cuddyer is really going to hurt them
Not just because they are good players but because they were a good fit for the twins
Maybe I Just
Notice it more with KU, but we seem to miss the first FT an a 2 shot foul an annoying amount of the time. Nothing good can happen on the dead ball, we just missed an opportunity to score with the clock stopped.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Oops, Wrong Site
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 18, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
I'm Multi-Tasking
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 18, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
I've had at least four or five concussions
though it’s been years I don’t think they’ve
by OnixConcepcion on Feb 18, 2012 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
I hope so...
I’ve never wanted to start taking random swings at people as much as I did at a Twins/Royals game at the K a couple years ago. This includes my wife, a Twins fan.
There are literally DOZENS of us!
by Tracer Bullet 82 on Feb 18, 2012 8:53 PM EST reply actions
It depends, the twins look good on paper
but reality is a bitch. The same goes with the royals
The Reality Bitch
Strikes again.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 19, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
Arrowhead Pride is over there...
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 19, 2012 8:33 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions 2 recs
I'm abstaining,
as I don’t know.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
Too much of the Twins' sucking was reliant upon injuries.
If Liriano and Baker make 30+ starts and Pavano is solid, the Twins rotation is clearly better than the Royals’. If they get 130+ starts from Morneau, Span, and Mauer, the Royals could be SOL. From Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Morneau, Mauer, and Span, they got 10.4 fWAR. I wouldn’t be willing to wager serious money on them repeating that dismal feat in 2012.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 19, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
you're relying too much on those injury prone guys not getting injured again...
i have no reason to believe that mauer, morneau and liriano will play anything close to a full season
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 20, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not relying upon anything.
I’m pretty sure I said that I don’t know who’s better, hence the abstinence. Assuming the Royals are better relies largely upon injury prone players getting injured, which is as foolhardy as hoping they stay healthy. I don’t think either can be counted upon, therefore I don’t feel like I can say that one is better than the other.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 20, 2012 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
Span Hasn't Had
A good season since 2009. His bat plays in CF, but not really in LF. Are they committed to Revere in CF?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
The Twins are a smoking wreck
Morneau won’t play again and Mauer will never be as valuable again as he was. They don’t have much of a crop of young players. They might win 70. The Royals will win at least 78.
I had, I believe, three concussions as a kid: hit my head on a rock playing pickup tackle football, got knocked over backwards at hockey practice and banged the back of my head, and got a hurled rock between the eyes in a sixth-grade fight. I don’t think they made me any stupider.
Morneau, though, might be this generation’s Tony Conigliaro.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
you shouldnt play tackle football where rocks are located. and, i didnt think people threw rocks at people in fights except for in movies…learn something new every day
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not a doctor
but I think it’d have to be Alex Gordon throwing a pretty sizeable rock to give someone a concussion.
I think a rock just doesn’t have enough momentum to get the head moving fast enough to cause a concussion. Usually you need a huge weight hitting the body or a fall combined with a whip motion that transfers extra energy into the head before impact.
There happened to be this one rock in Vinny Grillo's front yard
above ground, and I happened to get tackled hard and hit my head on it. Everything went green. Then I was OK after a few minutes.
As for the rock in the head, that was this little snot named Robbie Altneu who liked to get other people to fight each other. I went after him for talking bad about me to other people, trying to piss them off against me, and he didn’t have the guts for a stand-up fight, so he clocked me with a (baseball-sized?) rock from about five yards. Knocked me out, I think. Don’t worry, he eventually got what he had coming, both socially and physically. Once he tried to pop me when I had my back to a wall and I dodged and he broke his hand. That was hilarious. (It was biology class and the teacher was gone and it seemed like a good time for Robbie to eat some crayfish guts, which was what we were dissecting. That made him mad.)
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
by Juancho on Feb 19, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
At least 78 W for the Royals?
78 is your low number? Really?
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 5:42 AM EST up reply actions
No, it's my wild-ass guess number
It wouldn’t be out of line with last year’s Pythagorean record, and none of the rest of the division will be any good but Detroit. The team is clearly better now than it was going into 2011.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
Yeah I saw the Pythagorean record
Good luck with that. With regards to 2011, I’d expect more of the same this season. I think progression of the youngsters and regression of guys like Chen and Francoeur, loss of Melky will about even itself out. I think 78 is reachable, but if I’m going to say at least, I’d go with at least 72, which is still better than last season. 78 is just too optimistic to me.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
The Bill James and Zips projections looked pretty good, though I understand how questionable they are. Nobody was under an 85 OPS+, not the greatest tool but not the worst, which means we can hope there’s not going to be one shitty TPJesque or Hosayesque player dragging the whole team down.
The lineup and bullpen look good. The rotation doesn’t. Winning 78 is going to require pretty good performances from three of the starters and from most of the bullpen.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
yeah, it's the rotation that's getting me the most with the prediction.
Chen put up one of the best seasons of his career, so I question whether or not he can win 12 games again.
Sanchez was a hit or a miss in the NL. I like him a lot, though, but I think there might be a rough transition.
Hochevar… meh. Potential, but doesn’t look too promising.
Am I missing anyone important? I feel like there’s one more guy worth mentioning.
Either way, good luck. I would love for the Royals to grab 78 W if they get a large portion of that against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Paulino And Duffy
Both have potential for improvement, particularly Duffy. In our dream world, Montgomery is ready by the ASB and Sanchez pitches well enough to trade before the deadline.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
I thought at first glance you'd said "Pancho and Lefty"
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
it's the preseason number
already set by Vegas for over-under season wins. 78 1/2, sometime last week. I don’t know shit (as everyone has already realized) but I agree with Nick Wright … I think it’s a perfect number to call. I would follow Scott’s (NYRoyal) call more faithfully though, if he advised me to take the under, I’d do it.
[first post of the 2012 season from a three season RR lurker]
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
Damn, I was closer than I thought
The Vegas line is always reasonable, since it’s based on making money. They want half to bet over and half to bet under and to make their cash collecting the 10% vigorish. My WAG was not too awful, at least not out of line with other predictions and projections.
"That fucking fucker of a general swears too fucking much." --Unnamed soldier about Gen. George Patton, 1943
The Twins are really bad
before I factor in Morneaus migraines and Mauer 28 homers were a mirage – easily worse team in league last year lost players picked up who? not even fundamentally sound and their staff looks like old Royals Baker is decent then some ings eaters
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Royals Review
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
