Let Us Calmly Discuss Jeff Francoeur's Performance in 2012

by Freneau on Feb 20, 2012 10:36 PM EST in Kansas City Royals News

So everything else aside, how will he play?

Relevant numbers:

Career line: .270/.313/.433. Average brWAR 0.9, fWAR 1.6
Career from 2005-2010: .268/.310/.425. Average bwWAR 0.6, fWAR 1.3
2011: .285/.329/.476. brWAR 3.7, fWAR 2.9

Thanks to a) a bounceback season b) endless playing time and c) the relative decline in offense since the middle of the last decade, 2011 was Francoeur's most valuable season at the plate of his career. Per at bat, only his 70 games in 2005 (.370 wOBA) were better. The truth is, from 50,000 feet he doesn't really seem to have gotten more than marginally more patient, as his 5.6% walk rate was actually down from many of his prior seasons and right in line with where he's always been, but the power that he flashed early in his career returned. Line drives were slightly up and his speed score -- perhaps slimming down helped -- improved.

The splits reveal a familiar Francoeur story. He crushed left-handed pitching, posting a .570 SLG and a .934 OPS against southpaws in 168 PAs. Against righties, he wasn't as good, but he wasn't terrible either, at .279/.318/.445. His career OBP/SLG against righties, including 2011, is .300/.410. This is, overall, encouraging, because he hit better against both handed-pitchers, while maintaining his general trend as a hitter.

With his low walk numbers, Francoeur's a guy who needs to hit .280 something to help you. Much lower, and we're inching close to simply untenable OBP numbers. Though again, the general decline in offense thanks to ~~the post-steroid era~~ the self-fulfilling prophecy of every team playing their own Alcides Escobar at two positions has helped ease the pain.

Like fellow Royal outfielder Alex Gordon, Francoeur was able to parlay acceptable range with a strong arm into a useful defensive package. And like Gordon, I like the overall product, but feel that it is also a few ticks shy of sliding down into neutral or even negative category. But that might not happen in 2012.

So has Francoeur hit a new level as a hitter? Could he hit even better in 2012? He'll be 28 next season, so we can't rule it out. Perhaps it's merely something I've talked myself into, but I can't help but feeling Francoeur has more room to backslide than he has room to grow. A career year would feature the almost by necessity and axiomatic high/lucky BABIP and the additional power. So that gets us up to something like .300/.340/.500? Maybe a bit more. After last season, even a Francoeur agnostic would have to admit that could happen. The flip side is what was mentioned above, the BA falls a bit, and Francoeur gets himself out a few extra times trying to produce the doubles he's missed, and we end up in that .260/.310/.410 zone. This is very un-saber of me, but Francoeur strikes me as a player who really needs to have a good April. You want Francoeur playing confidently as opposed to chasing lost hits up there. But yikes, you dumb writer, isn't that really everyone?

So, Francoeur in 2012...

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Comments

I don't think his play from last year is sustainable

I think he can still be an slightly above average 5 hitter and RF. But that Walk Rate is troubling and if it lowers even more he’s going to see everything go back down.

Don't you ever play GM- Lee "Touch of Gray" Judge

by tiquanunderwear on Feb 20, 2012 10:43 PM EST reply actions

278/322/455...halfway between his career numbers and his 2011 numbers....

sounds about right to me…and very acceptable given his solid defense

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 20, 2012 10:43 PM EST reply actions

I agree with your projection.

I imagine he will be around 2.2-2.5 WAR, making him a very average RF. All things considered, I could live with that.

by Connor Moylan on Feb 20, 2012 11:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

pessimism is much more fun

I think 2.25 WAR would be his ceiling. Like Freneau said, I feel he has much more room to fall than to improve.

by mmiller9 on Feb 20, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions

why would his ceiling be significantly lower than his performance last year....

he’s smack dab at the peak of the aging curve

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 21, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions

He’s right around the peak of the hitting aging curve. He’s at least a couple years past the peak of the WAR aging curve.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions

After having seen the projections, I'll take the under

Weighted average of Pecota, Zips and Cairo = .270/.313/.422. With significantly fewer base runners thrown out and certainly not a step faster, I see him as a below average player in 2012.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 20, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure the projection systems will be accurate for Francoeur

He’s a bit of an odd case, and projection systems don’t really project well for odd cases. Maybe it’s just optimism speaking here, but Francoeur showed hitting skills early in his career and last year—I think it is entirely possible that this is the real Francoeur. But I guess we’ll see come April.

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 9:06 AM EST up reply actions

Certainly he may well do much better or much worse than his projections. Certainly most of his career has been feast or famine. I don’t know that there is good reason to expect the “feast” to be the real Francoeur.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

I don't even expect him to be 'feast'

I just expect solid performance. 2.5 WAR or so.

However, I think if he isn’t solid he will be legitimately bad. So…there’s that.

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

I'm Not Too

Worried about 2012; it’s 2013 that could be a killer.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 20, 2012 11:22 PM EST reply actions

i dont see much reason to be more concerned about him falling off a cliff in 2013 moreso than 2012....

it’s not like he’ll be old…and he’ll be playing for another big contract

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 20, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

He’ll be playing for another big contract, unless Moore has already extended him, which is quite possible.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 20, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

GAH!

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 20, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

If they can't extend Gordon, this becomes more and more possible/likely

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 20, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

please dont talk about this until it happens....

dealing with the reality of it is one thing, having to dread the possibility for 2 years is another

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 21, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions

When Dayton Moore is your favorite team’s GM, dreading the real possibility that he’ll do this or that stupid thing just comes with the territory.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions

Stupid Territory; Better

Band name ot album title? Discuss.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions

good question.

I’ll say better album title. Just strikes me that way. “Nicely packed in Panties,” or ’Mood Elevators also Go Down". Two titles from friends who fuck around playing band have kicked around for album titles.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 21, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions

I like it as an album name for my dream band

The Urine Samples

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 21, 2012 9:39 AM EST up reply actions

Dayton Moore unauthorized biography title

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions

It will take on a certain inevitability, just like KC signing Freedom Fries in the first place

it’s a sad fucking destiny. The realization hit me like a 9-3 put out the second I read it.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 21, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

NY, are you reading the tea leaves and getting skeptical of a Gordo extension?

IIRC, you thought it prob made sense for both sides to sit tight?

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 21, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions

I really can only guess as to whether the Gordon extension will happen. Certainly that it didn’t get done before Gordon’s arbitration settlement isn’t a good sign, but that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily unlikely to happen. I’m definitely less optimistic than I was a month ago. Right now, I guess I’d put it at 50/50, but none of us really has any idea.

It makes sense for the Royals to extend him right now, but only if they can get a price that makes sense. 4/40 would work nicely for me. Who knows how high they’re willing to go. What is in Gordon’s best interest depends on whether he wants surety and security for the next approx. 4 years, or whether he’d like to gamble a little on a really huge multi-year deal two years from now. I could see many players choosing to wait for free agency. No idea what Gordon is thinking.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

I want to see one more year of Gordon playing well before we commit to that kind of contract

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Feb 21, 2012 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

Well, we won't.

I put his resigning at 30%. Less as the season goes on.

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 6:32 AM EST up reply actions

I hope they get it done,

but I think that they need to do it by the end of camp or he’ll be traded later in the year especially if Myers is raking. The best scenario obviously would be that Frenchy starts out hot, Gordon signs a deal and Myers gets promoted meaning that Frenchy is dealt. I don’t give a shit how many t-shirts they’ve already printed for the Frenchy Quarter.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 21, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

Think Of The

Bobbleheads!

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 9:59 AM EST up reply actions

Frenchy doesn't have any trade value.

One year of Gordon, if he performs like he did last year, will net a nice prospect or two. I just think that the likelyhood that the Royals will resign him has plummeted and isn’t looking anywhere near likely.

If he’s not signed by the start of the year, I’ll give it a 10% chance. 5% at the break.

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

I agree.

and is the F.O. so sure about Moustakas and Hosmer, that the Royals may never need another LH bat, ever? This line-up and organization is getting very right-heavy.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Feb 21, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

After one more year of Gordon playing, 4/40 would be off the table. He’s price would skyrocket and he probably wouldn’t be willing to sign a long-term deal at all.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

Yep.

The more I think about it the $80M figure that they tossed around might really be what he has in mind. Another year like last year and might might just get it from the Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, etc…

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 21, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

yeah, I think the window for the Royals to get a favorable contract is closing...

they were going to get one, they’d have had to have taken the gamble that Gordon would continue to improve before he actually did it. Now, I think it favors Gordon to see if he can do it again and pull a Crawford/Werth type deal.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Feb 21, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

See My Scenario

Below.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

i think he'll regress some

no reason, other than pulling something out of my ass…i think his 2011 was unsustainable, but at the same time i think that he probably has matured some as a hitter and seitzer has been able to reach him, at least a little.

i would consider it a win if his WAR (or is WAR gauche these days, now it’s fxwfipWAR) is in line with his contract.

Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."

--Albert Einstein

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Feb 20, 2012 11:41 PM EST reply actions

not sure

Logic tells me that he’ll regress. But my gut tells me that he’s enjoying the low-pressure fame that he gets from playing in KC, and that he’ll repeat his good 2011.

by Loose Seal on Feb 20, 2012 11:59 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions

I think it's clear

Frenchy is the next George Brett.

by LaFLamme on Feb 21, 2012 1:53 AM EST reply actions

Hemmoroids on the Horizon?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 21, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

We needed to trade two of our outfielders this offseason

and possibly all three

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Feb 21, 2012 3:12 AM EST reply actions

Rebuilding again already? Or still rebuilding?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

If Gordon Won't

Sign a reasonable extension, I say play him for 2 years and let him go FA. If 2013 is our year, that will be perfect. Francoeur will be fine in RF this season, and if Myers looks ready in 2013, move Francoeur either in the off season or at the deadline in 2013. We will have gotten the best from both Gordon and Francoeur. With some luck, we’ll have Myers, Cain and Starling by mid-2014. Do we still get a compensation pick for Gordon going FA?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

Uh

With some luck there will be

Gordon-Starling-Myers

in 2014. If you’re projecting based on luck, might as well go all in.

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 10:48 AM EST up reply actions

I'm Going For

The best case scenario if Gordon goes FA after 2013. I guess we could sign him as a FA, but is he and the team are successful in 2013, he’ll probably get a huge long term deal from someone. I wouldn’t want to see us go 5/100M for a 30 year old LF. And yes, Bubba probably will be nowhere near ready, but he could be.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

I believe if you offer arb at 12.5M or above you get a comp pick

something like that

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 21, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

That Should Be

Easy enough to do, and I’d be happy if he took it.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

Don't love that method of determining comp picks,

but it’s better than the previous one – at least it has to be a valuable player leaving, and valuable as determined by the market.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 21, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

Does it even matter?

The world’s ending this year anyway.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 21, 2012 3:54 AM EST reply actions

Maybe that's why Rany wants the Royals to go all in

A patient came in with back acne arranged as text that proves the Mayan prophecy is true, and Rany decided he would write whatever it took to see the Royals play winning baseball one more time before the earth cracks and blood fills the streets.

by thelaundry on Feb 21, 2012 4:39 AM EST up reply actions

what font was it printed in?

by Bronzillo on Feb 21, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

Old Style Whitehead

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 21, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I think its ridiculous to judge him based on his individual metrics

When clearly his value to the team is more valuable. I predict 100 wins.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 21, 2012 9:29 AM EST reply actions

Only 100?

You forget we have the Shortstop Jesus and the Savior himself, Eric Hosmer.

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

I think it's a cop out and sheer laziness that Will can't even throw out a nut tap prediction.

What a waste of our collective time

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 21, 2012 9:45 AM EST reply actions

Also glory hogging

by kcdc1 on Feb 21, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Look.

I’m just sticking up for the guy who broke the news, ok?

by Yodazilla on Feb 21, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

Is that what a 'glory hole' is use for?

by Bronzillo on Feb 21, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

I would guess Frenchy ends up closer to his career line plus maybe 10 points of slugging

by Gopherballs on Feb 21, 2012 11:49 AM EST reply actions

If He Can

Maintain last year’s .329 OBP and slug .443, he’ll still be sub par for a RF, and his range will probably continue to deteriorate. He’ll be fine for 2012, but I hope he’s gone before the end of 2013 at the latest.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

how'd he manage 2.9 or 3.7 WAR if he was subpar in everything

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 21, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

that line would be right around average according to this...

http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/08/yankees-hitters-vs-position-averages-32769

average line for RF (.264/.336/.427)

and there’s no reason to believe his defense will be significantly worse than average

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 21, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

Average Has Value

But I’d hope for better if we’re going to compete. B-R rated his oWAR at 3.0 and his dWAR at -.3. Fangraphs shows a UZR of -8.7 and ARM of 9.3, so they like his defense a little better based on his arm. 2011 was good production for the position; I was addressing gopherballs’ guess for 2012.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 21, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW, the projection systems project him to be a below average hitting RFer (by about 20 points of OBP). Fielding is more difficult to project, but I think roughly average to a bit below average is fair, especially considering the aging curve of defense. The total package projects to be a below average total player. That is unless he “figured something out” last season, which we’ll see going forward.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

repeating the OBP may be a struggle

Frenchy’s career line is 270/313/433, 302 BABIP, 162 ISO (isolated slugging percentage), 5.0% BB%, 17.7% K%.

In 2011, he hit 285/329/476, 323 BABIP, 191 ISO, 5.6% BB%, 18.8% K%.

The bump in OBP was driven virtually completely by a bump in batting average. His walk and strikeout rates were basically the same (a marginal increase in walks was offset by a marginal increase in strikeouts), so he is not really showing any new skills there. It is not uncommon for hitters to add power at this stage, so I am more inclined to buy some bump in power, but not any other real improvement in his offensive game.

Francoeur is probably fine as a placeholder, but the fear is that this front office will treat him as a cornerstone.

by Gopherballs on Feb 21, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

Here's what I tell myself about Francouer's 2-yr deal to make me try to feel ok about it:

Francouer will likely take a step back this year, given his bounce-back year last year. So maybe the second year, 2013 is another bounce-back year, so by getting Frenchy for two years they are more assured of getting one good one? Yeah, it’s thin, but it’s all I got. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if either of Francouer’s next two years is better than last.

I’ve heard other commenters say this, and I concur, that one of the things that bothers me about the general idea of JF is DM saying that adding another starting pitcher (or two) might block a young thrower, (Montgomery, Duffy, and Crow, I suppose), who all strike me as iffy, but Francouer somehow isn’t an impediment to Myers (or Chen, where the pitchers are concerned) , who seems a more likely success, to me, than Monty, Duffy, and Crow. For me it’s another instance of the FO’s words not matching really matching their actions.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Feb 21, 2012 6:01 PM EST reply actions

Let’s say your scenario plays out and Francoeur has a down year in 2012 but a pretty good season in 2013. How do you think DM would react to that? I fear he’d again respond to a good year with another extension. The risk is high if Gordon is not extended. Then Francoeur will be 30 and two years slower.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 21, 2012 7:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions